Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Laosai]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still stuck around $440, eh?

Let's get this thing moving up.

Hello!

Would be cool to go through a 420 first as I just opened a short :p

I don't expect the 450 to be broken so soon. Not even the 445.

[aminorex]

Monkey anticipates recovering 450 over the next 2 or 3 days, then a small-ish correction before resuming a weekly uptrend.

[Ayle56]

market price totally incorrect right now.

Actually, before the latest block size/Mike Hearn ragequit the price was fairly stable in the $430 range. The price dropped at that point.

Now we're back to the safety of that $430 range.

From here the price should slowly rise due to the normal factors.

Hopefully you're right Elwar unless any more self obsessed idiots in public positions want to try & destroy bitcoin AGAIN !!!!

Let's hope this is te only thing able to harm btc. I'm a bit skeptical though, this up trend seems too good to be true...

It's not too good to be true, it's a slow rise that's had a minor correction of less than $25. A small correction was on the cards before going higher, the highest price was only $50 off $500 and that's the next target IMO. The next time it goes to $500 it should keep going up.

[JimboToronto]

Monkey anticipates recovering 450 over the next 2 or 3 days, then a small-ish correction before resuming a weekly uptrend.

I won't argue with monkey. I also see returning to $450 within a few days but I thought we just had the predictable $450 correction, all the way down to under $430 before the equally predictable return to $440.

What surprised me was how quickly it happened. It usually takes a day or two, not just a few hours.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[aztecminer]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still stuck around $440, eh?

Let's get this thing moving up.

blocks are 92% full when u said that .. in case u didnt notice.

[aztecminer]

Coin



Explanation

if nobody notice this morning: blocks are 97% full atm.

[Gyrsur]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still stuck around $440, eh?

Let's get this thing moving up.

blocks are 92% full when u said that .. in case u didnt notice.

^^BS!

https://blockchain.info/de/charts/avg-block-size

[billyjoeallen]

There is still a huge amount of upward momentum in this market, judging by the moving averages.  The problem is, if we continue on this trajectory, blocks will fill first, then fees will double. Then fees will quadruple, octuple, etc. until even the mathematincally challenged pumpmonkeys start to extrapolate what this means. Even though fees are still cheap, they will be only so for a very short period of time.

we have the capacity for a half million active users at most. Even if we ALL go away and get replaced by high rollers doing drug deals or speculating on the halving or whatever, and even if SegWit almost doubles the capacity, then what? Things just stagnate until we go through another two year clusterfuck to kick the can again? Rinse and repeat?

and what if through some miracle we get through all of that with flying colors and market cap goes to 100 Billion. Do you think the PBoC and the Communist Party of China will be happy with that and just let it continue to grow?

I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.  The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.

The problem as I see it is that the traders who make the biggest profit in this market actually create volatility, withholding liquidity when it is needed and dumping when the market is already crashing.  I may have made a fundamental miscalculation.  This could just be growing pains or this could be something endemic to disinflationary currency. 

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings.   Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive.  What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened.  27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%. 

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration. 

[Alley]

Looks like Hearns rage quit has failed.  Im guessing another FUD attempt will ocure soon to try and keep price below $500.

[mOgliE]

Coin



Explanation

if nobody notice this morning: blocks are 97% full atm.

Well the important is not that few blocks are full.

The important is to see if there are still non full block to make the low fees tx go through the network.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[toknormal]

Bitcoin/USD 3-Day chart.

Warming up main engines.

[8up]

There is still a huge amount of upward momentum in this market, judging by the moving averages.  The problem is, if we continue on this trajectory, blocks will fill first, then fees will double. Then fees will quadruple, octuple, etc. until even the mathematincally challenged pumpmonkeys start to extrapolate what this means. Even though fees are still cheap, they will be only so for a very short period of time.

we have the capacity for a half million active users at most. Even if we ALL go away and get replaced by high rollers doing drug deals or speculating on the halving or whatever, and even if SegWit almost doubles the capacity, then what? Things just stagnate until we go through another two year clusterfuck to kick the can again? Rinse and repeat?

and what if through some miracle we get through all of that with flying colors and market cap goes to 100 Billion. Do you think the PBoC and the Communist Party of China will be happy with that and just let it continue to grow?

I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.  The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.

The problem as I see it is that the traders who make the biggest profit in this market actually create volatility, withholding liquidity when it is needed and dumping when the market is already crashing.  I may have made a fundamental miscalculation.  This could just be growing pains or this could be something endemic to disinflationary currency. 

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings.   Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive.  What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened.  27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%. 

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration. 

+1

I agree, besides I see one last bubble coming, that will bring (due to its "success") the end of Bitcoin with it. Luckily a much more "decentralized" digital-currency ecosystem will follow. The fall will be hard for many early adopters.

[adamstgBit]

There is still a huge amount of upward momentum in this market, judging by the moving averages.  The problem is, if we continue on this trajectory, blocks will fill first, then fees will double. Then fees will quadruple, octuple, etc. until even the mathematincally challenged pumpmonkeys start to extrapolate what this means. Even though fees are still cheap, they will be only so for a very short period of time.

we have the capacity for a half million active users at most. Even if we ALL go away and get replaced by high rollers doing drug deals or speculating on the halving or whatever, and even if SegWit almost doubles the capacity, then what? Things just stagnate until we go through another two year clusterfuck to kick the can again? Rinse and repeat?

and what if through some miracle we get through all of that with flying colors and market cap goes to 100 Billion. Do you think the PBoC and the Communist Party of China will be happy with that and just let it continue to grow?

I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.  The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.

The problem as I see it is that the traders who make the biggest profit in this market actually create volatility, withholding liquidity when it is needed and dumping when the market is already crashing.  I may have made a fundamental miscalculation.  This could just be growing pains or this could be something endemic to disinflationary currency.  

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings.  Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive.  What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened.  27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%.  

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.  

+1

I agree, besides I see one last bubble coming, that will bring (due to its "success") the end of Bitcoin with it. Luckily a much more "decentralized" digital-currency ecosystem will follow. The fall will be hard for many early adopters.

tl; dr; pure FUD every word is pure FUD.

[bargainbin]

...
tl; dr; pure FUD every word is pure FUD.

Chillax; sexy human females are waiting for you and your bitcoins @ Xotika.TV

[Spaceman_Spiff]

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  

Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.  

Apart from some other concerns you raise, which I think have merit, I would like to respond to 2 things where I believe you to be wrong:

1) I don't know where you get the assumption that the halvings are supposed to have an effect on velocity of money.  

2) I think bitcoins paid through LN are economically the same as on-chain transactions.  Yes you could describe it as some kind of IOU, but it is mathematically/informatically based on the same bitcoins, these bitcoins are "anchored", so you should treat these like regular bitcoins. It's not the same thing as a paper IOU (or a digital one) where the only "link" is the trust you have in the issuer of the IOU.

EDIT: actually, maybe LN might have some effect on money velocity in the future, by allowing (especially by machines) much more and faster transactions.

[adamstgBit]

...
tl; dr; pure FUD every word is pure FUD.

Chillax; sexy human females are waiting for you and your bitcoins @ Xotika.TV

i can't i'm saving myself a big load to blow on my GF's face.

[bargainbin]

...
tl; dr; pure FUD every word is pure FUD.

Chillax; sexy human females are waiting for you and your bitcoins @ Xotika.TV

i can't i'm saving myself a big load to blow on my GF's face.

Saving. Delayed gratification. That's what good Libertarian secs is all about

[mOgliE]

Bitcoin/USD 3-Day chart.

Warming up main engines.

I'm a bit afraid by your chart... I shouldn't have oppened a short no?