Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aztecminer]

I think I finally understand the true nature of this controversy: Smallblockers are Jacobites.

A little background:  Jacobites are those that claim that the Royal Family of England are not the true heirs because somewhere way back, the rules of succession were not properly followed and the Elector of Hanover was crowned king mainly because he wasn't Catholic.  Jacobites are correct, but what they don't seem to understand is that it doesn't matter at all.  At this point in history nobody is going to take the crown off of Lizzy and plop in onto Prince Alois of Lichtenstein or whoever. Not. gonna. happen. Rules of succession were made to ensure orderly transition of power, not the other way around.

In our version,  Smallblockers think that non-core code is by definition not Bitcoin. So if the miners adopt Classic (or whatever), that network of miners, nodes, exchanges, wallets, etc is no longer Bitcoin.  AGAIN, that may be literally true (if you accept that definition) but it won't matter at all.  The true definer of consensus is reality.  Will that network be viable? I don't know the answer to that, but it is virtually certain that the jacobite (Core) fork will not.  Hashpower secures the network.

your ability to relate anything to bitcoin's current situation is amazing.


anyway,

i was trying to explain the situation to my dad, and he kept bugging on " everyone will just stick to Bitcoin the original  if there's no consensus. " i didnt have time to finish the convo i had to run out the door, but here what i will tell him tomorrow.

"
that is not what will happen
forget it, "Bitcoin the original" doesn't exist even today.
either we all come together ( segwit + 2MB ) and call it bitcoin with Core as the "government"
or there will be a fork, and each impl will change in their own way.
there is no "original" there is only 2 new coins Core and Classic
each with their own hashing power, each with there own new impls.
this should be avoided, but at this point miners are on the brink.
I know you like the Idea of bitcoin being the "Backbone" to a second layer, but >80% of the hashing power disagrees.
I for one will not fallow Mr Blue hair and BS BlockStream team ( whose president is nowhere to be found -_- )
maybe i'm going nuts! ( it wouldn't be the first time, and it sure as hell won't be the last )
but i think it would be prudent to make damn sure ALL your coins are under your control, incase the fork happens tomorrow.
"

hahahahahaha...

Listen to your dad... he sounds correct, even if he doesn't really know what he is talking about.

There is generally a presumption of maintaining the status quo, and probably, that is the point that he is making regarding saying bitcoin the original will live on.  hahahahaha



YOU GO>>>>>>>>> DADDY AdamstgBit!!!!!!!!!!

Most miners, particularly Chinese miners don't give a shit about Bitcoin other than as a revenue source. They will perpetuate the status quo as long as it makes them money and not a second longer.  Already you see some of them trying to find a face-saving way to back out of the Roundtable Consensus because they know or suspect that it's too little too late for scaling and that Core won't ever honor it anyway. In fact, according to their own rules, they CAN'T honor it.

The status quo is good for BTC price until blocks are full and then it's bad.  Blocks are almost full. The future is full of uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty.

the battle of price between the halvening and bitcoin dont scale .... i do not see how it matters how many coins are being mined if this thing doesnt scale. if the blocks fill up as we approach halvening, we might see some bitcoin chaos.. this should be awesome .

[adamstgBit]

Adam told you it wasn't. Close to a month ago, but don't mention that,
'Course (iirc) he also offered a fix for the issue, but don't mention that.

Yep, better to see if the angry mob can be used to fuck with the price a bit more. /s

if there's an angry mob it's not because of 1 small oversight.
I was and still am perfectly willing to support segwit.
i'm angry because, we had this agreement and now it's falling apart, who's making it fall apart? Blockstream guys...


BTW, has it been confirmed that Blockstream can/have veto the agreement???

[aztecminer]

I think I finally understand the true nature of this controversy: Smallblockers are Jacobites.

A little background:  Jacobites are those that claim that the Royal Family of England are not the true heirs because somewhere way back, the rules of succession were not properly followed and the Elector of Hanover was crowned king mainly because he wasn't Catholic.  Jacobites are correct, but what they don't seem to understand is that it doesn't matter at all.  At this point in history nobody is going to take the crown off of Lizzy and plop in onto Prince Alois of Lichtenstein or whoever. Not. gonna. happen. Rules of succession were made to ensure orderly transition of power, not the other way around.

In our version,  Smallblockers think that non-core code is by definition not Bitcoin. So if the miners adopt Classic (or whatever), that network of miners, nodes, exchanges, wallets, etc is no longer Bitcoin.  AGAIN, that may be literally true (if you accept that definition) but it won't matter at all.  The true definer of consensus is reality.  Will that network be viable? I don't know the answer to that, but it is virtually certain that the jacobite (Core) fork will not.  Hashpower secures the network.

your ability to relate anything to bitcoin's current situation is amazing.


anyway,

i was trying to explain the situation to my dad, and he kept bugging on " everyone will just stick to Bitcoin the original  if there's no consensus. " i didnt have time to finish the convo i had to run out the door, but here what i will tell him tomorrow.

"
that is not what will happen
forget it, "Bitcoin the original" doesn't exist even today.
either we all come together ( segwit + 2MB ) and call it bitcoin with Core as the "government"
or there will be a fork, and each impl will change in their own way.
there is no "original" there is only 2 new coins Core and Classic
each with their own hashing power, each with there own new impls.
this should be avoided, but at this point miners are on the brink.
I know you like the Idea of bitcoin being the "Backbone" to a second layer, but >80% of the hashing power disagrees.
I for one will not fallow Mr Blue hair and BS BlockStream team ( whose president is nowhere to be found -_- )
maybe i'm going nuts! ( it wouldn't be the first time, and it sure as hell won't be the last )
but i think it would be prudent to make damn sure ALL your coins are under your control, incase the fork happens tomorrow.
"

hahahahahaha...

Listen to your dad... he sounds correct, even if he doesn't really know what he is talking about.

There is generally a presumption of maintaining the status quo, and probably, that is the point that he is making regarding saying bitcoin the original will live on.  hahahahaha



YOU GO>>>>>>>>> DADDY AdamstgBit!!!!!!!!!!

Most miners, particularly Chinese miners don't give a shit about Bitcoin other than as a revenue source. They will perpetuate the status quo as long as it makes them money and not a second longer.  Already you see some of them trying to find a face-saving way to back out of the Roundtable Consensus because they know or suspect that it's too little too late for scaling and that Core won't ever honor it anyway. In fact, according to their own rules, they CAN'T honor it.

The status quo is good for BTC price until blocks are full and then it's bad.  Blocks are almost full. The future is full of uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty.

blocks are completely full
every single one
my 1cent fee tx has yet to be mined

CB's maths are wrong.

last week blocks were running in 80%, this week we are seeing them running upper 90's all day and night .. places everybody!

[aztecminer]

...and we're still above $420. Dafuq

bitcoin = #bizarroworld

[adamstgBit]

...and we're still above $420. Dafuq

bitcoin = #bizarroworld

watch it crumble when its confirmed the some of the Blockstream guys have veto power.

[Fatman3001]

Anyone who said buy eth?

Down +15% in 5 minutes.

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_eth

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[ahpku]

No more theft than a landlord charging you rent. Stop it with the entitled bullish, snowflake.  You live here, we keep it nice. You pay rent or GTFO.

>what are u a govy shill ??
If you only knew, Earthling, if you only knew...

just remember who pays your shilling wages ... we get the final say if our stolen money was well spent, however much you might like to blow it on spying and manipulating the public, we will get our dues, either by courts or hang-ropes

they are in their final acts of desperation with the 'negative interest rates' is federal reserve ammo and 'cashless society' is for anti-terrorism anti-laundering .. the reason they have to steal money is because they are a cheesy bankrupt govy that has no intelligence to figure out a better way .. because they are so far in debt and bankrupt after years of "trusting in god" for the federal reserve to manipulate everything is the reason why they have to steal from All of US. i have the same attitude, if they dont like the color of the sun they can GTFO ... people should be piling into gold and silver while it is manipulated lower by a govy that has no other choice but who are running out of physical metals to keep their game going as their 'interest to infinity' debt slavery system continues to FAIL. .......and..their #abusivehightaxes are playing a major role in why the economy was unable to get out of recession after all that QE and we are slowing down again as people cant make their car payments and car repos start to soar ... we are watching their 'interest to infinity' debt slavery system implode even as their shill turds talk trash to us about how they are justify their #abusivehightaxes as rent we owe them .

BRB, raising your taxes to buy polo ponies for inner-city gay welfare moms.

[aztecminer]

I can't believe I even have to say this but I do not hate the Chinese. I hate single party currency-manipulating governments with a sketchy understanding and respect for property rights and free speech.

Canadians, OTOH...

Plaid-wearing moosehumpers.

what about mexicans ??

[aztecminer]

https://youtu.be/UjZuM2qUiF4?t=2m19s

and poeple are starting to buy alts...


we are all going to die.

from 90% to 84% percent market share in two months! If Bitcoin was a corporation, it would be extraordinary for the CEO NOT to get sacked by the Board of Directors.  That is a stunning loss of market share in so little of time. It took IBM, Microsoft, Yahoo! years to lose that much. Not sure about MySpace though. 

yeah but price is still $420 and we still have 2% more block space we can fill.... so all is good .

[aztecminer]

https://youtu.be/UjZuM2qUiF4?t=2m19s

and poeple are starting to buy alts...


we are all going to die.

from 90% to 84% percent market share in two months! If Bitcoin was a corporation, it would be extraordinary for the CEO NOT to get sacked by the Board of Directors.  That is a stunning loss of market share in so little of time. It took IBM, Microsoft, Yahoo! years to lose that much. Not sure about MySpace though. 

the sad news is these altcoins even ETH is no safe haven from what's happening here in bitcoin land, if bitcoin can't do it no one can.
and if everyone ( or a few to many poeple) goes of to doge maid eth   etc
the whole crypto world is going to come crashing down.
i can't quite put my finger on why exactly
but i have a feeling if bitcoiners get all divided up into 10 - 20 different cryptos, it's a big fat FAIL, for all.

we can move to pms....... np.....

[aztecminer]

i just send 1$ to 1LBHYYEbd8eqrfi9PiSEkj35e9vM3iZEFm with a 1cent fee

lets see what happens...

sending it now...

https://blockchain.info/address/1LBHYYEbd8eqrfi9PiSEkj35e9vM3iZEFm

if this dont work ill send it with a 5cent fee.

current block height 399867

Damn, 1 cent fee is 1% it's far too much already!
I usually pay a 0.1% fee and it goes in the first blocks!

Fees go per kilobytes used in the blockchain, not per amount sent. The blockchain doesn't care if you send 0.01 btc or 10 btc - only about how much space is used by the transaction.

Well. Logical I suppose. But how do you know the size of your transaction?

side note, my TX is the min size ~256bytes

block height 399870

0 confirmations

I have begun this experiment too, with transferring approximately $1 (although I think that the same fee will pretty much apply for a $100 or $1,000.

I sent it 3 times, and I adjusted the fee to be either .0001 BTC per kilobyte ($.04 fee), .000025 per kilobyte ($.01 fee) and .00001 per kilobyte ($.004 fee).


The higher two showed up on the receiving end without confirmations within a couple of minutes of my sending them; however the lowest one, which is essentially nearly no fees, has not yet even shown up on the other end, so far, after 22 minutes.  

I will attempt to check the extent of the update, every 30 minutes in order to verify whether they have confirmations.

So far only one of my three transactions have gone through (listed below from higher fee to lower fee).  The first transaction included the standard fees, and the second two included lower than the standard fees.

1)  $1.06  (.0025  BTC)        sent 6 hours ago            Fee .0001 btc ($.04)  (.0001 BTC per kilobyte)  - Immediately showed up on receiving end, and 3 confirmations and available for use after 1 hour and 12 minutes.

2) $1.20 (.002855 BTC)        sent 6 hours ago            Fee .000025 btc ($.01) (.000025 BTC per kilobyte)   - Immediately showed up on receiving end, and so far 0 confirmations and after 5 hours disappeared from receiving end

3) $1       (.00236  BTC)        sent 6 hours ago            Fee .00001 btc ($.004) (.00001 BTC per kilobyte)   - So far has not shown up on receiving end and 0 confirmations

I conclude that including the standard fees helps to ensure that your transaction goes through in a timely manner.  Maybe I will provide another update, later, if these last two transactions ever go through?
 

Finally, I got the results of all three of my low quantity bitcoin/blockchain transactions of a little over $1.  
Each of these transactions were sent about 11 hours ago, via blockchain.info wallet to a local bitcoins wallet.

Results as follows from highest to lowest fees:

1)  Amount sent  $1.06  (.0025  BTC)       I Manually added Fee .0001 BTC ($.04) (.0001 BTC per kilobyte)  (fee % = 3.77358%)
- Immediately viewable on receiving end w 0 confirmations/ available for use (3 confirmations) after 1 hour / 12 minutes.

2)  Amount sent  $1.20 (.002855 BTC)       I Manually added Fee  .000025 BTC ($.01) (.000025 BTC per kilobyte)    (fee % = 0.833333%)
- Immediately viewable on receiving end w 0 confirmations / available for use (3 confirmations) after 7 hours / 11 minutes.

3) Amount sent    $1.00 (.00236  BTC)      I Manually added Fee  .00001 BTC ($.004) (.00001 BTC per kilobyte)  (fee % = 0.4%)
- Was never viewable on receiving end until after completely received / available for use (3 confirmations) after 9 hours / 21 minutes.


I would consider each of these three transaction to be near micro transactions, and the fastest one was a bit over an hour with nearly a 4% fee added and the slowest low fee one (was nearly free, and probably I could have eliminated the fee completely) of less than a 0.4% fee was still finalized and completely and irreversibly settled in less than 10 hours.  During a time that the blocks were supposedly nearly full all day (and blockchain.info charts were showing an average blocksize of about 85% full - which is about the highest ever for the whole history of bitcoin (interesting given the likely additional spam being pumped into the blockchain with various free transactions on an ongoing basis)......

Yes, a bit nerve racking to wait for final confirmation for nearly half a day and to be able to use the coins, but still pretty decent settlement and manageable for such a low cost and low amount transactions, no?  

Surely, there are some downsides to irreversibility and owning mistakes (if they are made); however, even during this contentious "full blocks" period, these results seem to be pretty decent for beating the fees and the speed of the settlements of my bank transactions, with 24/7 useage and also international (maybe even intergalactical, once communication channels are improved?).

awesome... if i want to buy a starbucks with bitcoin it will take between one hour and ten hours .... i was really starting to worry about that. ... because i think waiting any more than ten hours to get my coffee is way to excessive.....

[aztecminer]

blocks are completely full
every single one
my 1cent fee tx has yet to be mined

CB's maths are wrong.

I had to wait the whole night for my tx to go through. First time I need to wait so long :-/

should be alright ... your standing in line at grocery store....all night long..... look is not a problem alright.. u make big deal out nothing . #GimpedCoin

[watashi-kokoto]

I need ideas

what kind of indicators would be useful to you for bitcoin trading from the shill drama?

shill post vs total posts on the board?

doing a kind of shill posting analyzing tool

[adamstgBit]

Did Blockstream veto the roundtable consensus?

hopefully we can get some more clear answers as to what's going on with the agreement....

[ahpku]

I need ideas

what kind of indicators would be useful to you for bitcoin trading from the shill drama?

shill post vs total posts on the board?

doing a kind of shill posting analyzing tool

^Would be a fine addition to my Eliot Harmonic Resonance Integrator & Stand-Alone Technical Analyzer.
How much?

[Fatman3001]

I need ideas

what kind of indicators would be useful to you for bitcoin trading from the shill drama?

shill post vs total posts on the board?

doing a kind of shill posting analyzing tool

Idk, but if idiot posts came into play you just moved the needle.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

blocks are completely full
every single one
my 1cent fee tx has yet to be mined

They are full precisely because almost all near-zero fee transactions are currently included.

Are all zero fee transactions included in Litecoin, Dash, monero, etherium?  Bitcoin is losing market share because competitors are underpricing us. 

Just open a block explorer and you'll see LTC and DASH has like 4-5-6 tx/block, monero is at 0-1.

BTC does like 2000 txs/block.

You are either gaining market share or you are losing it. It doesn't matter how far of a lead you have. if your competitor is picking up speed and you are slowing down, in a long enough race, you will lose.

no coin has had the heat thrown at it that bitcoin has ... if any of them get big enough to warrant more than a 'meh' then the blow torch comes on them.

I want to see the BS of V. Buterin explode into a full-blown internet rage war, PoS ethereum is going to encourage some truly sick politicking, you thought PoW chinese miners was an 'issue'?

No coin...yet. We seem to be talking past each other. Look, there can be only one "most marketable commodity" by definition. Another word for that term is "money".  In order for something to be marketable, you have to be able to bring it to market. To exchange it.  NO cryptocoin is money yet, but no cryptocoin will ever become money if it can't be exchangeable in the frequencies money needs to be exchanged.

If Etherium has more utility due to smart contracts, turing completeness or whatever, it will gain market share faster. PoS has serious problems and I've always said that, but it turns our PoW also has a serious problem: Chinese electricity and labor cost advantages means ANY PoW plan may result in the same loss of censorship resistance Bitcoin is experiencing with mining overdevelopment and concentration in one political jurisdiction.

 

Caspar? POS? Vitalik's a cowboy. Will any of that even blend?

If Ethereum manages to prove that PoS is safe on a large scale, Bitcoin might have to move to PoS as well.

Have there been any examples of PoS coins running in a true decentralized way?

Maybe Nxt, Peercoin certainly isn't. But those tiny shitcoins don't prove much.

It needs to be proven to handle large economic actors as well as a large number of users and large numbers of bad actors.

Ethereum is interesting in that it's not a currency, so a double spend or similar won't fundamentally harm its raison d'être.

That way they can afford to risk running an unproven technology like this, whereas Bitcoin can't.

"The foundation and its subsidiaries alone simply do not have the manpower to push the entirety of this vision through to its ultimate completion, including proof-of-stake driven scalable blockchains, seamlessly integrated distributed hash tables, programming languages with formal verification systems backed by state-of-the-art theorem provers and dozens of categories of middleware, all by itself; although the foundation and its subsidiaries can, and will, continue to be the primary driver of technology at the core, a highly community-driven model is necessary and essential, both to help the Ethereum ecosystem maximally grow and flourish and to establish Ethereum as a decentralized project which is ultimately owned by all of humanity, and not any one group."

IDK. Seems like a pretty tall order.

https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/09/28/the-evolution-of-ethereum/

[watashi-kokoto]

^Would be a fine addition to my Eliot Harmonic Resonance Integrator & Stand-Alone Technical Analyzer.
How much?

What how much ? I have absolutely no idea what to implement so you pay me with the ideas and I'll try to do my best.

I doing it for bitcoin in general if it helps to someone, that would be nice.

I have now all the recent posts from r/btc (a major shill nest) loaded.
Total 1202 threads 11 318 posts in my database.

so everyone, have tell me what the fuck you need

EDIT:
 the simplest thing i can do for you is the frequency of individual words in posts

[Fatman3001]

blocks are completely full
every single one
my 1cent fee tx has yet to be mined

They are full precisely because almost all near-zero fee transactions are currently included.

Are all zero fee transactions included in Litecoin, Dash, monero, etherium?  Bitcoin is losing market share because competitors are underpricing us. 

Just open a block explorer and you'll see LTC and DASH has like 4-5-6 tx/block, monero is at 0-1.

BTC does like 2000 txs/block.

You are either gaining market share or you are losing it. It doesn't matter how far of a lead you have. if your competitor is picking up speed and you are slowing down, in a long enough race, you will lose.

no coin has had the heat thrown at it that bitcoin has ... if any of them get big enough to warrant more than a 'meh' then the blow torch comes on them.

I want to see the BS of V. Buterin explode into a full-blown internet rage war, PoS ethereum is going to encourage some truly sick politicking, you thought PoW chinese miners was an 'issue'?

No coin...yet. We seem to be talking past each other. Look, there can be only one "most marketable commodity" by definition. Another word for that term is "money".  In order for something to be marketable, you have to be able to bring it to market. To exchange it.  NO cryptocoin is money yet, but no cryptocoin will ever become money if it can't be exchangeable in the frequencies money needs to be exchanged.

If Etherium has more utility due to smart contracts, turing completeness or whatever, it will gain market share faster. PoS has serious problems and I've always said that, but it turns our PoW also has a serious problem: Chinese electricity and labor cost advantages means ANY PoW plan may result in the same loss of censorship resistance Bitcoin is experiencing with mining overdevelopment and concentration in one political jurisdiction.

 

Caspar? POS? Vitalik's a cowboy. Will any of that even blend?

If Ethereum manages to prove that PoS is safe on a large scale, Bitcoin might have to move to PoS as well.

Have there been any examples of PoS coins running in a true decentralized way?

Maybe Nxt, Peercoin certainly isn't. But those tiny shitcoins don't prove much.

It needs to be proven to handle large economic actors as well as a large number of users and large numbers of bad actors.

Ethereum is interesting in that it's not a currency, so a double spend or similar won't fundamentally harm its raison d'être.

That way they can afford to risk running an unproven technology like this, whereas Bitcoin can't.

"The foundation and its subsidiaries alone simply do not have the manpower to push the entirety of this vision through to its ultimate completion, including proof-of-stake driven scalable blockchains, seamlessly integrated distributed hash tables, programming languages with formal verification systems backed by state-of-the-art theorem provers and dozens of categories of middleware, all by itself; although the foundation and its subsidiaries can, and will, continue to be the primary driver of technology at the core, a highly community-driven model is necessary and essential, both to help the Ethereum ecosystem maximally grow and flourish and to establish Ethereum as a decentralized project which is ultimately owned by all of humanity, and not any one group."

IDK. Seems like a pretty tall order.

https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/09/28/the-evolution-of-ethereum/

Vit B has been selling a large portion of their eth holdings otc during this rally so I think things have changed a bit.