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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26373527 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
NotLambchop
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December 09, 2014, 12:51:43 AM

^ Cheesy
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
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ShroomsKit
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December 09, 2014, 12:55:44 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?

Is Wallstreet still dying to get in? For someone who can't get wait to get in they sure wait a long time.
BlindMayorBitcorn
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December 09, 2014, 12:56:15 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?








Yes?
Tzupy
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December 09, 2014, 12:57:36 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?

Is Wallstreet still dying to get in? For someone who can't get wait to get in they sure wait a long time.

Not yet, maybe at 200$. Just wait... Grin
tarmi
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December 09, 2014, 12:57:47 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?


it's not a secret anymore.

Mark Zuckerberg investing $100 million in Bitcoin

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=884297.0
adamstgBit
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December 09, 2014, 12:57:51 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?

good question, i asked magic 8 ball...

N12
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December 09, 2014, 01:00:16 AM

Changed your mind? Wink
No, I never had a different opinion about averaging down as a trading strategy. Tongue

Blitz could be thought of as, if the fundamentals of bitcoin changed adversely.. averaging down wouldn't be a good idea, but if you believe them to have not changed and its just speculative pressure averaging in isn't a terrible idea?
Well, one is fundamental analysis and the other is technical analysis. With fundamental analysis (which is easier with stocks, and maybe currencies) you find out some value below which it's a bargain, and just buy so long as your fundamentals remain, no matter what the market does. Combining fundamental analysis and technical analysis can be done (such as choosing technical analysis purely for timing).

I guess the real point comes down to, how fucked are you if you are wrong, and at what point will you recognize you are wrong and how much will be salvageable then?
I mean, venture capitalists don't "care" about if one specific bet of theirs goes under, because that's the calculated risk. IMO acting purely on fundamentals, one has to behave like that, but I doubt that many HODL Bitcoin only as one of many assets.

So, ultimately, one needs to make a series of individual bets with +EV, but if you bet all and you practice 0 risk management on that all in bet, then you get fucked by randomness even if you have an edge.
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December 09, 2014, 01:01:11 AM


Explanation
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December 09, 2014, 01:03:24 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?

Is Wallstreet still dying to get in? For someone who can't get wait to get in they sure wait a long time.

You'll be the last to know don't worry!
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December 09, 2014, 01:05:33 AM

Oh, Shroomsy is back. Just in case, for those who don't know this particular maniac yet:

I will leave this place soon. Bitcoin is dead, it's only down from here and i sold everything i got quite a while ago so there is nothing for me here anymore.
I tried to help the few delusional bulls who just won't give up but they don't appreciate my warnings very much. Ah well, your money. I don't care really.
I'll come back every 50 dollar drop for some entertainment. So long and thanks for buying my coins at 400. Poor schmucks.

Good luck with your pump and dump coin.

I feel sorry for all the idiots who sold at these ridiculous prices and i will laugh at all the bears who will get caught in trap after trap the coming weeks.

The only winners are the holders (like me) and the people who pick up the last cheap coins while they can.

We're going up and it's confirmed!

None at the moment. Not sure if i will buy back again.  I invest in other things now.
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December 09, 2014, 01:26:00 AM

A note on the difficulty:

What it seems to me is that the S4's are on the market and people everywhere are dumping their old miners. I came across a post from 1l1l11ll1l last night (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=813649.msg9110299#msg9110299).. As people dump their old miners for the new ones, or just dump old ones for power issues - there is a significant amount of power leaving the pools.

Granted some of it is being replaced but I'd argue that a lot of it isn't.. Combine that with people who used to mine Bitcoin but have decided to switch to scrypt and I'd say that these two factors are what has been driving the difficulty down.. As more people pick up the old S2's and S1's the difficulty will increase again but it might take a couple of weeks.

I myself just picked up a S2 for $350 on ebay and in doing so I've taken about 243 gh/s offline. And the person that sold it to me took about 1000 gh/s offline.. It's the ripple effect of new miners taking over - it will go back up but right now all the miners are playing musical chairs with their hashing power.

ShroomsKit
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December 09, 2014, 01:26:46 AM

Is this where big money is secretly gobbling up all the cheap coins as i have been promised for about a year now?

Is Wallstreet still dying to get in? For someone who can't get wait to get in they sure wait a long time.

You'll be the last to know don't worry!

How does it feel to be one of those people who kept repeating that nonsense for months and months?
N12
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December 09, 2014, 01:39:13 AM

A note on the difficulty:

What it seems to me is that the S4's are on the market and people everywhere are dumping their old miners. I came across a post from 1l1l11ll1l last night (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=813649.msg9110299#msg9110299).. As people dump their old miners for the new ones, or just dump old ones for power issues - there is a significant amount of power leaving the pools.

Granted some of it is being replaced but I'd argue that a lot of it isn't.. Combine that with people who used to mine Bitcoin but have decided to switch to scrypt and I'd say that these two factors are what has been driving the difficulty down.. As more people pick up the old S2's and S1's the difficulty will increase again but it might take a couple of weeks.

I myself just picked up a S2 for $350 on ebay and in doing so I've taken about 243 gh/s offline. And the person that sold it to me took about 1000 gh/s offline.. It's the ripple effect of new miners taking over - it will go back up but right now all the miners are playing musical chairs with their hashing power.


Does it really take 2 weeks from shipping the miners to getting them back hashing? Although I guess some are sold because it actually has become unprofitable, and they will turn them off until they've actually found a buyer.
AWKWARDminer
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December 09, 2014, 01:46:36 AM

yes.

1. People are trying to sell S2's on ebay for $700+, when you can get them for about $300 - $400. So there are a lot of units just sitting around because no one will buy them for that much money... A lot of them I'd say - All the major mining shops still have them listed for $800 or comparable. (http://www.amazon.com/Bitmain-AntMiner-1000-SHA-256-Miner/dp/B00KH9339O)

2. Some people went ahead and sold their old units and the new ones aren't in yet.. Totally feasible scenario.

3. I took my miners offline and they are just sitting at my office. I would run them but I don't want my landlord to start charging me for power so I try to fly under the radar (I'm really pushing it at 1050w though!! lol).

4. It's just a theory.. It's probably half true and there is another factor I've haven't thought of.
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December 09, 2014, 02:01:11 AM


Explanation
Raystonn
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December 09, 2014, 02:07:54 AM

Medium-term exponential trendline (since April 2013, currently at about $358, bouncing off it now):





Long-term exponential trendline (entire lifetime of Bitcoin, currently at about $250, would fit an EW final wave down before new ATH):


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December 09, 2014, 02:21:41 AM

Mining hash rate flatlining simply lends support to the theory that price drives hash rate until we reach equilibrium.

Miners don't support the network for free you know, we needs to get paid!

Could be a long term issue? Maybe? Or maybe the price will increase and so will the hash rate.

Huh
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December 09, 2014, 03:00:49 AM


Explanation
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December 09, 2014, 03:10:02 AM

N12
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December 09, 2014, 03:12:45 AM

I'm too lazy, but if anyone has some spare time, he could do the following: Determine when the auction results were declared to winners. From then on, observe charts for unusually high selling volume, because clever arbitrageurs will hedge immediately. Less clever arbitrageurs will have had to wait until the BTC were sent out, so determine whenever that is/was and look again for unusual volume (after 6 confirmations time minimum).

Could be a fun exercise.
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