Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gembitz]

((rant))>>> the system starts bogging down at about 100 tx/s. In terms of blocksize, that would be ~33MB blocks. So we obviously have considerable headroom in the system for improvement by means of simple increase of maxblocksize. >>>((rant))

has it occured to you thats by satoshis' design >.>  that was the original size ~ 32mb ?   ==> rant on rant off

[1715398552]

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[ragnar0k]

what do you guys think about the Tether/Bitfinex conspiracy? Where is all this money coming from? Is bitfinex just "washtrading" the price in its desired direction?
Imho price of Bitcoin at 1k$ was the result of somehow healthy grow (~$10Mio Tether), now we have 7x this price (~600Mio Tether). This might be the next MtGox.

Get rich quick 101
1. Buy BTC with real USD
2. Print Tether
3. Pump BTC with Tether
4. FOMO
5. Sell BTC for USD
6. Profit

When you understand how washtrading works you'll understand that 20Mio Tether are enough to increase MarketCap by 20Billion$.
This works as long as the price of BTC stays high. Never short Bitcoin in the current situation. This bubble (Tether out of thin air) will pop.

How? In order to make money they would need to sell either tether or btc outside of bitfinex.
So far that has worked (obviously someone buys them at that price outside bitfinex), assuming they are not hoarding billions of btcs. And even if it explodes a la MtGox, I think we just have to deal with a short set back until the market absorbed the coins, they are not the only exchange out there.
But maybe I am oversimplifying

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

jbreher is actively trying to destroy bitcoin.

wanton destruction

 

[lightfoot]

Meantime I figured out what kills Avalon boards. Overheating is causing solder bridges. I so rule.....

And BCH fails to pump to the sky.....

[mymenace]

what do you guys think about the Tether/Bitfinex conspiracy? Where is all this money coming from? Is bitfinex just "washtrading" the price in its desired direction?
Imho price of Bitcoin at 1k$ was the result of somehow healthy grow (~$10Mio Tether), now we have 7x this price (~600Mio Tether). This might be the next MtGox.

Get rich quick 101
1. Buy BTC with real USD
2. Print Tether
3. Pump BTC with Tether
4. FOMO
5. Sell BTC for USD
6. Profit

When you understand how washtrading works you'll understand that 20Mio Tether are enough to increase MarketCap by 20Billion$.
This works as long as the price of BTC stays high. Never short Bitcoin in the current situation. This bubble (Tether out of thin air) will pop.

How? In order to make money they would need to sell either tether or btc outside of bitfinex.
So far that has worked (obviously someone buys them at that price outside bitfinex), assuming they are not hoarding billions of btcs. And even if it explodes a la MtGox, I think we just have to deal with a short set back until the market absorbed the coins, they are not the only exchange out there.
But maybe I am oversimplifying

You are right, it is definitely happening, other things as well, you understand fully, that any market at any time has or can be manipulated or worked to someone else's advantage

Now play that information.


The question is where do they want it to go? Higher
Why do they want it to go higher? Adoption or Bubble
When is it going to pop? To be determined

Now here is where it gets difficult

What if natural adoption was occurring at the same time? Most likely
Where should the price be? Speculative no less than $1000
What will happen to btc price and markets? Wishy washy

How can I profit? each dip buy a little, each rise sell a little profit - Buy the dip

[JimboToronto]

I agree that more of our newest distracting troll-job ruphej's posts should be deleted, but likely it is just a matter of time that owner of thread gets to such deletions and perhaps mods suspend or ban such irrelevant nonsensicals.

Just to play devil's advocate, I'll say that he did show us that not all bad country music comes from Dixie.

Moravia's a country too, or at least it used to be. 

[hv_]

jbreher is actively trying to destroy bitcoin.

Just no. You couldn't be further from the truth. Not only am I not trying to destroy bitcoin, I am trying to save it. Hell, I am not even trying to destroy Bitcoin Segwit. Such a postulate would be ludicrous, as I hold more BTC than I could possibly make through 'normal' means such as my salary -- and I am within the USA 6%* top in that regard -- if I worked for the rest of my life.

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States#Distribution_of_household_income_in_2014_according_to_US_Census_data

It is true that in my analysis, I find Bitcoin Cash to be superior to Bitcoin Segwit. For everyone. Except maybe those who have invested their reputation in core. And my statements are largely positive on BCH. But the only negative statements I make on BTC, are in relation to the manners in which it is lacking compared to BCH. And always truthful - at least to the best of my knowledge.

Hilarious

Bitcoin gets destroyed by a single guy postings.

How brain death . . .

How many times bitcoin was declared dead ? 101 ?


 

[adaseb]

what do you guys think about the Tether/Bitfinex conspiracy? Where is all this money coming from? Is bitfinex just "washtrading" the price in its desired direction?
Imho price of Bitcoin at 1k$ was the result of somehow healthy grow (~$10Mio Tether), now we have 7x this price (~600Mio Tether). This might be the next MtGox.

Get rich quick 101
1. Buy BTC with real USD
2. Print Tether
3. Pump BTC with Tether
4. FOMO
5. Sell BTC for USD
6. Profit

When you understand how washtrading works you'll understand that 20Mio Tether are enough to increase MarketCap by 20Billion$.
This works as long as the price of BTC stays high. Never short Bitcoin in the current situation. This bubble (Tether out of thin air) will pop.

They posted an audit last month.

The supply of tethers keeps increasing because price of bitcoin keeps going up.

20 Million these days is nothing. Its mostly from old adopters that sell their BTC whenever a new ATH is made.

Tether is required to keeps the markets liquid.

I might be wrong but I also don't believe those Bitfinex'rekt reddits and FUD conspiracies either.

[jbreher]

What is it with Czech folk singers and Karolina? Do they know something? IS Carolina Satoshi?

https://youtu.be/EcUTyxWvCx0?t=28s

Oskar Petr knows - James Taylor is Satoshi.

[Lopumbo]

what do you guys think about the Tether/Bitfinex conspiracy? Where is all this money coming from? Is bitfinex just "washtrading" the price in its desired direction?
Imho price of Bitcoin at 1k$ was the result of somehow healthy grow (~$10Mio Tether), now we have 7x this price (~600Mio Tether). This might be the next MtGox.

Get rich quick 101
1. Buy BTC with real USD
2. Print Tether
3. Pump BTC with Tether
4. FOMO
5. Sell BTC for USD
6. Profit

When you understand how washtrading works you'll understand that 20Mio Tether are enough to increase MarketCap by 20Billion$.
This works as long as the price of BTC stays high. Never short Bitcoin in the current situation. This bubble (Tether out of thin air) will pop.

How? In order to make money they would need to sell either tether or btc outside of bitfinex.
So far that has worked (obviously someone buys them at that price outside bitfinex), assuming they are not hoarding billions of btcs. And even if it explodes a la MtGox, I think we just have to deal with a short set back until the market absorbed the coins, they are not the only exchange out there.
But maybe I am oversimplifying

You cannot sell tether to fiat.
Markets are linked through e.g. margin bots.
Sure the BTC you buy at step 1) have to be moved to a "real" exchange.
Bitfinex has lost its banking support in april as far as I remember (just when the pumping started)
In order for Bitfinex to stay solvent (our somehow manage to back the tether with real dollar) the price has to climb.
There are margin lends at Bitfinex >100Mio Tether. Imagine some of that at leverage and you are the market because you can break resistances and support at will (Bitfinex "allows" washtrading)
The price moves favourable in that direction what is most profitable for bitfinex to close long/short positions (you're basically betting against the exchange)
They are not the only exchange, but that with the highest volume in BTC and tether is linked to other exchanges like Poloniex etc...even Kraken!
Its almost always the same scenario...price declines for some time...boom...tether magic out of the nowhere....fomo...slow selloff....repeat.
The bagholders are the buyers who think they got "cheap coins".
This problem is getting more and more media attention.
What do you think will happen if 2-3 exchanges close (suddenly) or you cannot withdraw anymore and people realize most of the price is thin air?
Expect price to surge to the 1000$ level when it pops...I don't know "when" but it will happen.

Because yolo, I currently only expose a little money (5% of my portfolio) to cryptorisk. Buy a little when it dips, sell a little when it bumps.

The supply of tethers keeps increasing because price of bitcoin keeps going up.

Are you kidding me? Its exactly the other way round!

20 Million these days is nothing. Its mostly from old adopters that sell their BTC whenever a new ATH is made.

20 Mio Tether != 20 Mio increase in marketcap. Marketcap means nothing because you can't sell all Bitcoins in circulation at ~7700$!
20 Mio Tether including leverage and in a single hand can make extremle pressure. You can climb the price scale at will when real! volume is low.

[mymenace]

what do you guys think about the Tether/Bitfinex conspiracy? Where is all this money coming from? Is bitfinex just "washtrading" the price in its desired direction?
Imho price of Bitcoin at 1k$ was the result of somehow healthy grow (~$10Mio Tether), now we have 7x this price (~600Mio Tether). This might be the next MtGox.

Get rich quick 101
1. Buy BTC with real USD
2. Print Tether
3. Pump BTC with Tether
4. FOMO
5. Sell BTC for USD
6. Profit

When you understand how washtrading works you'll understand that 20Mio Tether are enough to increase MarketCap by 20Billion$.
This works as long as the price of BTC stays high. Never short Bitcoin in the current situation. This bubble (Tether out of thin air) will pop.

They posted an audit last month.

The supply of tethers keeps increasing because price of bitcoin keeps going up.

20 Million these days is nothing. Its mostly from old adopters that sell their BTC whenever a new ATH is made.

Tether is required to keeps the markets liquid.

I might be wrong but I also don't believe those Bitfinex'rekt reddits and FUD conspiracies either.

I might be wrong but I also don't believe those Bitfinex'rekt reddits and FUD conspiracies either.
Why?

What about other conspiracies?

Is there any truth in conspiracy theories? of course

What is the truth? That something is #happening +++

[mymenace]

what do you guys think about the Tether/Bitfinex conspiracy? Where is all this money coming from? Is bitfinex just "washtrading" the price in its desired direction?
Imho price of Bitcoin at 1k$ was the result of somehow healthy grow (~$10Mio Tether), now we have 7x this price (~600Mio Tether). This might be the next MtGox.

Get rich quick 101
1. Buy BTC with real USD
2. Print Tether
3. Pump BTC with Tether
4. FOMO
5. Sell BTC for USD
6. Profit

When you understand how washtrading works you'll understand that 20Mio Tether are enough to increase MarketCap by 20Billion$.
This works as long as the price of BTC stays high. Never short Bitcoin in the current situation. This bubble (Tether out of thin air) will pop.

How? In order to make money they would need to sell either tether or btc outside of bitfinex.
So far that has worked (obviously someone buys them at that price outside bitfinex), assuming they are not hoarding billions of btcs. And even if it explodes a la MtGox, I think we just have to deal with a short set back until the market absorbed the coins, they are not the only exchange out there.
But maybe I am oversimplifying

You cannot sell tether to fiat.
Markets are linked through e.g. margin bots.
Sure the BTC you buy at step 1) have to be moved to a "real" exchange.
Bitfinex has lost its banking support in april as far as I remember (just when the pumping started)
In order for Bitfinex to stay solvent (our somehow manage to back the tether with real dollar) the price has to climb.
There are margin lends at Bitfinex >100Mio Tether. Imagine some of that at leverage and you are the market because you can break resistances and support at will (Bitfinex "allows" washtrading)
The price moves favourable in that direction what is most profitable for bitfinex to close long/short positions (you're basically betting against the exchange)
They are not the only exchange, but that with the highest volume in BTC and tether is linked to other exchanges like Poloniex etc...even Kraken!
Its almost always the same scenario...price declines for some time...boom...tether magic out of the nowhere....fomo...slow selloff....repeat.
The bagholders are the buyers who think they got "cheap coins".
This problem is getting more and more media attention.
What do you think will happen if 2-3 exchanges close (suddenly) or you cannot withdraw anymore and people realize most of the price is thin air?
Expect price to surge to the 1000$ level when it pops...I don't know "when" but it will happen.

Because yolo, I only currently expose only a little money (5% of my portfolio) to cryptorisk. Buy a little when it dips, sell a little when it bumps.

The supply of tethers keeps increasing because price of bitcoin keeps going up.

Are you kidding me? Its exactly the other way round!

20 Million these days is nothing. Its mostly from old adopters that sell their BTC whenever a new ATH is made.

20 Mio Tether != 20 Mio increase in marketcap. Marketcap means nothing because you can't sell all Bitcoins in circulation at ~7700$!
20 Mio Tether including leverage and in a single hand can make extremle pressure. You can climb the price scale at will when real! volume is low.

So are you trying to say nothing of ill concern is #happening +++

[infofront]

I've only deleted a handful of his posts.

This has taken a lot of self control over the months. I always cringe when he posts because virtually every post is a direct or indirect attack on bitcoin, or a promotion of BCH.
He does sometimes have legitimate points, but they don't need to be repeated ad nauseam. Also, the thread was never about altcoins. As I mentioned in an earlier post, he has a somewhat privileged position in this thread due to his length of time participating in it, and his relatively thoughtful posts.

During busy times, I often have a few messages asking me to review certain posts, so I take those suggestions into consideration as well.

I'll also be the first to admit that I may be a less than stellar moderator.   

I'll just consider it teething pains. I'm sure it is a difficult and thankless job.

However, I ask that you reconsider whether or not you are deleting only posts by me that are 'direct or indirect attack on bitcoin' or promotion of BCH. Let us look at this one and evaluate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2402558.msg24766720#msg24766720

This post had responses to four different posts. Three of them were directly concerning BTC. The fourth was a reply to the Tesla Roadster thing.

Certainly, the first of the four replies had quoted and sourced info which could be construed as positive to BCH and negative to BTC. However, it was correcting false information promulgated by the person to whom I was replying regarding mining profitability. I posted current state (factual information) and the source URL so he could check it himself next time.

The next was providing helpful info answering a question regarding the BYC mempool, free of any value judgement.

Third was the Tesla thing.

Fourth was merely defending against an accusation of 'FUD', when the supposed fud was merely the discussion regarding the limit of number of users BCH + Lightning can support, assuming each user would open and close their channel daily (the 2 tx/user/day was the hypothetical introduced by the party to whom I was responding earlier). While this could be _viewed_ as negative, it is really just the way it is, and therefore value-neutral.

I admit it may have been heavy-handed deleting that post. As with many of your posts, it fell within a sort of gray area.

Judging by all the replies here, there's no clear consensus regarding deletion of your posts.

Anyway, lets try to keep the BTC concern trolling and BCH shilling to a minimum.

[itod]

I want to...

I don't believe anyone would object to that if code was offered up that was demonstrably superior in every way and addressed every technical doubt about that approach. If it was then enough people would agree, migrate and that would become Bitcoin.

Most people are not married to the Core path. What Core has that can't be touched at present is straightforward competence and that's what keeps their grip on Bitcoin's development.

That is, er, not quite the case with the present campaign.

Denigrating assertion does not stand up to the scrutiny of logic.

A team recently started probing at the limits of what the Bitcoin network can actually achieve. In terms of controlled experiments directly scaling transaction count, on a worldwide subset of machines, and recording the results. About time someone did this, eh?

AAR, they found that with today's satoshi client, and commodity consumer hardware, the system starts bogging down at about 100 tx/s. In terms of blocksize, that would be ~33MB blocks. So we obviously have considerable headroom in the system for improvement by means of simple increase of maxblocksize. This would consume about 25% of a single core of a typical 4-core CPU, with 16 GB RAM, and an SSD, while consuming about 3 Mb/s of network BW.

But they did not stop there. Due to the fact that allocating more CPU cores to the problem did not improve performance above this (i.e., that it consumed a smaller percentage of additional cores, with no increase in throughput), they postulated that suboptimal multithreading performance might be the root of the issue. So they refactored the code to employ contemporary concurrency design techniques. After such refactoring, the performance of the system - on the same HW - was able to process 500 tx/s. This would correspond to >150 MB blocksize. I repeat - on the same, consumer-grade, hardware. Of course, this results in an increased network BW consumption of 15 Mb/s.

So we see that, despite the maturity of the satoshi client (i.e., a decade of development by Bitcoin's supposed best), there is significant low-hanging fruit in the deficiency of the software design of the satoshi client. Deficiencies having to do directly with scalability. Deficiencies that -- so far -- have not been addressed by the core developers.

Whether core has nobody that understands concurrency, or whether they just deem scalability to be a low priority, is a matter of conjecture. But the truth is that the core developers have not:
- measured and published such transaction capacity tests
- determined where the lowest bottleneck in system transaction capacity lies
- coded up a fix to remove the lowest bottleneck to system transaction capacity
- measured and published results with the fix for this lowest bottleneck to system transaction capacity

- All this in a time when system transaction capacity is the hottest issue - and has been for about two years.

On the other hand, another team has. Who was it? A collaboration of members of the teams working on Bitcoin Cash.

Mempool single thread bottleneck has little to do with number of transactions/sec, when one can put as much transactions within the block limit. Although segwit almost doubles that amount, blocks are already full, particularity in the time of spam attacks that your BCH friends impose on the blockchain. That is probably the reason this was not addressed before by core devs, and why other people detected it when they increased the block size by two orders of magnitude in their crazy experiments towards 1GB blocks, in which case it did became a bottleneck. What mempool multi-threading can help is handling spam transactions much more effectively, leaving mempool in much better state. If you understand all this (and I'm not sure you do, so you should be given the benefit of the doubt that you are simply ignorant), then your statements about core team where "nobody understands concurrency" are nothing but the FUD you spread about them in order to picture your big block developers somehow "superior". We saw their coding skills few days ago when they failed to execute a proper fork. What's funny that you said few posts above that you don't want to hurt BTC in any possible way, and few posts latter you talk this nonsense about core devs. You can't lie and at the same time cry you only want the truth, inconsistency is killing you.

[jbreher]

Ok off-topic, but the subject of Tesla still fascinates me. Watch this cnbc video. If I had any stock in Tesla right now, I'd be selling into that fake speculative bubble that is no doubt going to abruptly end in another year or two.

Yeah - I don't know what to think about Tesla. Jim Rickards has been recommending to short Tesla for some time, while others in the same Agora Financial stable are putting out buy recommendations. Certainly, from a traditional business management perspective, the company looks sure to tank. Then again, on the basis of financials, it should have tanked last year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

Enough people have bought into the image of Musk's vision. Whenever he asks, people throw more money at him. His federated companies have transcended the 'product' mentality, garnering acolytes wedded to that vision. It does make a cohesive narrative how a better approach to energy can build a more capable humankind. But it is hard to tell where the true cohesiveness ends, and the marketing-speak takes over.

If the little lady ends up triggering on the Roadster, the only thing that would stop me from plunking down for a place in the Founder's queue would be fear of the company no longer being around come ship date.

[sirazimuth]

Elon Musk is going to end up the Tucker or DeLorean of our generation. History repeats.... sigh.

 Sadly, I fear you may not be too far off with that comparison.

 TBH, I'm really holding out for the Porsche EV's due out around the next halvening  

Yeah, Tesla is quickly running out of other people's money, and the bail outs are going to end at some point soon.

Not to mention that every major car manufacturer will quickly close the gap on the All-EV market within 2-3 years. Chevy just launched their Bolt EV. It looks like it could be a winner for the mid-range market. Still a little pricey for what it is though. But the govt fed tax credit helps.

Ok off-topic, but the subject of Tesla still fascinates me. Watch this cnbc video. If I had any stock in Tesla right now, I'd be selling into that fake speculative bubble that is no doubt going to abruptly end in another year or two.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/tesla-is-going-out-of-business-says-former-gm-exec-bob-lutz.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

I bought my Tesla stock at just under $38 right after  it went public at $25 (currently $300+)
I remember the financial guru folks back then squawking that it was way over valued when it hit $40.
Look how that worked out..... Shorters back then got wrecked no doubt.

Having said that I do agree its waaaay over valued at this point,
probably why its currently one of the highest shorted stocks out there.

If the little lady ends up triggering on the Roadster, the only thing that would stop me from plunking down for a place in the Founder's queue would be fear of the company no longer being around come ship date.

that bear at the picnic table would look kinda hip sitting behind the wheel of a Roadster.
BMB can make the meme I'm sure...

[infofront]

BCH is much more centralized,

Exactly in what manner do you assert that BCH is more centralized? (Presumably with respect to BTC?)

BCH is controlled by Roger Ver, Jihan Wu, Calvin Ayre, and Craig Wright - its code, mining, nodes, marketing - everything.

Regardless, the mining centralization is easy to prove.

[Vlad2Vlad]

((rant))>>> the system starts bogging down at about 100 tx/s. In terms of blocksize, that would be ~33MB blocks. So we obviously have considerable headroom in the system for improvement by means of simple increase of maxblocksize. >>>((rant))

has it occured to you thats by satoshis' design >.>  that was the original size ~ 32mb ?   ==> rant on rant off

So what happens if some crazy dev doubles that to 64MB?  Will Satoshi be upset?  ;P

[jbreher]

It is not useful to allow dishonest people to operate in a rules based environment where the ultimate foundation of the entire project is honesty.

I may be many things to many people. I may be a pariah to those whose faith in BTC is tenuous enough to be threatened by what I have to say. But one thing I am not is dishonest -- at least not intentionally dishonest -- to bitcointalk.org.

Okay, no. Let's do this right.

Let's say your clonecoin takes over. It gains majority hash power, in a permanent and convincing way. There is no chance that segwit will ever regain dominance.

How would this play out? How would the millions of bitcoiners around the world, most of which know nothing of this power struggle, react, to the newly established fact that their bitcoins are no longer bitcoins?

Probably by making an evaluation of whether they want to stay with the segwit chain or exchange into the cash chain. If this indeed comes to pass, it is not going to happen overnight. People will have the chance to mentally (and fiscally) prepare. It is not as if their current holdings would stop working. After all, segwit will still be segwit. No exchanges, vendors, payment processors, retailers or other entities that accept segwit will suddenly stop taking segwit. I think the apocalypse you imagine is just that - imaginary.

And you really think most bitcoiners know nothing of this controversy? Really? Even ignorant wall street pundits have been talking about it - for months.

OTOH, I can picture two things that would be apocalyptic: either some totally unrelated coin usurps bitcoin's rightful place at the top of the heap; or, the miners eventually take advantage of segwit's inherent ever-increasing incentive to roll back segwit and claim the anyonecanspends as their own.

How would the change in wallets to accommodate a different chain take place?

What does it matter? We have a plethora of wallets to choose from today. There is no sign that future wallet development has halted. I imagine at some point multi-currency wallets will become widespread, though this would just be gravy. And indeed, many serious bitcoiners (even plenty of pikers) have multiple wallets already. What problem do you envision the wallet ecosystem causing in a flippening environment?

What would it do to the price, and the future of cryptocurrency as a whole?

I think that would be dependent upon how fast such a postulated flippening might occur. If gradual, probably very little effect. If overnight, it may be traumatic. Either way, not nearly as severe as if some other crypto usurps bitcoin's rightful dominance, or if segwit fails.

Probably more germane is what stunting ongoing future adoption can do to the future of cryptocurrency as a whole. This is a persistent yet mostly unseen and unmeasurable drain on our path to monetarily freeing the world.

I am only giving you this one chance to be reasonable. Do with it what you will.

'Only one chance'. How magnanimous of you.

[mymenace]

Watch for it!

Take over bitcoin through the exchanges?

Invest in start up exchanges and corner bitcoin trading?

Fractional reserve lending on all your exchanges?

Crash exchanges and market?

Offer to the masses a safer option for crypto with SDR (Special Drawing Right)? International Monetary Fund newly created crypto version of their SDR


Now that's a conspiracy theory?