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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21335669 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
kehtolo
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January 05, 2017, 11:26:04 PM

I'm just waiting for the next fresh round of bitcoin obituaries..and the claws to come out...

Then we can go up again..

Wailing and gnashing of teeth makes bitcoin rise..

This will get salty.
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Killerpotleaf
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January 05, 2017, 11:39:40 PM

everyone fucked up on the fee and have bitcoins sorta stuck, this is bullish.
Syke
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January 05, 2017, 11:45:35 PM

I have a "feeling" that we are going to move towards the $1,034 sell wall.. and who knows what is going to happen?  Anyone?

Typically walls get pulled rather than eaten.
gembitz
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January 05, 2017, 11:49:46 PM

#flash crash over ~ lights back on  Grin   ha
sirazimuth
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January 06, 2017, 12:04:30 AM

next 24 hours 5 years are critical...
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January 06, 2017, 12:04:53 AM

tzupy is the new masterluc
Who is tzupy? Never heard about him.

tzupy is the clown that is shorting bitcoin every day since bitcoin was $200.

Craig Wright have now only 995000 BTC for shorting.

He miserably failed to prove it.

He and a group of investors are making patents on btc as we speak. He claims in
2020 he will be allowed 1 mil btc trust. If so imho we are screwed if true. He hates all
 now. Press,us all for not believing it was Satoshi if he is him. He will flush the works imho.

If the 1/2% chance it is true he is Satoshi or the last living of the supposed 3 man group that
Made btc. He's the btc boogieman long shot nightmare. (Damn scared stuff)
Pente
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January 06, 2017, 12:12:37 AM

everyone fucked up on the fee and have bitcoins sorta stuck, this is bullish.

Yea, $0.25 fee for only 2 inputs and 2 outputs and I still got a stuck tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/f981065b98d55be4a86f12158f1066cbbb737b01f3ad71fccfe88984d163e405

Chainsaw
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January 06, 2017, 12:13:41 AM


He and a group of investors are making patents on btc as we speak. He claims in
2020 he will be allowed 1 mil btc trust. If so imho we are screwed if true. He hates all
 now. Press,us all for not believing it was Satoshi if he is him. He will flush the works imho.

If the 1/2% chance it is true he is Satoshi or the last living of the supposed 3 man group that
Made btc. He's the btc boogieman long shot nightmare. (Damn scared stuff)

If Satoshi
  Then Smote Bitcoin

Does not seem like a realistic use case to worry about.  I know few creators that would destroy their own creations to spite their critics.
JimboToronto
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January 06, 2017, 12:25:43 AM

Another day gone (UTC) and finally a red candle after 5 green ones.



Also first day without a CAD ATH  this year, and first buyable dip in 2 months

We needed a correction and we got one. Now it's time to start going up again.

Hope everyone bought some cheap coins.

Killerpotleaf
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January 06, 2017, 12:28:00 AM

everyone fucked up on the fee and have bitcoins sorta stuck, this is bullish.

Yea, $0.25 fee for only 2 inputs and 2 outputs and I still got a stuck tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/f981065b98d55be4a86f12158f1066cbbb737b01f3ad71fccfe88984d163e405



right a quick look at the recent blocks suggest that your 400byte TX should have been ~50cents fee for it to confrim on the next block.

fees are really high these days...

 
r0ach
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January 06, 2017, 12:29:18 AM

Chicken bones say anything can happen.

Chicken bone has decided next stop:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1279383.0
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January 06, 2017, 12:31:05 AM

call me crazy, but the last time the market did this kind of shit was october 2013 right? a sudden retrace?

i would not be surprised if $3k-$4k in a few weeks.
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January 06, 2017, 12:36:50 AM

everyone fucked up on the fee and have bitcoins sorta stuck, this is bullish.

Yea, $0.25 fee for only 2 inputs and 2 outputs and I still got a stuck tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/f981065b98d55be4a86f12158f1066cbbb737b01f3ad71fccfe88984d163e405



right a quick look at the recent blocks suggest that your 400byte TX should have been ~50cents fee for it to confrim on the next block.

fees are really high these days...

 

Well I just hope it will be a bit more calm as soon as this whole price pump/dump will slow down...

I wasn't active for some time and I come back seeing btc flirting with the 1000$ and that's fucking cool!
But I can't even profit from that because of the stuck transactions... And me who believed a few months ago that the LN would be implemented fast ><
It might be only my point of view but putting higher fees isn't a solution here. Because high fees are meant to limit parasite transaction but considering the situation they're not exactly useless tx it's just that everyone want to do something with their btc because of the volatility. So if you try to put higher fees there might be no end to it!
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January 06, 2017, 12:39:31 AM
Last edit: January 06, 2017, 01:03:31 AM by yefi

He and a group of investors are making patents on btc as we speak. He claims in
2020 he will be allowed 1 mil btc trust. If so imho we are screwed if true. He hates all
 now. Press,us all for not believing it was Satoshi if he is him. He will flush the works imho.

If the 1/2% chance it is true he is Satoshi or the last living of the supposed 3 man group that
Made btc. He's the btc boogieman long shot nightmare. (Damn scared stuff)

No, you got it all wrong. I'm bloody Satoshi. Don't believe me? Well, I don't have to provide bloody evidence. Show me I'm not or I fucking walk. I don't give a shit! Show me or bullshit! Fuck off, fuck off, fuck off!
Ted E. Bare
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January 06, 2017, 12:39:38 AM

There will be one more dump to about 700/650 and then it will go up again.

I also think that can happen, but not today.

It will happen about in 5-6 hours

FUD FUD FUD

This obviously never happened.
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January 06, 2017, 12:47:17 AM

everyone fucked up on the fee and have bitcoins sorta stuck, this is bullish.

Yea, $0.25 fee for only 2 inputs and 2 outputs and I still got a stuck tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/f981065b98d55be4a86f12158f1066cbbb737b01f3ad71fccfe88984d163e405



right a quick look at the recent blocks suggest that your 400byte TX should have been ~50cents fee for it to confrim on the next block.

fees are really high these days...

 

What lite wallet would have sent a ~50cents fee for that transaction if set for maximum auto fee? I haven't bothered to check how they calculate automatic fees until now, I just set them on maximum if the mempool was getting spammed. At ~50cents fee I'm wondering if the automatic maximum is enough to avoid a a stuck tx.
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January 06, 2017, 12:57:19 AM


He and a group of investors are making patents on btc as we speak. He claims in
2020 he will be allowed 1 mil btc trust. If so imho we are screwed if true. He hates all
 now. Press,us all for not believing it was Satoshi if he is him. He will flush the works imho.

If the 1/2% chance it is true he is Satoshi or the last living of the supposed 3 man group that
Made btc. He's the btc boogieman long shot nightmare. (Damn scared stuff)

If Satoshi
  Then Smote Bitcoin

Does not seem like a realistic use case to worry about.  I know few creators that would destroy their own creations to spite their critics.


That group of investards paid off his huge debts to the Oz taxman in return for his "BTC patents". He has to keep bullshitting them the same as he had to keep bullshitting the Oz taxman that he is Satoshi. If he really was Satoshi he would have proved it by now to get himself off the hook. He's just buying himself another 3 years before he's in shit with his investards for promising them he's Satoshi when he's not.
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January 06, 2017, 01:13:08 AM

Always been confused by this and maybe someone can help.

How will bitcoin get to a high price if it can't do big jumps in price?

Surely slow and steady will take us tens and tens of years.

How can 10k (for example) be even remotely realistic any time soon?

Not trolling, just wondering your thoughts.

This is a good question, one that I have been thinking about.

Vinny Lingham predicts a slow and steady rise to 2k-3k during 2017. His judgement seems as good as anyone's to me. But I agree there's no way in hell we're gonna go slow and steady to 100k, or even 10k. And yes I'm thinking in log axis. Suppose price multiplies by 2.5 x per year. Five years of that would get us to 100k. But can you imagine that actually happening? Once that pattern establishes itself, someone who thinks in terms of years is gonna try to frontrun it and will be willing to buy at a premium, short term traders will see that happening, the price will go parabolic, everyone will know it's day traders responsible for the short term parabolic rise and will try to front-run them cashing out, big crash, and there you have it. So if it's truly going to the moon, I think it's safe to assume that it will be a volatile ride all the way to the top.

Hmm, that gives me an idea on how to model the magnitude of the swings. If you knew how many speculators there are (in terms of how much capital they are working with) and what time frames they are working in (long term investors or "long-termers," minute to minute day traders of "short-termers," and everything in between), and the first people to go long are the long-termers and the last to go long are the short term day traders, with the in between being the in between, then the parabolic rise ends when the progression from long termers to short termers runs out.

I've been thinking about this too. The moment the market becomes predictable ("it will go to 2k-4k-10k"), it's the exact same moment that someone can front run the legitimate non leveraged buyers - making their purchases much harder (while the leveraged trader gets all the money). From that perspective, some uncertainty with periodic dips is a good thing.

I don't know if I would call it good or bad ... merely inevitable.

Or I suppose what you are saying is that a certain degree of uncertainty is to be expected in a properly functioning market, and is therefore evidence of a properly functioning market. So if we went through a period without the volatility .... that would be a bad thing? hmmm. just thinking out loud.

I wonder if there's a way to calculate what the "expected" amount of volatility should be. I've often wondered whether that might be related to the average spread on the exchanges: smaller spread would enable profitable trading on higher frequency, lower amplitude swings, which in turn would allow (by the reasoning above) parabolic swings to go steeper +/- higher before they burst ...

OK, I got it.
1) Quantify the average spread on the available exchanges.
2) Derive a formula that allows you to calculate the expected volatility based on average spread.
3) Profit.
Lol. Not sure how to profit on that yet ...


Volatility comes from a variety of factors, and not merely the spread of prices between exchanges.

In the case of bitcoin, a small market cap has a lot to do with an ability to push it around, and the fact that it is a paradigm shifting innovation makes for additional difficulties discovering the price and measuring adoption present value and future value.  Furthermore we have speculation and momentum, too and even manipulation in both directions and new tools to short.. and various FUD, etc etc..





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January 06, 2017, 01:41:56 AM

FUD, etc

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January 06, 2017, 01:43:49 AM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-05/very-powerful-people-us-government-want-war-%E2%80%93-their-sales-pitch

The rising hysteria about Russia is best understood as fulfilling two needs for Official Washington: the Military Industrial Complex’s transitioning from the “war on terror” to a more lucrative “new cold war” – and blunting the threat that a President Trump poses to the neoconservative/liberal-interventionist foreign-policy establishment.
 
By hyping the Russian “threat,” the neocons and their liberal-hawk sidekicks, who include much of the mainstream U.S. news media, can guarantee bigger military budgets from Congress. The hype also sets in motion a blocking maneuver to impinge on any significant change in direction for U.S. foreign policy under Trump.
 
– From the post: Who Benefits from War with Russia?
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