Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Stop pretending you know what you're talking about. There are hundreds of independent developers busy writing and testing code and weighing and discussing all the possible options. Out of that complicated process it was determined that Segwit is our best option right now and that large blocks (>4MB) are too risky for the stability and decentralized nature of the network at this point. After Segwit is deployed it will also be safer to increase the blocksize as Segwit also solves the quadratic scaling of hashed data. Hard forking now to larger blocks without first activating Segwit and solving quadratic hash scaling is just stupid and you'll also never get consensus for that. So why don't you stop complaining about Core and actually look and try to understand what it is they're doing? The divide in the community is purely based on ignorance and conspiracy thinking.

atm the divide between miners and devs are based on insults and broken promises. the code is out, but 3/4 of miners won't run it. what's the way forward?

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[Cassius]

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Stop pretending you know what you're talking about. There are hundreds of independent developers busy writing and testing code and weighing and discussing all the possible options. Out of that complicated process it was determined that Segwit is our best option right now and that large blocks (>4MB) are too risky for the stability and decentralized nature of the network at this point. After Segwit is deployed it will also be safer to increase the blocksize as Segwit also solves the quadratic scaling of hashed data. Hard forking now to larger blocks without first activating Segwit and solving quadratic hash scaling is just stupid and you'll also never get consensus for that. So why don't you stop complaining about Core and actually look and try to understand what it is they're doing? The divide in the community is purely based on ignorance and conspiracy thinking.

atm the divide between miners and devs are based on insults and broken promises. the code is out, but 3/4 of miners won't run it. what's the way forward?

This discussion used to annoy me a lot. But I'm increasingly minded that the market will sort it out. Ultimately, bitcoin will fit into whatever niche the market deems it suits best. I don't think it will ever (for many years) be irrelevant, but it will settle into the place it deserves.
Big blocks, small blocks, the market doesn't care. If there's an application that is required and bitcoin doesn't suit that, something else will take its place for that sector. Bitcoin as it stands will become whatever it is best suited for. My best guess at the moment is that it will be a store of value and currency of settlement between other protocols that are more specialised, thanks to its network effect and proven security.
There's a saying you get the politicians you deserve. I feel it's much the same for bitcoin.

[Bitmore]

Stop pretending that the present technology couldn't handle large blocks.

Stop pretending you know what you're talking about. There are hundreds of independent developers busy writing and testing code and weighing and discussing all the possible options. Out of that complicated process it was determined that Segwit is our best option right now and that large blocks (>4MB) are too risky for the stability and decentralized nature of the network at this point. After Segwit is deployed it will also be safer to increase the blocksize as Segwit also solves the quadratic scaling of hashed data. Hard forking now to larger blocks without first activating Segwit and solving quadratic hash scaling is just stupid and you'll also never get consensus for that. So why don't you stop complaining about Core and actually look and try to understand what it is they're doing? The divide in the community is purely based on ignorance and conspiracy thinking.

atm the divide between miners and devs are based on insults and broken promises. the code is out, but 3/4 of miners won't run it. what's the way forward?

This discussion used to annoy me a lot. But I'm increasingly minded that the market will sort it out. Ultimately, bitcoin will fit into whatever niche the market deems it suits best. I don't think it will ever (for many years) be irrelevant, but it will settle into the place it deserves.
Big blocks, small blocks, the market doesn't care. If there's an application that is required and bitcoin doesn't suit that, something else will take its place for that sector. Bitcoin as it stands will become whatever it is best suited for. My best guess at the moment is that it will be a store of value and currency of settlement between other protocols that are more specialised, thanks to its network effect and proven security.
There's a saying you get the politicians you deserve. I feel it's much the same for bitcoin.

I agree.  Bitcoin will have a market, the question is what?  A currency?  A commodity?  A store of wealth?  I think the latter two for now until the tax issues are dealt with;  Spending bitcoin today like a currency, in the US, requires you pay capital gains on the price you spent it -vs- bought it.  And that gets very complicated, unless our tax laws are changed.
So for now I see the main market for Bitcoin as a safety net, life boat, storage of wealth, especially in an inflationary environment.

[Killerpotleaf]

if you care about bitcoin miners continuing to provide a high level of power to mine and secure bitcoin...
then give them the means to control blocksize
with some control over blocksize miners can balance the fee pressure to maximize fees.

[K~Ehleyr]

Looks like these minor fluctuations are getting much tighter now, breakout must be soon.

But which way will it break??

I call UP!!!! 

[Killerpotleaf]

if you care about bitcoin miners continuing to provide a high level of power to mine and secure bitcoin...
then give them the means to control blocksize
with some control over blocksize miners can balance the fee pressure to maximize fees.

And if we don't? If we think of them as a tool, sort of like hiring people and asking half of them to dig holes and the other half to cover those holes up just to prove some work was done. If too many line up willing to do that you reduce their compensation, if not enough show up you raise the salary. But now these people keep showing up and asking that they control how many holes they dig. And then hire shills to run ads and try to influence your decision  

if you dont care about maximum fee revenue for miner, which in turn provides a greater incentive to secure bitcoin.
...
another blockchain will.

[DaRude]

if you care about bitcoin miners continuing to provide a high level of power to mine and secure bitcoin...
then give them the means to control blocksize
with some control over blocksize miners can balance the fee pressure to maximize fees.

And if we don't? If we think of them as a tool, sort of like hiring people and asking half of them to dig holes and the other half to cover those holes up just to prove some work was done. If too many line up willing to do that you reduce their compensation, if not enough show up you raise the salary. But now these people keep showing up and asking that they control how many holes they dig. And then hire shills to run ads and try to influence your decision  

if you dont care about maximum fee revenue for miner, which in turn provides a greater incentive to secure bitcoin.
...
another blockchain will.

Yes finally!! We are fine with that. Please start another blockchain as soon as you wish, let us know if you need any help in the alt section of this forum.

[Cassius]

Looks like these minor fluctuations are getting much tighter now, breakout must be soon.

But which way will it break??

I call UP!!!! 

I do not like the falling volume.

[bitcoinvest]

by looking sell order on Kraken at this time we need theoriticaly about 1050 BTC to go to 850euro / BTC.

But if you take a closer look to the buy orders with the same BTC we go to 750 euro / BTC.

It's nothing more than my feeling but only by considering that i feel we are at a stable phase and because of weekend i not expect nothing important to happen or UP or Down.

I believe we will play at + 10 -10 EURO if nothing crazy happens. But general the trend is up, slow but up.

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like these minor fluctuations are getting much tighter now, breakout must be soon.

But which way will it break??

I call UP!!!! 

I do not like the falling volume.

You gotta consider this trade volume matter in context, which means zooming out a bit to either weekly or 3 days.. you cannot really look only at daily volume or time intervals shorter than a few days in order to get a decent grasp of the situation... that's my thinking.

The mere fact that trade volume may decrease for a few days is not indicative that the price battle is over or that there is some kind of manipulation that is about to take place or major change in direction. 

A temporary drop in trade volume for a few days is merely an indication that some of the parties are regrouping.. which could take a few days and even trickle down for nearly a week before they resume the battle (in a more voluminous way).

[Killerpotleaf]

Looks like these minor fluctuations are getting much tighter now, breakout must be soon.

But which way will it break??

I call UP!!!! 

I do not like the falling volume.

You gotta consider this trade volume matter in context, which means zooming out a bit to either weekly or 3 days.. you cannot really look only at daily volume or time intervals shorter than a few days in order to get a decent grasp of the situation... that's my thinking.

The mere fact that trade volume may decrease for a few days is not indicative that the price battle is over or that there is some kind of manipulation that is about to take place or major change in direction. 

A temporary drop in trade volume for a few days is merely an indication that some of the parties are regrouping.. which could take a few days and even trickle down for nearly a week before they resume the battle (in a more voluminous way).

I like falling volume, tells me a move is coming.

a bunch of longs appeared to have covered at 820-830
shorts seem unwilling to short at this level.

i'm thinking tonight we move above 830.

[Elwar]

Would be great if those that want to do block size discussion would make a note at the beginning of their post like:
Block Size Discussion:

That would help a lot in skipping posts easier. Thanks.




Or...discuss it in a separate thread...like in an appropriate subforum...

[arklan]

Would be great if those that want to do block size discussion would make a note at the beginning of their post like:
Block Size Discussion:

That would help a lot in skipping posts easier. Thanks.




Or...discuss it in a separate thread...like in an appropriate subforum...

welcome to the wall observer thread. you sound new here.

[Cassius]

Looks like these minor fluctuations are getting much tighter now, breakout must be soon.

But which way will it break??

I call UP!!!! 

I do not like the falling volume.

You gotta consider this trade volume matter in context, which means zooming out a bit to either weekly or 3 days.. you cannot really look only at daily volume or time intervals shorter than a few days in order to get a decent grasp of the situation... that's my thinking.

The mere fact that trade volume may decrease for a few days is not indicative that the price battle is over or that there is some kind of manipulation that is about to take place or major change in direction. 

A temporary drop in trade volume for a few days is merely an indication that some of the parties are regrouping.. which could take a few days and even trickle down for nearly a week before they resume the battle (in a more voluminous way).

I like falling volume, tells me a move is coming.

a bunch of longs appeared to have covered at 820-830
shorts seem unwilling to short at this level.

i'm thinking tonight we move above 830.

Maybe. The rising price/falling volume makes me a little nervous about which direction the next move will be.
Normally I wouldn't care too much but I get paid tomorrow for 3 months work and it's going to make a difference 

[Killerpotleaf]

Looks like these minor fluctuations are getting much tighter now, breakout must be soon.

But which way will it break??

I call UP!!!!  

I do not like the falling volume.

You gotta consider this trade volume matter in context, which means zooming out a bit to either weekly or 3 days.. you cannot really look only at daily volume or time intervals shorter than a few days in order to get a decent grasp of the situation... that's my thinking.

The mere fact that trade volume may decrease for a few days is not indicative that the price battle is over or that there is some kind of manipulation that is about to take place or major change in direction.  

A temporary drop in trade volume for a few days is merely an indication that some of the parties are regrouping.. which could take a few days and even trickle down for nearly a week before they resume the battle (in a more voluminous way).

I like falling volume, tells me a move is coming.

a bunch of longs appeared to have covered at 820-830
shorts seem unwilling to short at this level.

i'm thinking tonight we move above 830.

Maybe. The rising price/falling volume makes me a little nervous about which direction the next move will be.
Normally I wouldn't care too much but I get paid tomorrow for 3 months work and it's going to make a difference  

the way things are shaping up i think 830 will become sticky

we go over it and longs cover and shorts build,
we go under and short cover and longs build....

we might have done it, we have finally stabilized bitcoin!

[yonton]

do person to person transactions, localbitcoin, darkmarket etc.. have much of an impact on bitcoins price? Or is the price mostly determined/driven by exchanges?

[European Central Bank]

do person to person transactions, localbitcoin, darkmarket etc.. have much of an impact on bitcoins price? Or is the price mostly determined/driven by exchanges?

zero. all of it happens on exchanges. some of the price index sites include them in their weighted averages but nothing more.

but the people who sell via p2p presumably get most of their coins from exchanges as they're cheaper so there will be some buying pressure.

[bitserve]

do person to person transactions, localbitcoin, darkmarket etc.. have much of an impact on bitcoins price? Or is the price mostly determined/driven by exchanges?

The price is obviously determined by exchange prices... but OTC transactions indirectly influence the price by affecting the availability of coins in the exchanges. Also if there is scarcity of coins to be sold OTC, the price rises and buyers resort to exchanges, thus rising "the price", and the oppossite is also true.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

The big three Chinese exchanges (OKCoin, Huobi, and BTCC) have all disabled margin trading for all clients onshore in China. This is in response to the recent on-site “inspections” (aka Ride The Red Dildo) by the PBOC.

With margin trading eliminated, the question remains what happens with existing leveraged positions. If the PBOC forces the exchanges to unwind all positions, that will negatively impact the price. The CNY spot book of each exchange is a combination of leveraged and unleveraged traders. The ratio of leveraged longs to shorts is of interest. If the net leveraged positioning is long, that means a combination of leveraged shorts and long sells were matched against them. Given that we just witnessed a new all time high in the CNY price of Bitcoin, I estimate leveraged longs outnumber leveraged shorts. In the event of a margin call, as the exchange unwinds both sides, the net effect will be a drop in price. The magnitude of the drop depends on the size of the imbalance.

30% initial margin (3.33x leverage) was the normal amount of margin offered. The collateral will be exhausted if the price moves 30% below or above the entry price of longs and shorts respectively. Given that the exchanges themselves lent funds to speculators, should the price move further than 30% they would suffer a principal loss. For illustration purposes, assume that the long / short ratio is 100 XBT / 50 XBT. The 50 XBT shortfall was provided by long sellers of Bitcoin. If the book was unwound, 50 XBT would need to be sold into the order-book. Hopefully, the order-book liquidity is sufficient such that the average execution price is no lower than 30% (the initial margin) below the average entry price of all long positions.

However, now that margin is removed, the actual liquidity will be substantially lower. If the margin positions were to be unwound, it would happen at the worst possible time. Some white knight whale would need to fully fund purchases of Bitcoin as it was dumped onto the market. Last week the BitMEX Bitcoin / USD 100x leveraged swap, XBTUSD, traded a record of nearly 100,000 XBT over a 24-hour period. The actual open interest fluctuated between 10-20x lower than the recorded trading volume. Given that trading fees are 0 in China, I estimate open interest is 100x lower than recorded trading volumes.

The big three exchanges routinely traded around 5 million Bitcoin per day during the recent pump. Using a 100x divisor, assume that each exchange’s actual open interest of loans is 50,000 XBT. Also assume that longs represent 60% of that total, and shorts 40%. That leaves a net 10,000 Bitcoin of required selling on each exchange. 30,000 Bitcoin in total must be sold across all the exchanges. The differentiations between the exchanges is quite small, which means that they all have the same customers. It is also the same handful of market makers responsible for all the liquidity in China. As trades happen on OKCoin, liquidity will be removed from Huobi and BTCC simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot sum all the liquidity offered by each exchange.

30,000 Bitcoin is worth 268 million CNY. That is not chump change when you consider all purchases must be fully funded. If we take the most liquid order-book (OKCoin), how low would the price go if 30,000 Bitcoin were dumped?

Each day brings new developments on how the PBOC is constricting business operations of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges. The Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) will depress buyer appetite further decreasing on-exchange liquidity. The pace of the forced margin call dictated by the PBOC will determine how far the price dips. I haven’t performed any extensive analysis on the order-book depth but my finger in the air estimation is a 10% to 15% drawdown from current levels. Hence my short term price target for Bitcoin is $650.

If and when the PBOC forces a China Bitcoin margin call, it will be an amazing buying opportunity. Without leverage, the only marginal sellers are Chinese miners. After the plunge, the marginal demand for Bitcoin will be higher than the supply offered by miners. The demand for a store of wealth not controlled by a government or central bank remains strong in China. I reiterate my call for USDCNY of 9.00 by the end of 2017. That would take Bitcoin substantially over its recent all time high of 8,895.98 CNY. It is still too early to tell whether the unwinding of margin positions will be orderly or chaotic. Much depends on exchange CEO’s fluffing skills. Get on your knees, boys: for the sake of Bitcoin.

reprinted from Bitmex Crypto Trader

[Cassius]

we might have done it, we have finally stabilized bitcoin!

LOL isn't that a bit like saying Elton John's turned straight because he hasn't shagged a man for two days? 

Why did that specific analogy spring to mind?!

I guess I just have a talent for weird, random but astute analogies 

Well thanks for the mental picture.
I think the 800s will be sticky all the same.