Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[simmo77]

This sort of discourse is why I love this thread.

Sorting through the memes, Trains/Rockets/Wile E Coyote gifs, chart posts with "TA" which is neither technical nor analytical, completely valueless comments "Is crypto done", long winded dribble, diatribes, plus tons & tons of bull and bear shit - occasionally there is some insightful and interesting discussion taking place.

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[savetherainforest]

Meanwhile, it's very difficult for them to stop use of metals no matter what the law is.

What attribute do you believe monetary metals possess that is not possessed by cryptocurrencies? From my understanding, crypto is the better bet. After all, we can hide an unlimited amount of it in secure fashion.

The best bet in the long run is determined by whatever you believe makes up the base of Exter's pyramid:



I personally don't see bitcoin occupying the same bottom slot as monetary metals so it would have to be one higher on the same level as fiat.  We live in a closed ecosystem and the blockchain for metals was created by two neutron stars colliding, so unless you can replicate that, it's not very easy to tamper with the metals blockchain.  People spam the word "anti-fragile" for Bitcoin, but it's just not in the same category of security as requiring two neutron stars to alter.  As you can see, Exter's pyramid is mostly a scale of real anti-fragility.

People like Bitcoin because they look at it as a free money tree of upward growth.  Assuming the market cap had topped out on both metals and bitcoin and you were forced to go all-in on one, which one are you going to pick?  The aggregate market will likely gravitate towards the most anti-fragile solution in that case if the upside is tapped out.  The only reason people hold Bitcoin instead is because they believe it can have higher yield in the short term as a speculative instrument.

Since less than 1% of people own metals, and even less own Bitcoin, they both have a lot of speculative upside.  It's all about measuring the risk and upside vs one another.  Metals do have huge upside of probably around $5000-$20,000 for an ounce of gold and $166-$1333 for an ounce of silver in current purchasing power.  This would be an average of a +10.6x for gold and +45x for silver.  This means Bitcoin needs to have greater than a 10-45x upside ($8840 - $39,600 per coin) for you to consider it since the risk is higher.

To flatten out some of the noise here, let's assume partipants are 50/50 gold silver split and give you a +27.5x gain.  In that case, Bitcoin would need to have upside potential of $24,200 per coin to be worth holding as a long term investment and not day trading (as of market prices today).  Without Lightning network or a block size increase, I think Bitcoin might get stuck in the $10k-20k range.  So you have these two variables in bitcoin throwing a big monkey wrench into what potential price can be.

Anyway, as you can see from my numbers, it is difficult to advocate a 100% all-in position on Bitcoin with 0 metals even if you are a crazed gambler seeking maximum yield.  If you fall in that category of seeking max yield while still having some type of safety, you would likely be something like 50% metals 50% bitcoin at most, or even 70% metals 30% bitcoin due to the risks involved.  (Notice I did say you need to be a crazed gambler to have 30-50% of your money in Bitcoin).

Gold is endless. You can mine the sh!t out of it! ... BTCiTcoin is NOT!

And there is the problem that gold has other properties and values for other industries. Meaning there will not be enough to make it usable for the casual currency debacle.

While on the other hand... BTCiTcoin multiplies by itself. And I will give you an example: "in the future when the price gets stable, the only way for bitcoin to go is up or sideways. And in a normal supermarket/wallmart ... one day you will have some prices and in the next day you will have lower prices, the store gets paid something that will rise in value while the prices drop every day, meaning the unstoppable rise of the value of money will make bitcoin a consumerism currency. Because each day prices drop and it encourages you to use/spend more!"

Its like 1 chocolate or a bar of candy will cost 10 times less the next year or in 2-3 years depending on inflation of bitcoin. And on the long term... in 500 years some planets will cost a few bitcons themselves, so basically you will mine all the gold you can want from those planets.

[Tzupy]

Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.

Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.

China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.

I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.

You still think we have further to go down?

I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.

Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.

At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.

Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...

The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.

Support was broken just after I went to sleep, but so far it bounced, we'll see what happens during the next hours, will the drop continue or not?
There is another possibility, that we already completed A and now we are actually during the B... The initial dump was so fast that it compressed the waves and made counting difficult.

[Karartma1]

This sort of discourse is why I love this thread.

Sorting through the memes, Trains/Rockets/Wile E Coyote gifs, chart posts with "TA" which is neither technical nor analytical, completely valueless comments "Is crypto done", long winded dribble, diatribes, plus tons & tons of bull and bear shit - occasionally there is some insightful and interesting discussion taking place.

I second you completely. It's like finding a needle in a haystack: I like it because this is like everywhere. There are true pearls scattered all over this thread (and the forum at large). If one finds them, well you know about it. 
Sometimes I just have to remember who said it and some words used in a post and I am able to find everything I need.
Nothing gets lost here

[ErisDiscordia]

This sort of discourse is why I love this thread.

Sorting through the memes, Trains/Rockets/Wile E Coyote gifs, chart posts with "TA" which is neither technical nor analytical, completely valueless comments "Is crypto done", long winded dribble, diatribes, plus tons & tons of bull and bear shit - occasionally there is some insightful and interesting discussion taking place.

Except that nowadays that is considered to be off-topic and deleted by moderators 

[mymenace]

top out about 1000-1050

dropping to 750-800

averaging out about the magical $888 signifying the Chinese triple fortune numerology conspiracy theory

for rocket ships and moons to start appearing

is this where the Chinese triple fortune numerology conspiracy theory kicks in

[jbreher]

One of bitcoin's largest weaknesses is the rough consensus attack (as seen demonstrated on Ethereum), so that undermines the concept that just belief it is money is good enough

Not to disparage Ethereum (::ahem!:, but what happens to J. Random Crapcoin in the face of investard suicide has little demonstrative application to Bitcoin. Not to say that it is computationally impossible for such a thing to occur. I just don't expect it to. And even if it did, then what of it? As I recall, the aggregate value of ETH + ETC shortly after the split was greater than before the split.

Right now, at that layer, metals occupy a 99.8% wedge, with crypto making up the adjacent 0.2% sliver -- but growing quickly ( on a scale encompassing decades).

This is actually not true in the context that the silver market cap is barely bigger than Bitcoin.  

It is absolutely true. I did not just pick that 99.8% figure at random. Last time I ran the figures (admittedly a couple years ago), if bitcoin market cap rose to equal total monetary gold in circulation, divided by (ultimately) 21M, comes up with a figure slightly north of half-million USD per BTC. In the face of this ~500x in comparison to today's value, the silver market equivalency is a rounding error.

You might posit that silver has explosive growth in its near future. So much that it dwarfs Bitcoin's expected explosive growth. And I might ridicule that thesis. In fact, I will.

Out of all the noble metals that exist, the only ones suited to be used as currency are gold and silver.  

Unsubstantiated claim not supported by facts entered into evidence. Though this would seem to be irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

[iikun]

Meanwhile, it's very difficult for them to stop use of metals no matter what the law is.

What attribute do you believe monetary metals possess that is not possessed by cryptocurrencies? From my understanding, crypto is the better bet. After all, we can hide an unlimited amount of it in secure fashion.

The best bet in the long run is determined by whatever you believe makes up the base of Exter's pyramid:

I personally don't see bitcoin occupying the same bottom slot as monetary metals so it would have to be one higher on the same level as fiat.  We live in a closed ecosystem and the blockchain for metals was created by two neutron stars colliding, so unless you can replicate that, it's not very easy to tamper with the metals blockchain.  People spam the word "anti-fragile" for Bitcoin, but it's just not in the same category of security as requiring two neutron stars to alter.  As you can see, Exter's pyramid is mostly a scale of real anti-fragility.

People like Bitcoin because they look at it as a free money tree of upward growth.  Assuming the market cap had topped out on both metals and bitcoin and you were forced to go all-in on one, which one are you going to pick?  The aggregate market will likely gravitate towards the most anti-fragile solution in that case if the upside is tapped out.  The only reason people hold Bitcoin instead is because they believe it can have higher yield in the short term as a speculative instrument.

Since less than 1% of people own metals, and even less own Bitcoin, they both have a lot of speculative upside.  It's all about measuring the risk and upside vs one another.  Metals do have huge upside of probably around $5000-$20,000 for an ounce of gold and $166-$1333 for an ounce of silver in current purchasing power.  This would be an average of a +10.6x for gold and +45x for silver.  This means Bitcoin needs to have greater than a 10-45x upside ($8840 - $39,600 per coin) for you to consider it since the risk is higher.

To flatten out some of the noise here, let's assume partipants are 50/50 gold silver split and give you a +27.5x gain.  In that case, Bitcoin would need to have upside potential of $24,200 per coin to be worth holding as a long term investment and not day trading (as of market prices today).  Without Lightning network or a block size increase, I think Bitcoin might get stuck in the $10k-20k range.  So you have these two variables in bitcoin throwing a big monkey wrench into what potential price can be.

Anyway, as you can see from my numbers, it is difficult to advocate a 100% all-in position on Bitcoin with 0 metals even if you are a crazed gambler seeking maximum yield.  If you fall in that category of seeking max yield while still having some type of safety, you would likely be something like 50% metals 50% bitcoin at most, or even 70% metals 30% bitcoin due to the risks involved.  (Notice I did say you need to be a crazed gambler to have 30-50% of your money in Bitcoin).

Gold is endless. You can mine the sh!t out of it! ... BTCiTcoin is NOT!

And there is the problem that gold has other properties and values for other industries. Meaning there will not be enough to make it usable for the casual currency debacle.

While on the other hand... BTCiTcoin multiplies by itself. And I will give you an example: "in the future when the price gets stable, the only way for bitcoin to go is up or sideways. And in a normal supermarket/wallmart ... one day you will have some prices and in the next day you will have lower prices, the store gets paid something that will rise in value while the prices drop every day, meaning the unstoppable rise of the value of money will make bitcoin a consumerism currency. Because each day prices drop and it encourages you to use/spend more!"

Its like 1 chocolate or a bar of candy will cost 10 times less the next year or in 2-3 years depending on inflation of bitcoin. And on the long term... in 500 years some planets will cost a few bitcons themselves, so basically you will mine all the gold you can want from those planets.

You are right about Bitcoin being limited. But we have yet to find out what percentage of the market cares about Bitcoin for actual use vs the percentage who see/use it for speculative investment purposes; Bitcoin's value will have an ultimate peak. Where that is nobody knows of course but perhaps it will become more apparent after the next halving or thereabouts.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Still looks bullish to me. The media buzz for $1000 breakthrough and gold parity has created a new wave of broader interest that will need some time to on-board successfully. Bounce around here for a while (new post-halving $888-950 mining floor as per call in May-June 2016) and then climb up to resistance at ATH and recent peak $1180-1200, spend some time pushing against that before breakout with sharp move higher .... $1800 by late March still doable.

[rjclarke2000]

This is a very harsh thing to say on a Monday morning here in the U.K. ^^^^


can't you just be bullish. At least wait a few more hours.

[marcus_of_augustus]

  sheesh ... I thought we ditched all the ether huffers?

[marcus_of_augustus]

sheesh ... I thought we ditched all the ether huffers?

Sorry to ruin your overproductive circlejerk

you're childish crayon drawings on charts aren't ruining much beyond any kind of credibility you might have had ... didn't realise you were a ether huffer but your response indicates ... if the cap fits and all that.

Must be that time for the altcoin trolls and banksters ether huffers to flood the bitcoin forums with FUD brigades again, how predictable and boring, so much desperate me tooism.

2017 looks likely to be the year for institutions to open positions in bitcoin, pathetic little bear scalpers like tzupy and his brigade will have to find something else to do besides dreaming up endless FUD.

[JayJuanGee]

This sort of discourse is why I love this thread.

Sorting through the memes, Trains/Rockets/Wile E Coyote gifs, chart posts with "TA" which is neither technical nor analytical, completely valueless comments "Is crypto done", long winded dribble, diatribes, plus tons & tons of bull and bear shit - occasionally there is some insightful and interesting discussion taking place.

Except that nowadays that is considered to be off-topic and deleted by moderators 

Agreed... less deleting is in order (except for newbie accounts that are obvious trolls, of course... or maybe the posts of old accounts that devolve into nonsubstantive personal attacks).

[Cassius]

If it was a bubble, it was a pretty unimpressive one. A run-up, sure, but nothing spectacular by bitcoin standards. No double top. A crash that burned a good few traders but was underwhelming in the grand scheme of bubbliness. Whatever's going on here hasn't finished playing out by any stretch, and neither have the geopolitics driving it.

[kurious]

If it was a bubble, it was a pretty unimpressive one. A run-up, sure, but nothing spectacular by bitcoin standards. No double top. A crash that burned a good few traders but was underwhelming in the grand scheme of bubbliness. Whatever's going on here hasn't finished playing out by any stretch, and neither have the geopolitics driving it.

I agree with this on the whole.

I think simply put, BTC got fashionable in China as the Yuan's continual devaluation made BTC ever more attractive.  The sudden reverse in the rise was more to do with an unexpected sudden spike in the Yuan's value against USD, which wrong footed the market.  That might have been engineered by the PBOC, but it was a real financial markets event.

It was not FUD, not conspiracy, just plain old speculation, supply & demand and the big factor of... market sentiment

It's a volatile world and the next move is anyone's guess, I am not feeling so bullish that I see the ATH 'within days' but I don't see the long term bull trend as over just because we are back to the prices of a few weeks ago, either.

[Miz4r]

Maybe instead of being such a cultist and claiming that there is a anti-btc conspiracy by EtherAltCoinBanksterIlluminatiTrolls you should consider that you are just being delusional about this chinese pump that ended in a logical conclusion.

Maybe you want to zoom out the chart and see this has happened two more times since the bear market ended after September 2015. The first was after the push from $250 to $500, the second after a push from $440 to $790 and now again after a push from $750 to $1160. So far this is nothing but a normal correction you'd expect after such a quick increase, I think you may be having bearish delusions about what is pretty normal market behavior in a strong bull market. The Chinese market being more volatile in its moves than the western market is also nothing new to Bitcoin. I expect some weeks of consolidation between $850-$1000 before the rally continues, don't think this is done yet.

[gembitz]

What does anything of this has to do with ether? Anyone who is bearish on btc price is the altcoin troll/"ether huffer"? Are you for real?

FUD this, FUD that..

Talking about "credibility" - this is a speculation thread - how much BTC did you make on this rally with your delusional views? What exactly is your credibility? I called this rise being china manipulated and made ~10BTC by shorting the top (risking less than 0.8BTC), if you did any better, feel free to share your success.

Maybe instead of being such a cultist and claiming that there is a anti-btc conspiracy by EtherAltCoinBanksterIlluminatiTrolls you should consider that you are just being delusional about this chinese pump that ended in a logical conclusion.




There is indeed a certain cap that fits you, and thats a cap of a moron.

 

^what exchange do you use to go leveraged short?    tia!

[eddie13]

how much BTC did you make on this rally with your delusional views?

100% +

[Ibian]

We can create perfect diamonds now. As in better than natural ones. Eventually we will be able to create gold by manipulating atoms. Bitcoin suffers no inflation of this nature.

[eddie13]

What does anything of this has to do with ether? Anyone who is bearish on btc price is the altcoin troll/"ether huffer"? Are you for real?

FUD this, FUD that..

Talking about "credibility" - this is a speculation thread - how much BTC did you make on this rally with your delusional views? What exactly is your credibility? I called this rise being china manipulated and made ~10BTC by shorting the top (risking less than 0.8BTC), if you did any better, feel free to share your success.

Maybe instead of being such a cultist and claiming that there is a anti-btc conspiracy by EtherAltCoinBanksterIlluminatiTrolls you should consider that you are just being delusional about this chinese pump that ended in a logical conclusion.




There is indeed a certain cap that fits you, and thats a cap of a moron.

 

^what exchange do you use to go leveraged short?    tia!

With leverage like that I expect bitmex..