Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Paashaas]

Weekend pump to $850+ woud be fantastic.

Let's continue this bull run, gz to the people who bought at $730+

[1714495028]

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[Torque]

Same pattern as June/July.

Guys, this is going to bounce hard.  820-830 should be a bottom from this point forward.

I would buy if I had any fiat left. 

Half my standby fiat just went back in at 798.5 - if I could have got into Stamp earlier, I might have nicked it lower.

I hope you're right, Sir - next resistance is probably 5000 CNY level - below that...? Jeez!

Now the the silly dumping is over, I still assert my original prediction.  820 will become the new floor moving forward.

[JayJuanGee]

Today has not been the best day for me. The guy I was gonna trade half a dozen bitcoins with suddenly dropped off the face of the earth, so now I'm stuck with useless fiat instead of cheap coins. Can't get it back on kraken until sometime next week because banks break on weekends (they really need to fix that bug).

[...]

I guess he should hurry then! ... But probably he has a week or so before the price goes mental upwards.

Even though I sometimes get inklings about the short-term direction of price, I never feel very confident about my inklings until after I see it happen.

Therefore, I would not sell my bitcoins in the expectation to use that money to buy from someone who is 10% or so likely to flake (sure flakiness varies, but it is NOT a non-existent or even a low probable risk).

To be honest... there is no cataclysmic event happening soon. And from what it looks, the market is being duped.. So... they can't keep this up for much longer. But I guess the exchanges took enough profits from the stupid leverage gamblers.

But eh.. what do I know? .. I'm a simple man, doing plain right simple trades, that takes small percentages of profits.  

Difficult to know how long they can keep dumping coins... and maybe get others to follow... ?

[savetherainforest]

Today has not been the best day for me. The guy I was gonna trade half a dozen bitcoins with suddenly dropped off the face of the earth, so now I'm stuck with useless fiat instead of cheap coins. Can't get it back on kraken until sometime next week because banks break on weekends (they really need to fix that bug).

[...]

I guess he should hurry then! ... But probably he has a week or so before the price goes mental upwards.

Even though I sometimes get inklings about the short-term direction of price, I never feel very confident about my inklings until after I see it happen.

Therefore, I would not sell my bitcoins in the expectation to use that money to buy from someone who is 10% or so likely to flake (sure flakiness varies, but it is NOT a non-existent or even a low probable risk).

To be honest... there is no cataclysmic event happening soon. And from what it looks, the market is being duped.. So... they can't keep this up for much longer. But I guess the exchanges took enough profits from the stupid leverage gamblers.

But eh.. what do I know? .. I'm a simple man, doing plain right simple trades, that takes small percentages of profits.  

Difficult to know how long they can keep dumping coins... and maybe get others to follow... ?

Well from the post of the other guy above... it looks like no more more leveraged gambling in China. ( Because Chinese are smart! )

And they know that in the long term, the market can't be manipulated in BTCiTcoin and they can't come off as the bad guy to their people when they need to hand out the cash like a bankrupt casino. And exchanges will have to disrupt prices at their own financial risk.  ( I say this because they tried it and they got burned, they saw the financial burden for trying to manipulate just to keep the people happy! )

So basically we are heading towards a pillar of stability in BTCiTcoin wealth!    



*edit:   I might have sounded a bit confusing... So there where 2 manipulators.. the exchange and the China gov. The China gov was trying to keep the price in place and the exchanges was trying to force the hands of faith by forcing the hand of the masses and herding them like sheep in the aggressive / violent moves.



*edit2:   And when saying that exchanges will have to disrupt prices at their own financial risk... I mean that they will have to sell without leverage. Just plain simple trades! Traditional & Honest!  

[Chainsaw]

Nearing the top of the descending wedge.
I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large.

[toknormal]

Nearing the top of the descending wedge.
I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large.

Looks like your wedge vs my 5200 support line.

I hope your wrong cos I need to pay a few bills and am holding Clambering back up the castle wall - I just hope nobody's waiting with a big bucket of boiling hot tar above.

(P.S. What's the breakout level according to your analysis ?)

[becoin]

Oh shit, after reading this and realizing the possible implications, I will have to be extra careful after opening a long...

You've never had a long position before, Tzupy. What's the matter with you?

[soullyG]

I hope your wrong cos I need to pay a few bills and am holding Clambering back up the castle wall - I just hope nobody's waiting with a big bucket of boiling hot tar above.

I love this mental image!

[DoktorKopf]

This China 'clamp down' is this cycle's equivalent of the Silk Road bust.

At the time many thought it was another death (coz illegalz is all wot its good for), but in fact it cleared the decks for new money: people that had been aware but reluctant to get in because of the perceived criminal monoculture. PBOC now doing similar by actually doing their job (not everything is anti-Bitcoin conspiracy) and being seen to protect the next wave of new money that's hovering around, tempted to invest, in Middle Earth.

Applying retail standards to the markets is necessary for the next wave. The unregulated cowboy traders have had their fun, but Granny Shopkeeper would be mad to trust them with her savings. PBOC cleaning out the stables. so we can gallop to a new dawn. Forward comrades!

[Chainsaw]

Nearing the top of the descending wedge.
I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large.

Looks like your wedge vs my 5200 support line.

I hope your wrong cos I need to pay a few bills and am holding Clambering back up the castle wall - I just hope nobody's waiting with a big bucket of boiling hot tar above.

(P.S. What's the breakout level according to your analysis ?)

I threw the above chart together too quickly, and failed to switch to logarithmic view. It affects the top by a few dollars.
It's a descending line so the price goes down over time, but on the 15m chart right now, I got $840.47, Bitfinex.

When we were tossing ideas around yesterday, one (bullish) possibility is that the upper trendline is 'ignored', and a new top is defined on volume. Best case, that would happen to reshape the descending wedge (which is already a bullish reversal) into a descending channel. That would complete the multi-year cup and handle pattern in a more textbook manner.

So overall I think it's a relatively bullish period:
-If we break up, current price is higher and it improves prospects.
-If resistance holds, it reaffirms the pattern and makes a subsequent retest of the low more likely to hold.

[aztecminer]

This China 'clamp down' is this cycle's equivalent of the Silk Road bust.

At the time many thought it was another death (coz illegalz is all wot its good for), but in fact it cleared the decks for new money: people that had been aware but reluctant to get in because of the perceived criminal monoculture. PBOC now doing similar by actually doing their job (not everything is anti-Bitcoin conspiracy) and being seen to protect the next wave of new money that's hovering around, tempted to invest, in Middle Earth.

Applying retail standards to the markets is necessary for the next wave. The unregulated cowboy traders have had their fun, but Granny Shopkeeper would be mad to trust them with her savings. PBOC cleaning out the stables. so we can gallop to a new dawn. Forward comrades!

get ready for the next leg down.. we are going back to $250 bitcoins.

[Miz4r]

Time to climb the wall of worry again, $900 within 9 hours I say.

[abercrombie]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

like this chart. 

are we rich yet??

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Up a little today... $835 (Bitcoinaverage).

I see Huobi has passed BTC-e and almost caught up with Stamp. I guess the Chinese have realized the PBOC rumors were mostly BS and the panic dump was totally uncalled-for.

It will probably take some time to build up upward momentum, but I think the slide has ended.

[ImI]

There will be one more dump to about 700/650 and then it will go up again.

no, there won't.  

We wait to tomorrow and see who is right If The price drops to my prediction dont forget to comment

i am sure you won't forget.  

Cu tomorrow then

Hey it seems it not happend so fast but it seems to be happening now sllllloooowwwwwwwww

Wrong again.

[K~Ehleyr]

So if I've been following this thread right, the next 24 hours are critical!!!

Meanwhile some of us have spent up and face yet another critical weekend with no fiat on the exchanges 

[kurious]

Watching Stamp to see if we have really turned.

The book is pretty thin - 1000 BTC either bought or sold will make a huge price difference, so Stamp (which looks a leader right now) is very vulnerable to whale whims...

Tread carefully. I am looking for a dip to blow the last of my fiat, I put half of what I sold at the high 900s back in at 798 yesterday and then it went below.  Thankfully I am ok now - but I haven't got a clue if I will get one more dip or not for the other half.  Let's see.

EDIT:  Wishing everyone a filthy French Weekend of screen action.

[arklan]

Watching Stamp to see if we have really turned.

The book is pretty thin - 1000 BTC either bought or sold will make a huge price difference, so Stamp (which looks a leader right now) is very vulnerable to whale whims...

Tread carefully. I am looking for a dip to blow the last of my fiat, I put half of what I sold at the high 900s back in at 798 yesterday and then it went below.  Thankfully I am ok now - but I haven't got a clue if I will get one more dip or not for the other half.  Let's see.

EDIT:  Wishing everyone a filthy French Weekend of screen action.

filthy french weekend?

[jbreher]

I can't believe we're back on about block size again. My new compass is $700. I can't die holding bitcoins.

WTF? If you die holding any monetary asset, but no Bitcoin, I will have lost respect for you.

Lol. I plan to go out in a blaze of reckless spending. Is that so wrong?

Not at all. I completely misinterpreted your statement. Carry on.

We'll see if last night's drunk sends me out in a blaze of reckless posting

[valta4065]

Watching Stamp to see if we have really turned.

The book is pretty thin - 1000 BTC either bought or sold will make a huge price difference, so Stamp (which looks a leader right now) is very vulnerable to whale whims...

Tread carefully. I am looking for a dip to blow the last of my fiat, I put half of what I sold at the high 900s back in at 798 yesterday and then it went below.  Thankfully I am ok now - but I haven't got a clue if I will get one more dip or not for the other half.  Let's see.

EDIT:  Wishing everyone a filthy French Weekend of screen action.

A filthy French Weekend?
You mean you wish us to all raise the white flag together
Doesn't make much sense man