I don't know how to reply to a multi-quote reply without messing all quotes.... so I will do it like this:
Just take the end quote and put it above where you are typing and the header quote and put it at the bottom of where you are planning to type... so in this particular response, I just cut and paste this:
>>>>>>>>end quote with beginning and ending brackets>>>>
/quote]
[type your response here]
quote author=bitserve link=topic=178336.msg46372330#msg46372330 date=1538348805]
<<<< header quote with beginning and ending brackets<<<<<
and then I type response in between the end quote and beginning quote.
1) As I said, I don't expect neither those lows nor those highs in that timeframe. But I say I would obviously accept it because were it happened that would mean a price higher than $100K in 2020/21.
you seem to be going along with the expectation that the price has to go down before it is able to go up, and that dynamic is an unknown. Furthermore, some of the additional down can cause the price to stay down longer and not to go up as high, so it is NOT fair to assume that the only way that the price can go up or go up BIG is to have more downward correction.
If you don't, maybe your expectations (even if possible) are a bit too optimistic.
I don't recall saying anything about my expectations, and it seems to me that I have largely been criticizing various assumptions that say that either more down is inevitable or that in order to get higher UPs then we have to go down first.
Personally, I don't have any problem with going up because I profit from such UP, but I do not assume UP. I prepare for either direction, and any assumption (or hope) that I have about UP remains that at whatever price I am buying my bitcoins today, then 5 to 10 years down the road, I will be able to sell them higher... and I feel more confident about that now because I already have a decently large stack of bitcoins that I bought in the 3 digits, so the assumption of up seems to be that I will be able to sell those coins for higher than I bought them for and that is why I had invested in bitcoin and continue investing in bitcoin.
2) About the "taming" thing... I do agree that adoption is probably below 1% currently. But as the price gets higher it is probable that the whales that currently hold $billions in BTC would gradually start selling to those new adopters/investors. That would mean that the currently small float would enlarge thus somewhat absorbing the new demand without the need of an otherwise ridiculously pump into the millions per BTC. At which price offer and demand would find equilibrium is the million dollar question, but as time passes it should naturally and gradually happen.
We both agree that the higher the market cap, the more difficult it is for anyone to push the BTC price around because they will need more capital to accomplish the ability to push the price around. A similar thing remains true with the longer that bitcoin is around, the more difficult to push the price around, too because there develop more liquidation avenues even while some folks are completely removing their bitcoin from the system, even though the liquidation avenues will still exist but have to trade with a lower level of coins (assuming that fractional reserves are not happening too much).
Sure, there are some more tools that are available for manipulators, including futures, but I doubt that gives them any meaningful abilities to manipulate bitcoin in the short term since these financialization tools still remain so immature that there is fear about getting burnt, and the tools create a decent amount of demand to hedge by carrying some bitcoin.. so you have to buy some bitcoin before you can sell it, and if the tools allow you to accomplish that with dollars, there is a considerable amount of risk if the BTC price market moves against you while you are attempting to push it down with dollars (and bitcoins that you don't really have).
3) Please don't confuse being "poor" with being poor. It's not the same and I don't want to offend really poor persons. Yes, I have had very decent (unrealised) profits. I can't honestly complaint. But, if that decent profits will one day mean being sufficiently or barely rich is something that I can't control (beyond holding). I can dream BTC will reach $100K in a few years but that won't make nor help it happen. The contrary is equally true.
I agree that being rich "on paper" may cause a certain amount of perception of poorness if you are saving those BTC assets for the long term and not willing to liquidate them at current prices, even if they are in profits because you expect the BTC price to go up in the coming years (whether that is 3 years or longer, perhaps willing to wait up to 10 years? Perhaps?).
So whatever happens, we will know in the next few years.
Surely there are interesting developments, and overall a lot of us retain decently bullish feelings about the coming years, and I believe for good reasons.
It still remains possible that we could experience a 3-5 year downward and flat price period from here, but it also seems to me that the odds are pretty decent that BTC prices will be decently up in the coming years. I don't that it is safe to expect to have $100k coins in that period of time, even though many of us know that such price possibilities are reasonably within the realm of decently good odds.
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