Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Coming soon...
New details have been posted about CME Group's upcoming bitcoin futures, which – barring any delays from regulators – will start trading on Dec. 11:
https://www.coindesk.com/cmes-bitcoin-futures-likely-start-trading-december-11/

I hope I'm wrong, but I have a really bad feeling about this one... I can't put my finger on it exactly.

They are trading something derived from bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Which means it's fictional which means fractional reserve.

It might still have an impact on the real market though... Crypto is a massive clown fiesta after all.

CME would not not have any BTC reserve requirements at all?  They can facilitate the complete trading of BTC-related contracts without any kinds of BTC reserves, at all?

I actually haven't confirmed the details about the CME futures, because I don't have any interest in trading them. There probably will be some requirements though, the effects of which will depend on their volume.

[HairyMaclairy]

Coming soon...
New details have been posted about CME Group's upcoming bitcoin futures, which – barring any delays from regulators – will start trading on Dec. 11:
https://www.coindesk.com/cmes-bitcoin-futures-likely-start-trading-december-11/

I hope I'm wrong, but I have a really bad feeling about this one... I can't put my finger on it exactly.

They are trading something derived from bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Which means it's fictional which means fractional reserve.

It might still have an impact on the real market though... Crypto is a massive clown fiesta after all.

CME would not not have any BTC reserve requirements at all?  They can facilitate the complete trading of BTC-related contracts without any kinds of BTC reserves, at all?

It is financially settled.  

It works something like this.  There is an index which shows the bitcoin price at 5pm on Day X.   Anna sells a 1 BTC future for Day X to Bob.  That means on Day X, Anna must pay an amount equal to the index price to Bob in US$ on Day X.  

If everyone thinks that the bitcoin price on Day X will be $10,000 then the price that Anna should charge Bob on the start date for the future should be $10,000 (less time cost of money but we can ignore that).   If the bitcoin price goes down further than expected, Anna wins and pays less to Bob.  If the bitcoin price goes up more than expected, Anna loses and has to pay more to Bob.  This all happens in US$, the only connection to bitcoin is the index price.

It is up to Anna to decide whether she wants to hedge her upside exposure by holding real bitcoin.  Or she can play bulllshit whale games with the price on crypto exchanges to game the futures market.  


As an added layer of complication, final settlement occurs on Day X, but every day at 5pm if the price goes up Anna pays Bob the difference, and if the price goes down Bob pays Anna.  That means market participants are somewhat protected from volatility because they are only exposed to a single day’s price swing at a time.

Where it gets really fucked is the CME will temporarily shut down bitcoin futures trading if the price swings more than 10% in a day to allow the market to cool down (called a trading halt). But the real world isn’t going to stop for the CME meaning market participants will have either have to hold bitcoin to hedge their positions or risk being dangerously exposed and unable to trade.  A 10% swing is nothing to crypto so CME is either going to have a lot of trading halts or some whales are going to try to tame bitcoin. Hard to say what will happen.  

I may not have it exactly right as I have written this in a hurrry and not read the CME rules (ie it might be a 20% swing for a trading halt) but the above principles should hold.

[Arriemoller]

So right this split second if you're on the right markets - Bitcoin + BCH + BTG + BTX = $10,200 ish.

Tell me about BTX.  Can I still claim it?

https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@xwerk/bitcore-btx-guide-the-2nd-snapshot-for-btc-hodlers-free-btx-or-how-it-works

[Ibian]

Coming soon...
New details have been posted about CME Group's upcoming bitcoin futures, which – barring any delays from regulators – will start trading on Dec. 11:
https://www.coindesk.com/cmes-bitcoin-futures-likely-start-trading-december-11/

I hope I'm wrong, but I have a really bad feeling about this one... I can't put my finger on it exactly.

They are trading something derived from bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Which means it's fictional which means fractional reserve.

It might still have an impact on the real market though... Crypto is a massive clown fiesta after all.

CME would not not have any BTC reserve requirements at all?  They can facilitate the complete trading of BTC-related contracts without any kinds of BTC reserves, at all?

It is financially settled.  

It works something like this.  There is an index which shows the bitcoin price at 5pm on Day X.   Anna sells a 1 BTC future for Day X to Bob.  That means on Day X, Anna must pay an amount equal to the index price to Bob in US$ on Day X.  

If everyone thinks that the bitcoin price on Day X will be $10,000 then the price that Anna should charge Bob on the start date for the future should be $10,000 (less time cost of money but we can ignore that).   If the bitcoin price goes down further than expected, Anna wins and pays less to Bob.  If the bitcoin price goes up more than expected, Anna loses and has to pay more to Bob.  This all happens in US$, the only connection to bitcoin is the index price.

It is up to Anna to decide whether she wants to hedge her upside exposure by holding real bitcoin.  Or she can play bulllshit whale games with the price on crypto exchanges to game the futures market.  


As an added layer of complication, final settlement occurs on Day X, but every day at 5pm if the price goes up Anna pays Bob the difference, and if the price goes down Bob pays Anna.  That means market participants are somewhat protected from volatility because they are only exposed to a single day’s price swing at a time.

Where it gets really fucked is the CME will temporarily shut down bitcoin futures trading if the price swings more than 10% in a day to allow the market to cool down (called a trading halt). But the real world isn’t going to stop for the CME meaning market participants will have either have to hold bitcoin to hedge their positions or risk being dangerously exposed and unable to trade.  A 10% swing is nothing to crypto so CME is either going to have a lot of trading halts or some whales are going to try to tame bitcoin. Hard to say what will happen. 

So, fun times ahead?

[HairyMaclairy]

You won’t be bored

[JayJuanGee]

I am really wondering then this bullish run is over.

Can't grow about 500-1000 USD / month forever ...

Though I would like it to keep going for some time

On the other hand: If 2018 is anything like 2017 there will be a couple of more millionairs on the horizon

There may be quite a few BTC HODLers who are trying to contemplate very important status definitions, such as how much over one million is required in order to be classified as a "multi-millionaire"?  

Is it 2 million or 3 million?  or is it some other number that would cause such "changed classification?"


 We have already had HODLers participating in this thread who have been contemplating very important life matters, such as what price would be needed to say "fuck you?"  

What profound questions we ask here in bitcoinlandia, and in this WO thread, in particular, to the extent that we are not distracted in this thread and in our contemplations by big blocker troll nut jobs and other "bitcoin NOT" wannabes.... hahahahaha  

No need to say “fuck you” to those left behind.  “No thank you” works just as well.

I believe that we are referring to different things.

I was referring to the concept of "fuck you" money that causes someone to say that they do not need to work for so and so because they have enough of their own wealth (and/or cashflow) to make up for the loss of income that they would have from the "job."

I think that "those left behind" is a different concept, and I was not even referring to those folks who are likely going to be running after the train and buying into BTC at later and higher price points.  Certainly, those people (laggards?) are welcome, but they certainly have to find their own time and comfort level regarding when they are going to jump on the train, and some of them just do not realize that there is a train to jump on, too, so cannot really blame them for NOT knowing. 

So, yeah, our relationship with someone who has power over us and pays us is likely much different from people who are likely jumping on board the BTC train at a later stop.  I don't to say anything to the later group, except perhaps "welcome aboard" by the time they finally jump on, and perhaps it will be my duty, somewhat, to help them in their transition and to become acquainted to their new accommodations.

[gembitz]

I see I just missed another ATH.. $8270 at Stamp.

Bouncy bouncy.

dont sell 10K new floor :-D BTG golden fork is a curiosity <<

[Arriemoller]

Who is pumping BTX, and why?

[Dabs]

This one says 10 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire

Another commonly used term is multimillionaire which usually refers to individuals with net assets of 10 million or more of a currency.

But by definition, it should be anyone with 2 or more. Maybe 5 is a good number as that is what supposedly Bill Gates implied as comfortable for a lot of people who don't overspend and run charities.

[Heater]

Who is pumping BTX, and why?

BTX deposit into hitbtc is down - that might be limiting supply?

[Arriemoller]

https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@xwerk/bitcore-btx-guide-the-2nd-snapshot-for-btc-hodlers-free-btx-or-how-it-works

Give us your BTC private keys.

What could possibly go wrong ?

How do you claim all the fork coins if you don't expose your private keys?

[gembitz]

Who is pumping BTX, and why?

BTX deposit into hitbtc is down - that might be limiting supply?

lol get with it~BTG is the new leading spamfork :-D weee

[JayJuanGee]

Coming soon...
New details have been posted about CME Group's upcoming bitcoin futures, which – barring any delays from regulators – will start trading on Dec. 11:
https://www.coindesk.com/cmes-bitcoin-futures-likely-start-trading-december-11/

I hope I'm wrong, but I have a really bad feeling about this one... I can't put my finger on it exactly.

They are trading something derived from bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Which means it's fictional which means fractional reserve.

It might still have an impact on the real market though... Crypto is a massive clown fiesta after all.

CME would not not have any BTC reserve requirements at all?  They can facilitate the complete trading of BTC-related contracts without any kinds of BTC reserves, at all?

It is financially settled.  

It works something like this.  There is an index which shows the bitcoin price at 5pm on Day X.   Anna sells a 1 BTC future for Day X to Bob.  That means on Day X, Anna must pay an amount equal to the index price to Bob in US$ on Day X.  

If everyone thinks that the bitcoin price on Day X will be $10,000 then the price that Anna should charge Bob on the start date for the future should be $10,000 (less time cost of money but we can ignore that).   If the bitcoin price goes down further than expected, Anna wins and pays less to Bob.  If the bitcoin price goes up more than expected, Anna loses and has to pay more to Bob.  This all happens in US$, the only connection to bitcoin is the index price.

It is up to Anna to decide whether she wants to hedge her upside exposure by holding real bitcoin.  Or she can play bulllshit whale games with the price on crypto exchanges to game the futures market.  


As an added layer of complication, final settlement occurs on Day X, but every day at 5pm if the price goes up Anna pays Bob the difference, and if the price goes down Bob pays Anna.  That means market participants are somewhat protected from volatility because they are only exposed to a single day’s price swing at a time.

Where it gets really fucked is the CME will temporarily shut down bitcoin futures trading if the price swings more than 10% in a day to allow the market to cool down (called a trading halt). But the real world isn’t going to stop for the CME meaning market participants will have either have to hold bitcoin to hedge their positions or risk being dangerously exposed and unable to trade.  A 10% swing is nothing to crypto so CME is either going to have a lot of trading halts or some whales are going to try to tame bitcoin. Hard to say what will happen.  

I may not have it exactly right as I have written this in a hurrry and not read the CME rules (ie it might be a 20% swing for a trading halt) but the above principles should hold.

Thanks HairyMac for taking some time to outline a set of layman's hypotheticals to attempt to describe how the futures process is supposed to work.  Surely, understandably there could be variations in cryptolandia or any service that attempts to customize its instruments to bitcoinlandia price dynamics. 

So, even if you got some of the outline details wrong, from your explanation, I feel like I have a bit of a better understanding of how futures are supposed to work from an overall perspective.   Thanks. 

[Heater]

https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@xwerk/bitcore-btx-guide-the-2nd-snapshot-for-btc-hodlers-free-btx-or-how-it-works

Give us your BTC private keys.

What could possibly go wrong ?

How do you claim all the fork coins if you don't expose your private keys?

First move all your coins to a new address so the old private key is no longer needed for BTC. This is a safety measure.

Then use the old private key to 'sweep' the coins into a Wallet. Coinomi on android is good for this task - can confirm for both Bitcoin gold and Bitcore.

[bones261]

https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@xwerk/bitcore-btx-guide-the-2nd-snapshot-for-btc-hodlers-free-btx-or-how-it-works

Give us your BTC private keys.

What could possibly go wrong ?

How do you claim all the fork coins if you don't expose your private keys?

Their first airdrop only made you sign a transaction from the address with Bitcoin in it. I guess they did it this way since there is no standard way to sign a message with a Segwit address. Guess I will be skipping this airdrop since I am doubtful Trezor will come up with a secure way to do this.

[Torque]

Found a rare unicorn, a positive MSM article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/standpoints-ronnie-moas-predicts-bitcoin-will-surge-another-70-percent.html

Price target raised from $11k to $14k, but doesn't say when. I'm assuming end of 2018.

[HairyMaclairy]

BTG started trading on Bittrex a couple of hours ago and it is surging. Sure wish Coinmarketcap would get their shit together and add it to the first page. It is currently the number 5 coin by market cap.

I think the problem is CoinMarketCap doesn’t know how many are issued so can’t calculate the market cap.

[rolling]

BTG started trading on Bittrex a couple of hours ago and it is surging. Sure wish Coinmarketcap would get their shit together and add it to the first page. It is currently the number 5 coin by market cap.

I think the problem is CoinMarketCap doesn’t know how many are issued so can’t calculate the market cap.

That may be true but how could they not know that? The current block is known and it follows the exact same distribution as bitcoin. Seems like they would be able to figure it out since they figured out 1200+ shitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

This one says 10 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire

Another commonly used term is multimillionaire which usually refers to individuals with net assets of 10 million or more of a currency.

But by definition, it should be anyone with 2 or more. Maybe 5 is a good number as that is what supposedly Bill Gates implied as comfortable for a lot of people who don't overspend and run charities.

Thanks for pointing that out Dabs.... It is an  interesting concept to attempt to figure out whether to classify oneself as a millionnaire or a multi-millionnaire, and surely, 10 million does constitute a way to differentiate in a kind of meaningful way.

And, perhaps the regular millionnaires, let's say between $1million and $9.99 million can kind of still rejoice in having a bit of a range in which to work and perhaps to also have a status that allows them to potentially strive for the more prestigious multi-millionnaire status... but I agree with you that technically, you may be able to assert multi-million with 2 million, but perhaps 3 million would be safer - it is like differentiating between couple and few.. so in order to be accurate with "few" you need to have three or more...

By the way, at current prices, you still need about 122 BTC in order to reach the millionnaire status in terms of bitcoin holdings alone... but likely BTC HODLers are going to have other assets, besides their bitcoins, and perhaps some BTC HODLers with 50BTC or so, could be merging into "millionnaire" status based on the positively lopsided performance of their bitcoin holdings.

Part of my latter point is that of course we should be considering the totality of all our assets, besides just our BTC holdings, and just to give an idea, my current bitcoin portfolio constitutes about 2/3 of my total wealth (and about 90% of my bitcoin holdings is in bitcoin and about 10% in fiat)... but it is a bit crazy that in late 2013 I had aimed to invest about 10% of my total quasi-liquid assets into bitcoin; however, due to the low BTC price throughout 2014 and 2015, I ended up investing a bit more than 12% of my total quasi-liquid assets into bitcoin, and thereafter, due to bitcoin's price appreciation, those proportions became a bit over 2/3 of my wealth is now in bitcoin or in bitcoin-tagged funds (fiat tagged for bitcoin).

[Paashaas]

B..B..Bitcoin Gold is surging 

I'll wait a little bit longer with selling.