Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Morecoin Freeman]

Trending up again?

Yes, it just went up 3 cents...

Amazing! I knew it.

[Greendragon]

ALL DAY HIGH!!!!!!

[JimboToronto]

Wherefore art thou Chartbuddy?

You're late. AWOL?

[Karpeles]

Wherefore art thou Chartbuddy?

You're late. AWOL?

Even bots need some rest

[shmadz]

Wherefore art thou Chartbuddy?

You're late. AWOL?

Even bots needs some rest

^^Best quip I've read in days.^^



Well done Mark.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold. Nothing is priced in since monetary good pricing is subject to a huge amount of inertia (stock-to-flow ratio very high) but when that inertia is overcome by pricing at the margin (true demand/supply) the new level can be very much higher and fueled by pricing perceptions and a large amount of speculative psychology.

[Cconvert2G36]

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold. Nothing is priced in since monetary good pricing is subject to a huge amount of inertia (stock-to-flow ratio very high) but when that inertia is overcome by pricing at the margin (true demand/supply) the new level can be very much higher and fueled by pricing perceptions and a large amount of speculative psychology.

Good point. We all have an idea of what the halving means, and some will even adjust our perceptions ahead of time. The actual balance of supply and demand is a completely different animal. Will we see 100x again shortly after the next halving? As much as it would please me... no.

Something like 10 million coins aren't traded at all every month, meaning there are lots of parachute strings to be pulled in the happy circumstance of a  precipitous rise resulting from demand outstripping supply.

[Blazin8888]

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/07/bitshares-nyse/

E95 2015-07-17 Developer Hangout with Bytemaster: https://youtu.be/wWQfXgq4sI4


In the dev hangout they say a big bank is in talks with them could be huge.

Is bitshares a scam?

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[edgar]

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/07/bitshares-nyse/

E95 2015-07-17 Developer Hangout with Bytemaster: https://youtu.be/wWQfXgq4sI4


In the dev hangout they say a big bank is in talks with them could be huge.

Is bitshares a scam?

a simpler question would be 'is max keiser a scammer/shill/spook?'

[gentlemand]

a simpler question would be 'is max keiser a scammer/shill/spook?'

Unquestionably a silly sausage. I don't think he did his credibility many favours with the Quark thing either.

[JorgeStolfi]

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold.

That is true... however:

In the 2 years before the last halving (2010-11-27 -- 2012-11-27) the price rose from ~0.28 to ~13 $/BTC (~45 times)

The price was practically flat around the halving (on 2012-11-28) and for the next 5 weeks.

In the 2 years after that halving (2012-11-29 and 2014-11-29) the price rose from ~13 to ~330 $/BTC (~25 times)

These numbers do not seem to indicate a significant correlation between the block reward and the price evolution.

Moreover, the rallies in 2013 have other explanations, not related to the reward:  Bobby Lee took the command at BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi opened in Mailand China, and bitcoin was "discovered"  by some big investors like Fortress and marc Adreessen, and by the legion of Chinese amateur commodity traders. 

By the way: the crash of Dec/2014 was clearly due to developments in China, so the preceding rally must have been born there, too.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[PoolMinor]

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold.

That is true... however:

In the 2 years before the last halving (2010-11-27 -- 2012-11-27) the price rose from ~0.28 to ~13 $/BTC (~45 times)

The price was practically flat around the halving (on 2012-11-28) and for the next 5 weeks.

In the 2 years after that halving (2012-11-29 and 2014-11-29) the price rose from ~13 to ~330 $/BTC (~25 times)

These numbers do not seem to indicate a significant correlation between the block reward and the price evolution.

Moreover, the rallies in 2013 have other explanations, not related to the reward:  Bobby Lee took the command at BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi opened in Mailand China, and bitcoin was "discovered"  by some big investors like Fortress and marc Adreessen, and by the legion of Chinese amateur commodity traders. 

By the way: the crash of Dec/2014 was clearly due to developments in China, so the preceding rally must have been born there, too.

From the future:******************

In the 2 years before the last halving (2014-11-29 -- 2016-11-28) the price rose from ~330 to ~4950 $/BTC (~15 times).

[Chef Ramsay]

so... sideways after the double top doesn't look good. gravity will soon be noticed. i'm putting my bets on a leg down. very sad because i was promised 1200 this month. not very likely but hey this is bitcoin.

please do whatever you want. but the only entity that is always right is the market and thats because it accumulates all of the available knowledge.

If you're serious then selling out is the appropriate motion at this point. Otherwise, stay tuned cuz the next moon is right around the corner and you'll likely miss it base upon your disbelief at what is to come cuz you're so shell shocked.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[inca]

If you're serious then selling out is the appropriate motion at this point. Otherwise, stay tuned cuz the next moon is right around the corner and you'll likely miss it base upon your disbelief at what is to come cuz you're so shell shocked.

Please don't quote him..

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation