Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[1714670063]

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[1714670063]

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[g3rszpi]

The price will go up within a few months, it is gonna skyrocket.

Most of us hope that statement will be proven correct. Unfortunately there's nothing concrete to tell us which way we'll go in the short to medium term. The price seems to be in a pretty concrete, boring range right now. I happen to think we'll go between 270-300 for another couple of weeks at least.

Between 275~ and 300 is pretty much a nothing zone, plenty of support below and plenty of resistance above.

When price will start to move faster, thrust me there will happen a lot of things in "nothing zone"

[ChartBuddy]

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[DieJohnny]

Reward has to halve. We might see a spike before then, but not much. Big move will be 6-12 months AFTER the halving, when all weak hands are gone, and any new investment will have to pry coins from the death grip of long time HODLERS.

[ChartBuddy]

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[billyjoeallen]

Reward has to halve. We might see a spike before then, but not much. Big move will be 6-12 months AFTER the halving, when all weak hands are gone, and any new investment will have to pry coins from the death grip of long time HODLERS.

Market rose before the last halving and will again this time. Markets are always forward looking. How many years does it takes to shake out all the weak hands?  No, it's gotta go sideways a bit more, but not that long.

So I think today is Magnum Day, ~357 to go before the halving.

[dreamspark]

Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.

[Adrian-x]

Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.

its sentiment like this that reminds me of weird Twilight Zone episodes.

The Block subsidy is inflation that devalues all our savings, it also necessary to incentivize security. It,s not so much a reward halving, it's a transaction cost subsidy halving and inflation halving.

The halving is a scary time, it's a big culling and a shake up. The last halving was anticipated by a big run up and then a slump, it wasn't until the drop in inflation kicked in and the liquid supply dried up that the markets went wild.

ultimately I think the same thing is going to happen again, except this time it'd different, there is more risk, bigger investments at stake and I think well see some a more volatile trend line and its going to be harder to predict.

make no mistake nothing is a given there is risk.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.

In the nearer term, we have the upcoming possibility of the Chinese  having to free float the rmb.  They've been artificially keeping it down by pegging to the usd, but if they want to be part of the sdr basket, they will have to unpeg. If it becomes a de facto reserve currency, a lot of Chinese hodlers could have a good reason to switch out of bitcoin.

I'm not sure of the timeframe, but I believe they have to decide ahead of the next IMF meeting in October.  It will be interesting to see how (or if) it effects bitcoin.

[johnty82]

Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.

In the nearer term, we have the upcoming possibility of the Chinese  having to free float the rmb.  They've been artificially keeping it down by pegging to the usd, but if they want to be part of the sdr basket, they will have to unpeg. If it becomes a de facto reserve currency, a lot of Chinese hodlers could have a good reason to switch out of bitcoin.

I'm not sure of the timeframe, but I believe they have to decide ahead of the next IMF meeting in October.  It will be interesting to see how (or if) it effects bitcoin.

Switzerland's franc jumped by about 30 percent against the euro when the cap of 1.20 francs per euro was stopped. Switzerland is nothing when compared to China's economic muscle. If China gives up it's peg to the USD then there could be a much bigger jump in the RMB than Switzerland's franc had. That would make waves that would reach the Bitcoin price.

[ChartBuddy]

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[soullyG]

ultimately I think the same thing is going to happen again, except this time it'd different, there is more risk, bigger investments at stake and I think well see some a more volatile trend line and its going to be harder to predict.

make no mistake nothing is a given there is risk.

Whatever happens, its going to be exciting 

[boumalo]

I think I will sell a tiny little bit at 320$ but the price will go to thousands when the market will factor in no rates raises or almost no rates raises from the FED.

[JorgeStolfi]

Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.

Well, after the last one on 2012-11-28 the price basically remained flat for 5 weeks.   

There was a rally after that, true; but before and after that halving there were several other rallies and crashes, which can hardly be consequences of it.  So, there is no good reason to think that the Jan--Apr 2013 rally was connected to it, either.

Things may be different this time, of course.  However, I would guess that the only direct effect will be a drop in the hashrate.  If that happens, there may be indirect negative effect on price. 

[dreamspark]

Im so excited about the halving, whether you think its going to go up or down no one can argue that the uncertainty is gonna bring some volatility so us traders can finally make some good money again.

Well, after the last one on 2012-11-28 the price basically remained flat for 5 weeks.   

There was a rally after that, true; but before and after that halving there were several other rallies and crashes, which can hardly be consequences of it.  So, there is no good reason to think that the Jan--Apr 2013 rally was connected to it, either.

Things may be different this time, of course.  However, I would guess that the only direct effect will be a drop in the hashrate.  If that happens, there may be indirect negative effect on price. 

I think the fact there are a much greater number of people trading BTC now then there was then will see to it not being flat. imo opinion of course.

[ChartBuddy]

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[Topbanker]

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[LFC_Bitcoin]