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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26400748 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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October 04, 2018, 08:04:10 AM
Last edit: October 04, 2018, 08:29:55 AM by Last of the V8s

https://twitter.com/bitfinex/status/1047758525655666688
@bitfinex
3m3 minutes ago

Planned infrastructure maintenance will commence 30 minutes from now, at 8.30 UTC, and is expected to last 2 hours.

Please monitor Twitter and http://bitfinex.statuspage.io  for precise updates.


edit/add
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7m7 minutes ago

John Carvalho Retweeted Bitfinex

Commence fuckery!
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October 04, 2018, 09:09:41 AM

Finex has been climbing higher than Stamp for a couple of weeks.  Reminds me of Gox - people buying BTC to get out.

It's a $50 dollar gap now..
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October 04, 2018, 09:23:24 AM

Finex has been climbing higher than Stamp for a couple of weeks.  Reminds me of Gox - people buying BTC to get out.

It's a $50 dollar gap now..

Except that is a less than 1% gap.... IIRC gox gap was around 10 to 20% or so.

But yes, even that small gap is something pretty unusual lately.
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October 04, 2018, 09:35:48 AM

A gap opens every time there is Tether FUD.
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October 04, 2018, 09:40:20 AM

There is almost no scenario in which the price would go straight up, for example to a new ATH within a day or even within a week.  I'm not even sure whether an ETF approval would cause that, or some kind of news that some country has made bitcoin it's official currency.  Perhaps, but I have real doubts about such sudden exponential movement without any correction.

On the other hand, it is not likely, but we could get 100% or 200% within a week.. or we could get a kind of gradual UP and then, BAM, a sudden 100% to 200% UP within a week.  Is that what you mean by one of these days, moon?

Is moon past the previous ATH or is it some other number?

Where is "moon" exactly?


if ((amount of btc * btc price) > target net worth) then MOON

O.k.  Fair enough that moon is a number that would be somewhat individually tailored  - and sometimes, members might need to disclose where that point is for themselves, and sometimes just thinking about "where is moon" can be a psychological well-being point.

Part of the reason that I frequently express so much content, even though we are still bouncing around in a 66.6666% correction arena, is that I had considered $3k to $5k to have been the top of the 2017-2018-ish bubble - meaning the next bubble that was coming after the 2013 ATH of $1,163.  Accordingly, thereafter I had expected the top to have been in the $3-$5k range and then a correction into the $1k to $3k range.  Therefore, it seems to me that there is still a lot of icing on this particular cake, and it kind of already seems, to me, that a variation of moon has already arrived.

All of what I am saying does not mean that I am bearish or that there is froth  in this market, but a peak that goes to $19,666 remains in the approximately 5x area higher than expected and the correction back to $6k-ish remains in an area of about 5x higher than expected - and even with all of that 5x higher than expected, there seems to be plenty of upside potential, still.... because bitcoin continues to be in a very low adoption level - even with a lot of peeps coming into bitcoin, the numbers still remain trickles in comparison to the world population and in comparison to what is possible based on the ongoing good news in bitcoin, in terms of developments and the seeming solidity of the tech (and computing power for that matter - including bitcoin's continued winning of various infighting).

Sure there remains a question about whether alts are coming with on the next journey up, and so that could be the $1,000,000 question about how long any kind of continued correction goes on further or just drags out longer.... let's see, let's see... So even if we are at a kind of moon..., "When next moon?" might be more poignant of a question, perhaps?

As much as I want it to be different, a new moon will take a lot of time to materialise. The grind up to 20k will be long and hard, with tons of resistance levels established by previous run-up. Once we pass 20k, price discovery starts again and we are in uncharted waters.
Right JJG, I share your sentiment about btc adoption and also did not expect previous top to be this much of an overshoot. I'd caution everyone to be rather conservative in setting any sort of timeline for a next run, my experience has learned me this is always further away than one expects, especially after such a massive year for crypto that we had.
Still BTC and perhaps some other alts are terrific buys at this level from a long term perspective thats why I am hodling and accumulating, just as all you smart and fine gents in this thread  Smiley

Whoaza!!!!!  I consider myself to be fairly conservative in terms of both my BTC predictions and my expectations, but in some respects, your above post is coming off as a tad bit more bearish than me, at least in terms of BTC's shorter term dynamics, what is at play in the short term, and the timeline for any possible explosive UPWARDS movements.

Let me attempt to explain, and attempt to clarify which might seem to be internal contradictory comments from me.  I would also like to modify some of my retrospective views (somewhat based on hindsight is 20/20 rather than being caught within the moment in which thinking/vision is more muddied).  In other words, I am kind of modifying my statement of what my then (2017) expectations were to have likely been a bit more bullish than what I have subsequently characterized them to be.

First, certainly, I am asserting that BTC's about mid-November 2017 to mid-December 2017, BTC's price performance was much beyond the greatest of expectations that I had, and even though I had anticipated the most reasonable upside to be in the $3k to $5k price territory, I was willing to accept that prices could spike up to $8k or so.  Accordingly, in mid-November, when BTC prices went above and beyond $8k, we seemed to have gotten into a kind of "beyond the wildest dreams" price territory. 

So, yeah, you know (like man), we went about 2.5x beyond $8k, so that was a quite stupendous set of scenarios that seemed to have allowed for that to happen - maybe even an alignment of various happenings, market resolutions and momentum.    Even saying all of that, and based on both BTC fundamentals and the price foundation that allowed BTC to rise over more than 2 years in order to be ready for the exponential upwards price run, I am still of an ongoing tentative conclusion that $19,666 was not sufficient to constitute a blow off top.   Therefore, I remain tentatively unconvinced that this current price run up can be categorized as "over" or that the now more than 9 month price correction and even largely bouncing back and forth in the sub $10k price territory and even in the lower $6k arena, constitutes anything more than an extremely long and large BTC price correction in the midst of an upwards price run.

In other words, after having said all of that, I am not of the conclusion that we can have any kind of confidence that either BTC prices are going down from here or that the road past $20k is going to be a long and drawn out battle.  Sure it seems feasible to shake out a few more hands, if that is possible, and I have no doubt that BIG players will attempt to shake, if they can, and if that seems to be the path of least resistance. 

So, chartalists and fractalists and other folks attempting to overlay 2014/15 patterns over bitcoin or some other similarly bearish pattern in order to suggest that from our current position they can see either what has to happen or what is more probable to happen being either down or a drawn out flat BTC price period, are likely going down a road too far in their assertion of what has to happen or what they consider to be most likely, from my humble bumble perspective.

JJG, I am obviously hoping for a scenario a bit more like 2013, with an april top followed by new ath later in the year. I doubt this will happen in the short term, invalidating that pattern. In any case, dont think looking at the past is too relevant here. I dont really agree with your wording of ‘correction’, its ok to say btc has crashed since ath, a 70% drop is just that, a crash. Especially since it is accompanied by the  complete bloodbath that is the alt-markets.
One scenario where bitcoin could go lower (and take alts with them) is if miners make a play to push price down to bankrupt less efficient miners, allowing them higher market share in the future as inefficient mining ventures go broke.
Still, I hope 6k is the bottom (but then we saw the bottom 6 months ago, only 3 months after ath! 🤔 )
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October 04, 2018, 09:47:11 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), El duderino_ (1)



JJG, I am obviously hoping for a scenario a bit more like 2013, with an april top followed by new ath later in the year. I doubt this will happen in the short term, invalidating that pattern. In any case, dont think looking at the past is too relevant here. I dont really agree with your wording of ‘correction’, its ok to say btc has crashed since ath, a 70% drop is just that, a crash. Especially since it is accompanied by the  complete bloodbath that is the alt-markets.
One scenario where bitcoin could go lower (and take alts with them) is if miners make a play to push price down to bankrupt less efficient miners, allowing them higher market share in the future as inefficient mining ventures go broke.
Still, I hope 6k is the bottom (but then we saw the bottom 6 months ago, only 3 months after ath! 🤔 )

Who are you and what have you done to our friend??

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October 04, 2018, 10:01:14 AM



JJG, I am obviously hoping for a scenario a bit more like 2013, with an april top followed by new ath later in the year. I doubt this will happen in the short term, invalidating that pattern. In any case, dont think looking at the past is too relevant here. I dont really agree with your wording of ‘correction’, its ok to say btc has crashed since ath, a 70% drop is just that, a crash. Especially since it is accompanied by the  complete bloodbath that is the alt-markets.
One scenario where bitcoin could go lower (and take alts with them) is if miners make a play to push price down to bankrupt less efficient miners, allowing them higher market share in the future as inefficient mining ventures go broke.
Still, I hope 6k is the bottom (but then we saw the bottom 6 months ago, only 3 months after ath!  )

Who are you and what have you done to our friend??

haha lol, no this is my best coiner friend (BECAUSE OF HIM I AM INTO BTC) helping me out from time to time.... little bit the guy that i'm following mostly and the friend i talk with about crypto about every day, and sometimes when i wanna say something its easy to explain myself better in english writing when he helps me out , i have a serious side as well  Grin , now his a little bit on my side when i wanna say something that requires better english ( otherwise i would make to much mistakes ) BUT i promise i am learning better and better so in the near/foreseeable future i will MASTER english writing myself haha LOL

and is it so obvious i got a little help in my writings Huh  Tongue  Roll Eyes           
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October 04, 2018, 10:03:14 AM

^^

good to know i have friends down here  Wink
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October 04, 2018, 10:18:53 AM

leaving home .... first time back online poker short deck, after a few weeks ....

hoping to increase BTC stashes to day ( BTC game with 3 other coiners)

let me BUY/WIN a DIP today ..... for sure no alcohols for this boy today  Roll Eyes   

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October 04, 2018, 10:29:34 AM
Last edit: October 04, 2018, 10:57:17 AM by bitserve



JJG, I am obviously hoping for a scenario a bit more like 2013, with an april top followed by new ath later in the year. I doubt this will happen in the short term, invalidating that pattern. In any case, dont think looking at the past is too relevant here. I dont really agree with your wording of ‘correction’, its ok to say btc has crashed since ath, a 70% drop is just that, a crash. Especially since it is accompanied by the  complete bloodbath that is the alt-markets.
One scenario where bitcoin could go lower (and take alts with them) is if miners make a play to push price down to bankrupt less efficient miners, allowing them higher market share in the future as inefficient mining ventures go broke.
Still, I hope 6k is the bottom (but then we saw the bottom 6 months ago, only 3 months after ath!  )

Who are you and what have you done to our friend??

haha lol, no this is my best coiner friend (BECAUSE OF HIM I AM INTO BTC) helping me out from time to time.... little bit the guy that i'm following mostly and the friend i talk with about crypto about every day, and sometimes when i wanna say something its easy to explain myself better in english writing when he helps me out , i have a serious side as well  Grin , now his a little bit on my side when i wanna say something that requires better english ( otherwise i would make to much mistakes ) BUT i promise i am learning better and better so in the near/foreseeable future i will MASTER english writing myself haha LOL

and is it so obvious i got a little help in my writings Huh  Tongue  Roll Eyes            

Say hi to your friend!

It's kind of obvious... but not just because of the better english and punctuation/capitalisation but because he seems to have a (perfectly reasonable) more conservative approach regarding to price. You are usually (way) more bullish and you know it Smiley

Your english is clearly improving every day, you could just check your first few posts on this forum and it is evident. By the time we reach $100K you would have probably mastered it.

P.S.: And good luck on your game. Rekt them all and come back home with a nice stash!


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October 04, 2018, 10:32:31 AM



https://blog.circle.com/2018/10/03/poloniex-to-remove-margin-and-lending-products-for-us-based-customers/
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October 04, 2018, 10:57:03 AM

Nice pump. If the sheep follow up, we may make it to $6,700. But it all looks very tired now.

I would not call this a pump in any sense of the word. The candle is being pushed back and unless the 6620 is cracked, we are probably going to dump in the next 12 hour outbreak. Bollinger bands are tight as anything but all indicators are weak.
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October 04, 2018, 11:06:50 AM
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lockheed-clinches-632m-fms-deal-152003650.html



We kill suspects whose names we know, and whose names we don’t; we kill the guilty and the not guilty; we kill men, but also women and children; we kill by day and by night; we fire missiles at confirmed visual targets, but also at cellphone numbers we hope belong to targets.
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October 04, 2018, 11:11:35 AM



JJG, I am obviously hoping for a scenario a bit more like 2013, with an april top followed by new ath later in the year. I doubt this will happen in the short term, invalidating that pattern. In any case, dont think looking at the past is too relevant here. I dont really agree with your wording of ‘correction’, its ok to say btc has crashed since ath, a 70% drop is just that, a crash. Especially since it is accompanied by the  complete bloodbath that is the alt-markets.
One scenario where bitcoin could go lower (and take alts with them) is if miners make a play to push price down to bankrupt less efficient miners, allowing them higher market share in the future as inefficient mining ventures go broke.
Still, I hope 6k is the bottom (but then we saw the bottom 6 months ago, only 3 months after ath!  )

Who are you and what have you done to our friend??

haha lol, no this is my best coiner friend (BECAUSE OF HIM I AM INTO BTC) helping me out from time to time.... little bit the guy that i'm following mostly and the friend i talk with about crypto about every day, and sometimes when i wanna say something its easy to explain myself better in english writing when he helps me out , i have a serious side as well  Grin , now his a little bit on my side when i wanna say something that requires better english ( otherwise i would make to much mistakes ) BUT i promise i am learning better and better so in the near/foreseeable future i will MASTER english writing myself haha LOL

and is it so obvious i got a little help in my writings Huh  Tongue  Roll Eyes            

Say hi to your friend!

It's kind of obvious... but not just because of the better english and punctuation/capitalisation but because he seems to have a (perfectly reasonable) more conservative approach regarding to price. You are usually (way) more bullish and you know it Smiley

Your english is clearly improving every day, you could just check your first few posts on this forum and it is evident. By the time we reach $100K you would have probably mastered it.

P.S.: And good luck on your game. Rekt them all and come back home with a nice stash!




Gonna try coming home filled up .... but its a hard game, my friend that helps me out plays as well .....

And yes he’s long term SUPERBULL , but always trying to keep me calm, especially short-midterm.... kinda hate him for that  Roll Eyes
When we where in december @ 8-10k-ish, he warned me like be prepared, a two year bear market could easily be in play..... so i am prepared for however it plays out .....
But cannot help myself of thinking bullish all the time ,its just in my nature i guess.
Also just have much to thank because of this guy, before BTC i had absolute like 0 knowledge of computer and shit, this forum .... he showed me a link directly to this thread ( i thought BTC-talk was only this thread for a very long time ) LOL , know its all getting better and better but like man , the first picture etc that i posted where like days of research haha.... also got much help from around here THX for that, but what i did good from the start was when i was introduced to BTC .... i embraced it 100% and was learning all the time ....
probably forgetting much but yeah post is getting long as we speak.  Roll Eyes
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October 04, 2018, 12:00:00 PM




security and stability is for wimps

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October 04, 2018, 12:00:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

On the whole my memory is terrible regarding specific dates & what the bitcoin price was at that time. I just looked on Stamp though to remind myself & between Jan 2015 & late October 2015 we were stuck going sideways in the $200 range (briefly dipping below $200 & briefly touching $300).

Basically I was looking for an idea of how long we could go sideways.

I wonder is the $6000 range similar before we start to move significantly upwards?


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October 04, 2018, 12:03:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), dbshck (1), BobLawblaw (1), Last of the V8s (1), Dunkelheit667 (1)

3x per year line:



2015: stuck at 35 for too long...

2018: stuck at 38 for too long...
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October 04, 2018, 01:39:35 PM

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October 04, 2018, 02:11:58 PM

3x per year line:



2015: stuck at 35 for too long...

2018: stuck at 38 for too long...
I believe!!
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October 04, 2018, 02:12:41 PM
Merited by itod (1), Raja_MBZ (1)

SegWit reached 53% adoption rate.

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