Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[macsga]

Meanwhile in China:

[...] "China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium", and frankly we have been surprised that this extremely important topic has not gotten broader attention.

Then, to our relief, first JPM noticed. This is what Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, author of Flows and Liquidity had to say on the topic of China's dramatic reserve liquidation

Looking at China more specifically, it appears that, after adjusting for currency changes, Chinese FX reserves were depleted for a fourth straight quarter by around $50bn in Q2. The cumulative reserve depletion between Q3 2014 and Q2 2015 is $160bn after adjusting for currency changes. At the same time, a current account surplus in Q2 combined with a drawdown in reserves suggests that capital outflows from China continued for the fifth straight quarter. Assuming a current account surplus in Q2 of around $92bn, i.e. $16bn higher than in Q1 due to higher merchandise trade surplus, we estimate that around $142bn of capital left China in Q2, similar to the previous quarter. [...]

Really? I mean REALLY?!?!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/chinas-record-dumping-us-treasuries-leaves-goldman-speechless

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[BrewCrewFan]

People, I've a question please.

Why I see a lot of talking about dipping to $260/$240 and $220 ?

I guess I'm missing something out !!

I dont think you will see 220 again unless something bad happens like another huge bust, or a exchange takes a shit ( like coinbase or something like that )... or there is serious issues with the program itself.
Besides the block size, I think we are safe. You have to recall many of those large busts with all those coins just happened to be when coins were able to be gotten cheap. I doubt many druggies are walking around with 1500 BTC or anything like that, for it would have been smoked already or up the nose.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[BrewCrewFan]

if we look at ltc halfing and price increase, btc should be 500 usd by next year... its also fit the cost to mine 1 btc  if difficulty was doubled today.
off course price would be more relevant with demand. so i hope btc demand will be rising next year  

what we learned from LTC halving is that we will see some poor chaps lose their bitcoin profits on leveraged exchanges when someone loses $80k in a leveraged pump or whatever it is they do when bitcoin gets pumped and then suddenly dumped. at least that is what i learned from LTC halving so far.. i am never going to a leveraged exchange because of that. i feel it is "me against the music" when comes to bitcoins and cryptos.

Leveraged exchanges are where we take the money from gamblers.  Luck plays a part, but over time money flows from the dumb to the smart. We want bitcoin in the hands of smart people.

Eh wrong. Your looking at it wrong. Your going to have to have even the dumb people using bitcoin if you want bitcoin to succeed in the long run.

[BrewCrewFan]

Is this right ?

Porn were first real mass adopters of VHS, DVD and Internet technology

Porn drives a lot of technical advancements lol.

[xyzzy099]

because bitcoin is being affected by what appears to be anti-gravity ... kinda like how ripple will likely stay languishing down low for the unforeseeable future cuz apparently gravity is holding them down. what do you do in win-win situations ?? you either float by anti-gravity or get held down by gravity .. its the laws of gravity ... where is wily coyote at ?? he knows about gravity ...

Just out of curiosity, are you the author of the book in your signature, or just advertising for it?

[dreamspark]

Hence why the argument of it already being priced in somewhat certainly holds water.

It isn't priced in because it is over a year away. There are people arguing for a rally, a fizzle or no effect.

It is undeniably a huge event on the bitcoin calendar because it marks the last time that bitcoin coin inflation can ever be blamed for supply exceeding demand and pushing the price down.

5% inflation is pretty good. But any price shenanigans that go on around that time will be driven by the same heavy speculators driving the price up and down.

In the longer run if demand picks up then the reduced mining supply could lead to price rises. Which would be nice.

Disagree. Any event that you know of is a part of the consideration when buying/selling that stock/currency/commodity etc etc.

I'm not saying its completely priced in I said hence why that argument holds water.

You can't seriously suggest that it's not already part of the market psychology when people are already talking about it and anticipating a price rise due to it. All speculators big and small are holding hoping for it to cause a price rise.

It certainly doesn't mark the last time that btc inflation can be blamed for supply exceeding demand. How can you possibly say that. If the price rallies up to $10000 on a spike (remember on long term charts $1000+ was just a monthly spike) Then supply in $ terms could still easily outstrip demand. Don't forget not all mined coins are instantly sold, and all mined coins are part of inflation.

My point being you can't possibly state what you're saying as fact.

[aztecminer]

Every day is one day closer to the halving. One day closer to the next ATH. I've started banking my trading profits in BTC instead of dollars. We'll never see $220 again.

i work in the firearms industry.. i bank my profits by how much ammo i have... instead of how many bitcoins i have... although i still keep some bitcoins too.

[aztecminer]

because bitcoin is being affected by what appears to be anti-gravity ... kinda like how ripple will likely stay languishing down low for the unforeseeable future cuz apparently gravity is holding them down. what do you do in win-win situations ?? you either float by anti-gravity or get held down by gravity .. its the laws of gravity ... where is wily coyote at ?? he knows about gravity ...

Just out of curiosity, are you the author of the book in your signature, or just advertising for it?

why you thinking about reading it ?? .. i don't believe it is available in bitcoins though unless amazon accepts bitcoins.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[rememberme]

Nothing, all getting the hits

[Fakhoury]

Nothing, all getting the hits

 

[aztecminer]

you can calm down its getting book cover replaced soon (hopefully only two more weeks is rumor i heard) ... depends on the artist..  and u cannot blame me for whatever gravity problems is happening. blame whoever wily coyote for dragging cryptos into fighting against gravity. i haven't done anything other than buy bitcoins. and i do not play the leverage game cuz i am not good enough at trading. i have try to make a profit in bitcoins on tuesdays and every other thursdays. although i'm am pretty good at talking trash sometimes. what i am supposed to strategist to lose just for wily coyote can lulz ?? i'm probably not going to do that. maybe it will become available for bitcoins.. just for you guys.

[inca]

Hence why the argument of it already being priced in somewhat certainly holds water.

It isn't priced in because it is over a year away. There are people arguing for a rally, a fizzle or no effect.

It is undeniably a huge event on the bitcoin calendar because it marks the last time that bitcoin coin inflation can ever be blamed for supply exceeding demand and pushing the price down.

5% inflation is pretty good. But any price shenanigans that go on around that time will be driven by the same heavy speculators driving the price up and down.

In the longer run if demand picks up then the reduced mining supply could lead to price rises. Which would be nice.

Disagree. Any event that you know of is a part of the consideration when buying/selling that stock/currency/commodity etc etc.

I'm not saying its completely priced in I said hence why that argument holds water.

You can't seriously suggest that it's not already part of the market psychology when people are already talking about it and anticipating a price rise due to it. All speculators big and small are holding hoping for it to cause a price rise.

It certainly doesn't mark the last time that btc inflation can be blamed for supply exceeding demand. How can you possibly say that. If the price rallies up to $10000 on a spike (remember on long term charts $1000+ was just a monthly spike) Then supply in $ terms could still easily outstrip demand. Don't forget not all mined coins are instantly sold, and all mined coins are part of inflation.

My point being you can't possibly state what you're saying as fact.

Saying it is priced in is meaningless in my humble opinion. It is just something people say. If the market simply knowing an event in advance means it is priced in then the 2020 halving is priced in too, right?

You are right of course that if the price rallies up hugely then even 5% inflation could exert an effect. But the price is set by supply and demand and going forward the mining supply is going to become largely an irrelevence in comparison with the actual proportion of coins already in existence being used to set the price.

I will just say that it is an exciting time to be in bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Elwar]

because bitcoin is being affected by what appears to be anti-gravity ... kinda like how ripple will likely stay languishing down low for the unforeseeable future cuz apparently gravity is holding them down. what do you do in win-win situations ?? you either float by anti-gravity or get held down by gravity .. its the laws of gravity ... where is wily coyote at ?? he knows about gravity ...

Just out of curiosity, are you the author of the book in your signature, or just advertising for it?

why you thinking about reading it ?? .. i don't believe it is available in bitcoins though unless amazon accepts bitcoins.

If it's on Amazon you can get it for a discount by paying with bitcoins. At least 5%. On average around 20%.

[redsn0w]

What do you suggest now? Buy or sell ?

[dakota neat]

so... sideways after the double top doesn't look good. gravity will soon be noticed. i'm putting my bets on a leg down. very sad because i was promised 1200 this month. not very likely but hey this is bitcoin.

please do whatever you want. but the only entity that is always right is the market and thats because it accumulates all of the available knowledge.

[bad trader]

It looks like the market is committed to a crash, but is feeling too lazy to do anything about it.