Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

So we're stuck at 569 until Friday then?

Not necessarily. If everybody agrees on that, someone will front-run it. When the actors agree on something, the market goes into another dimension. Know something first, act, wait for others to come to the same conclusion. You need to stay ahead of the market. (So when everybody knows this also, we move into yet another dimension...)

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[Richy_T]

Done properly there's a big advantage. Since you're effectively hire-purchasing a house, you cannot ever be in negative equity. Naturally, most banks don't like the idea of shifting liability onto themselves, hence the interest-driven model prevails elsewhere.

I am sure it's not quite as simple as that. At the least the "bank" will charge extra to cover their risk. Then your house could still be worth less than you paid for it when all is done. I bet there's some hefty penalty clause for early termination too.

[Torque]

I don't expect the price to be released anytime soon, if ever. It'll probably be irrelevant for the purposes of market sentiment, that's why it is so astonishing to me that people are seriously debating this, but I won't say no to joining the fun.

Quoted for truth.  Yeah, I'm starting to seriously dislike the "Speculation" subforum because the participants want to completely ignore reality in favor of some made up fantasy.

I'll probably be leaving it behind sometime soon, as it's usefulness has almost completely run it's course for me.

<quick, run away and avoid answering this question.  Again.>  

Again? Where did I avoid answering one of your questions? I'd like to do so now, sorry if I missed it.

Edit:  Oh, and I wasn't referring to you Blitz.  I meant others on this sub that just want to flat out ignore that question, because it suits them to completely just ignore it and continue the silly debate ad nauseum.

[Parazyd]

Will the winning bidders be announced publicly?

[tarmi]

I'm still seeing a bearish wedge.

+1

[Richy_T]

I am sure it's not quite as simple as that. At the least the "bank" will charge extra to cover their risk. Then your house could still be worth less than you paid for it when all is done. I bet there's some hefty penalty clause for early termination too.

http://www.islamicawakening.com/viewarticle.php?articleID=1291

If the home-buying client later decides that he can no longer afford the rental, both the HSBC and Ahli United `ijara contracts require that he or she must guarantee to repay the cash sum initially provided by the bank to fund the purchase of the property. In those cases where the property has to be sold to achieve this, the possibility arises that, if property prices have fallen in the meantime, the sale proceeds may not be sufficient to repay the financed amount. In this case, by requiring the client to make up any shortfall to the bank, the possibility of "negative equity" arises, a position in which the client owes more to the bank than the property is worth.
Clause 6.3 (d) of the United Bank of Kuwait `ijara agreement from 1998 provides an example of the way in which banks seek to protect themselves from capital loss. Here, the bank is allowed to sell the client's property in the event of default and to subtract such amounts as are necessary from both the proceeds of sale and the on-account payments made by the client in order to protect the bank from a loss on its investment.

[oda.krell]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

It does line up with the fact that noone has been buying Bitcoins at SecondMarket for almost two months. See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

Where do you get the 2 months from?

I understand that the 2 digit changes are just some rounding errors, but what about the 3 digit entry on June 3rd?

[Cassius]

Done properly there's a big advantage. Since you're effectively hire-purchasing a house, you cannot ever be in negative equity. Naturally, most banks don't like the idea of shifting liability onto themselves, hence the interest-driven model prevails elsewhere.

I am sure it's not quite as simple as that. At the least the "bank" will charge extra to cover their risk. Then your house could still be worth less than you paid for it when all is done. I bet there's some hefty penalty clause for early termination too.

"Properly" meaning according to the spirit of the law. Ijara mortgages tend to be slightly more expensive than regular ones, in any case - unless you are foreclosed, I imagine. I don't know the details, but they're not competitive financially with standard mortgages.

[Erdogan]

Why Bitcoin’s Scoring in Argentina
Now this is the kind of news I like to read. [ ... ]

What I see is a marketing push by SecondMarket and Pantera to convince Argentinians that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation (!) and therefore they should invest in SMBIT and PBP.   Which are not doing well in the US, meh?

It is Neo & Bee for Argentina, only with marketing and muscle upped an order of magnitude.  And not managed by a small-time crook.

You conflate the 'investment opportunity to shady types' aspect with the 'additionals options through technology' one. Ignore, if you will, all of that article except for the localbitcoins aspect.

There’s no way for sure to measure the uptake of bitcoins in any country, but the evidence suggests Argentina is outpacing most. The number of traders listed on Local Bitcoins Buenos Aires is often three times that of Manhattan, for example, and the Fundacion Bitcoin Argentina is known to run the largest bitcoin meetup in the world.

You will then still (I suspect) argue that it's only a marketing ploy. I doubt that, though. If Argentinians are as cynical about promises as I got the impression they are*, no Pantera marketing push was the cause for this uptake in usage. It's more likely that the investment opportunity arose from the usage increase.


* source: Argentinian friend. Extremely skeptical of Bitcoin, though

It looks like there is uptake. Good article (but could of course be made up). Even with good progress, bitcoin will still be small when the peso hyperinflates. Only the people able and ready to act quickly can frontrun the demise of the peso.

[Cassius]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

Can someone on this subforum answer this one simple question, instead of completely ignoring it:

Q: In a closed door auction, where no one outside of it will know what the selling price was, how can Bitstamp, you, or anyone else know what the winning price was?

And don't just reply "The selling price will get leaked out" or some silly crap, as we know hearsay FUD is completely unreliable.

<quick, run away and avoid answering this question.  Again.>  

Oh, go on, I'll have a stab then.
Freedom of information request. Would take some time and may not be granted, but it's been mentioned by USMS.
Buyers may want to boast about their new purchase for one reason or another, perhaps to stabilise the market or show how clever they were to make a theoretical profit. Again, not a given but entirely possible.

[N12]

It does line up with the fact that noone has been buying Bitcoins at SecondMarket for almost two months. See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

Where do you get the 2 months from?

I understand that the 2 digit changes are just some rounding errors, but what about the 3 digit entry on June 3rd?

It wasn't meant literally, but comparatively. Barry Shillbert better do some quality shilling … perhaps his auction syndicate was a sore attempt at that?

Quoted for truth.  Yeah, I'm starting to seriously dislike the "Speculation" subforum because the participants want to completely ignore reality in favor of some made up fantasy.

Agreed, many here just seem intent to lend importance where there is none, meanwhile making up things that suit them and disregarding evidence.

[Richy_T]

Done properly there's a big advantage. Since you're effectively hire-purchasing a house, you cannot ever be in negative equity. Naturally, most banks don't like the idea of shifting liability onto themselves, hence the interest-driven model prevails elsewhere.

I am sure it's not quite as simple as that. At the least the "bank" will charge extra to cover their risk. Then your house could still be worth less than you paid for it when all is done. I bet there's some hefty penalty clause for early termination too.

"Properly" meaning according to the spirit of the law. Ijara mortgages tend to be slightly more expensive than regular ones, in any case - unless you are foreclosed, I imagine. I don't know the details, but they're not competitive financially with standard mortgages.

Seems to me like the spirit of the law is already pretty heavily subverted just by making a profit from lending money. You can dress it up how you like but it's all the same when you peek under the covers. What there appears to be is a heavy effort to conform to the letter of the law.

[Erdogan]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

Absoulutely true. Bitcointalk posters are the experts, you know. Does anyone have respect for a so called wall street professional who hasn't got around to buy in already?

[oda.krell]

Why Bitcoin’s Scoring in Argentina
Now this is the kind of news I like to read. [ ... ]

What I see is a marketing push by SecondMarket and Pantera to convince Argentinians that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation (!) and therefore they should invest in SMBIT and PBP.   Which are not doing well in the US, meh?

It is Neo & Bee for Argentina, only with marketing and muscle upped an order of magnitude.  And not managed by a small-time crook.

You conflate the 'investment opportunity to shady types' aspect with the 'additionals options through technology' one. Ignore, if you will, all of that article except for the localbitcoins aspect.

There’s no way for sure to measure the uptake of bitcoins in any country, but the evidence suggests Argentina is outpacing most. The number of traders listed on Local Bitcoins Buenos Aires is often three times that of Manhattan, for example, and the Fundacion Bitcoin Argentina is known to run the largest bitcoin meetup in the world.

You will then still (I suspect) argue that it's only a marketing ploy. I doubt that, though. If Argentinians are as cynical about promises as I got the impression they are*, no Pantera marketing push was the cause for this uptake in usage. It's more likely that the investment opportunity arose from the usage increase.


* source: Argentinian friend. Extremely skeptical of Bitcoin, though

It looks like there is uptake. Good article (but could of course be made up). Even with good progress, bitcoin will still be small when the peso hyperinflates. Only the people able and ready to act quickly can frontrun the demise of the peso.

True. Possible I got a bit too excited about it. There's just something... satisfying... to see Bitcoin used for perhaps the strongest reason that cryptos should exist - not as a speculative vehicle, not to avoid inflation (booh!, yeah I know), not to minimize transaction costs (important, but not as vital as the next point) - but to allow the near instantaneous transfer of ownership information & rights without distortion.

[empowering]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/06/26/bitcoin-bitstamp/

Interesting tidbit for many here:

"They make the obvious prediction that the Bitcoin will be sold for under-market value"

Are you guys going to be flaming the Bitstamp owners now?

Can someone on this subforum answer this one simple question, instead of completely ignoring it:

Q: In a closed door auction, where no one outside of it will know what the selling price was, how can Bitstamp, you, or anyone else know what the winning price was?

And don't just reply "The selling price will get leaked out" or some silly crap, as we know hearsay FUD is completely unreliable.

<quick, run away and avoid answering this question.  Again.>  

Why is it so improbable that the price gets leaked by one party or another? (if you trust them is another thing)  or that the USM will at some point publish/account for at least the price that they acheived for the total auction/lots ? (which one would have thought would become public information via FOIA) They will not publish the whos but they might publish/need to account for the how much at least, but not the identity of the buyers)

[JayJuanGee]

Reading about mmitech issue makes me wonder...

How do the Muslims deal with banks? Interest = 0%??

serious question.

If I understand it correctly , Muslims are not permitted to earn interest on money, this is "Riba" and is forbidden.
What they can do is receive rent for an asset they own - so a Muslim may buy an apartment, a physical good, and receive rent for allowing someone else to use it.
Given that bitcoin is not a physical thing on which one can earn a return I would have thought it was a bit of a grey area for Islamic finance anyway. Equities are ok as are securitizations as in those you buy the right to a series of cashflows that derive from a real asset, bitcoin hmm, tricky.

Yeah... the IRS rule clarification may have helped to declare bitcoin as property rather than as a currency... but in any event it is very conflicting to weave through the incorporation of such a practice in the modern world while maintaining various financial investments.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

No one cares.

They  have to show the webpage, the KYC standard, the fees, the ease to deposit and withdraw, and that the matching and everything in fact works. Only then it will be interesting.

[Erdogan]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

This week has been "interesting" thus far.

July is going to be very interesting methinks.

One month without FUD, China, Ghash and other drama would be so nice. But you can be almost sure we'll find something new to panic about. Another deadline that means absolutely nothing.

everything can't go great, some bad things MUST happen. I don't know if you ShormKit understands this. Step out of your fantasy world. Bitcoin will rise, let it take its time.

What fantasy world you idiot?
Do you see me anywhere screaming how we will go to 1000+ by next month?
We've had 6 months of bad things. All i'm saying 1 month without would be nice.
Say hello to the other idiots ony ignore list. Bye.

A probable psyop agent.

[JayJuanGee]

All human systems will be gamed.

A quick ride to 800 is not all that unlikely, after the auction.  It is major resistance after all.  I would expect an initial continuation of the down-trend, as those who want the auction to pump the market are disappointed, and give up.  When they are done, and the fiat is warmed up, then the upside will be seen.

Look at the last two swings.  The upswing was quite rapid, and the downswing relatively gradual.  Most people are trained on equities.  They know that bull markets are gradual things, climbing a proverbial wall of worry, while bear markets are panic driven, often rapid, sometimes sudden.  But in pair trades like BTCUSD, either component can be in a bull or bear market, so inverting the chart, we see that the current condition is characteristic of a bullish swing in USD, following a quick bearish swing during the latter part of May.  I would not extend this interpretation to the November spike because the topping phase of a hype cycle is a very different dynamic, with different motivations.  

What I draw from this is that holders of BTC have a need of USD.  Given the volumes we are seeing, it might even be that a single seller is driving the trend.  The 500/8hr guy finally succumbed to his wife's insistence on diversifying into u.s. equity mutual funds like all the "wise" financial advice (propaganda) would insist. (Sorry dude, you are doomed now, unless you can hold those funds until 2040 and USD can last that long.)

I don't think the USD bull market can last much longer.  USDJPY is certainly turning.  Very different dynamics, of course, but post-SCO outlook for USD is changing rapidly on several fronts.  Faith in ECB persists while faith in FRB is flagging.  Trade is being re-denominated (and simultaneously shrinking) so that US fiat exports face lower demand.  RMB floats in 2015.  Iran is exporting a lot of oil to China now.  

I'm simplifying for brevity, telling a story by telegraphy.

Who cares what you think?  I wanna know what monkey thinks.