Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[FNG]

If you are not out, get out.

I'll hold and add and wait for that one small spark to light a fire under bitcoin.

Panic fucking everywhere..oh no. Take a step back and see what is going on in the btc world. Weak infrastructure is being improved, protocol is being utilized in new ways, VC's are looking endlessly for investments, online casinos (10+ Billion $ industry that could greatly benefit by adopting bitcoin is looking into it). Uber bearish sentiment makes me laugh.

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[Rampion]

I don't know why people keep looking at 2011 and tell me "this time it's different".

If this time is different, then it's because it's worse.

Now you are contradicting yourself... The only way for it to be worse would be to go below $15. So you are not a single digit believer, but just slightly higher???  

I like you a lot more when you post thoughtful comments instead of trollish fear-mongering. But hey however you get your jollies 

I guess he says it will be worst because there will be more traps, and the bear market will last longer.

[gandhibt]

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

Mmmm... Yeah.

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?

My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view.

Now we had two bubbles. This time bitcoin is bigger, stronger and faster. More people know about it. This will shorten the time from 2. bubble to 3. bubble and it will make the 3. bigger. Trend reversal needs just one big whale and then we go. In these conditions predicting that price will stay low for long is just denialism. It took a lot of time to generate the first bubble.

[Loozik]

I just woke up. what a nice price drop 

But still the price did not fall enough to buy 

[Rampion]

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

Mmmm... Yeah.

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?

My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view.

Now we had two bubbles. This time bitcoin is bigger, stronger and faster. More people know about it. This will shorten the time from 2. bubble to 3. bubble and it will make the 3. bigger. Trend reversal needs just one big whale and then we go. In these conditions predicting that price will stay low for long is just denialism. It took a lot of time to generate the first bubble.

Glad that you are so sure about it. I think the bolded part is true, but I also believe this is something that works in two ways. In 2011, a lot of people said "OMG, this is a scam", so they exited the market pretty fast. Now a lot of investors said "cool, it crashed, I can buy lower and wait for the next bubble", so there is more buying happening, the price bounces more, and at the end of the day it takes longer for the price to fall consistently. But it falls, like it happens during all bubbles deflations, and some of those investors that bought at $160 will crap their pants when we will reach $80, and will sell. Then it will be the turn of those that bought at $100, etc... People realizes that is stupid to hold on 1 coin if you can sell it and buy back 2 coins.

So, yes - people has more confidence in BTC now, and they are exiting the market in a slower fashion. But nevertheless they are exiting the market. Just check both the volume and the fiat on Gox and Bitstamp order books. Is declining. Fiat is leaving. And there's absolutely no sign for it to be coming back soon.

[prof7bit]

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

[Jaroslaw]

ugh what a horrible thing to wake up to below 100 again

After weekend it will be below 80

[Rampion]

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

Agreed that the best time to sell it's not now - it was obviously April, 9th, or if you didn't have the sheer luck to catch the very top, best time was when we bounced to $160ish after the crash to $50.

In any case, you win more by selling now at $100 and buying back lower. Because it will be lower...

[N12]

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

There are many timeframes and many winning strategies. Unless people are ready to lose 100% and hold for YEARS like I said before, I would advise against counter trend strategy.

When the trend reverses up, you will a) have minimized your risk and b) probably have more Bitcoins.

For anyone who doesn't like to trade at all though and wants a Bitcoin position I agree, dollar cost averaging is the way to go.

[Loozik]

ugh what a horrible thing to wake up to below 100 again

After weekend it will be below 80

Below 70 in my opinion.

[Jaroslaw]

ugh what a horrible thing to wake up to below 100 again

After weekend it will be below 80

Below 70 in my opinion.

I can agree with you

[Rampion]

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

There are many timeframes and many winning strategies. Unless people are ready to lose 100% and hold for YEARS like I said before, I would advise against counter trend strategy.

When the trend reverses up, you will a) have minimized your risk and b) probably have more Bitcoins.

For anyone who doesn't like to trade at all though and wants a Bitcoin position I agree, dollar cost averaging is the way to go.

Dollar cost averaging has been my strategy for long... But still, you need to be able to afford to buy constantly, during the crash. If you have already spent a lot in BTC, you won't average much by spending a little more while it goes down. It's just more effective to sell high, and buy lower.

[N12]

I'm assuming a regular income or a fixed amount of money that gets averaged into say 6 months or a year, maybe even longer. You spend 1 unit every week, at the end you have a strong long-term long position that, assuming your analysis holds true, will turn profitable soon, or even before you finish accumulating. Another strategy could be to buy a unit everytime the price halves, but you will have to project for many halvings so that you won't spend your full allocation. To spend the rest, you could use trend following and buy in an uptrend.

The recent breed of bulls rather chooses to believe in singularity and 300k USD this year though, and that's why we had the bubble.

[Jaroslaw]

BIG question: Do mtgox blocked only withdraws, or they blodked deposits too ?

[Rampion]

BIG question: Do mtgox blocked only withdraws, or they blodked deposits too ?

You should know, as you are trading millions of BTC per day... Or do you do OTC?

[Jaroslaw]

BIG question: Do mtgox blocked only withdraws, or they blodked deposits too ?

You should know, as you are trading millions of BTC per day... Or do you do OTC?

Im not depositing money since i olny sell BTC to get my cash

[ChartBuddy]

[ShroomsKit]

The realization that we will probably not be seeing triple digits for the remainder of 2013. Who knows about 2014.

Regarding withdrawing, I don't have that itch because of a lack of trust in MtGox but mainly to protect myself against possible irrationality/mistakes (buying into bull traps). There is a certain barrier in depositing because it takes time, so you are likely to make a more informed decision. I think I can handle it though. At a certain point I plan to split between long-term BTC holdings and speculative money.

Stop spreading fud you weirdo.

[ShroomsKit]

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long? Look around you, does it seem that world is changing fast or superfast? Bitcoin will die or it will go to the moon and it will not take years (it's possible, but not even close to likely).

His predictions are simply completely ridiculous and based on nothing. He's is spreading fud for whatever reason. Probably trying to get the price lower to buy some more coins. Sad.

[Jaroslaw]

The realization that we will probably not be seeing triple digits for the remainder of 2013. Who knows about 2014.

Regarding withdrawing, I don't have that itch because of a lack of trust in MtGox but mainly to protect myself against possible irrationality/mistakes (buying into bull traps). There is a certain barrier in depositing because it takes time, so you are likely to make a more informed decision. I think I can handle it though. At a certain point I plan to split between long-term BTC holdings and speculative money.

Stop spreading fud you weirdo.

Someone buys above 100$ and gets angry hahhaa