Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

For the bulls who have been criticising me, here's a serious post with fundamental analysis I made over two months ago on the bearish outlook (price was in the 130s at the time): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=188829.msg1957530#msg1957530

Maybe that will help you guys understand my way of thinking.

Pretty much agree with your analysis, which I think that can be summed up by saying that after a speculative mania phase the market has to correct and adjust to a supply+demand reality that got distorted during a hype cycle.

I also enjoyed this particular quote, as I have the same feeling:

The time to buy Bitcoins could be when difficulty begins to deflate again. Admittedly, that could happen much further up if another media hype starts, but the chances in my eyes are relatively small.

And right now, another media hype is nowhere to be seen. IMO, before that we really need an improvement in the infrastructure. During the next media hype, Gox cannot be anymore the leading exchange. Hence, as it happened in 2011, the end of the "gold rush" in mining, represented by a decline in the network hash rate, could be indeed a perfect moment to buy back in.

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[Dalib]

We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox

it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily)

I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated.

I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering...

However, I myself still do very well.

I just watched it last fall after a couple of hours (about 7) before we returned over 100

Today (so far) looks even weaker with demand.

I'm really still learning to go with what I "feel" deeply and what the chart is sort of telling me. I'm not ready to jump in. I totally believe you though. It is a skill or art to know this (short term vs long trading and such). Way back when (internet bubble) I could look at a candlestick chart and just interpret sooo much from it. BTC doesn't speak to me like that. I don't trust what I'm seeing in just the chart alone. The market data adds a layer (and yet it is manipulated often) that we/I use.

Again, watch the sizes of the sells. I'm sure they will adjust them to hide them better but right now and for the last few weeks, the sell sizes have been noticeably bigger than the buys. I get the feeling like someone is playing us. So, no matter what the chart looks like, I don't trust it - go deeper. (BTW - If anyone knows of some way to monitor the size of sells relative to buys, I'm all ears.) The timestamp is key here also. (e.g. - You can see one seller put out a sale via a program and try to break it down, but it is all the same to the second, quite obvious. Nothing before or after it, stands out.)

Something a great great friend and teacher taught me:
Everything is data. Don't try to interpret the data. Just observe the data. No matter what you are talking about. So, with BTC, look at the charts, look at the posts, look at the USD, economy, banking, even esoteric things, etc. It is all data - don't judge it. Don't manipulate or organize the data. Just observe it. (Watching the matrix may help  )That is hard as we are conditioned unconsciously to see things a certain way. Anyway, as I said before, if you can separate some of the more emotional parts (they are data - not wrong or right - you have to find out how true), from the mind, intuition, etc and develop an overall picture... Well, that is pretty powerful. But if you really get there, I don't think you (I), would be here. eheheh But you can sort of taste it as it comes your way. Grasshopper goes...

You are right that we should follow the trend without emotion.
But it is hard, not because they invest but since we want to invest in Bitcoin, because we trust him.

But business should be without emotion, definitely.

[seleme]

Hey, what's up with bitcoin transaction speed today? Heard about it in trollbox earlier and just transferred coins in about less than 10 minutes.

[phoenix1]

For those of you looking for a dead-cat bounce ... not all cats are the same ... some dream of flying



For the record this cat did not die

[xxjs]

Personally, I don't care how low the USD/BTC goes. I am an entrepreneur. I use my knowledge of cryptography, money systems and computer sercurity, and combine it with general knowledge of the world. Yes, I am relatively fearless. Using this competency, and the means and the balls to actually do something, I plan to profit big time on this.

[xxjs]

In short, long time bullish short time couldn't be bothered.

[Loozik]

[Miz4r]

I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention.

You know just as much as any one of those people you have named. Don't be fooled into thinking they know and see things you don't, they may have more trading experience than you have but bitcoin is quite a unique market where we all are learners. The bitcoin market is also so small and so many things can influence the price both ways that nobody really can predict what's going to happen. Yeah the chart looks bearish right now, but charts always look bearish until it hits a bottom and the trend reverses. And even then the reversal only becomes apparent weeks or even months after we have hit the bottom, and bears probably will still be convinced it's all a bull trap until we go way higher than 150. I also wonder what would have happened if USD withdrawals never had been locked at MtGox. The bid side and the entire market depth was actually building up quite nicely again up to that point and things were starting to look better. MtGox becomes less and less liquid after each of these issues pops up and since most big holders don't like an illiquid market and have no real alternative it becomes kind of like a vicious cycle. I guess that's good for the decentralization of exchanges but it's certainly not good for the price.

[Loozik]

Sorry, this chart is just wrong ... it does not say 'weeeee' 

I beg your forgiveness 

[Arcas]

The lines match up perfectly! It's a sign!!

[Loozik]

Because it is getting boring I have got a perverse folk clip with a high class model in it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvKzyuL7ubQ

watch in high res and enjoy this rustical girl.

[ChartBuddy]

[Coinseeker]

Well, well, well...back to double digits again.  Love all the bearish talk from the "bulls" who "saw this coming".      Pure comedy. 

[Its About Sharing]

I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention.

You know just as much as any one of those people you have named. Don't be fooled into thinking they know and see things you don't, they may have more trading experience than you have but bitcoin is quite a unique market where we all are learners. The bitcoin market is also so small and so many things can influence the price both ways that nobody really can predict what's going to happen. Yeah the chart looks bearish right now, but charts always look bearish until it hits a bottom and the trend reverses. And even then the reversal only becomes apparent weeks or even months after we have hit the bottom, and bears probably will still be convinced it's all a bull trap until we go way higher than 150. I also wonder what would have happened if USD withdrawals never had been locked at MtGox. The bid side and the entire market depth was actually building up quite nicely again up to that point and things were starting to look better. MtGox becomes less and less liquid after each of these issues pops up and since most big holders don't like an illiquid market and have no real alternative it becomes kind of like a vicious cycle. I guess that's good for the decentralization of exchanges but it's certainly not good for the price.

You bring up a good point and it has crossed my mind, actually a few good points, but focussing on the bold. I saw what you are talking about but the thing that still worried me was the sells. They were large and not always showing up in the books. I got the strong feeling that if things started to run up, then they would hold off on the sells, only to unload later. I'm curious what others think about this in general. (large size of sells relative to buys) I've mentioned it a few times and have yet to get a reply - Watching the sells closely shows me they are generally larger than the buys, and quite noticeably so. To me, that means we are probably going down still. It wasn't like that too long ago. I started to notice it (though perhaps it was happening before) when we were rounding off that $130 level). I really wanted to sell, but my emotion got in the way. It's all monopoly money in the end, so it doesn't bug me much. 
I really wonder if there is a way to investigate sell sizes. Thus far I find no technical indicator that looks at that specifically.

Thanks for the words, I guess we are really all seeing things from our own perspective and each perspective is valuable. Like I said, I try to look at all forms of data, no matter how "out there". Funnily enough, the Bitcoin astrology chart was having some heavy transits happen and I didn't like it. Also summer in general (astrologically) is not a good time for BTC due to some of the transits. But winter into spring things change. Yeah, I know, it sounds crazy, but like I said, I look at all data. (I still remember Krishnamurti saying "See the truth in the false.") I don't give it more weight than anything else but I look at it. If it makes you all feel better, I only give it like 10%-20% weight or so and only at certain times. But when things look really ugly, I pay special note.

[Its About Sharing]

Well, well, well...back to double digits again.  Love all the bearish talk from the "bulls" who "saw this coming".      Pure comedy. 

Seriously, this is funnier. (There is nothing funny about backing up opinions with charts and other evidence.)

[ChartBuddy]

[ElectricMucus]

Well, well, well...back to double digits again.  Love all the bearish talk from the "bulls" who "saw this coming".     Pure comedy.  

Seriously, this is funnier. (There is nothing funny about backing up opinions with charts and other evidence.)

Honestly I found every fellow piss orange ignore button guy to be the most enjoyable reading experiences on this forum. But that's not me, I've found this opinion common with many people I hold respect for. (Many of which who don't even have a highlighted button)

u jelly?

[Le Happy Merchant]

Honestly I found every fellow piss orange ignore button guy to be the most enjoyable reading experiences on this forum. But that's not me, I've found this opinion common with many people I hold respect for. (Many of which who don't even have a highlighted button)

u jelly?

Well between evolve, you, and smoothie I'd say it holds true.

[ElectricMucus]

thanks

[ChartBuddy]