Bitcoin Forum
August 15, 2020, 02:52:11 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.20.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: 8/16 Closing Price (yeah, it's a Sunday):
0 - 1 (3%)
<$10,500 - 2 (6.1%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 0 (0%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 5 (15.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 5 (15.2%)
$12,000-$12,500 - 9 (27.3%)
>$12,500 - 10 (30.3%)
>$20,000 - 1 (3%)
Total Voters: 33

Pages: « 1 ... 21081 21082 21083 21084 21085 21086 21087 21088 21089 21090 21091 21092 21093 21094 21095 21096 21097 21098 21099 21100 21101 21102 21103 21104 21105 21106 21107 21108 21109 21110 21111 21112 21113 21114 21115 21116 21117 21118 21119 21120 21121 21122 21123 21124 21125 21126 21127 21128 21129 21130 [21131] 21132 21133 21134 21135 21136 21137 21138 21139 21140 21141 21142 21143 21144 21145 21146 21147 21148 21149 21150 21151 21152 21153 21154 21155 21156 21157 21158 21159 21160 21161 21162 21163 21164 21165 21166 21167 21168 21169 21170 21171 21172 21173 21174 21175 21176 21177 21178 21179 21180 21181 ... 27117 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21807261 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 17, 2018, 11:03:18 PM

Wife knows all about what I got and is cool and calm about it all and trusts me to sell when it is the right time to.

We have plans to build a new house. We bought the land back in December last year, sold enough BTC to pay for the land deposit and architect fees then, pretty much a day before the peak. It has been a long drawn out process getting planning sorted, the plans are not quite finalised yet still.

What I have in BTC is enough to build half the planned house, and so we sit and wait for it to come back up before we start building.

We currently own our current house with only a small mortgage left on it as well, so we aren't wasting rent money waiting here. Just with a toddler and a baby now, the current house is getting a bit cramped.

New house is going to be in the order of 10,000 sqft all up on a 5 acre plot. Grin

Your purported situation comes off as if it were contrived in that you are both suggesting that you sold a large chunk of your BTC at the top of the market and that you are waiting for the BTC price to go up in order to be able to carry out the rest of the project - perhaps even short-sighted if you are planning real estate projects based on bitcoin price movements without any other cushion.

Does your wife happen to be a 10, too?   or at least a 9.3? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1597459931
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597459931

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597459931
Reply with quote  #2

1597459931
Report to moderator
1597459931
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597459931

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597459931
Reply with quote  #2

1597459931
Report to moderator
1597459931
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597459931

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597459931
Reply with quote  #2

1597459931
Report to moderator
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 17, 2018, 11:08:31 PM

Would you prefer Proudhon?

You make me feel like this, Hairybeary:

Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 1670


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
September 17, 2018, 11:27:27 PM

All of this is still just noise. Wake me up if price goes below $6,00.

Fuck!
I’ll hang myself if it goes below 6 dollars Grin


Wtf i think there Will be Many hangings if that happens.......

Right now it would actually be amusing as all the hangings would be on Wall Street! Cheesy

Everyone here would just buy M0ar!

Something similar already happened in 2011 when gox got hacked, and Bitcoin crashed to one cent each. The price went back up afterwards and 2011 hodlers are now rich. If it goes below $6 I'll be simultaneously buying and crying.

LOL, the Crying Buy! Do we have a Meme for that?

Reminds me of the Crying call in poker. Cheesy

I had to make one for a grand last week when the board went runner runner straight on my set.





JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 17, 2018, 11:42:27 PM




These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).




I like your analysis generally. 

Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.

Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.


'Baby Winter'  :  could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.

Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.


You would not presume that I would not quibble a bit with the tension in what you are saying, here,  which seems to be referring to: 1) a variation of possible outcomes and 2) your seeming contrasting of a "baby winter" versus a "full winter" as if those were the only two scenarios.

Your statements seems to in tension.. hahahahahaha

relieve the tension... relieve the tension.




In that regard, it seems to me that there are a lot of scenario variants in between the 1) "bottom is in" versus the 2) "bottom is in the $2k-$3k arena.   Even though one or the other scenario might be the most likely of scenarios, merely because another scenario might be less likely would not reasonably conclude that the less likely variant would NOT end up being the outcome (which plays well into the nobody knows idea, even while perhaps being able to agree on scenarios that are more likely but don't end up playing out even while they are more likely). 
toknormal
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2240
Merit: 1173


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:00:17 AM


It appears big players are accumulating. It's only the small ones that are selling.

OBV is giving a contrary indication to EMA price moving averages and has been on an uptrend since late March.


ssmc2
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946
Merit: 1037


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:14:06 AM


It appears big players are accumulating. It's only the small ones that are selling.

OBV is giving a contrary indication to EMA price moving averages and has been on an uptrend since late March. Top




Interesting.  Has this been an indicator of future price movement in the past?
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:18:31 AM

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  Grin

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...


In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.
Resumean
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 157
Merit: 10


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:58:27 AM

JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 01:13:38 AM

CAUTION! Volatile days ahead:



Yeah that doesn’t read good I’m afraid. If I was a day trader I’d go short right now.

"Going short" means using margin, right?

Is there a way to still be a day trader without using margin?  

So, if you are trader that does NOT use margin, then that would be selling, right now.  Either way (using margin to bet on down or selling right now), does not seem good to me.  But what do I know?  especially when it comes to profitably playing the dynamics of margin?
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 01:29:21 AM

It's like climbing mount Everest for weeks and then going down in a high speed elevator in minutes! Anyway, the best thing you can do is HODL!  Cool

That is quite the elevator, image.  A more than 5 mile elevator, whoaza!!!!


It would not look this nice.




But it would not look as extreme as a space elevator, either.  Somewhere in the middle.

JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 02:01:10 AM

Just to be clear, are we using reversed barts and the like unironically here?
Yep


I don't like the term "reverse bart" because it looks more like an "upside down bart" to me.
BTCHadzija
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238
Merit: 113



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 02:21:48 AM

lmao

Searing
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2548
Merit: 1326

Clueless!


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 02:23:03 AM

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  Grin

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...


In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

with the world the way it is (Trump Admin and I expect a doozy of a Recession as a result of the 1/2 Trillion Dollar Permanent tax cuts to the wealthy in the USA)

I am following this plan. I retired in Jan when BTC and ALTS were high (duh) thus the goal is to last until I'm 65 at worst or 66 at best (full retirement age w/soc sec) with my

crypto assets. With all the drama I finally just took all my assets traditional and crypto and cut them in HALF for returns etc for retirement use until 66 years. My worse case guess say.

Thus working with the disabled in my lifetime of work I had the buying power of my working life of about $35k say average....with 1/2 assets in crypto, as I state above shot down to 1/2

of value of today...still.. 35k buying power is still possible if needed

the next 3 years till traditional investments and social security kick in (even thou have to buy my own insurance till 65 years for next 1.5 years)

and if crypto and all goes poof or even less than half value in next 2-3 years my traditional investments will cover me at 66 with soc sec etc (no debts) at you guessed it 35k

Thus, figure it is out of my hands. If I am correct..covered...if I am not I'm in much better shape...viewing it this way than fretting about it ..anyway...how I look at this.

Been thru 5 recessions...I'd suggest folk, pay off the j.c.penny card and such..knock off debts, get new tires, do SOMETHING in a proactive manner because we are more than due

for a recession. IMHO. Again, if I'm wrong I'm still Golden ..if I am right at least I did something. Again, always helps to have your debts down and ducks in a row when such happens.

You are a LOT less hard on yourself.

anyway, my coping mechanism these days. I really can't see folk selling their hoard of BTC or altcoins at 25% loss (15% cap gains and in my case 10% state taxes) just to watch

the stock market goes down 40% after you swap them to traditional investments. (yeah, I know typical downturn is 20% and takes 3-4yrs to recover from. I'm betting 40% deep

a recession and 7  years to recover from) Thus losing 'potentially' 65% of your BTC and/or altcoin stash as worse-case IF BTC and altcoins act like gold and go sideways or up

in such times, ie a store of value...well...again seems damn silly, to put BTC or alt into such ..I'll take my chances HODL mode or as much as I can and stay retired

You can bug me about how wrong I may be on this in 3 years on the thread....but how I'm 'dubiously' mentally and such preparing for the next recession. Just saying HODL.

Chump or Champ in HODL mode. We will be the first to know I guess. (after the fact as usual)Sad

JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 02:33:57 AM

All of this is still just noise. Wake me up if price goes below $6,00.

Fuck!
I’ll hang myself if it goes below 6 dollars Grin


Wtf i think there Will be Many hangings if that happens.......

Right now it would actually be amusing as all the hangings would be on Wall Street! Cheesy

Everyone here would just buy M0ar!

Something similar already happened in 2011 when gox got hacked, and Bitcoin crashed to one cent each. The price went back up afterwards and 2011 hodlers are now rich. If it goes below $6 I'll be simultaneously buying and crying.

LOL, the Crying Buy! Do we have a Meme for that?

Reminds me of the Crying call in poker. Cheesy

I had to make one for a grand last week when the board went runner runner straight on my set.


How about this one?

Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 1670


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 02:46:33 AM



How about this one?



Haha, close. I think we will need one one day but hopefully not soon. Cheesy
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3064


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 02:54:31 AM

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  Grin

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...


In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

with the world the way it is (Trump Admin and I expect a doozy of a Recession as a result of the 1/2 Trillion Dollar Permanent tax cuts to the wealthy in the USA) I am following this plan. I retired in Jan when BTC and ALTS were high (duh) thus the goal is to last until I'm 65 at worst or 66 at best (full retirement age w/soc sec) with my crypto assets. With all the drama I finally just took all my assets traditional and crypto and cut them in HALF for returns etc for retirement use until 66 years. My worse case guess say.

I do something very similar to that, which is projecting negative scenarios that are pretty extreme (but still within the realm of reasonably possible), and then establishing my budget around such negative case scenarios, so if the scenario turns out better than my projection, then I have icing on my cake of profits.... which usually ends up being the case... but it seems better to prepare for the more negative scenarios both financially and psychologically.



Thus working with the disabled in my lifetime of work I had the buying power of my working life of about $35k say average....with 1/2 assets in crypto, as I state above shot down to 1/2 of value of today...still.. 35k buying power is still possible if needed the next 3 years till traditional investments and social security kick in (even thou have to buy my own insurance till 65 years for next 1.5 years)
and if crypto and all goes poof or even less than half value in next 2-3 years my traditional investments will cover me at 66 with soc sec etc (no debts) at you guessed it 35k

Another way to consider the matter is to half your current income or cashflow, and to be able to live off of $17,500 (and therefore the remainder value is cushion).  S

It sounds as if your overall plan is preparing you both financially and psychologically for possible and considerably negative scenarios.
eddie13
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1582
Merit: 1492


BTC or BUST


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 03:09:39 AM

I doubt many of expected it to break 10k, then quickly pump up to 20k. I thought it would briefly touch 10k then crash back down again. At least you didn't buy back at a higher price than you sold at. Sell high, buy back low.

Yeah, $10k looked like that wall that wouldn't fall, so I sold some infront of it, and did something nice with the money, the value is still there.. I guess $20k was the wall that really wouldn't fall but I couldn't bear to look, lol. I just knew I wasn't going to sell any more of it..

I need to make it back to get over it but it's been hard for me to get started trading again..



I don't like the term "reverse bart" because it looks more like an "upside down bart" to me.

Inverted bart..
In this case a particularly rare Reverted bart..
d_eddie
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1148
Merit: 943



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 03:51:02 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:41:14 AM by d_eddie
Merited by dbshck (2), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

"Going short" means using margin, right?
More or less, yes.

Quote
Is there a way to still be a day trader without using margin?  
It's not a sharp yes/no matter, using margin. What actually matters is the leverage. If you're positioned below 1:1 margin, you're actually not "using margin" as common sense understands it.

If, unrealistically, you went short at 1:10 (0.1x leverage), that would mean using nominal 10$ chips each actually worth just 1$. Leverage under 1x can be considered a "negative" money multiplier because the money amount gets shrunk rather than blown up.

What realistically happens most of the time is positive leverage, like 1.2:1, 2:1 or 5:1. (1.2x, 2x, 5x). Or even 100:1, for that matter. In the latter case, you play with 1$ chips actually worth 100$. Null leverage means 1:1, because it's the neutral muliplier: "no multiply, no margin".

Quote
So, if you are trader that does NOT use margin, then that would be selling, right now.  Either way (using margin to bet on down or selling right now), does not seem good to me.  But what do I know?  especially when it comes to profitably playing the dynamics of margin?

Using your play money to short with negative, null or slightly positive leverage can help you hedge your stash. You take a hit on your stash when the corn goes down, but you are rewarded on your play money if you cash out your short. A little sugar on the pill. A penny for your pain. I've been doing this a lot and I still am. Little bites here and there, but they do add up.

Of course, you have to let go of the short (probably using a stop loss order) if it begins losing too much. Hopefully, it will only be a dent in your overal profit made of little bites. The corn stole your last bite of play money profit, but that means your stash is growing in value again.

Once again, it's about finding a system that works for you. Setting your stops straight can help. At what price do I cash out? At what price do I give up and write the short off at a loss? By reserving major tweaking for special situations, you can get the luxury of carelessness, since you know your best and worst outcomes in advance.

Learn, rinse, repeat. Each learning session costs. Receivng lessons at bargain prices is quite valuable.
Paashaas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2394
Merit: 1938



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 03:52:29 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

in 2010 $BTC +700%

in 2010 $BTC -65%, followed by +540%

in 2011 $BTC -48%, followed by +5500%

in 2011 $BTC -93%, followed by +12800%

in 2013 $BTC -81%, followed by +1600%

in 2014 $BTC -86%, followed by +12600%

in 2018 $BTC -75%, followed by...

Just buy and Hodl, the road to $100k and beyond will be bumpy but glorious.
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218
Merit: 1962


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 04:11:09 AM
Merited by dbshck (1), Totscha (1), d_eddie (1)

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  
Pages: « 1 ... 21081 21082 21083 21084 21085 21086 21087 21088 21089 21090 21091 21092 21093 21094 21095 21096 21097 21098 21099 21100 21101 21102 21103 21104 21105 21106 21107 21108 21109 21110 21111 21112 21113 21114 21115 21116 21117 21118 21119 21120 21121 21122 21123 21124 21125 21126 21127 21128 21129 21130 [21131] 21132 21133 21134 21135 21136 21137 21138 21139 21140 21141 21142 21143 21144 21145 21146 21147 21148 21149 21150 21151 21152 21153 21154 21155 21156 21157 21158 21159 21160 21161 21162 21163 21164 21165 21166 21167 21168 21169 21170 21171 21172 21173 21174 21175 21176 21177 21178 21179 21180 21181 ... 27117 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!