You really are a dick sometimes.
Surprised you haven't Ignored him yet, TBH.
Makes this thread much more "sane".
I did for a while, but wanted to give him a chance. But even though I like hopium, his unrealistic one sidedness is old. Re ignored...
"one sidedness" Get off of it.
You conclude that you have a more objective and presumably "enlightened" perspectives? or that you have some kind of charitable attempt at understanding various perspectives, but apparently you are lacking yourself with a bit of tolerance or ability to control your own emotions.
In other words:
I think you've got the right idea long-term, and at least some (I don't track all) reasonable price guesses/predictions. But in one of your post you stated that we weren't in a bear market, which from a technical aspect has been wrong for more than half a year now.
Our definitions about what is or is not "technically" a bear market differs.
If you want to define the market based a starting point of the last several months and seeing that the price is going down, then sure that could constitute a bear market - or it could also constitute a correction from a stupendous price rise that started from last year.
You can assert all that you want about 90% of technical experts measure whether in a bear or bull market based on the past quarter or the past two quarters blah blah blah in order to supposedly "objectively" describe what kind of market we are in (whether bear or bull).
I think that it is more appropriate to zoom out a bit in order to attempt to figure out the degree of the correction, and what is actually going on.. . I have also described the reason(s) for my assertions on several occasions, and frequently asserted that posters are being too presumptuous to be asserting that we are in a "bear market" even though technically there are ways to describe the market in that "bear market" way... .So anyhow, I stand by my assertion that at this time, it still seems to be more accurate to conceive the market in terms of correction and in terms of ongoing consolidation rather than asserting that we are in a "bear market", which I already asserted merely assumes that bears are in control and that there is a presumption of a better chance prices will go down rather than up, which so far does not seem to be the case and seems to be too much of a presumption, in my humble bumble opinion, which I have a right to assert and to argue until I am blue in the face about it.. without presuming that my framework and thinking is bull biased (and presumptively overly based on hopium rather than really attempting to make a meaningful and objective assessment, just as you are suggesting that you are doing through your assertions about what is supposedly a "technically correct" assessment).
It just so happens that market cycles in crypto are like those of stocks on crack in the sense that the time scale gets shrunk.
Perhaps that stock comparison could serve as a partial explanation, and also there are ways to consider bitcoin as a possible asset class that has never been experienced before, and the "on crack" analogy does not quite fit.
Yeah of course, you can consider bitcoin in terms of various other traditional market movements and the wisdom of the crowds and the technical experts who have studied these various kinds of stocks for years and years and years, and perhaps that is going work until it doesn't.
And while you could argue that we were in correction territory around 10~15k, we've most certainly been in bear territory at least until very recently where you could argue a flat market (past 2-3 months).
Maybe? But you can also recognize that the price growth in bitcoin, which also might be considered a bear market, took two years to explode from $250 in late 2015, but the most explosive growth of that was from about $5k to $19,666 in about 2 months, so the correction back down from $19,666 to $5,774 was also about two months (in early February), and so therefore, there has just been a consolidation battle ever since early February that has largely been taking place in the supra $6k arena.
So there are a variety of ways to frame the matter that can evolve over time, and none of us will be able to see it, exactly while we are in the middle of it, even though each of us will likely come to different presumptions (and some presumptions will end up being more correct than others, and so fucking what if your presumption ends up being more correct, it did not indicate that you actually knew what was going to happen, just because your presumption ended up coming out correct).
The oscillations have been getting much thinner though, so I wouldn't be surprised if we were going to break out either before Christmas, or sometime around Spring. Unlike some others, I find it highly unlikely that we'll bear all the way to 2020ish.
Seems that we are in agreement about the narrowing oscillations perspective and the possibility that an upwards break out could happen a lot sooner than what is otherwise expected.... yet at the same time, I personally am not presuming the breakout to be upwards... believe it or not, even though I continue to accumulate bitcoin, so I would prefer an upwards breakout rather than a downwards breakout, but my preference does not cause me to presume that the next break out is going to be up - even though perhaps I might assign 55% odds to up and 45% odds to down, I hardly ever assign high odds to my inclinations about not really knowing the next direction of the market (rather than attempting to prepare financially and psychologically for either direction).
I'm not sure if you're the overly optimistic perma-bull that some seem to make you out to be (since I haven't tracked this thread enough to say anything) or if you're just using clumsy terms to describe the situation.
Likely you are making an over assessment about me, then because frequently I am not just calling up or making outlandish BTC price predictions. My tendency is to criticize members who attempt to assign high probabilities to their predictions, and I tend to be more critical of bears and down callers because those folks seem to be either full of shit more often or shill/trolls.
Regarding being a "perma-bull," I would think that most guys (and gal) who invest into bitcoin and genuinely attempt to learn about it on an ongoing basis, while participating in this thread is going to tend towards bullish in their thinking about bitcoin - because on an ongoing basis there are a lot of good things happening in bitcoin, we continue to find out about those great things and the fundamentals of bitcoin remain strong... those kinds of bullish conclusions are likely from being informed about bitcoin rather than being criticized as some kind of delusion of "permanentness." If some other asset or crypto better than bitcoin comes along, then I don't have any problems to diversify into such other asset, yet if we are informed about what makes bitcoin tick, then we realize that there is nothing even close - and that includes looking at various network effects that build over time, so even if some thing better comes along, that thing is going to either have to take bitcoin's network effects (referring to network effects that are outlined by Trace Mayer) or build itself on a similar level to bitcoin, which certainly takes time to evolve these kinds of development and adoptions.
Either way, nothing wrong with bear and sideways markets, just need a different strategy which arguably makes the whole deal more fun.
I never said that there was anything wrong with bear or sideways. I just proclaimed that any conclusion that BTC is currently in a "bear market" seem to be either premature or perhaps hopeful rather than based on actual bitcoin dynamics (especially when you sufficiently zoom to contextualized how we got here which will better show where we are).... hahahahahaha
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