Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

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[aaroque2003]

Had a chat to someone involved in the CBOE futures.

He says that SEC not happy with market surveillance on physical markets and thinks they are all bucket shops.

Which we all know is true - fucking Bitmex and Bitfinex and HitBTC.  Even Kraken and Coinbase are shit shows.

We won’t get an ETF until we get higher quality Bitcoin exchanges next year (like Baakt and the Toronto Stock Exchange).  And those new exchanges are going to take some time to establish a track record of liquidity.  Which fits in nicely with the halvening time line.  The stars are lining up about a year out.

Always remember, BTC doesn't need the SEC with their ETF, they are the ones that NEED BTC.. 

[Biodom]

Had a chat to someone involved in the CBOE futures.

He says that SEC not happy with market surveillance on physical markets and thinks they are all bucket shops.

Which we all know is true - fucking Bitmex and Bitfinex and HitBTC.  Even Kraken and Coinbase are shit shows.

We won’t get an ETF until we get higher quality Bitcoin exchanges next year (like Baakt and the Toronto Stock Exchange).  And those new exchanges are going to take some time to establish a track record of liquidity.  Which fits in nicely with the halvening time line.  The stars are lining up about a year out.

lol, I am sure that they are happy with ETFs like these:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNG?p=UNG&.tsrc=fin-srch
or
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO?p=USO&.tsrc=fin-srch

f-g robbery, but I really don't care much as I never bought them.

As a tactic, I would go long physical BTC ETF and would short futures based one.
This is the way to go.

[HairyMaclairy]

Meltem Desmirrors on not being a shitcoin

https://www.slideshare.net/mobile/slideshow/embed_code/key/Gg29RYRd17mM5u

[PoolMinor]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales


And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern? And if we could conclude one of these is the actuality, does the above statement ring true?

[BlackMambaPH]

This the real reason why all altcoins going down. https://www.coindesk.com/are-big-token-sales-really-over-at-republic-event-many-think-so/

[JayJuanGee]

Despite being a New Zealander, I like this guy.

Craig as useful idiot? Sounds about right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OPCVeo1u20


(edit - around the 44 min mark)

Holy Moley  7 hours of video.  I am glad that you highlighted that the part that you are interested in is at mark 44 minutes.

Currently, I am playing this video in the background to attempt to see if there is anything interesting here.  Several of the comments below the Youtube video suggest that the video could have been boiled down to 20 minutes... Let's see?  I will likely make a subsequent comment whether I listen to the whole video or give up at some point in the process.  So far, 10 minutes into the video, which is merely the introduction for what we are getting into...


Edit:

I got through 2 hours of the video, and I don't think that I can watch anymore.  I am NOT open minded enough to believe that this guy could possibly be Satoshi.  His explanation regarding his motives for supposedly creating bitcoin, and his description of his own personal experiences seem quite lacking - especially regarding the creation of the incentive structures that seem to be intentionally built into bitcoin and his seeming inability to clearly and concisely describe his personal motivations (if he were actually satoshi)... It just does not add up for me.

[HairyMaclairy]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales


And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern? And if we could conclude one of these is the actuality, does the above statement ring true?

In the medium to long run, organic supply and organic demand, best described as adoption and scarcity in your terminology above.  Relevantly Hodl is a form of adoption.  The other factors can only shape velocity and direction temporarily.

Having the best technology is helpful but not determinative.  The best technology loses the fight all the time eg VHS v Betamax.  

Network effects (Metcalf’s law) are brutally important in internet technologies and this where Bitcoin has its real edge.  

[HairyMaclairy]

 An opinion piece arguing that tethers systemic risk to bitcoin is overstated.

https://medium.com/@sylvainartplayribes/tethers-hold-on-bitcoin-s-liquidity-a-risk-assessment-c677c9eb5c3c

[JayJuanGee]

For the record I am fine with the price going either direction,
[...]
 since my cost average is still zero (I have gained more dollars than my investment and still have coins left).

I am pretty sure that I understand what you are saying here, which is that you have already pretty much pulled out all of the amount of your principle (the amount that you invested); however, with such a great investment like bitcoin, to me, it does come off as a bit lazy for anyone who presumes to be knowledgeable about bitcoin to be just floating around in the space with assertions of "zero costs" when the BTC price has gone from $250 to $19,666 and back down to a bit below $5,800 (so far).  Accordingly, there seems to be a lot of potential (and activism potential) there that is being glossed over, if you are merely asserting "zero costs" without attempting to get into either more specific measures of your investment situation or creating a more active (and perhaps aggressive) BTC investment approach.

i take it exactly as it looks, once your initial investment pays out in the tangible assets (money, physical items of worth, knowledge, whatever) its all gravy. i would think (hope) most people in this thread are in this category, ie playing with "house money." at this point even if my stack goes to zero the minute i type this i still made out.

now, one can always argue about lost profit opportunity from this point on, buts thats another animal to me.

Probably we think differently about this matter.

From my own history, I had never considered myself to be greedy in the pursuit of money, and that had not been a motivation of mine when it came to my life/career goals.  However, once I reached adulthood, and I moved out on my own, I realized that I had to support myself and I had to have a cushion in my budget.  My own pride and desire for self-sufficiency caused me to not want to go back to my parents for any reason to get a loan or to ask them for money - even though I am pretty confident that they would have provided me such a thing.. Therefore, I always thought that I needed a cushion, and therefore, I always considered that I had to monitor my system and approach to investing, to live within my means and to keep a certain aspect of my investment portfolio profitable. 

Part of my point in my above response is to suggest that in my own view and opinion, it is NOT enough for me to merely assert that "I got my principle back and I am 'in profits' " and I continually want to know more about my performance than those kinds of mere simplicities.  I don't necessarily expect others to carry out the same as me, but I still will question if anyone who seems to be asserting that it is enough data for them to conclude that they are "in profits" and they don't want to engage in further self-improvement. 

I am NOT referring to standards that are imposed on anyone from the outside but merely about standards that are imposed on oneself in his/her own aspirations and monitoring of his/her own progress.  I actually tend to resent when standards are imposed on me from someone else or someone suggest that I need to do x, y or z, but it does not seem unreasonable in my thinking to attempt to impose standards upon yourself and to attempt to monitor whether I am reaching my standards.. and that is part of the purpose of continued analysis rather than merely throwing up ones hands and asserting "I am in profits because I got my principle back."

[JayJuanGee]

yup, working 7am to 6pm. acquire more FIAT which we can exchange to BTC. get rich and retired in 2022.

Does the fact that you bought bitcoin like 5 years ago make any difference on the life you live right now moneywise, do you take profits and buy stuff you otherwise couldn't afford with your job, or do you just reinvest more?

im not Gyrsur but i mined btc back in 2011 onward and also buy/bought here and there over the years.

my answers are huge yes, big yes, and yes.

May I ask what is the percentage between total incoming BTC over that time and currently hodl'ed BTC is? Or maximum BTC hodled vs currently....

hard to tell. back when i started and btc was so cheap i didnt really pay attention. i got in it for the experimental aspect more than any profit. all i know is, aside from the first few years, every year i have less btc, but the real world value of that lessor amount of coins is more. usually much more.

as a miner you can look at it as dollar cost averaging, more or less. like i "buy" coin every week, non stop as long as i mine. then sell as needed.

ive mainly used btc as a kind of a "level up" thing. as in i mainly used them to "upgrade" stuff like vacations, toys, gifts etc to a higher level than i would of without btc. occasionally i would lock a chunk of profit up and put it into efts or other non crypto assets that (hopefully) earn returns in a more conventional, less risky way but of course with much less potential profit.

So it seems to appear that you are regularly taking profits in fiat and consumable goods, and you are not stacking aside bitcoin in a kind of fundamental view that bitcoin could potentially have more value some day. 

I understand that you have been in bitcoin longer than me, but largely I have considered bitcoin as something to attempt to stack up, so if I spend BTC, then I attempt to replace the ones that I spent.  I have been looser with myself regarding this in recent times, because I have established some ways to monitory my fiat versus BTC level, and created my own reasoned considerations regarding how many BTC that I want to maintain at certain price points, and if I have at least enough BTC to continue to reach that stacking BTC goal, then I don't mind shaving off a bit extra fiat for consumable goods.

[infofront]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

Human psychology

[realr0ach]

Jew servant/grade-Z actor Obama gave a speech lying for an entire hour straight then proceeded to complain about "Nazis" and the fact nobody trusts the Jewish media.  The vampiric Yids are a paper tiger that's powerless without media monopolies and debt based monetary scams to prop them up.  Remove those tools and the light causes vampires discomfort:

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1038149214176464897?s=21

    

[goldkingcoiner]

Jew servant/grade-Z actor Obama gave a speech lying for an entire hour straight then proceeded to complain about "Nazis" and the fact nobody trusts the Jewish media.  The vampiric Yids are a paper tiger that's powerless without media monopolies and debt based monetary scams to prop them up.  Remove those tools and the light causes vampires discomfort:

But what if bitcoin itself is a jewish scheme to sieze control of the worlds money? What if satoshi nakamoto is actually satoshi goldberg? What happens then? What if jews are aliens? What if aliens steal our bitcoins? What if bitcoins are jewish alien technology?

[Aqualung89]

This year will almost end, and so far there is no positive air surge in the markets. This is how many people will know how many people will say something, but there is nothing definite.

[d_eddie]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern? And if we could conclude one of these is the actuality, does the above statement ring true?

Scarcity (long term)
News (short term)
Whales (short-medium term)

and Human psychology (always) as infofront said, since all 8 sources except scarcity can be traced back to it, ultimately.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[HairyMaclairy]

Weiss are idiots but it makes for a fun read

https://weisscryptocurrencyratings.com/news/4-bitcoin-bull-markets-big-lessons-learn-1308

In other news

[bitserve]

^^^LOL ^^^