Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

ITT:  Bulls reassuring each other that investing in BTCeanie BTCabies Bitcoin wasn't the dumbest thing ever.
At least not as dumb as facts and logic suggest it is

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[LOBSTER]

most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions

What sort of non-payment transactions?

Promotion transactions etc. - Bitcoin Gamling, Casinos and much more.

[Adrian-x]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

And the price still stands still. I wonder when the boom is coming...

With all of the mining ROI going away I can see money pouring into the price from people who do the math and realize mining with current hardware + electricity costs (not free) is likely not worth their time.

Better off buying bitcoin directly.

And the cycle continues.....once again.

Mining ROI is still good enough in other countries whre the electricity costs are next to nothing.

Now that mining difficulty has flatlined more miners are obviously keeping some coins rather than buying new HW, thus we might have less supply of coins for a while.

The flat dutifully is great for ROI, I think many mining hardware investments have had a ROI, now the risk (price volatility)  discourages growing your mining investment (possibly encourages first time miners though )

I expected the average miner to be saving a higher present of coins so yes I think supply will be shrinking although I don't expect it to reflect in the price until mining becomes marginally profitable.

So a long sideways or a drop and a big ramp.

[JimboToronto]

...non-payment transactions...

That's a bit of an oxymoron.

Any transaction is a payment from one address to another.

[fonsie]

  I'm sure that NotLambchop would even look worse than the last guy, if he were to leave his safe haven and act out in THE REAL WORLD, he sure is envious of those owning Beanie Babies, Bitcoin and Pink Unicorns.
Child abuse can really mess you up for life so it seems.

[NotLambchop]

No reason to be upset, fake fonzie

[JorgeStolfi]

most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions

What sort of non-payment transactions?

Transactions between addresses that belong (logically or actually) to the same person or entity:

* tumbling
* hotwallet/coldwallet transfers
* wallet management
* deposits/withdrawals to/from accounts in exchanges, casinos, wallet sites, ...
* proof of ownership / solvency
* moving coins as a precaution against theft
* collecting miner rewards
* stress-testing of wallet software
* deliberate stuffing of the traffic

Also transactions where coins change hands but not in exchange for goods and services:

* trading coins for cash or other crypto
* distributing mining pool rewards
* payout of bitcoin profits from company to personal wallets

I don't know why the transactions per day are increasing, if the amount of dollars represented by those transactions has been flat or falling for the last year.   Obviously, the average dollar value of each transaction is much less than it was in January/2014.

[Fatman3001]

Everything is going just fine.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=90&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

And the price still stands still. I wonder when the boom is coming...

With all of the mining ROI going away I can see money pouring into the price from people who do the math and realize mining with current hardware + electricity costs (not free) is likely not worth their time.

Better off buying bitcoin directly.

And the cycle continues.....once again.

Mining ROI is still good enough in other countries whre the electricity costs are next to nothing.

Now that mining difficulty has flatlined more miners are obviously keeping some coins rather than buying new HW, thus we might have less supply of coins for a while.

The flat dutifully is great for ROI, I think many mining hardware investments have had a ROI, now the risk (price volatility)  discourages growing your mining investment (possibly encourages first time miners though )

I expected the average miner to be saving a higher present of coins so yes I think supply will be shrinking although I don't expect it to reflect in the price until mining becomes marginally profitable.

So a long sideways or a drop and a big ramp.

One of the problems miners have with the current XBT price is that even if you get a good deal from Spondoolies or Bitmain you will probably not make the coins back before the next gen hw hits the market in 2nd quarter of 2015 and make the current gen obsolete. With this in mind "...a long sideways or a drop and a big ramp." is very likely. Of course a sharp price spike might change this, but the more time passes the more dramatic that spike will have to be for it to be worth buying current gen gear.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

Anybody still buying regularly?

Every dip when I can afford it.

[oda.krell]

Alternatively, [ Tim ] might think Bitcoin is well worth above $375, but knows that he a chance to gather a much bigger position if he doesn't buy it on-exchange, because off-exchange prices seem to (largely) follow the on-exchange price as "the market price", while there is no public price finding mechanism for off-exchange transactions (excluding localbitcoin).

But if he thought that bitcoin was worth 390$, and bid for 390$, why would he not also buy on the exchanges, after the bids closed, until the price rose to 390$?

Suppose that, as you suggest, he refrained from buying those 375$ coins at the exchanges because he wanted bitcoin to remain underpriced and thus discourage other bidders.  If that is what he thought, he should have bid at some price between 375$ and 390$, probably closer to the latter.  But them after the auction closed, why didn't he rush to buy those underpriced coins?  If he thought that buying 2000 BTC at 390$ was a good deal, why would he not buy 1000 more at 375$?

Perhaps he was not a rational player, or was lazy, or became more pessimistic betwen 12-04 and 12-05, or had some other reasons; but what about all the other whales, including those who did not enter the auction?  On 12-05, obviously none of them thought that BTC was worth more than 376$.  

So, Tim may have bid for more than 375$.  But it is also quite possible that all the bidders (including Tim) acted rationally, and all of them bid below 375$.  

Your economic model and reasoning is based on the assumption that the current market price (or values very close to it) fully reflects each economically rational actor's valuation of one Bitcoin unit. Assume on the other hand your goal would be to acquire a substantial position of, say, 1 million BTC. Buying a significant fraction of that position on-exchange is not in your own best interest: you will get slightly closer to your desired position, but in the process, you will drive up price substantially, thus reducing your chance to get the full position you wanted. The only available long-term strategy for you will be to accumulate off-exchange, or at most accumulate on-exchange so slowly that you will only have a negligible influence on the on-exchange price.

Note: The above is not equivalent to the claim that Draper is accumulating a large position off-exchange. It is simply an argument in favor of why an on-exchange price of x does not necessarily entail that big money is not willing to pay x for one bitcoin - it is only evidence that big money is not willing to pay x for one bitcoin on a public exchange.

[cmacwiz]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

I wish I could keep buying. In my fervor I over extended myself financially so I have stopped buying. Unfortunately I don't make good money yet.

[phoenix1]

most of the blockchain traffic seems to be non-payment transactions

What sort of non-payment transactions?

Transactions between addresses that belong (logically or actually) to the same person or entity:

* tumbling
* hotwallet/coldwallet transfers
* wallet management
* deposits/withdrawals to/from accounts in exchanges, casinos, wallet sites, ...
* proof of ownership / solvency
* moving coins as a precaution against theft
* collecting miner rewards
* stress-testing of wallet software
* deliberate stuffing of the traffic

Also transactions where coins change hands but not in exchange for goods and services:

* trading coins for cash or other crypto
* distributing mining pool rewards
* payout of bitcoin profits from company to personal wallets

I don't know why the transactions per day are increasing, if the amount of dollars represented by those transactions has been flat or falling for the last year.   Obviously, the average dollar value of each transaction is much less than it was in January/2014.

Intersting theory and one that has been picked up on elsewhere

http://www.coindesk.com/questions-linger-daily-bitcoin-transactions-pass-100000-milestone/

"Neither fees to miners nor bitcoin days destroyed have had a similar increase and those are much harder to game,"

"For less than $500 a day transaction volume can be artificially inflated by 10,000 or more. In all likelihood it is a combination of an increase in P2SH, Counterparty transanctions, which also hit a new record high; advertisement spam such as metadata within OP_RETURN; mixing, through Coinjoin and Coinshuffle, and mining rewards."

Perhaps this is the FUD Blitz was alluding to ...  TX volumes are possibly being inflated through underhand methods. But no, that could never happen in BTCWorld  

Seems a couple of 'reputable'  bulls are out in force to reassure is that all is going magnificently. That in itself makes me suspicious ...

[Fatman3001]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

The goal is not to be entertained now, the goal is to spend 2016 in a purple Rolls Royce screaming "I'm Rich Bitch!" while lighting joints with burning fiat.

[solex]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

I wish I could keep buying. In my fervor I over extended myself financially so I have stopped buying. Unfortunately I don't make good money yet.

Patience grasshopper. Price is coiling nicely for a spike upwards.

Mainstream media have stopped laughing and are looking to a new financial future. e.g.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f53524de-7bca-11e4-b6ab-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3KzJ5bohY

[fonsie]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

I'm still waiting for those double digit prices I have been promised for months now, to buy an additional 1000 btc, yet still no luck.

The bears have been promising cheap coins for over a year now, but they don't keep their promises.
It was supposed to go nowhere but down, yet here I am looking at more expensive coins each week.

All this trading, shorting, doom and the final dead of bitcoin, but not a single bear willing to sell me xx$ coins.

The chinese leaving were supposed to bring us back to 2011 prices, but either the chinese didn't leave or yet again false promises.

Just guessing here, but I've got this feeling that the bears and trolls haven't got the slightest idea what they are talking about, or am I supposed to wait until hell freezes over?

[phoenix1]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

I'm still waiting for those double digit prices I have been promised for months now, to buy an additional 1000 btc, yet still no luck.

The bears have been promising cheap coins for over a year now, but they don't keep their promises.
It was supposed to go nowhere but down, yet here I am looking at more expensive coins each week.

All this trading, shorting, doom and the final dead of bitcoin, but not a single bear willing to sell me xx$ coins.

The chinese leaving were supposed to bring us back to 2011 prices, but either the chinese didn't leave or yet again false promises.

Just guessing here, but I've got this feeling that the bears and trolls haven't got the slightest idea what they are talking about, or am I supposed to wait until hell freezes over?

If you have not made money shorting this year, you are doing it very wrong

[Elwar]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

Loading the chamber 1k at a time as my bank lets me.

Hoping for some panic to take advantage of. Otherwise, a skyrocket price is ok too.

[fonsie]

Anybody still buying regularly?

I'm a HODLER but at a bit of a cross roads right now regarding 'do I stick with what I have' or 'keep buying'.
No positive news at all for a while now but then again no real negative news.

It's all gone a bit boring.....

I'm still waiting for those double digit prices I have been promised for months now, to buy an additional 1000 btc, yet still no luck.

The bears have been promising cheap coins for over a year now, but they don't keep their promises.
It was supposed to go nowhere but down, yet here I am looking at more expensive coins each week.

All this trading, shorting, doom and the final dead of bitcoin, but not a single bear willing to sell me xx$ coins.

The chinese leaving were supposed to bring us back to 2011 prices, but either the chinese didn't leave or yet again false promises.

Just guessing here, but I've got this feeling that the bears and trolls haven't got the slightest idea what they are talking about, or am I supposed to wait until hell freezes over?

If you have not made money shorting this year, you are doing it very wrong

If you already have money and a real life job, there's no need for me to have more money. I want bitcoin, I want what was promised to me.