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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 4 (5.6%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 12 (16.7%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 20 (27.8%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 14 (19.4%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 7 (9.7%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 4 (5.6%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1.4%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1.4%)
>$350,000 - 9 (12.5%)
Total Voters: 72

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21499880 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
coinableS
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March 19, 2015, 06:10:57 PM

I'm pretty sure yesterday was the last time we'll see sub $250 coins.  Tongue
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March 19, 2015, 06:15:07 PM

the bull brigate is out of the woods.
give us another good opportunity for shorting, please.

I hoped they'll provide us bears with a short entry at 270$, but that may have been optimistic.
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March 19, 2015, 06:21:29 PM

Yea, down again...
Wandererfromthenorth
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March 19, 2015, 06:25:02 PM
Last edit: March 23, 2015, 06:52:38 PM by Wandererfromthenorth



"Bounce or die" time






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March 19, 2015, 06:37:48 PM

relax bears 270 is coming before 32,000
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March 19, 2015, 06:41:03 PM

relax bears 270 is coming before 32,000

Oh that felt good for my sore eyes after a rain of red dildos yesterday... Shocked Shocked Shocked Grin
Wandererfromthenorth
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March 19, 2015, 06:46:23 PM

For those of us that have been through a couple Bitcoin bubbles, we know how crazy fast the price can rise when it finally decides to do so.  I believe it is more painful to miss out on that than just riding out these crashes, or equally so.
But price is not some magical thing that does whatever it wants.
Past bubble happened because people wired millions and millions on exchanges and you were clearly able to see it, among other things.
If price is about to go in a bubble you will be able to tell.

This time around it looks like nobody gives a flying fuck tho. At least for now.








$14-15M in bids currently on bistamp, bitfinex, btc-e, okcoin, huobi, btcchina, okcoin and coinbase ("$75M from NSYE!!!11!") combined, and still relentlessly going down.
3600 coins mined a day (almost $1M a day at current prices) and still 2 years of that shit.
Marketcap at $3.5-4 billion.



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March 19, 2015, 06:49:06 PM



inca
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March 19, 2015, 06:52:55 PM

For those of us that have been through a couple Bitcoin bubbles, we know how crazy fast the price can rise when it finally decides to do so.  I believe it is more painful to miss out on that than just riding out these crashes, or equally so.
But price is not some magical thing that does whatever it wants.
Past bubble happened because people wired millions and millions on exchanges and you were clearly able to see it, among other things.
If price is about to go in a bubble you will be able to tell.

This time around it looks like nobody gives a flying fuck tho. At least for now.

$14-15M in bids currently on bistamp, bitfinex, btc-e, okcoin, huobi, btcchina, okcoin and coinbase ($75M from NSYE!!!11!) combined, and still relentlessly going down.
3600 coins mined a day (almost $1M a day at current prices) and still 2 years of that shit.
Marketcap at $3.5-4 billion.

Why are you posting pictures of exchanges who have 1) no users after a hack (of course people aren't wiring money there) and 2) a small no fee Chinese exchange with fake volume (virtually no real volume when the volume bot turned off)?

Why do you insist on comparing bidsum volume at the end of the longest bitcoin bear market with the heights of the biggest bubble bitcoin has ever experienced?

Edit: and how do you know how much money is sat on exchanges but not on the orderbook? Point us at a post where you predicted the november 2013 bubble!

Edit2: Oh and if diff remains the same as today it will be july 2016 til the next halving..so 1 year 4 months Smiley
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March 19, 2015, 06:59:07 PM

Coin
Explanation
Wandererfromthenorth
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March 19, 2015, 06:59:42 PM

Why are you posting pictures of exchanges who have 1) no users after a hack (of course people aren't wiring money there) and 2) a small no fee Chinese exchange with fake volume (virtually no real volume when the volume bot turned off)?
Because I didn't want to spam the thread with a million pics.
I just chose two representatives exchanges.

Since bitcoin is today mainly a china business, I posted the one with the most bids available on coinsight.
"virtually no real volume when the volume bot turned off"
?


Go look at the other ones. Same result.
http://coinsight.org/




Why do you insist on comparing bidsum volume at the end of the longest bitcoin bear market with the heights of the biggest bubble bitcoin has ever experienced?
Because at the end of the previous bear market bid sum was convincingly going up as price was moving up. That's what caused (again, among other things) price to spike and continue to rise. Fiat flooding exchanges.

Also, I'm not comparing the bid sum now with the one at the peak of the bubble, I'm showing that bid sum is relentlessly decreasing and it's not getting better as it should if this was a trend reversal.

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March 19, 2015, 07:04:32 PM

Just in case it has not been posted before, and someone is curious:

The ~50'000 BTC destined to the recent USMS auction had been stored since 2014-12-08 at this address:

  12pCPrWvudnefJCtXQUBcm9z2NogtC3Rix

Starting on 2015-03-09, those coins were split by a sequence of transactions into three chunks that seem to be transfers to the winning bidders:

  ~3'000 BTC to 1BdmMnKQ417EpUngAnJCYmjYmD9Cud9iZB (on 2015-03-09)

  ~20'000 BTC to 1EAPKSvouAkFJWr5HuNF6wrz4fCN2FBvaY (on 2015-03-09)

  ~27'000 BTC to 1DPx2UJtwCQ3N8eGiuDoZSCB7x3rAPWcXw (on 2015-03-10)

The payouts to winners can be identified with some confidence because each amount is "biddable" (i.e. m*3'000 + n*2'000, for some integers m and n), minus a small amount compatible with the transaction fee.  (The USMS announcement explicitly said that trasaction fees would be paid by the winner, hence deducted from the amount sold.)

Thus it seems quite likely that there were three winning bids, as above.  The last one, paid out on 03-10, may have been a second call after a first-round winner failed to pay in time.

Beware that those three bids may have been made by the same person or company.  In the 2014-12 auction, the USMS released the coins to 10 distinct addresses, the first 9 receiving about ~5000 BTC each, and one address receiving ~3000 BTC; even though all those 48'000 BTC were bought by the same entity -- the SecondMarket syndicate of small bidders.  The syndicate most likely offered different prices for each lot; according to the auction rules, they would have had to submit 10 separate bid forms, each form bidding for one 2000 BTC lot and one 3000 BTC lot.  So it seems that the USMS issues one separate transaction for each bid form, even if two bid forms were submitted by the same entity.
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March 19, 2015, 07:05:36 PM

I think fallllling has bought the account of inca and is tryin to fool us with a reverse psychology attack. Incas denial is reachin absurd levels again so that even other "real" bulltards get distracted by it and consider selling coz they don´t wan´t to belong to that "group" anymore. Well played fallllling aka inca.
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March 19, 2015, 07:10:04 PM

For those of us that have been through a couple Bitcoin bubbles, we know how crazy fast the price can rise when it finally decides to do so.  I believe it is more painful to miss out on that than just riding out these crashes, or equally so.
But price is not some magical thing that does whatever it wants.
Past bubble happened because people wired millions and millions on exchanges and you were clearly able to see it, among other things.
If price is about to go in a bubble you will be able to tell.

This time around it looks like nobody gives a flying fuck tho. At least for now.








$14-15M in bids currently on bistamp, bitfinex, btc-e, okcoin, huobi, btcchina, okcoin and coinbase ("$75M from NSYE!!!11!") combined, and still relentlessly going down.
3600 coins mined a day (almost $1M a day at current prices) and still 2 years of that shit.
Marketcap at $3.5-4 billion.





Any way to get a cumulative chart like that? BFX, Bitstamp, Huobi (BTC-E/OKcoin if you can get the full orderbook)
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March 19, 2015, 07:13:24 PM

Just in case it has not been posted before, and someone is curious:

The ~50'000 BTC destined to the recent USMS auction had been stored since 2014-12-08 at this address:

  12pCPrWvudnefJCtXQUBcm9z2NogtC3Rix

Starting on 2015-03-09, those coins were split by a sequence of transactions into three chunks that seem to be transfers to the winning bidders:

  ~3'000 BTC to 1BdmMnKQ417EpUngAnJCYmjYmD9Cud9iZB (on 2015-03-09)

  ~20'000 BTC to 1EAPKSvouAkFJWr5HuNF6wrz4fCN2FBvaY (on 2015-03-09)

  ~27'000 BTC to 1DPx2UJtwCQ3N8eGiuDoZSCB7x3rAPWcXw (on 2015-03-10)

The payouts to winners can be identified with some confidence because each amount is "biddable" (i.e. m*3'000 + n*2'000, for some integers m and n), minus a small amount compatible with the transaction fee.  (The USMS announcement explicitly said that trasaction fees would be paid by the winner, hence deducted from the amount sold.)

Thus it seems quite likely that there were three winning bids, as above.  The last one, paid out on 03-10, may have been a second call after a first-round winner failed to pay in time.

Beware that those three bids may have been made by the same person or company.  In the 2014-12 auction, the USMS released the coins to 10 distinct addresses, the first 9 receiving about ~5000 BTC each, and one address receiving ~3000 BTC; even though all those 48'000 BTC were bought by the same entity -- the SecondMarket syndicate of small bidders.  The syndicate most likely offered different prices for each lot; according to the auction rules, they would have had to submit 10 separate bid forms, each form bidding for one 2000 BTC lot and one 3000 BTC lot.  So it seems that the USMS issues one separate transaction for each bid form, even if two bid forms were submitted by the same entity.

Jesus you've been away a while.

Go do some research, you'll be able to find out exactly who won the 3000 and also what happened to the 27000
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March 19, 2015, 07:18:18 PM

Edit: and how do you know how much money is sat on exchanges but not on the orderbook? Point us at a post where you predicted the november 2013 bubble!
Yes money sitting on the bids is not necessarily the money sitting on the exchange, but:

1: bid sum is an excellent predictor of BTC prices. History shows that the two are very well correlated. If it's price that contributes to a rise in bid sum or the other way around is irrelevant.
2: what we are interested in is how much demand changes, not necessarily in absolute terms. So changes in bid sum over time should give us a good indicator of how how much money in total (even if not sitting on the books) sitting on the exchange changes too.






As you can see bidsum started to convincingly go up at the end of the bear market.
Also, we were talking $15-$20 millions at mtgox alone (now we are lucky if there is that amount on all exchanges combined). Bid sum continued to consistently increase in both bubbles.
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March 19, 2015, 07:21:05 PM

meow.
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March 19, 2015, 07:28:40 PM

Jesus you've been away a while.

Yes, for some 100 pages of this thread...  Cheesy
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March 19, 2015, 07:34:08 PM


1: bid sum is an excellent predictor of BTC prices. History shows that the two are very well correlated. If it's price that contributes to a rise in bid sum or the other way around is irrelevant.


What you wrote contradicts itself :
you said it is a predictor and then you say you don't know which one leads the other. Correlation is not prediction.
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March 19, 2015, 07:39:50 PM

Jesus you've been away a while.

Yes, for some 100 pages of this thread...  Cheesy

it must be mind numbing most of the time reading through this thread as an academic... Even I've been considering terminating myself from entering this area after my recent abstention from my "only lurking allowed" rule. I'm sure there are some other more intellectually satisfying areas of the forum, and this microcosm of the community is probably not all that representative of the wider participants. I don't know exactly where you hang out though apart from here so maybe you've got it covered Smiley
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