Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

$btc no man's land... maybe for another week or two.



after seeing this chart .... maybe yes makes sense .     sideways and sideways 

whatever with TA seeing 100's of charts and FUNNYcharts but offcourse ...... 1 will be nailing it

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

[jonoiv]

Bitfinex at 100$ BTC premium What is going on?

Trend setters at bitfinex

[goldkingcoiner]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."

[bitserve]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."

I would surely not come forward if I had win. Would be too busy deciding between a bit less than 1 million after taxes or more than 2 million of "out of the system" money. Probably would have chosen first option in the end, but who knows.

[becoin]

Bitfinex at 100$ BTC premium What is going on?

Tether is trading at $0.98 USD.  It’s a risk premium of dealing with Bitfinex.

Thanks, crazy times ahead maybe?

Actually this premium is quite reasonable. Bitfinex dollars are more valuable than Fed dollars! Bitfinex dollars can be instantly converted into bitcoins in contrast to Fed dollars that must overcome many bank-related obstacles till they're credited to your exchange account.

[bitserve]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

I have done my fair share of CTF's in the past... but I am sure I would have not solved this one even if I had devoted 100% to it from the beginning. Not a chance. Too many factors to "guess" instead of simply "research" in this one.

[goldkingcoiner]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."

I would surely not come forward if I had win. Would be too busy deciding between a bit less than 1 million after taxes or more than 2 million of "out of the system" money. Probably would have chosen first option in the end, but who knows.

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never a 310 btc reward and the guy still has his own bitcoin in a different wallet... The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe. For shits and giggles.

[Wekkel]

An interesting take on the NVT Signal: “How to Value Cryptoassets (Part I)” https://medium.com/whaleblocks/how-to-value-cryptoassets-part-i-49f244962c7d

But somehow it seems off for the current situation (see link in my comment beneath the article).

I’m not sure how they account for transaction batching in the NVT calculation, as the number of transactions is falling due to batching.

Thanks, makes sense. I found some useful info here but it dates from May 2018.

Key paragraph:

3.4 Has transaction count become an unreliable measure of Bitcoin’s usage because of batching?
Yes. We strongly encourage any analysts, investors, journalists, and developers to look past mere transaction count from now on. The default measure of Bitcoin’s performance should be “payments per day” rather than transaction count. This also makes Bitcoin more comparable with other UTXO chains. They generally have significantly variable payments-per-transaction ratios, so just using payments standardizes that. (Stay tuned: Coinmetrics will be rolling out tools to facilitate this very soon.)

More generally, we think that the economic value transmitted on the network is its most fundamental characteristic. Both the naive and the adjusted figures deserve to be considered. Adjusting raw output value is still more art than science, and best practices are still being developed. Again, Coinmetrics is actively developing open-source tools to make these adjustments available.

I lack the knowledge to see whether and if so, how this would impact the NVT Signal.

The questions are whether NVT Signal looks at transaction volume and whether batching would distort that metric (not necessarily but that depends on how NVT is calculated of course). Google is not giving me articles with conclusive direction. Willy Woo seem to confirm that batch transactions do not impact his NVT ratio: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/973708939714965504

I am curious.

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never 310 btc. The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe.

BS, he provided a signed message which everyone can check.  If it was fake, he would have been called out on it immediately.  The only thing you might think is that he sent it back to his own address, but I highly doubt that.

[bitserve]

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never 310 btc. The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe.

BS, he provided a signed message which everyone can check.  If it was fake, he would have been called out on it immediately.  The only thing you might think is that he sent it back to his own address, but I highly doubt that.

There is a fair chance this is a way to check if he can launder some "dark" Bitcoins... That has nothing to do with the fact that he proved he does indeed control the Bitcoins.

We will probably never know for sure. Anyways, it was an entertaining challenge... one that *maybe* created a new millionaire.

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

An interesting take on the NVT Signal: “How to Value Cryptoassets (Part I)” https://medium.com/whaleblocks/how-to-value-cryptoassets-part-i-49f244962c7d

But somehow it seems off for the current situation (see link in my comment beneath the article).

I’m not sure how they account for transaction batching in the NVT calculation, as the number of transactions is falling due to batching.

Thanks, makes sense. I found some useful info here but it dates from May 2018.

Key paragraph:

3.4 Has transaction count become an unreliable measure of Bitcoin’s usage because of batching?
Yes. We strongly encourage any analysts, investors, journalists, and developers to look past mere transaction count from now on. The default measure of Bitcoin’s performance should be “payments per day” rather than transaction count. This also makes Bitcoin more comparable with other UTXO chains. They generally have significantly variable payments-per-transaction ratios, so just using payments standardizes that. (Stay tuned: Coinmetrics will be rolling out tools to facilitate this very soon.)

More generally, we think that the economic value transmitted on the network is its most fundamental characteristic. Both the naive and the adjusted figures deserve to be considered. Adjusting raw output value is still more art than science, and best practices are still being developed. Again, Coinmetrics is actively developing open-source tools to make these adjustments available.

I lack the knowledge to see whether and if so, how this would impact the NVT Signal.

The questions are whether NVT Signal looks at transaction volume and whether batching would distort that metric (not necessarily but that depends on how NVT is calculated of course). Google is not giving me articles with conclusive direction. Willy Woo seem to confirm that batch transactions do not impact his NVT ratio: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/973708939714965504

I am curious.

Just speaking for myself, I use less transactions now than before.  I did use bitcoin for fun little purchases once in a while, but I stopped doing that after the fees skyrocketed. Until LN is in a sufficient mature state, I don't plan to make purchases in bitcoin again, only using it as a store-of-value and speculative instrument.

[bitserve]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."

I would surely not come forward if I had win. Would be too busy deciding between a bit less than 1 million after taxes or more than 2 million of "out of the system" money. Probably would have chosen first option in the end, but who knows.

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never a 310 btc reward and the guy still has his own bitcoin in a different wallet... The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe. For shits and giggles.

It isn't a matter of hodling or not hodling. The moment you receive such a big prize you owe taxes for its actual value. If you don't sell enough to pay taxes and the price drops to $3000.... you owe more than you still have. Funny, uh?

P.S.: That reminds me to when Andreas received that big donation.... I hope he didn't hodl this time. Deep shit otherwise.

[crypto mania]

Bitfinex at 100$ BTC premium What is going on?

Tether is trading at $0.98 USD.  It’s a risk premium of dealing with Bitfinex.

Thanks, crazy times ahead maybe?

Actually this premium is quite reasonable. Bitfinex dollars are more valuable than Fed dollars! Bitfinex dollars can be instantly converted into bitcoins in contrast to Fed dollars that must overcome many bank-related obstacles till they're credited to your exchange account.

So much crazy information about Rippel and their involvement in BTC price manipulations. Problems with audits and not clear story with backed funds make this cryptocurrency a mystery. I am using it from start and I will say that Rippel opens the doors for many people to easily buy and trade BTC and other cryptos. I know for sure that they had a lot of impact on last year bubble.

Lately, with so many pegged coins, I try to split my holdings between few of them to minimalize the risk involved with "all eggs in one basket".

[goldkingcoiner]

The 310BTC challenge has been solved.

P.S.: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nUAhlC_n21ZLZcRAHpLw9G--gpk4NUVIJqVp9F68qp4/preview

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today   .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."

I would surely not come forward if I had win. Would be too busy deciding between a bit less than 1 million after taxes or more than 2 million of "out of the system" money. Probably would have chosen first option in the end, but who knows.

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never a 310 btc reward and the guy still has his own bitcoin in a different wallet... The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe. For shits and giggles.

It isn't a matter of hodling or not hodling. The moment you receive such a big prize you owe taxes for its actual value. If you don't sell enough to pay taxes and the price drops to $3000.... you owe more than you still have. Funny, uh?

P.S.: That reminds me to when Andreas received that big donation.... I hope he didn't hodl this time. Deep shit otherwise.

Thats kind of a shit system, bro. So sell enough for taxes and hodl the rest? Sounds good. In Germany you could later cash out at 100x the value a year later and not be liable for taxes on the profits. I wonder if the initial 310 btc would be taxed as a monetary gift?

Also me:

https://siliconangle.com/2015/10/29/mark-karpeles-spent-missing-bitcoin-from-mt-gox-on-prostitutes/

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

There is a fair chance this is a way to check if he can launder some "dark" Bitcoins... That has nothing to do with the fact that he proved he does indeed control the Bitcoins.

I had not even considered this.  Similar to maffia guys buying up winning lottery tickets, you just say: I won this in a puzzle competition. An interesting concept to consider.

EDIT: Then again, the puzzle was out there, the private key was free to be extracted by all for over a week.  Would you really risk that chance if you are just trying to launder money? 

[kirreev070]

Bad day for crypto? Ohh... Wait

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all

[bitserve]

There is a fair chance this is a way to check if he can launder some "dark" Bitcoins... That has nothing to do with the fact that he proved he does indeed control the Bitcoins.

I had not even considered this.  Similar to maffia guys buying up winning lottery tickets, you just say: I won this in a puzzle competition. An interesting concept to consider.

EDIT: Then again, the puzzle was out there, the private key was free to be extracted by all for over a week.  Would you really risk that chance if you are just trying to launder money?  

Yes, I would. Laundering is assuming losses (mainly coming from taxes and business overhead) in exchange of clean money. Reasonable risk if you ask me.

Not only that, the first few prizes (he says he plan to do more in the future) could even go to real third parties just to see if everything goes smooth.

That said, I have absolutely no reason to think this is the case, just suggested the "possibility.

[StartupAnalyst]

[leetlezee]

The point is market manipulation on a large scale exists behind the scenes that is never covered by the news / brought to light. Not all institutional investors were/are involved in the manipulation and therefore got burned by the crash earlier this year, while naturally, some HODL-ers are on the richlist (it's easier to have lots of Bitcoin if you acquired/mined it when it was cheap), and some retail traders have gotten lucky and hit it big. The point is the average Joe who is trying to get into Bitcoin is essentially robbed of his money by market manipulation he has no idea even exists.

But then again, market manipulation exists in other markets as well... stock, commodity... they just have more regulation, so it's easier to get caught.

Market manipulation does not exist on any large scale. Prove it. If retailers hold they win. Simple as that. If you are trying to day trade the chop, then you’re probably just a bad trader.

Well, you convinced me. I'm so glad I can now believe that people are naturally good and would never try to take advantage of any system for their own gain. I thought that there was, you know, pump and dump groups that used large sums of money to manipulate the market for their own profit, but I'm so glad you pointed out that error. It must just have been natural market forces resulting in unusual spikes in the price.

And of course I'm so glad I'm wrong that there are no rich people or rich groups that are manipulating the cryptocurrency market on a large scale for their own profit. I mean, geez, I even thought Jamie Dimon was a straight-up liar, but I must just really be misunderstanding everything he said while J.P. Morgan & Chase was doing the opposite.

Thank you for straightening me out.