Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.

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[billyjoeallen]

If First Mover advantage is lost, whether it takes years or months, it will be gone forever.  Yeah, Bitcoin will still be around. Hell, MySpace is still around, but The escape route from Bankster tyranny will have been blocked.

Goldman sachs and govcoin can never replicate some of bitcoins best attributes:soverign, immutable, no KYC. and extremely unlikely to replicate other features that make bitcoin so great : limited , disinflationary.

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

Who says it has to even be private? All they have to do is clone bitcoin and premine the shit out of it, market it as the drug and terrorism-free version (loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug), and prop up the price for a few months.  If they hire K Street lobbyists to encourage USG to treat their coin a little more charitably and our coin with a little more hostility, it's off to the races.

We'll still be squabbling over SegWit and 4MB when their nodes are the size of Google data centers processing millions of transactions an hour. They'll be like a hot IPO and we'll be de-listed and relegated to the penny stock pink sheets. And we'll deserve it.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[flagpara]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.

350 seems really hard to reach indeed. And I'd bet that if price ever reached 350$ in those conditions it would crash even further because most people would loose trust in btc. But I don't see how it could drop so low, thousands of people are frustrated enough to have missed the opportunity to buy at 300, they will take any opportunity around 400 so it won't breack this floor.

I believe it's the first time we agree on something JayJuanGee 

[JayJuanGee]

If First Mover advantage is lost, whether it takes years or months, it will be gone forever.  Yeah, Bitcoin will still be around. Hell, MySpace is still around, but The escape route from Bankster tyranny will have been blocked.

Goldman sachs and govcoin can never replicate some of bitcoins best attributes:soverign, immutable, no KYC. and extremely unlikely to replicate other features that make bitcoin so great : limited , disinflationary.

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

Who says it has to even be private? All they have to do is clone bitcoin and premine the shit out of it, market it as the drug and terrorism-free version (loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug), and prop up the price for a few months.  If they hire K Street lobbyists to encourage USG to treat their coin a little more charitably and our coin with a little more hostility, it's off to the races.

We'll still be squabbling over SegWit and 4MB when their nodes are the size of Google data centers processing millions of transactions an hour. They'll be like a hot IPO and we'll be de-listed and relegated to the penny stock pink sheets. And we'll deserve it.

Again BJA simplifying a possible scenario to the degree of absurdity....   


Lot's of steps need to occur before this particular BJA scenario were to even be possible of playing out, and sure, if there is a competing Alt coin that seems to be more profitable, many of us BTC advocates, including yours truly, would likely be jumping onto the more profitable one (at least diversifying our investments onto the apparently more profitable alt). 

Nonetheless, your pie in the sky speculation is nearly pure absurdity, because it probably has less than a 1% chance of playing out as you describe.  Yet, the scenario may resonate with a few readers merely because it is possible, but even if something is possible does not make it very likely or something that we should be acting upon at the current moment... because, at the current moment, it's ridiculous.       

[JayJuanGee]

I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.

350 seems really hard to reach indeed. And I'd bet that if price ever reached 350$ in those conditions it would crash even further because most people would loose trust in btc. But I don't see how it could drop so low, thousands of people are frustrated enough to have missed the opportunity to buy at 300, they will take any opportunity around 400 so it won't breack this floor.

I believe it's the first time we agree on something JayJuanGee  

Maybe we should attempt one of those guy hugs in which we are trying not to touch each other too much?    

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Dotto]

why do i get the feeling halving is priced in and now btc looking shakey due to all these alt btc versions , fud is creeping in...in a few months the btc we all know and love will be changed, we wont be following nakamotos version.
 will it be the new devs vision and they will compete with other btc devs until one of the has the majority?

Ignored for good. Go FUD your mother

[BitUsher]

loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug

Not for many of us.

Who says it has to even be private? All they have to do is clone bitcoin and premine the shit out of it, market it as the drug and terrorism-free version (loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug), and prop up the price for a few months.

Fiat, bank coins, and gov alts do indeed have a future, but I won't touch those insecure premined alts. They can't and will never be able to replicate bitcoins best features (public or private blockchain based) ... and this is why Bitcoin is here to stay.

[Dotto]

If BTC appreciation were actually due to Chinese currency controls, we ought to be taking off right now, as you just can't buy physical USD in China this week.

And yet we're not taking off.  Thank your Core Development friends for that.

we're not taking off because china devaluations theory is bunk..

the nasdaq guy likely is totally clueless about the bandwidth problem ..

i hear people all the time talking about how great bitcoin is who don't have a clue about the flaw that is obvious to all of us here in the forum ..

the real reason we are at this price is because the federal govy pumped bitcoin using back channels so they could make a quick profit on the marshal's auction ..

however, now after pumping bitcoin they are faced with the looming bandwidth problem ..

it probably would have been smarter, wiser, better to fix the bandwidth problem BEFORE they PUMPED it ..

Man, you really have turned into a crackpot.  I wonder if it happened overnight, or whether it was a slow, gradual decline into lunacy.

+1

serious thinking in ignore aztecminer since a few weeks. Too much broken record blablahs

[flagpara]

why do i get the feeling halving is priced in and now btc looking shakey due to all these alt btc versions , fud is creeping in...in a few months the btc we all know and love will be changed, we wont be following nakamotos version.
 will it be the new devs vision and they will compete with other btc devs until one of the has the majority?

Ignored for good. Go FUD your mother

I'm not saying everything he says is right (I don't understand everything) but I like the part about the halving is already priced! After all it's something everyone expect so maybe is already priced.
But that doesn't mean price will crash and btc is ended xD

Maybe the price won't rise much more until the halving, even lower a bit after the halving because everyone will dump.

Well I don't know much and it will only go like this if the price is high enough for miners to make profit after the halving of course!

[tomothy]

I'm not sure if you guys have read this yet but it's crazy...

Mike Hearn's exit mic drop

I find it tough to dispute his arguments. It's getting close to fork or die time...

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.m7ipd85nk

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[BitUsher]

Bitcoin doesn't have to be everything to everyone to succeed. It has already succeeded and will continue to grow even if it is relegated to serving the grey and black markets. If bitcoin grows from covering 0.001% of the blackmarket to 1% it has a fantastic future. Do I believe bitcoin will be relegated to criminal free men use on the blackmarket? No. If it does will I be disappointed? No. Bitcoin was given birth from the cipherpunks and it won't give up its genetics so we can make friends with everyone.

I am proud bitcoin serves as a fungible currency for the deepweb, as well as retail stores. The power to do good or evil with a currency is a true test that it is indeed a real currency. Your non-immutable bankcoins and gov alts are simply coupon tokens that can be refused and reclaimed by the store owner at their discretion...  they aren't as fungible either: some currency (fiat held by the rich and well connected) is worth more than other fiat (fiat held by you which can be confiscated by asset forfeiture)

[Andre#]

I'm not sure if you guys have read this yet but it's crazy...

Mike Hearn's exit mic drop

I find it tough to dispute his arguments. It's getting close to fork or die time...

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.m7ipd85nk

The Bitcoin Believer Who Gave Up

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/business/dealbook/the-bitcoin-believer-who-gave-up.html?_r=0

[DaRude]

I'm not sure if you guys have read this yet but it's crazy...

Mike Hearn's exit mic drop

I find it tough to dispute his arguments. It's getting close to fork or die time...

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.m7ipd85nk

The Bitcoin Believer Who Gave Up

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/business/dealbook/the-bitcoin-believer-who-gave-up.html?_r=0

Good that should keep the pressure on the price a tad bit longer till the halfing

[becoin]

The Bitcoin Believer Who Gave Up

... for bitcoin to drop below 300...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[r0ach]

Mike Hearn's exit mic drop

I find it tough to dispute his arguments. It's getting close to fork or die time...

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.m7ipd85nk

It's easy as shit to dispute his arguments.  He's basically claiming that if the blocks ever fill up, then Bitcoin has failed.  Since Bitcoin can't scale to world reserve currency without really fucking big blocks (133MB with lightning network and way higher without it), it's pretty much guaranteed to have full blocks and a fee market no matter what you do.  While I do think Bitcoin needs at least 8MB blocks to remove most of the glass ceiling on price, his logic is not sound at all about it succeeding or failing based on blocks being full or not.

That post might impress Bitcoin noobs into thinking there's some type of crisis, but blocks becoming full was always destined to happen from day 1.  The real issue is that Lightning Network does not exist TODAY, and so blocks should be raised so that Bitcoin has more room to grow until that happens, assuming Lightning Network is even the solution to all our problems in the first place.  The way I see it, a collateral bid, deterministic block production system with something like 1001 fixed block producers is the only low hanging fruit I see to solve decentralization and on-chain scaling at the moment:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1317450.0