Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

[Elwar]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new devices their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what we can expect to happen in the next 3 months. When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time but not much for the 0.4-0.6$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Is Jihan still using his proprietary mining hack to get more coins on bcash than other miners? Or are the only people mining bcash using his algorithm?

Too bad for him the Segwith fork fixed that.

[d_eddie]

@TERA2
I think I surely don't have anything to apologize for, amirite?

[BTCHadzija]

BTC price movement is making it's way down to the long-term trend support line that had like 6 touches since October, and it lines up at around 6900 right now.

I have my buy orders set just above 7k, hoping they'll hit soon and we can start our reversal.

If we break below that trend line we're probably looking at a prolonged bear-market, but I doubt that will happen. On the upside we will however need some more volume to get through that 200DMA

[Raja_MBZ]

This article made my day. Check it out guys; written in 2014, and till now, the price predictions have remained extremely accurate:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/

There are two main forms of wealth in today's world. Land and cryptocurrency.

 

[d_eddie]

I'm glad I didn't come across as a jerk. What I would like is see you write a string of satisfied posts about how your trading gives you small but consistent fruits. You're a bitcoin veteran after all.

Do you really get rekt every time, bones, or is it just preventive whining?

(You're free not to answer this, of course. It's just a cocky opening.)

I'd try and make the bet smaller relative to my playroll, keeping leverage at maybe 3 tops, 1~1.5 even better. "Going long" can actually mean buying a few cents and stashing away. So can "taking profit." Increasing the amount in the freezer is probably the most hopeful subgoal to gambling with 100% house money.

I mean: you know a few things about retirement and taxes. I'm sure you made a few calculations. I know you understand this magical internet money fairly well, too. Come on.

To be blunt, my finances are a horror story. I truly am REKT. My cryptocurrency portfolio has never been large. We are talking less than 1 BTC worth ATM.

It's not a huge start, agreed, but by judicious use of a consistent strategy it could grow little by little. The 2J-ladder thingy, maybe. Or if you just held the hedging short since when you started it, now your play money could have doubled easily. That's what I mean by "consistent". And "judicious" means you would have managed to hold it without getting rekt soonish (with some sweat, granted) if it had been a small amount (like 10-20% of your play bankroll).

Also, everyone knows the saying that those who can't,  teach. Definitely applies to me when it comes to retirement. I have jack shit saved up for retirement and I am 50.

I feel you, man.

Sometimes I'm just tempted to liquidate all my meager cryptocurrency holdings right now. However, a part of me wants to hold on for as long as possible because quite frankly, it gives me a little ray of hope that maybe things will turn around, and I can delay the looming bankruptcy filing indefinitely.

Are we joking or what? Chin up and HODL!

I will probably regret this posting, since I have bared all to practical strangers. Oh well, at least it was a little therapeutic to have my own pity party.

No names, no pain. And you got yourself off the target list as well. It probably isn't all that bad.

[Speculatoross]

Coinbase just bought a decentralized exchange......

Coinbase.......
decentralized exchange.......


I think i need a recap on what "decentralized" means......

99% of decentralized exchanges allow you to trade crypto to crypto.

There is one decentralized exchange that uses fiat but that is more like localbitcoins than a real exchange.

Thank you but I know what a dex exchange is:)
It was mainly a joke (probably a bad one lol), meaning that when I read “coinbase” and “decentralized” on the same sentence I feel like I don’t know anymore what decentralization means

[Kylapoiss]

This whole telegram thing is pretty stupid, I have no idea why people think it is useful for an ICO. I remember using something like this in MUDs back in 1993, it was the gossip channel, and it was annoying then too. I just keep waiting for someone to chat: "level!"...."grats!"

What MUD did you play? Used to play them aswell, MUME, Aardwolf and main one was Stonia, a small but awesome one, liked it the most.


This bitcoin price is getting boring, when we'll get out of the low-mid 7xxx area? Some more action please

[Elwar]

Coinbase just bought a decentralized exchange......

Coinbase.......
decentralized exchange.......


I think i need a recap on what "decentralized" means......

99% of decentralized exchanges allow you to trade crypto to crypto.

There is one decentralized exchange that uses fiat but that is more like localbitcoins than a real exchange.

Thank you but I know what a dex exchange is:)
It was mainly a joke (probably a bad one lol), meaning that when I read “coinbase” and “decentralized” on the same sentence I feel like I don’t know anymore what decentralization means

If I were coinbase I would spend a shitload on developing a fiat dex that is running in the background un-seen. Then add more and more "nodes", bringing in partners to run the nodes. Then when the government says, "oh, in addition to all of the other information we're making you collect we now need penis size", they can just say...Coinbase, the company, is shutting down. This affects none of the users. Continue using the DEX. Good luck.

[bitserve]

Coinbase just bought a decentralized exchange......

Coinbase.......
decentralized exchange.......


I think i need a recap on what "decentralized" means......

99% of decentralized exchanges allow you to trade crypto to crypto.

There is one decentralized exchange that uses fiat but that is more like localbitcoins than a real exchange.

Thank you but I know what a dex exchange is:)
It was mainly a joke (probably a bad one lol), meaning that when I read “coinbase” and “decentralized” on the same sentence I feel like I don’t know anymore what decentralization means

If I were coinbase I would spend a shitload on developing a fiat dex that is running in the background un-seen. Then add more and more "nodes", bringing in partners to run the nodes. Then when the government says, "oh, in addition to all of the other information we're making you collect we now need penis size", they can just say...Coinbase, the company, is shutting down. This affects none of the users. Continue using the DEX. Good luck.

But... Is that even possible? I mean, a FIAT decentralised exchange? The only thing I can think similar would be localbitcoins... which is not really decentralized even if the deals are somewhat p2p.

Decentralized crypto-only exchanges? Yeah, through smart contracts, atomic swaps, etc.... but FIAT? Maybe through a (completely exploitable) trust rating system... other than that... how?

[Anon136]

This article made my day. Check it out guys; written in 2014, and till now, the price predictions have remained extremely accurate:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/

There are two main forms of wealth in today's world. Land and cryptocurrency.

 

That was fun. Thanks for the share. Can't wait to meet up with you other "earlies" in the citadel.

[Torque]

But... Is that even possible? I mean, a FIAT decentralised exchange? The only thing I can think similar would be localbitcoins... which is not really decentralized even if the deals are somewhat p2p.

Decentralized crypto-only exchanges? Yeah, through smart contracts, atomic swaps, etc.... but FIAT? Maybe through a (completely exploitable) trust rating system... other than that... how?

https://bisq.network

[Torque]

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

I think I read somewhere, don't the major miners employ short contracts to hedge the price?

[d_eddie]

I think I read somewhere, don't the major miners employ short contracts to hedge the price?

I bet they do. In their place, I would.

[gembitz]

But... Is that even possible? I mean, a FIAT decentralised exchange? The only thing I can think similar would be localbitcoins... which is not really decentralized even if the deals are somewhat p2p.

Decentralized crypto-only exchanges? Yeah, through smart contracts, atomic swaps, etc.... but FIAT? Maybe through a (completely exploitable) trust rating system... other than that... how?

https://bisq.network

this^  BTI(BTCInstant) is going to be listed here soon ~ i'll keep you posted weeeeee

[Elwar]

But... Is that even possible? I mean, a FIAT decentralised exchange? The only thing I can think similar would be localbitcoins... which is not really decentralized even if the deals are somewhat p2p.

Decentralized crypto-only exchanges? Yeah, through smart contracts, atomic swaps, etc.... but FIAT? Maybe through a (completely exploitable) trust rating system... other than that... how?

https://bisq.network

bisq is p2p akin to localbitcoins


I'm working on one that is sort of like a decentralized tether...turn the fiat to crypto then set it free to be traded like other crypto-crypto.

[bones261]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Why would Bitmain be forced to pump the price up? It has been quite some time since the S9 came out. I am quite certain that they have already developed the next generation of ASIC chip and are mining with those for themselves. If not, they are probably pretty far along the process. Also, BCH is basically Jihan Wu's creation. If Bitmain isn't far along creating a better ASIC chip, or the new chip isn't enough an improvement, I suspect Bitmain is more likely to prop up the price of BCH rather than BTC. We will see. The reason Bitmain is now so dominate in the mining sector is because they were one of the few that managed to survive and thrive after the 2014/2015 bear market.

[ðºÞæ]

This article made my day. Check it out guys; written in 2014, and till now, the price predictions have remained extremely accurate:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/

There are two main forms of wealth in today's world. Land and cryptocurrency.

 

That was fun. Thanks for the share. Can't wait to meet up with you other "earlies" in the citadel.

Why did he post with that name?

[ivomm]

I agree that there are many people like Rojer Ver who delibarately sold tens and hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to pump their beecash etc. shitcoins. But there are other whales as well - mining whales mostly with short fat fingers which love to hit sell button on bitfinex. Each day 1800 new bitcoins are mined. For a week they gather 12600, for 1 month 50400, etc. Not so long time ago (5-6 months) they had enough profit to do so - like 20$ per asic s9 per day. But now, thanks to the many new s9's (and equivalent) plugged in, their profit is only 2.8$ per day with 0.1$ elecricity price. In the last 3 months the mining difficulty rose by 43% (meaning 43% less profit with the same price of Bitcoin). In 3 months the expected difficulty is almost the same 35-40%, so their revenue will drop from 6 to 3-4$ meaning the profit will be around 0$. I am curious if they will be happy to hit the sell button then. I guess not.

That said, what can we expect to happen in the next 3 months? When 0.1$ el. price asics are turned off, this will buy some time (but not much) for the 0.04-0.06$ el. price asics to mine on profit. In another 3-6 months even with the lowest el. price asics will have to be turned off. This is very bad news for Bitmain and its competition, but not for the hodlers! Despite the hatred of Jihan Wu for Bitcoin team and supporters, he will be FORCED to pump the price at least 4x, if he wants to continue to manifacture asics and run his pool. The fact that the moderators in bitcoin mining forums ban me for posting these stats, proves how afraid are of the truth they. And those who buy new asics s9 are completely unaware of the mining difficulty charts:

https://whattomine.com/asic
https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/bitcoin-difficulty-chart
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Why would Bitmain be forced to pump the price up? It has been quite sometime since the S9 came out. I am quite certain that they have already developed the next generation of ASIC chip and are mining with those for themselves. If not, they are probably pretty far along the process. Also, BCH is basically Jihan Wu's creation. If Bitmain isn't far along creating a better ASIC chip, or the new chip isn't enough an improvement, I suspect Bitmain is more likely to prop up the price of BCH rather than BTC. We will see. The reason Bitmain is now so dominate in the mining sector is because they were one of the few that managed to survive and thrive after the 2014/2015 bear market.

The development of new generation asic takes months and  millions of investment. Let's say that Jihan will be ready to produce the next s11 with the 10nm Samsung chip in 2019. If the price of Bitcoin is the same, all s9's will be useless in 6 months tops from now. How are all supposed  to start buying the new devices, provided that they didn't return their money for s9s? (43% increase for the last 3 monts speaks of the number of new devices bought). Even with s11, in 2019 their profit will be near 0, so to speak DOA. Who will buy a 3000$ device with a near 0 profit and old devices with no ROI? Regarding the BeeCasH - the hashrate is 10x less. Any increase in the price of BeeCasH attracts miners, raises the difficulty (remember it is daily adjusted) and the profit at the end of the day is the same as with mining bitcoin. We had a fresh example - BeeCasH price was 5x pumped but the profit was only equal to the profit of bitcoin - 10-50% increase during the pump. Only if the price of BeeCasH is 10x compared to the present, the profit may become bigger permanently. This is ridiculous btw. So most of the miners will prefer to hold and even buy bitcoins in order to reach better price. With or without Jihan - they need at least 4x times increase i.e. around 30K price, to keep the hopes of ROI and further profit.

[El duderino_]

Darkness rises...

  lol