Changed your mind?
No, I never had a different opinion about averaging down as a trading strategy.
Blitz could be thought of as, if the fundamentals of bitcoin changed adversely.. averaging down wouldn't be a good idea, but if you believe them to have not changed and its just speculative pressure averaging in isn't a terrible idea?
Well, one is fundamental analysis and the other is technical analysis. With fundamental analysis (which is easier with stocks, and maybe currencies) you find out some value below which it's a bargain, and just buy so long as your fundamentals remain, no matter what the market does. Combining fundamental analysis and technical analysis can be done (such as choosing technical analysis purely for timing).
I guess the real point comes down to, how fucked are you if you are wrong, and at what point will you recognize you are wrong and how much will be salvageable then?
I mean, venture capitalists don't "care" about if one specific bet of theirs goes under, because that's the calculated risk. IMO acting purely on fundamentals, one has to behave like that, but I doubt that many HODL Bitcoin only as one of many assets.
So, ultimately, one needs to make a series of individual bets with +EV, but if you bet all and you practice 0 risk management on that all in bet, then you get fucked by randomness even if you have an edge.