Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

1: What will cause the rally and what will cause the dump?

A rally might happen because the parties who were outbid on the auction may look elsewhere to get their coins and add to the buying pressure, also the media attention could bring in more people. And there may be forces at work the past weeks to keep the price down to get a better price on the auction, and those forces will disappear after the auction which could also spark a rally as selling pressure suddenly vanishes.

A dump might happen if those coins were bought way below market making people nervous about a dump and wondering whether currently Bitcoin is overvalued. This could easily snowball into a sell-off.

But there are many other factors at work at the same time as well, the auction isn't the only thing that determines whether we will see a rally or a dump.

2: Why is this considered so extremely important at the moment?

Bitcoin is a thinly traded market and thus a few million dollars can easily move the price around in whatever direction. The auction attracts parties who have many millions of dollars lying around so it's not hard to believe that some of these parties will keep a tight grip on the market until the auction is over. Even the possibility of this will just keep the market obsessed about it until this is over. At least that is my opinion.

Ok thanks. I understand what you are saying and it might be possible. It's just a lot of guessing and if's and maybe's.

Yeah welcome to the speculation subforum. If you want hard facts you should consider visiting a different forum.

I realize that. It just amazes me how extreme the market responds to this.
Personally, the way things are going i don't see a rally happening. If the outcome is good (whatever that is) nobody will care and it turns out to be minor event, it the outcome is "bad" people will dump because "omg this is horrible!".

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[ShroomsKit]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

[empowering]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

This week has been "interesting" thus far.

July is going to be very interesting methinks.

[ShroomsKit]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

This week has been "interesting" thus far.

July is going to be very interesting methinks.

One month without FUD, China, Ghash and other drama would be so nice. But you can be almost sure we'll find something new to panic about. Another deadline that means absolutely nothing.

[empowering]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

This week has been "interesting" thus far.

July is going to be very interesting methinks.

One month without FUD, China, Ghash and other drama would be so nice. But you can be almost sure we'll find something new to panic about. Another deadline that means absolutely nothing.

Maybe....  been kind of looking forward to July for sometime.. lets see what happens

edit: There is SURE to be China bans bitcoin at least 2 or 3 times in July  

edit edit: probably 2 or 3 times in the first week  

[h3speros]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

[ejinte]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

This week has been "interesting" thus far.

July is going to be very interesting methinks.

One month without FUD, China, Ghash and other drama would be so nice. But you can be almost sure we'll find something new to panic about. Another deadline that means absolutely nothing.

everything can't go great, some bad things MUST happen. I don't know if you ShormKit understands this. Step out of your fantasy world. Bitcoin will rise, let it take its time.

[ShroomsKit]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

No one cares.

[Torque]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

Notice that no one has even tried to give answers to your direct questions, except "blah blah blah thinly traded market blah blah blah market forces blah blah blah waiting on auction results blah blah blah."  It's because no one really has a fkn clue what is going on, and they just need some event horizon to point to and say definitively "That there is the reason that this market is confused!  I'm right, and everyone else is wrong!"

Here's a more plausible explanation of the past several weeks:

This silly immature Bitcoin market is still 80-90% dominated by pimply-faced teenagers and know-it-all nerdy 20-somethings, and all the teenagers/20-somethings went on summer break and forgot all about bitcoin.  They stopped buying bitcoins, and only really care about buying more bitcoins when bitcoin is going up. If it's not going up or rallying, they really don't care to have their money locked up in anything.  They also sold their bitcoins because a) bitcoin price is not doing anything right now, b) they can't day trade not enough volatility, and c) because they need their $100 for summer vacation to go party with.  So the few whales left in the summer market are taking full advantage of the lack of buyers, and selling the market down lower.  These whales will use any FUD they can drum up (including this stupid SR auction, the latest stupid FUD) to drive the price lower, and without the teenagers/20-somethings buying more coins during the summer months, the price will fall lower.  Nothing will change until fall, when the teenagers/20-somethings come back from summer break and start buying bitcoins again.

Now do I really believe everything I just wrote?  Maybe. Partially. Not totally.
But is it just as plausible an explanation as any of the other 1000 made up explanations for the market confusion presented on this sub forum?  Without a doubt, yes.

And that there is the whole point: no one has a clue, and everyone is just talking out of their ass.

 

[ShroomsKit]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

This week has been "interesting" thus far.

July is going to be very interesting methinks.

One month without FUD, China, Ghash and other drama would be so nice. But you can be almost sure we'll find something new to panic about. Another deadline that means absolutely nothing.

everything can't go great, some bad things MUST happen. I don't know if you ShormKit understands this. Step out of your fantasy world. Bitcoin will rise, let it take its time.

What fantasy world you idiot?
Do you see me anywhere screaming how we will go to 1000+ by next month?
We've had 6 months of bad things. All i'm saying 1 month without would be nice.
Say hello to the other idiots ony ignore list. Bye.

[ShroomsKit]

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

Notice that no one has even tried to give answers to your direct questions, except "blah blah blah thinly traded market blah blah blah market forces blah blah blah waiting on auction results blah blah blah."  It's because no one really has a fkn clue what is going on, and they just need some event horizon to point to and say definitively "That there is the reason that this market is confused!  I'm right, and everyone else is wrong!"

Here's a more plausible explanation of the past several weeks:

This silly immature Bitcoin market is still 80-90% dominated by pimply-faced teenagers and know-it-all nerdy 20-somethings, and all the teenagers/20-somethings went on summer break and forgot all about bitcoin.  They stopped buying bitcoins, and only really care about buying more bitcoins when bitcoin is going up. If it's not going up or rallying, they really don't care to have their money locked up in anything.  They also sold their bitcoins because a) bitcoin price is not doing anything right now, b) they can't day trade not enough volatility, and c) because they need their $100 for summer vacation to go party with.  So the few whales left in the summer market are taking full advantage of the lack of buyers, and selling the market down lower.  These whales will use any FUD they can drum up (including this stupid SR auction, the latest stupid FUD) to drive the price lower, and without the teenagers/20-somethings buying more coins during the summer months, the price will fall lower.  Nothing will change until fall, when the teenagers/20-somethings come back from summer break and start buying bitcoins again.

Now do I really believe everything I just wrote?  Maybe. Not totally.
But it just as plausible an explanation as any of the other 1000 made up explanations for the market confusion presented on this sub forum?  Without a doubt, yes.

And that there is the whole point: no one has a clue, and everyone is just talking out of their ass.

 

 

[zby]

Despite the correction, swaps continue to grow. I have the feeling that we need a bigger one to clear the risky longs and deleverage the market.

[empowering]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

No one cares.

Of course they do.

[ejinte]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

No one cares.

Of course they do.

ShroomsKit is delusional

[Hunyadi]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

No one cares.

Of course they do.

I do 

[Torque]

Has this been here already? Just a rumor, but still this is HUGE.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/25/its-david-vs-goliath-in-race-to-launch-nys-first-regulated-bitcoin-exchange/

No one cares.

Of course they do.

ShroomsKit is delusional

His point was, no one is buying up bitcoins like crazy because of this rumor.  Hell, no one is buying up bitcoins like crazy over any good news right now, and they haven't been for months.  So no, he's not delusional.

[empowering]

There is nothing surprising happening - the price action this week was always on the cards, yes because of the auction, as rational or as not as that may be.  I did think we would break the triangle and hit $640 before going into the chop this week... it was pretty obvious that the market was going to be choppy this week and we were in for an interesting week... and also there is expectation amongst some of an impending rally, actually this auctions timing was a little bit annoying in that respect adding noise to the market.

But as with all markets, they move and as always , in every market in the world, no one, and I mean no one knows all of the time what is going to happen, if they did, that particular market would no longer be a market.
People can have ideas, markets can have fundamentals and momentum and trends behind them which may give clearer signals at certain times, but no one knows for certain what will happen.

But July is 100% defo for certain going to be "interesting" I just "know" it but what exactly that means in terms of an actual $ value who knows

[fonzie]

Thank god for Shroomskit, the last sane person on this board!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hunyadi]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-27921445

...and no-one cares.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation