Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dalib]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

[1714583783]

1714583783

[gizmoh]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

But it looks very weak..

[Dalib]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

But it looks very weak..

I just wanted to edit my last post.

As is well seen that after 93 95-96, but it's not enough to 98-100 so far

[thef]

A weak bounce and a lot of willing sellers at $95. This isn't looking good.

[Its About Sharing]

I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.

Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question.

Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet.

There has been a lot of good advice about the price around here lately. Rampion posted some good information. I was a bit behind him in picking up on it but once I did I posted till no tomorrow the charts and what I saw. I actually called it pretty damn accurately. I just wish I would have gotten out at $130 when I first suspected things and not at $107. Anyway, thanks to Rampion for making me look deeper. One has to separate their feelings
here, at least to a degree.

Anyway, going forward, we've mentioned the resistance levels. Low 90's first, but I would be very very careful there as the 100 barrier is broken and that is a big psychological thing. Next is around $82, roughly. Then I have $68, $60, low $50's, then $20's. But this isn't in stone. You have to watch the volume and see how the price is affecting things on the charts.

I'm super bullish about BTC, like most of us here, but when we see the charts clearly saying down, don't fight the feeling...

I'll sacrifice some profit (though BTC isn't really about that primarily for me), in order to be a bit more certain of getting in at the right time.

All the fun is in LTC/XRP right now - anticipation of how high they will go. Not how low like in BTC...
Hate this but true for the moment!

Notice my post about LTC in this thread. I think it is a really valid question and I'd love to hear some responses.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.2760

Basically, do you want to invest in LTC while BTC is coming down and it seems LTC is more pegged to BTC than it is to the dollar? If today is any indication, then no, though it is a big down day...

I watch LTC for a lot of time (since it was 0.007$) and I agree that when BTC/USD falls, LTC/BTC goes up but LTC/USD goes down too.
So in times where BTC will probably lose value, like now, it would be wiser to go fiat.
On the other hand XRP since 19 April gained value in BTC and USD terms - so I thought that it is an even better alternative than fiat (if BTC drop in general). But lately XRP too loses in dollar terms when BTC goes down...

XRP has how many BILLIONS of shares? I don't care, but I am not going to invest in a debt based currency. Been there and done that, all of us have. XRP's benefit, from what I have read and heard, is to help reduce attacks on the network by making it costly. That sounds good, but when fiat money is endless I'm not so sure. When BTC guys can't quite grasp XRP and when most people can't quite grasp BTC, I think it's just safe to stay away from XRP. Excuse me for being a Debby Downer but something about XRP gives me a bad feeling. I for sure would use the network to get in and out of BTC, but it SHOULD NOT BE an investment. That is not it's purpose and if they make it that, question it thoroughly...

[Its About Sharing]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated.

I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering...

[Rampion]

I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.

Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question.

Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet.

There has been a lot of good advice about the price around here lately. Rampion posted some good information. I was a bit behind him in picking up on it but once I did I posted till no tomorrow the charts and what I saw. I actually called it pretty damn accurately. I just wish I would have gotten out at $130 when I first suspected things and not at $107. Anyway, thanks to Rampion for making me look deeper. One has to separate their feelings
here, at least to a degree.

Anyway, going forward, we've mentioned the resistance levels. Low 90's first, but I would be very very careful there as the 100 barrier is broken and that is a big psychological thing. Next is around $82, roughly. Then I have $68, $60, low $50's, then $20's. But this isn't in stone. You have to watch the volume and see how the price is affecting things on the charts.

I'm super bullish about BTC, like most of us here, but when we see the charts clearly saying down, don't fight the feeling...

I'll sacrifice some profit (though BTC isn't really about that primarily for me), in order to be a bit more certain of getting in at the right time.

Thank you for your word IAS, I also enjoy your posts and I love your enthusiasm, being a Bitcoin enthusiast myself. It comforts me that you find yourself agreeing with me in some occasions, half of the time I'm just having fun and I realize i border line the trolling, but at the end of the day I'm utterly sincere, I enjoy being very open about my feelings while I learn with the analysis and views of the other members in here.

There's some people posting that has a tremendous experience in the market, like Blitz, Adam or Frozenlock (and many more), and while everybody has a different approach, there's a lot to be learnt and enjoyed in the mix of cynical humor, trolling and serious statements that constitute this thread.

Coming back to the market, as you say its just stupid to fight against the trend, we are all Bitcoin bulls and that's why we are investing money, time and passion in it, so lets face the facts and play our cards so we end up with more beloved coins and possibly some fiat profits too

[Miz4r]

You can't all end up with more coins, for any person that ends up with more coins there is someone else who ends up with less. You may be on the lucky side, but I prefer not to dance around the chairs hoping I'm able to sit down in time when the music stops. I will just keep sitting firmly on my chair and gather as many chairs as I can while the rest keeps on dancing nervously around me waiting for the music to stop.

[Dalib]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated.

I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering...

However, I myself still do very well.

I just watched it last fall after a couple of hours (about 7) before we returned over 100

Today (so far) looks even weaker with demand.

[N12]

You can't all end up with more coins, for any person that ends up with more coins there is someone else who ends up with less. You may be on the lucky side, but I prefer not to dance around the chairs hoping I'm able to sit down in time when the music stops. I will just keep sitting firmly on my chair and gather as many chairs as I can while the rest keeps on dancing nervously around me waiting for the music to stop.

1) It's actually possible through Bitcoin's inflation of I believe 12.5% per annum.

2) Some people never cared about Bitcoin and bought into multimillion dollar positions on the way up to 266 just to gamble. They're leaving this market, and the hardcore crowd remains.

[Odalv]

I wonder how many people are feeling this way today

Nah, sell on the down buy at the bottom. But where's the bottom?

$68 (I had a vision) ... but then spike to $300 (not many bought at bottom, not enough time)

[Its About Sharing]

Just to throw a little bit of a monkey in the wrench (sorry, I'm in Germany and have lost some of my English)... Check out this guys Twitter - https://twitter.com/SirBitsALot
I feel he is on to something.

I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention.

One of the wisest statements that I ever read and it stays with me, I'm paraphrasing but J. Krishnamurti said something like "Be careful of the man that says he knows."
I don't know but I'm learning. And when you (you know who you are  ) come across others that clearly know more than yourself,... LISTEN, LEARN and integrate.
That is what I'm learning to do...

Peace out and rock on guys,
Bitcoin Bear but not Bitcoin Blind,
Watching,
IAS

ps - Thanks for the kind words Rampion. Cool that we are all learning together...
phoenix1 - Thanks also for your kind words, but I really don't know as much as those other guys (I think). Perhaps I'm less cryptic and sarcastic than Frozenlock though  . But I can help in my narrow scope of Candle analysis and intuition (if I care to listen past my enthusiasm - tough one). Dare I say a bit of a mirror going on, if you know what I mean (and I know you do!) 

pss - and after all that, this "thing" can turn on a dime and leave us behind. There are certain unknowns that I know I know but am not quite knowing, but feel... Be careful...

[Rampion]

I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.

Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question.

Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet.

There has been a lot of good advice about the price around here lately. Rampion posted some good information. I was a bit behind him in picking up on it but once I did I posted till no tomorrow the charts and what I saw. I actually called it pretty damn accurately. I just wish I would have gotten out at $130 when I first suspected things and not at $107. Anyway, thanks to Rampion for making me look deeper. One has to separate their feelings
here, at least to a degree.

Anyway, going forward, we've mentioned the resistance levels. Low 90's first, but I would be very very careful there as the 100 barrier is broken and that is a big psychological thing. Next is around $82, roughly. Then I have $68, $60, low $50's, then $20's. But this isn't in stone. You have to watch the volume and see how the price is affecting things on the charts.

I'm super bullish about BTC, like most of us here, but when we see the charts clearly saying down, don't fight the feeling...

I'll sacrifice some profit (though BTC isn't really about that primarily for me), in order to be a bit more certain of getting in at the right time.

All the fun is in LTC/XRP right now - anticipation of how high they will go. Not how low like in BTC...
Hate this but true for the moment!

Notice my post about LTC in this thread. I think it is a really valid question and I'd love to hear some responses.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.2760

Basically, do you want to invest in LTC while BTC is coming down and it seems LTC is more pegged to BTC than it is to the dollar? If today is any indication, then no, though it is a big down day...

I watch LTC for a lot of time (since it was 0.007$) and I agree that when BTC/USD falls, LTC/BTC goes up but LTC/USD goes down too.
So in times where BTC will probably lose value, like now, it would be wiser to go fiat.
On the other hand XRP since 19 April gained value in BTC and USD terms - so I thought that it is an even better alternative than fiat (if BTC drop in general). But lately XRP too loses in dollar terms when BTC goes down...

XRP has how many BILLIONS of shares? I don't care, but I am not going to invest in a debt based currency. Been there and done that, all of us have. XRP's benefit, from what I have read and heard, is to help reduce attacks on the network by making it costly. That sounds good, but when fiat money is endless I'm not so sure. When BTC guys can't quite grasp XRP and when most people can't quite grasp BTC, I think it's just safe to stay away from XRP. Excuse me for being a Debby Downer but something about XRP gives me a bad feeling. I for sure would use the network to get in and out of BTC, but it SHOULD NOT BE an investment. That is not it's purpose and if they make it that, question it thoroughly...

I have to admit that I have a couple of hundred k's of Cripple's, just as a hedge against my main investment, which is BTC. Also because I really needed to touch it with my hands, extending trust and buying a little "just in case", because while I profoundly dislike the concept I acknowledge its potential as a distributed, p2p version of the actual, flawed but dominant, debt-based financial system. In other words, I hope it fails, but I won't be extremely surprised if it didn't.

Back to current price, I missed the last bounce. I had my highest bid at $91ish, didn't got filled, so I pulled it to try to play the future bounce at $88ish. Dangerous games, but you gotta have fun

[warpio]

Me thinks this is going to start getting exciting again very soon... once the difficulty skyrockets from everybody jumping on board ASIC mining, combined with the hardcore investors holding through the drop to $50, plus all the new investors that will surely follow... bitcoins will start to become MUCH more scarce than ever before.

[Rampion]

Me thinks this is going to start getting exciting again very soon... once the difficulty skyrockets from everybody jumping on board ASIC mining, combined with the hardcore investors holding through the drop to $50, plus all the new investors that will surely follow... bitcoins will start to become MUCH more scarce than ever before.

Well, long term Bitcoin looks extremely exciting. This is why we are throwing money at it while we enjoy it so much, don't we?

[crumbs]

I hope we're not seeing the nascent "dead cat bouncing down the stairs" pattern.  Those are the worst

[N12]

For the bulls who have been criticising me, here's a serious post with fundamental analysis I made over two months ago on the bearish outlook (price was in the 130s at the time): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=188829.msg1957530#msg1957530

Maybe that will help you guys understand my way of thinking.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated.

I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering...

However, I myself still do very well.

I just watched it last fall after a couple of hours (about 7) before we returned over 100

Today (so far) looks even weaker with demand.

I'm really still learning to go with what I "feel" deeply and what the chart is sort of telling me. I'm not ready to jump in. I totally believe you though. It is a skill or art to know this (short term vs long trading and such). Way back when (internet bubble) I could look at a candlestick chart and just interpret sooo much from it. BTC doesn't speak to me like that. I don't trust what I'm seeing in just the chart alone. The market data adds a layer (and yet it is manipulated often) that we/I use.

Again, watch the sizes of the sells. I'm sure they will adjust them to hide them better but right now and for the last few weeks, the sell sizes have been noticeably bigger than the buys. I get the feeling like someone is playing us. So, no matter what the chart looks like, I don't trust it - go deeper. (BTW - If anyone knows of some way to monitor the size of sells relative to buys, I'm all ears.) The timestamp is key here also. (e.g. - You can see one seller put out a sale via a program and try to break it down, but it is all the same to the second, quite obvious. Nothing before or after it, stands out.)

Something a great great friend and teacher taught me:
Everything is data. Don't try to interpret the data. Just observe the data. No matter what you are talking about. So, with BTC, look at the charts, look at the posts, look at the USD, economy, banking, even esoteric things, etc. It is all data - don't judge it. Don't manipulate or organize the data. Just observe it. (Watching the matrix may help  )That is hard as we are conditioned unconsciously to see things a certain way. Anyway, as I said before, if you can separate some of the more emotional parts (they are data - not wrong or right - you have to find out how true), from the mind, intuition, etc and develop an overall picture... Well, that is pretty powerful. But if you really get there, I don't think you (I), would be here. eheheh But you can sort of taste it as it comes your way. Grasshopper goes...

[Dalib]

Back to current price, I missed the last bounce. I had my highest bid at $91ish, didn't got filled, so I pulled it to try to play the future bounce at $88ish. Dangerous games, but you gotta have fun

by the way 91-93 will not be sorry too.
I wrote that is that we can bounce. But it is above 100 "infinitely" Asks (mainly on the Bitstamp) is always between 93-97 (MtGox) little space "to play".