Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phoenix1]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

If they weren't confident, they should sell. They already have had a 37x increase. Diversification is wise, but they keep holding

Are they really holding? Or are they looking to sell their coins at a premium by recasting their coins as an ETF? I mean, say I have a bag of turds... I might have trouble selling a bag of turds. But, let's imagine that I was able to wrap those turds neatly in a snickers candy wrapper and sell it as a snickers. Maybe, just maybe, somebody won't realize until they take a bit into it that I just sold them some turds. If the Winklevii aren't bidding and they are running this ETF, I have a hard time distinguishing the turds in a candy wrapper strategy from there own. Just saying.

And on top of that, they get to charge a 'management fee' for looking after that bag of snicker-turds for people!

[Newbie1022]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

If they weren't confident, they should sell. They already have had a 37x increase. Diversification is wise, but they keep holding

Are they really holding? Or are they looking to sell their coins at a premium by recasting their coins as an ETF? I mean, say I have a bag of turds... I might have trouble selling a bag of turds. But, let's imagine that I was able to wrap those turds neatly in a snickers candy wrapper and sell it as a snickers. Maybe, just maybe, somebody won't realize until they take a bite into it that I just sold them some turds. If the Winklevii aren't bidding and they are running this ETF, I have a hard time distinguishing the turds in a candy wrapper strategy from there own. Just saying.

And on top of that, they get to charge a 'management fee' for looking after that bag of snicker-turds for people!

I didn't even think of that part. You have to hand it to them -- they are smart.

[NotLambchop]

... That's the magic of auctions and arbitrage: somebody will bid close to market, if for no other reason to to collect a (relatively) safe profit through auction -> exchange arbitrage (if he gets them below market that is).

As I understand it, the the only reason to buy at a blind sealed bid auction is the potential for buying substantially below market.*  
Bringing up slippage in relation to buying, but overlooking it in relation to selling ("collect a (relatively) safe profit [by selling on an exchange]) is a bit meh.

*For relatively fungible stuff like ordinary cars, Bitcoin, etc.  Not talking about art/rare items.

[phoenix1]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

If they weren't confident, they should sell. They already have had a 37x increase. Diversification is wise, but they keep holding

Are they really holding? Or are they looking to sell their coins at a premium by recasting their coins as an ETF? I mean, say I have a bag of turds... I might have trouble selling a bag of turds. But, let's imagine that I was able to wrap those turds neatly in a snickers candy wrapper and sell it as a snickers. Maybe, just maybe, somebody won't realize until they take a bite into it that I just sold them some turds. If the Winklevii aren't bidding and they are running this ETF, I have a hard time distinguishing the turds in a candy wrapper strategy from there own. Just saying.

And on top of that, they get to charge a 'management fee' for looking after that bag of snicker-turds for people!

I didn't even think of that part. You have to hand it to them -- they are smart.

But not so confident in the ETF and/or the current price it would appear
My guess would be they know the ETF is still a way off, so they have no need to restock now and increase their already rather large position. I imagine their portfolio is a little unbalanced!

[virtuexru]

Newbie, Shroomkit & Lambchop all on the ignore list.

[Newbie1022]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

If they weren't confident, they should sell. They already have had a 37x increase. Diversification is wise, but they keep holding

Are they really holding? Or are they looking to sell their coins at a premium by recasting their coins as an ETF? I mean, say I have a bag of turds... I might have trouble selling a bag of turds. But, let's imagine that I was able to wrap those turds neatly in a snickers candy wrapper and sell it as a snickers. Maybe, just maybe, somebody won't realize until they take a bite into it that I just sold them some turds. If the Winklevii aren't bidding and they are running this ETF, I have a hard time distinguishing the turds in a candy wrapper strategy from there own. Just saying.

And on top of that, they get to charge a 'management fee' for looking after that bag of snicker-turds for people!

I didn't even think of that part. You have to hand it to them -- they are smart.

But not so confident in the ETF and/or the current price it would appear

Maybe they ran out of candy wrappers.

[NotLambchop]

...I might have trouble selling a bag of turds...

Nothing of the sort, do it here
Ur welcome.

[Newbie1022]

...I might have trouble selling a bag of turds...

Nothing of the sort, do it here
Ur welcome.

Bahahahahahahaha

[phoenix1]

But not so confident in the ETF and/or the current price it would appear

Maybe they ran out of candy wrappers.

Haha !  

[phoenix1]

...I might have trouble selling a bag of turds...

Nothing of the sort, do it here
Ur welcome.

 

[oda.krell]

... That's the magic of auctions and arbitrage: somebody will bid close to market, if for no other reason to to collect a (relatively) safe profit through auction -> exchange arbitrage (if he gets them below market that is).

As I understand it, the the only reason to buy at a blind sealed bid auction is the potential for buying substantially below market.*  
Bringing up slippage in relation to buying, but overlooking it in relation to selling ("collect a (relatively) safe profit [by selling on an exchange]) is a bit meh.

*For relatively fungible stuff like ordinary cars, Bitcoin, etc.  Not talking about art/rare items.

I'd say that at -20% of market (which was what the comment I responded to said), there's plenty of wiggle room for slippage, even for a large stash like that.

Anyway, this is hypothetical. I doubt some large enough entity with the means to arb Bitcoin on this scale will do so on-exchange. Arb profit can also be gained by securing at a price below market a lot that will be sold OTC at a contractually bound price near market.

Anyway anyway, this is hypothetical. The above only describes why I consider it unlikely the auctions would sell vastly below market. There are reasons why they might be sold (somewhat) above market as well (government "cleared" coins, no on-exchange counter party risk).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NotLambchop]

... That's the magic of auctions and arbitrage: somebody will bid close to market, if for no other reason to to collect a (relatively) safe profit through auction -> exchange arbitrage (if he gets them below market that is).

As I understand it, the the only reason to buy at a blind sealed bid auction is the potential for buying substantially below market.*  
Bringing up slippage in relation to buying, but overlooking it in relation to selling ("collect a (relatively) safe profit [by selling on an exchange]) is a bit meh.

*For relatively fungible stuff like ordinary cars, Bitcoin, etc.  Not talking about art/rare items.

I'd say that at -20% of market (which was what the comment I responded to said), there's plenty of wiggle room for slippage, even for a large stash like that.

Anyway, this is hypothetical. I doubt some large enough entity with the means to arb Bitcoin on this scale will do so on-exchange. Arb profit can also be gained by securing at a price below market a lot that will be sold OTC at a contractually bound price near market.
...

Let me understand what you're suggesting:  Entering into a contract to sell X BTC ~market, and then bidding for X BTC at an auction?  You realize the risks here, correct?
And there's at least a 24hr delay between placing your bid & getting BTC learning if you're the winning bidder--you can't dump the coin if the price takes a nosedive.

Not saying there's no chance of coin going slightly below market, but above?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Newbie, Shroomkit & Lambchop all on the ignore list.

I think it has to be done to be able to enjoy this place

[LOBSTER]

http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-bidder-turnout-second-bitcoin-auction-declines-sharply/

Do you think that this will have an impact on the Bitcoin price?

STFU

Whats up? Just asking for information purposes only.

[Fatman3001]

Newbie, Shroomkit & Lambchop all on the ignore list.

I think it has to be done to be able to enjoy this place

I don't know if newbie is trolling but he fries my brain every time i read his posts.

[NotLambchop]

Newbie, Shroomkit & Lambchop all on the ignore list.

I think it has to be done to be able to enjoy this place

I don't know if newbie is trolling but he fries my brain every time i read his posts.

Can you take this to PM?
ty

[adamstgBit]

you guys feel that?

[adamstgBit]

the next 5 seconds are unbelievably critical!!!

[LOBSTER]

the next 5 seconds are unbelievably critical!!!

Any why are the next five seconds so unbelievably? Price drop?