Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

hard to tell. back when i started and btc was so cheap i didnt really pay attention. i got in it for the experimental aspect more than any profit. all i know is, aside from the first few years, every year i have less btc, but the real world value of that lessor amount of coins is more. usually much more.

as a miner you can look at it as dollar cost averaging, more or less. like i "buy" coin every week, non stop as long as i mine. then sell as needed.

ive mainly used btc as a kind of a "level up" thing. as in i mainly used them to "upgrade" stuff like vacations, toys, gifts etc to a higher level than i would of without btc. occasionally i would lock a chunk of profit up and put it into efts or other non crypto assets that (hopefully) earn returns in a more conventional, less risky way but of course with much less potential profit.

So it seems to appear that you are regularly taking profits in fiat and consumable goods, and you are not stacking aside bitcoin in a kind of fundamental view that bitcoin could potentially have more value some day. 

I understand that you have been in bitcoin longer than me, but largely I have considered bitcoin as something to attempt to stack up, so if I spend BTC, then I attempt to replace the ones that I spent.  I have been looser with myself regarding this in recent times, because I have established some ways to monitory my fiat versus BTC level, and created my own reasoned considerations regarding how many BTC that I want to maintain at certain price points, and if I have at least enough BTC to continue to reach that stacking BTC goal, then I don't mind shaving off a bit extra fiat for consumable goods.

im guessing you are younger than i. im on the wrong side of fifty. at my age i take less risk as im too old to start over.

Of course, age should be a considered factor for any investment strategy, yet to me, it seems that my assertion of your approach is not so much related to age, but instead what seems to be your gunshyness about BTC.

Of course, you can do whatever, you believe is best for you and your family, and like I mentioned in my previous post, I had already developed a pretty decent portfolio of investments prior to my involvement in BTC, so therefore, my BTC has been a kind of icing on the cake of my previous investments.  I don't feel any compelling need to reallocate into my other investments apart from the fact that I believe that my strategy of selling BTC on the way UP and buying BTC on the way down (largely with the proceeds that I have accumulated on the way UP) causes a largely sufficient amount of lessening the risk of the BTC portion of my investment.

So, overall, I consider that my taking about a 13%-ish investment into bitcoin as compared to the value of my other investments was perhaps a few percent higher than I initially had planned, but such allocation has allowed me to feel o.k. if BTC prices go down (and perhaps even the a bit higher than anticipated initial investment into BT causes me to feel o.k. shaving off some profits as the prices go UP. .and NOT getting too anxious either way that hte price moves.. even though of course, I feel much better when BTC prices are UP and going up... but still, even considering all matters, if BTC prices were to go to $1k, that is still 4x higher than BTC prices were through most of 2015 - and I even doubt that there is very much likelihood that BTC prices are going to go to $1k.. They would surely have to break through a lot of support levels to get down to the $1k arena.. even seeming to have some difficulties getting below $6k and/or staying below $6k for any meaningful amount of time.

if i were younger i certainly would be increasing my stack as finances allow. i hope to get back to that too once certain new goals are met. but as of right now, other priorities are more important.

Nothing wrong with that.  Tentatively, I am thinking that I might start cashing out of BTC in 5 to 10 years, but that tentative timeline is not going to cause me to NOT cash out some sooner, if I believe that it might work for me for whatever reason.  I already have a fund that pretty much is allocated to buying BTC on the way down and enough BTC to sell on the way up to keep fueling the fund.. So generally, I tend to extract anticipated future expenses from my other monies... which seems to go to the principle of NOT investing more than you can afford to lose.. while at the same time, I have no problem with guys (and gal) who consider it to be in their interest to permanently cash out some of their BTC holdings on the way up in order to lock in profits and perhaps not even having a buying back plan on dips.. I just find it a bit more problematic to be cashing out on the way down.. but that relates to me and how I attempt to prepare myself which I understand might NOT have worked out as well for some other folks.

not depleting your stack and especially increasing your stack is always a good thing. for instance i have recently taken advantage of btcs currently lower price to replace some that i sold ~100% higher earlier in the year. but im still down btc from last year.

That seems to be a good thing, and supports a conclusion that you have been cashing out some BTC on the way up.   I don't think that it is necessary for any BTC investor / HODLer to necessarily maintain his/her stack quantity, because there should be some projection that as the BTC price goes up, the quantity of your BTC stash would go down, unless you happen to have some lucky breaks along the way.. and of course, with ongoing BTC volatility and expected continued BTC volatility, there are likely going to be some lucky breaks along the way, just built into the already existing BTC price dynamics - and likely expectations.

i see btc as a tool. a new, experimental tool to manage value. and its still experimental really. there is still the risk it will fail.

Seems that you have been in BTC long enough to recognize that BTC has gotten past quite a few obstacles in recent years, and the level of its experimentation is NOT as high as it was a few years ago.  Furthermore, those of us who have spent a considerable amount of tim e learning about BTC are able to advantage ourselves from the disparity of information and the ignorance of the public regarding this particular topic.   Even though we may want to prepare ourselves for either scenario, we should not be so timid as to underinvest in BTC just because we see a lot of stupid-ass bearish information out there that is based on misinformation or perhaps purposeful disinformation about the topic that we know about - namely BTC.

or, through personal error, my wallets could get compromised and coins stolen.

Of course, these things can happen, but the more that we know about bitcoin, the more we know that it is necessary to take several precautions to lessen these kinds of risks - even if we are NOT able to completely remove them.  Once again, if we have been in bitcoin awhile then we can learn as we go on these matters and recognize various security measures that are important (perhaps necessary) that newbies BTC investors are not going to as likely recognize.

so im using part of my stack to diversify into different non crypto holding in case it all goes south.

Do what you like, because it is ultimately your money.. but hopeful you are NOT being too BTC timid and selling on dips rather than selling when the price goes up.... Ultimately, you are the sovereign of your own BTC investment and its allocation level(s).

maybe because i got into it fairly early, i still see it as a tool to be used, not as a "get rich" thing. although i hope we all do. but currently im using it now to secure our (wife and i) future with as little risk as possible.

To me, it seems that if you had been in longer then you would not seem to be coming off as someone who is selling on the way down... hahahahha  or possibly advocating that others consider such an approach... and being in a long time should have already allowed you to do what you need to do when prices were going up.. .hopefully.

so on average for the last few years i have generally spent more btc than i replace.

There is nothing wrong with that, and seems definitely acceptable when your coins are in decent profits.

at this stage in my life  i have changed some priorities and used btc profit to try and ensure a more than comfortable retirement (if all goes even close to well). we were at the point that retirement should go well for us anyway but its time to revisit that position and nail down a few potential lose ends. once im happy with that i will go back to accumulation. at least i hope to.

It sounds as if you are in a decent position, and surely it is neither bad to rethink your allocations from time to time and also to reconsider your fiat-based reserves.  Part of my reason for getting into bitcoin in the first place was that I was looking for a gold-like investment of an asset that was possibly inversely correlated to the performance of the dollar - because I thought that I had too many investments that seemed to be too highly correlated to the dollar's performance.  I never really liked gold for its storage difficulties and I had always been skeptical about paper gold (and the degree to which it would be sufficiently non-correlated to the dollar's performance), so therefore bitcoin seems to have been (for me) a much better (more portable too) version of gold and could take on some of the diversification risk that I thought that I needed in my overall investments.  

I still don't feel overallocated into bitcoin, but I understand that others might conclude or even reanalyze and conclude that they are more allocated into BTC than what they consider (after reanalysis) to be prudent.

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[infofront]

well, as a quite newbie (10 months) in crypto, i have to admit that im losing faith right now.
I want to be a holder (yes thats how we write this right?) but what worries me is not the ups and downs itself, but the rediculous drops that happened 3 times now... This means that some people actually can control my money.... again... And i dont like it.
Who can garantee that not all bitcoin eventually evaporates?
I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value. Thats hugely dissapointing...

Everyone has a opinion here in bitcointalk, even some experts out there. It ranges from 2k to 150k dec18. How to take anyting in between serious? I see pretty graphs, all made in a way someone thinks instead of based on facts or knowledge, calculations, etc. Whats the value of it? Zilch...
Take a look back to all those pretty graphs... I bet none came actually true...

crypto? I think ponzi more and more...


Proof me wrong, please....

Here's a bitcoin chart going back to 2010. How many crashes and bear markets have we had already?
Long term, what direction is bitcoin going in?

[JayJuanGee]

Unpleasant reality)

maybe your reality . certainly not mine

There is like a hope, hope, hope...

Some folks are feeling hope that they can buy back lower and not happy about buying at current prices, feel like they did not buy enough at $5,774-ish and hoping for lower.. hoping, hoping, hoping.

Let us hope that they that are to greedy.... and sitting on the side-lines Will be sitting there forever , watching the Rockets and traint but don’t be sitting on them

hahahahaha...

I agree with you.  I certainly get a certain amount of decent pleasure when BTC goes into a kind of "punishment mode" which causes a lot of the sideliners to either continue to sit back in awe or just give up and buy some BTC at a premium.. which may end up being at or near the top of the punishment run.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Still up over 40% on the price this time last year

[JayJuanGee]

What about a situation if/when fiat goes 'south'. All calculations would be out of the window, then.
IMHO, we are within 5 years of , perhaps, a low double digit inflation episode.
What then?

as i said, i have and continue to make/modify plans that take into account worse case scenarios, at least as far as i am able. the potential failure of fiat is included in those plans. but, so is the failure of btc.

personally i am quite confident in btc rising in value. but i wont stake our future on just btc. or just fiat. we need to survive either ones failure. and even then its possible both will fail. thats my biggest worry, both go south. but its possible to survive that too, if you have enough things of value that can be traded for whatever is needed.

btc, fiat, physical holdings. one fails, no biggie, but annoying. two fail, well thats gonna hurt but its still possible to survive ok, although it will almost certainly suck a lot. but it still beats being homeless, starving and depending on others. all three fail? well, it was fun while it lasted. hopefully one has knowledge or skills that are in demand.

its not that simple of course, but thats my general view.

Of course, it is good to have various tentative plans for a wide variety of scenarios, but it is also not prudent to plan 50/50 or even betting 5% on an event that only has a .0238495% chance of happening.  Each of us should be attempting to be honest with ourselves and honestly attempting to allocate reasonably both upside and downside and tweaking from time to time (as you seem to already be in the practice of doing).

[hodl_2015]

Proof me wrong, please....

I sold my couple BTC around $260, well before the jump to $1200 in 2013. bought again when it dropped to $600 after that. It went all the way down to $200 while I kept accumulating (and loosing) more. didn't sell at $19000. after all that, I'm still ok.
bitcoin exists almost 10 years and every year more people know what it is and more people use it. it has not been replaced by any alt-coin. The only practice use of any alt-coin is buying bitcoins.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD choose the "all" timeframe and select the log-scale (top-left in graph), change mBTC to BTC in the options if you prefer. The drop in the last 10 months doen't look that impressive. People still trust bitcoin and are ready to buy when the trend returns to upward. $20k is not an insane price any more.

[dutchlincoln]

well, as a quite newbie (10 months) in crypto, i have to admit that im losing faith right now.
I want to be a holder (yes thats how we write this right?) but what worries me is not the ups and downs itself, but the rediculous drops that happened 3 times now... This means that some people actually can control my money.... again... And i dont like it.
Who can garantee that not all bitcoin eventually evaporates?
I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value. Thats hugely dissapointing...

Everyone has a opinion here in bitcointalk, even some experts out there. It ranges from 2k to 150k dec18. How to take anyting in between serious? I see pretty graphs, all made in a way someone thinks instead of based on facts or knowledge, calculations, etc. Whats the value of it? Zilch...
Take a look back to all those pretty graphs... I bet none came actually true...

crypto? I think ponzi more and more...


Proof me wrong, please....

Here's a bitcoin chart going back to 2010. How many crashes and bear markets have we had already?
Long term, what direction is bitcoin going in?

maybe stupid on my side, but as a not native, i dont exactly know how to read the graph/comment.
Sure, overall it goes up... But when did whales enter crypto market? How reliable are tose lines, as they get adjusted flatter and flatter...
who thought the values on the right? logharithmic scale? you can design any graph the way you want , in order you show to others what you want them to see... Makes me a critic towards graphs.

i hope it becomes reality, but :What is reality?


darn...

i bought my 2 kids both an gpu eth miner to educate them into crypto as it beomes their world, and i want to prepare them on their future.... Better just gave them the money they costed...

[JayJuanGee]

$5xxx's here we come...

NOT quite yet...

Pray, pray, pray.. you negative Nancies.    

And down we go

Don’t like seeing the CAP goes under 200.000.000$ but BTC dominance up 55.4% So we have to look like Thats cheering us up  

I’m going to release some fiat this week & start buying again. I haven’t bought since 2015. I’ve just been HODLING.
I think considering we hit nearly $20,000 & have now fallen to $6,000 this represents a GREAT time to buy now. I think we’ll hit $50,000 not long after the halving so buying now you will make nearly over 10 x your investment if you buy now.

I’m definitely going to buy MOAR if we stay in this price range.

I know it´s not a popular opinion here but I would be careful.

We hit 20k because of mass media attracting tons of newcomers and massive FOMO from them. This will not happen again.

Now the rise has to be more or less natural.

So while I am sure the Halving will move the price up I am not sure if it even goes to 20k.

Oh my!!!!!

Isn't this the ever-present repeated theme when the price is going down to come up (not exactly original) never again scenarios?

Do you conclude that BTC has already reached mass adoption, based on less than 1% of world wide adoption?  Get a fucking grip with the purported facts that you are relying upon for your lame ass "never again" FUD propagating prediction.   

[dutchlincoln]

......      $20k is not an insane price any more.

i so hope you are right... Wish i had a guarantee for half of it...

[gembitz]

Proof me wrong, please....

I sold my couple BTC around $260, well before the jump to $1200 in 2013. bought again when it dropped to $600 after that. It went all the way down to $200 while I kept accumulating (and loosing) more. didn't sell at $19000. after all that, I'm still ok.
bitcoin exists almost 10 years and every year more people know what it is and more people use it. it has not been replaced by any alt-coin. The only practice use of any alt-coin is buying bitcoins.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD choose the "all" timeframe and select the log-scale (top-left in graph), change mBTC to BTC in the options if you prefer. The drop in the last 10 months doen't look that impressive. People still trust bitcoin and are ready to buy when the trend returns to upward. $20k is not an insane price any more.

selling BTC at $300 per coin to buy a used car screwed me lol

[aaroque2003]

The ‘Crash’ is in ETH. What a shit show...

INDEED... LOL.... 

now.... WHY would it be funny if others lose money?

Just because its not "your" favorite coin?

These childish ego responses start to make me sick on this board...

Because I lose money too..?   ... But thanks God I shorted last week, following my guts and all I had learned here from more experienced members in this game..... Been learning 1 1/2 year..... practically still a newbie compare to them, everyday is another lesson in CryptoLand, and I love it. And yes, ETH is not my favorite coin...  

[becoin]

i bought my 2 kids both an gpu eth miner to educate them into crypto as it beomes their world, and i want to prepare them on their future.... Better just gave them the money they costed...

So you're mining an altcoin and you want guarantees about bitcoin's future, right?

[HairyMaclairy]

I am playing around with Google Trends data of "Bitcoin" as a search term v Bitcoin price.  I used the daily values for each for 2018, converted to a percentage.  Start date is 1 January 2018, end date is 5 September 2018.

Price is orange, trend data is green.  

[JayJuanGee]

well, as a quite newbie (10 months) in crypto, i have to admit that im losing faith right now.
I want to be a holder (yes thats how we write this right?) but what worries me is not the ups and downs itself, but the rediculous drops that happened 3 times now... This means that some people actually can control my money.... again... And i dont like it.
Who can garantee that not all bitcoin eventually evaporates?
I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value. Thats hugely dissapointing...

Everyone has a opinion here in bitcointalk, even some experts out there. It ranges from 2k to 150k dec18. How to take anyting in between serious? I see pretty graphs, all made in a way someone thinks instead of based on facts or knowledge, calculations, etc. Whats the value of it? Zilch...
Take a look back to all those pretty graphs... I bet none came actually true...

crypto? I think ponzi more and more...


Proof me wrong, please....

Nobody has any burden to prove anything to you.

You decide to invest, and you need to live with your decision and figure out an investment strategy that works for your situation and your ability to have and to carry out a long term plan despite periods of correction that can be quite brutal, as you suggested.

Good luck, getting your negative emotions together and figuring out some kind of meaningful plan.  Seems to me that you invested more than you can afford to lose at the top with ONLY an expectation that prices will go up or that there would be "reasonable limitations" in the price downside - and as any of us should know markets can be completely unreasonable.

You are  full of shit, to the extent to which you are lumping all crypto together as if they were one thing.  Go to some alt coin thread to post your tears.. this is a bitcoin thread, not a crypto whine lumping thread.       

[gembitz]

i bought my 2 kids both an gpu eth miner to educate them into crypto as it beomes their world, and i want to prepare them on their future.... Better just gave them the money they costed...

So you're mining an altcoin and you want guarantees about bitcoin's future, right?

gpus bro so when this video game dies they will be still useful lol

[serveria.com]

well, as a quite newbie (10 months) in crypto, i have to admit that im losing faith right now.
I want to be a holder (yes thats how we write this right?) but what worries me is not the ups and downs itself, but the rediculous drops that happened 3 times now... This means that some people actually can control my money.... again... And i dont like it.
Who can garantee that not all bitcoin eventually evaporates?
I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value. Thats hugely dissapointing...

Everyone has a opinion here in bitcointalk, even some experts out there. It ranges from 2k to 150k dec18. How to take anyting in between serious? I see pretty graphs, all made in a way someone thinks instead of based on facts or knowledge, calculations, etc. Whats the value of it? Zilch...
Take a look back to all those pretty graphs... I bet none came actually true...

crypto? I think ponzi more and more...


Proof me wrong, please....

Nobody has any burden to prove anything to you.

You decide to invest, and you need to live with your decision and figure out an investment strategy that works for your situation and your ability to have and to carry out a long term plan despite periods of correction that can be quite brutal, as you suggested.

Good luck, getting your negative emotions together and figuring out some kind of meaningful plan.  Seems to me that you invested more than you can afford to lose at the top with ONLY an expectation that prices will go up or that there would be "reasonable limitations" in the price downside - and as any of us should know markets can be completely unreasonable.

You are  full of shit, to the extent to which you are lumping all crypto together as if they were one thing.  Go to some alt coin thread to post your tears.. this is a bitcoin thread, not a crypto whine lumping thread.       

Don't waste your time on this bear shill and his whining. Better put him on ignore....

[Dunkelheit667]

...
But when did whales enter crypto market?
...

Well, if I remember correctly, this term became popular during the peaks from 2013 ($266 and $1242), Mt.Gox, Willy, the Bearwhale and stuff... If someone bought at the 2013 top, he/she/it 'made' ~ 400% as of today (in fiatmoney).

You might have bought at the recent $19666 top, not sure what you can expect in five years from now. However, if you bought the top, hodling might be an appropriate strategy. If you're a moderate gambler, cost averaging on the 'way down' could be your strategy. Want to feed the whales? Just sell. If you want your kids to laugh at you in five years, buy shitcoins...

[gembitz]

...
But when did whales enter crypto market?
...

Well, if I remember correctly, this term became popular during the peaks from 2013 ($266 and $1242), Mt.Gox, Willy, the Bearwhale and stuff... If someone bought at the 2013 top, he/she/it 'made' ~ 400% as of today (in fiatmoney).

You might have bought at the recent $19666 top, not sure what you can expect in five years from now. However, if you bought the top, hodling might be an appropriate strategy. If you're a moderate gambler, cost averaging on the 'way down' could be your strategy. Want to feed the whales? Just sell. If you want your kids to laugh at you in five years, buy shitcoins...

i just noticed ... time to sell $5800 now weeee

[LFC_Bitcoin]

...
But when did whales enter crypto market?
...

Well, if I remember correctly, this term became popular during the peaks from 2013 ($266 and $1242), Mt.Gox, Willy, the Bearwhale and stuff... If someone bought at the 2013 top, he/she/it 'made' ~ 400% as of today (in fiatmoney).

You might have bought at the recent $19666 top, not sure what you can expect in five years from now. However, if you bought the top, hodling might be an appropriate strategy. If you're a moderate gambler, cost averaging on the 'way down' could be your strategy. Want to feed the whales? Just sell. If you want your kids to laugh at you in five years, buy shitcoins...

i just noticed ... time to sell $5800 now weeee

- Your post history is littered with shit posts
- You troll a lot
- You’ve got negative trust
- You regularly post in the shit coin sub
- Welcome to my ignore list

[micgoossens]

well, as a quite newbie (10 months) in crypto, i have to admit that im losing faith right now.
I want to be a holder (yes thats how we write this right?) but what worries me is not the ups and downs itself, but the rediculous drops that happened 3 times now... This means that some people actually can control my money.... again... And i dont like it.
Who can garantee that not all bitcoin eventually evaporates?
I mine the shit out of my equipment, and all it does this year is lose value... i cant mine enough to even increase in fiat value. Thats hugely dissapointing...

Everyone has a opinion here in bitcointalk, even some experts out there. It ranges from 2k to 150k dec18. How to take anyting in between serious? I see pretty graphs, all made in a way someone thinks instead of based on facts or knowledge, calculations, etc. Whats the value of it? Zilch...
Take a look back to all those pretty graphs... I bet none came actually true...

crypto? I think ponzi more and more...


Proof me wrong, please....

Here's a bitcoin chart going back to 2010. How many crashes and bear markets have we had already?
Long term, what direction is bitcoin going in?

i can perfectly live with this chart ..... serve it please haha