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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.6%)
<$10,000 - 3 (4.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 2 (3.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 19 (30.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (12.7%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.2%)
>$13,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 63

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22518331 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
Agapios
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May 17, 2018, 10:13:02 PM

Well everything is going to shitter again
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May 17, 2018, 10:16:03 PM

BitMex resurrection in 10 mins
Agapios
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May 17, 2018, 10:17:47 PM

The good news is that the Sun will come out.........just not tomorrow, and I will bet my bottom dollar. I would be a heavy buyer around April 6th, and again mid-May. And early 2019.

P.S. this chart is from the future, your results may vary.




it would be weird if someone would be lucky out of 50 people throwing their predictions Smiley
I think long term predictions are all....well you cant predict some very bad news and then its behaviour on bitcoin.

You scared me a bit 1st lol. But i see you overshoot by a mile (lower) already in start of may Smiley
dude dont scare me like this

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May 17, 2018, 10:38:42 PM

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May 17, 2018, 10:40:00 PM


it would be weird if someone would be lucky out of 50 people throwing their predictions Smiley
I think long term predictions are all....well you cant predict some very bad news and then its behaviour on bitcoin.

You scared me a bit 1st lol. But i see you overshoot by a mile (lower) already in start of may Smiley
dude dont scare me like this




Yes, I have been wrong at a couple key times in the past. Once recently when i predicted a change in price for March 5 2018, and again in February 2017. Prior to that I had some good buying predictions September 27, 2015  and again for September 25 2016


Like I said before, I am correct about 53% of the time. Bitcoin does what it wants. TA only shows the past, and will give the analyst only educated guesses of the future.

That chart is just a paste from 2014-2015, I annexed zeros to the numbers and changed 2015 to 2019. Bitcoin works in ~4 year periods all centered around the halvening.
Rosewater Foundation
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May 17, 2018, 10:45:52 PM

I annexed Poland

R0ach? That you under there?
Anon136
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May 17, 2018, 10:48:01 PM

all the supermarginal ore that they neglect they cant just go back and get later.

Umm... why?

Basically, you cant dig tunnels that only hit the highest grade ore and then go back later and dig new tunnels that only hit the more marginal ores because engineers have to plan how to build a construct a mine. As an analogy, imagine if you build a sky scraper and then go to your architect after it's all said and done and say "I want to add 5000 additional square feet to the 32nd floor", that would be crazy, if you wanted 5000 additional feet it would need to be incorporated into the design before the building was built. It's not an adhock go where every you want at any given time sort of thing.
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May 17, 2018, 10:54:31 PM

See you all sometime next year.

It's too early to panic or decide either way toxic, because what we are seeing at the moment is no more than a reasonable correction on the weekly chart that's been expected for a while since we've been going up more or less non-stop (on the weekly) from 6500 to nearly 10k.

I see 2 possible scenarios playing out here.

We've now retraced around 50% of that recovery and the weekly RSI is starting to approach the oversold region (7% to go conventionally). So it could either recover somewhere in the 7k to 8k area and we'd be ok to continue a healthy growth (scenario 1) - or it could continue straight down to the main support level at 6500. In the latter case the pattern would seriously start to look like scenario 2, i.e. a descending triangle pattern hammering onto that 6500 support. If it breaks it then we're looking at the next support levels being 5800 and 4500.

(The two graphics below are exactly the same chart just looked at 2 different ways).

The bottom chart is painted slightly more bearish than it is in reality. The triangles actually have slightly ascending bottoms which indicates a reluctance to penetrate that support. Looks more like consecutive retests to me. Lets see what it does from here.




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May 17, 2018, 10:57:59 PM

I think scenario 2 can only last until the people who bought-in early have sold their volume. The demand is increasing faster than the supply so scenario 2 seems highly-unlikely.

Very stressed here because I am buying large (0.8btc) amounts above market price.
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May 17, 2018, 11:00:05 PM

Very stressed here because I am buying large amounts above market price.
Why? Wut?
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May 17, 2018, 11:03:50 PM
Last edit: May 18, 2018, 01:05:54 AM by Phenoca

Why?
You should ask someone less biased than me. Arthur Hayes made an interesting comment, and Wallstreet firms deciding to get involved in crypto is a turning point imo. If my banks were open 24/7 I would not be as stressed but I am desperate to find sellers. The real stress will come if it drops overnight when banks are closed. Taking risks when I do not have enough information to predict the outcome is stressful.

Banks are closed aaand price is dropping fast. Have to rely on interac but feels bad man, having this week's plans fall apart.
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May 17, 2018, 11:06:27 PM

If Arthur Hayes could build a functional service ...that would be great.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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May 17, 2018, 11:08:41 PM

I am feeling something from your posts, Toxic poxit.

Seems like every few days your chart prognostics are shifting with the prevailing winds.  

UP then SIDEWAYS then UP then DOWN then SIDEWAYS then UP then DOWN then UP then SIDEWAYS and now seemingly DOWN.   Cry Cry

Kind of like rollercoaster.....



Makes me feel like this:

snip

Are you looking to me to post charts that you can make investment strategies from?

You do whatever you want in terms of your posts to this thread.  I am just disclosing the feelings that I am having from such.    Embarrassed


I thought this was a speculation forum.

Good point.  This thread does retain some of those kinds of speculation qualities, especially, since such thread is in the speculation section, and over the years, I have witnessed some "speculation" posts, other than yours.  Cheesy


If you want my professional opinion on charts and a strategy guide email me at toxic2040@pm.me

I feel comfortable with the system that I have already developed for myself, and seems like I would devolve into a kind of bat-shit crazy status if I were to deviate too far from the approach and methodology that I am currently attempting.

I charge about .06btc per hour at current rates.

Sounds like a decent rate that might work for some folks, but not this folk.   Tongue


You want me to give my honest opinions? They change as does the market.

Honesty is a good quality.


You want me to be a cheerleader...see above.

Cheerleading can be good, too....  

Bitcoin is doing what it always does. What ever the fuck it wants.

Yes, and there are several ways to attempt to read the tea leaves, including your methodologies, which surely could be worse.

The above statement is largely a backhanded compliment.


I think the consensus is a non-issue so far and many are waiting around for a pump to acquire more coin.

Well, yeah, as far as I can tell, consensus was kind of over-blown event, especially after hearing about some of the on-the-ground reports about what was actually going on at such event - which was a whole hell-of-a lot of pumping of shit coins, which would not necessarily automatically result in some kind of bitcoin price rise, as was being proposed in a lot of circles, perhaps even in this WO thread circle by some.


Markets do not work that way. If everyone thinks it going up it most likely will not, instead it will do the opposite and pull the rug out from under you. Just to mess you up.

Yes, that is true.  If we have a lot of hype, then perhaps the opposite might end up happening... I surely agree about that phenomenon in this bitcoin and crypto space.

Surprisingly, I am somewhat comforted with the fact there has not been a huge pump and dump so far...it shows sign of a maturing market. We are still not there imho though..hence..
I will see you all sometime next year. ciao.



So?  We are going to be rid of you for more than 6 months-ish?

I doubt it.  Sounds like you are now subscribing to the theory that we are in a early to mid-2014 like scenario rather than being in a early 2013 like scenario.  Seems like you are arriving at such tentative conclusion much too early, and likely we are going to be seeing you around these parts in the coming months, if not sooner, when the price likely ends up moving a bit more than you had anticipated (or perhaps after you get a little sleep in order to not be bordering on any kind of quasi-rage quit.. and who needs more drama queens.. we gots ourselfies enough of those in this thread without you joining such drama queen wannabe club).   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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May 17, 2018, 11:16:21 PM

See you all sometime next year.

It's too early to panic or decide either way toxic, because what we are seeing at the moment is no more than a reasonable correction on the weekly chart that's been expected for a while since we've been going up more or less non-stop (on the weekly) from 6500 to nearly 10k.

I see 2 possible scenarios playing out here.

We've now retraced around 50% of that recovery and the weekly RSI is starting to approach the oversold region (7% to go conventionally). So it could either recover somewhere in the 7k to 8k area and we'd be ok to continue a healthy growth (scenario 1) - or it could continue straight down to the main support level at 6500. In the latter case the pattern would seriously start to look like scenario 2, i.e. a descending triangle pattern hammering onto that 6500 support. If it breaks it then we're looking at the next support levels being 5800 and 4500.

(The two graphics below are exactly the same chart just looked at 2 different ways).

The bottom chart is painted slightly more bearish than it is in reality. The triangles actually have slightly ascending bottoms which indicates a reluctance to penetrate that support. Looks more like consecutive retests to me. Lets see what it does from here.

[imghttps://i.imgur.com/Vcbgxm8.png[/img]http://[imghttps://i.imgur.com/oUwd4Mj.png[/img]


I realize you were not writing the above for me to respond.

I feel this dip won't be that strong but I do believe there will be a run to around ~13K before the long cold real bear market. My bottom price prediction is nearer to ~6500 for the very near future. by June 10
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May 17, 2018, 11:22:43 PM

I feel this dip won't be that strong but I do believe there will be a run to around ~13K before the long cold real bear market. My bottom price prediction is nearer to ~6500 for the very near future. by June 10

Care to explain your basis for such wide spreads ?

Since the bubble, we've been trading largely into a corner with lower highs and higher lows. That would suggest that we'll break out in one direction or the other, but not one first, then reverse all the way back beyond the lowest low. If it broke out up to your 13k level we'd have by then have had many successful retests of the 6500 support.

The "long cold bear market" of 2014/15 happened because there was no shoulder support for the December 2013 peak as there is now. It therefore had to retrace all the way back to the April 2013 266 high to find support.
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May 17, 2018, 11:30:59 PM
Last edit: May 17, 2018, 11:41:49 PM by PoolMinor

I feel this dip won't be that strong but I do believe there will be a run to around ~13K before the long cold real bear market. My bottom price prediction is nearer to ~6500 for the very near future. by June 10

Care to explain your basis for such wide spreads ?

Since the bubble, we've been trading largely into a corner with lower highs and higher lows. That would suggest that we'll break out in one direction or the other, but not one first, then reverse all the way back beyond the lowest low. If it broke out up to your 13k level we'd have by then have had many successful retests of the 6500 support.

The "long cold bear market" of 2014/15 happened because there was no shoulder support for the December 2013 peak as there is now. It therefore had to retrace all the way back to the April 2013 266 high to find support.

The prediction in simplest terms is another bull trap late June - July then a slow demise back to ~$2000 range over 7-9 months; but first during this current dip we will go as low as $6500.


Edit:

I am sure you do realize that in Bitcoin there are more factors at stake. The price of mining 1 Bitcoin definitely is not $8000, it is much less. The halvening re-adjustment period is over. There is nothing to support the price right now, and during the next price rise it will be to capture as many fools as possible. I will be buying as I have already for the next year, any price under $20,000 is a great price when we are going to $100,000+

From Feb 2018
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May 17, 2018, 11:57:09 PM

double plus ungood
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May 18, 2018, 12:01:56 AM

i'm a very not good with computer

It's funny you mention that.  Out of the large section of people I know from bitcoin, this is how it breaks down:

IQ 80 or lower:  Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode

IQ 95-105:        Thinks bitcoin is the greatest invention since the wheel and will be the world reserve currency

IQ 110-140:      Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode
Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?
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May 18, 2018, 12:16:42 AM

Go Wyoming!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/pro-business-wyoming-changes-cryptocurrency-rules-to-entice-entrepreneurs
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May 18, 2018, 12:23:08 AM

i'm a very not good with computer

It's funny you mention that.  Out of the large section of people I know from bitcoin, this is how it breaks down:

IQ 80 or lower:  Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode

IQ 95-105:        Thinks bitcoin is the greatest invention since the wheel and will be the world reserve currency

IQ 110-140:      Thinks bitcoin is some type of pyramid scam or poorly designed centralized garbage that will implode
Mine is above 140; Where does that put me?

It puts you in the awkward situation of asking r0ach for classification.
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