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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25489861 times)
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OutOfMemory
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March 15, 2020, 02:18:15 PM

Local bottom forming, and support strengthening, resistance remaining constant.
Breakout very likely, imho. But also a very good opportunity to counter-trade and dump coins on us.
 Huh what's next  Huh


Getting rejected by the 200 Week MA and volume point of control on the hourly time-frame isn't promising imo, it was looking like a nice breakout for a moment there.

...

I also feel looking at smaller time-frames when the Weekly candle is about to close in 10 hours is somewhat redundant...

Sorry, i wasn't too wise in choice of words and i second your opinion. Not really optimistic.
But on the smaller timeframes: I chose it for visualizing the narrowing spread. Trading activity seems to be quite low, something might be in the air, imho.
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March 15, 2020, 02:22:29 PM

I hear china is trying to blame the US for this virus that leaked out of the chinese shit tier biowarfare lab in wuhan..

If so, then totally fuck them..
Start some shit china bitches.. Go ahead..

I mean.. If we are already going to be in wartime conditions.. Eh..
It is my humble opinion that China must be destroyed. China delenda est. Delenda is now a WORD, spellchecker. Holy shit.

They literally unleashed a global plague upon the world. If this doesn't at the very least result in some very severe economic sanctions, the world is truly beyond fucked.

In these... sensitive times... more confrontation is the least we need.
Just look back at history an learn what offensive politics brought to us so far.
What's happening is all to similar to what happened just before ww2.
The ordinary people are to pay the bill for any mess that is started or fueled.
You can't be saying that you want this, or do you?
I want accountability. Bad enough that we have been propping up a communist country for decades, but now they are trying to blame us for the global disaster they caused. Fuck that. China must be destroyed.
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March 15, 2020, 02:33:18 PM

Breakfast buffet at the hotel i'm staying at has been shut down due to Covid-19 fears.  What the hell am I gonna do without my morning toast and coffee?!  Okay guys, it's time to PANIC!





wait. no coffee.

not sure that even has meaning, i cant really get my head around it.

coffee is so essential the furthest i can move before i need a cup of coffee, especially the 1st one, is about 100 feet. maybe. and i need to rest and have a smoke 1/2 way there.

this is bad.

 I only had to walk across the parking lot to get myself a double espresso this morning and on the way back, a hotel employee wearing gloves wished me a good morning and handed me some paper bags each containing a 200ml bottle of water, an apple and a blueberry muffin.  Life is good.  We have lots of food with us, but we wont have to tuck into it just yet.  
 There are very few cases of the virus where I am presently but I see the numbers have quadrupled near our home. Without being too specific, there are nearly 25X the number cases near our home compared to my present location and we don't have to be anywhere specific for over a week yet.
 
 I quit smoking many years ago but I remember how well that cigarette used to go with my morning coffee.  Opening a fresh pack of smokes and inhaling that lovely scent of cured tobacco was a treat - it was ritualistic.  It was very difficult when I first quit to have that cup of coffee in the morning without my cigarette even long after the desire for cigarettes themselves had subsided.   Cry

 

^cannabis obviously kills wuhanvirus :-D #trustme
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March 15, 2020, 02:37:02 PM

I hear china is trying to blame the US for this virus that leaked out of the chinese shit tier biowarfare lab in wuhan..

If so, then totally fuck them..
Start some shit china bitches.. Go ahead..

I mean.. If we are already going to be in wartime conditions.. Eh..
It is my humble opinion that China must be destroyed. China delenda est. Delenda is now a WORD, spellchecker. Holy shit.

They literally unleashed a global plague upon the world. If this doesn't at the very least result in some very severe economic sanctions, the world is truly beyond fucked.

In these... sensitive times... more confrontation is the least we need.
Just look back at history an learn what offensive politics brought to us so far.
What's happening is all to similar to what happened just before ww2.
The ordinary people are to pay the bill for any mess that is started or fueled.
You can't be saying that you want this, or do you?
I want accountability. Bad enough that we have been propping up a communist country for decades, but now they are trying to blame us for the global disaster they caused. Fuck that. China must be destroyed.

Your opinion. Freedom of speech, so i won't comment that last sentence of yours.
Do you have a source for the blaming or have i missed it?

Apart from that, if you destroy china, you kill millions of civil people. If, and only if, then only the (few) responsible people should be "destroyed".
Think twice.
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March 15, 2020, 02:40:47 PM


There is a science called "complex system theory".
The basic outline: If you respond to complex problems (like an exponentially spreading virus outbreak) with a simple solution, it is inevitable to fail.
There are many, many examples in history.

EDIT: And Boris is as simple as simple can be.


Is it a complex problem though? Or is it pretty simple - a virus is spreading which needs to be contained. Time will tell whether "flattening the curve" was the correct approach.

Agreed - Boris is an ass-hat.  However, for once he's actually deferring these decisions to medical professionals.

There is a valid point of criticism on most decision makers at the time. They listen a lot to medical pros and virologists, but epidemiologists and economists are seen sparingly. These would be more important. So Boris leaves it up to fate. Well, good luck! The brits will need it.

A pandemic is indeed of complex nature, in all its details. It's defined by "uncontrolled" spread, world wide. So you can't contain it, just slow it down.


Admitting that it can't be contained and focussing on slowing it down so that the country's health service doesn't get overwhelmed is exactly what current British policy is attempting to do.  Trying to smooth the curve.  You seem to arguing against yourself here.

And no, I'm not defending BoJo. He's a fkn disaster for UK but at least he's not making unilateral decisions without any consultation.

We won't know for a while which countries over-reacted and which under-reacted. In the meantime, I have plenty of tea, crumpets and a stiff upper lip. Should suffice. Isolationism is in the British genes.
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March 15, 2020, 02:42:42 PM

Spain enters official nationwide lockdown.

So does France from midnight.

Looks like everyone is starting to take this shit seriously. Except maybe UK... I donno if it is because they are doing good or ignoring the problem.

The UK is adopting a different strategy than the potentially knee-jerk reactions of others. Slightly simplistic use of props here but the message is accurate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzCi8

It may be that only the UK is approaching this rationally. Time will tell.
That would be a great idea if you were playing a computer game where you can control everything people do, and kill anyone who does something unexpected.

It is not possible to control how fast this virus spreads. The only correct choice is to slow it as much as possible while cranking the medical system as high as possible.
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March 15, 2020, 02:53:22 PM


It is not possible to control how fast this virus spreads. The only correct choice is to slow it as much as possible while cranking the medical system as high as possible.

Um, right. C'mon dude, think before you type.
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March 15, 2020, 02:54:55 PM

I hear china is trying to blame the US for this virus that leaked out of the chinese shit tier biowarfare lab in wuhan..

If so, then totally fuck them..
Start some shit china bitches.. Go ahead..

I mean.. If we are already going to be in wartime conditions.. Eh..
It is my humble opinion that China must be destroyed. China delenda est. Delenda is now a WORD, spellchecker. Holy shit.

They literally unleashed a global plague upon the world. If this doesn't at the very least result in some very severe economic sanctions, the world is truly beyond fucked.

In these... sensitive times... more confrontation is the least we need.
Just look back at history an learn what offensive politics brought to us so far.
What's happening is all to similar to what happened just before ww2.
The ordinary people are to pay the bill for any mess that is started or fueled.
You can't be saying that you want this, or do you?
I want accountability. Bad enough that we have been propping up a communist country for decades, but now they are trying to blame us for the global disaster they caused. Fuck that. China must be destroyed.

Your opinion. Freedom of speech, so i won't comment that last sentence of yours.
Do you have a source for the blaming or have i missed it?

Apart from that, if you destroy china, you kill millions of civil people. If, and only if, then only the (few) responsible people should be "destroyed".
Think twice.
Any country has the leadership they choose. Power is not taken, it is given.
OutOfMemory
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March 15, 2020, 03:01:50 PM


There is a science called "complex system theory".
The basic outline: If you respond to complex problems (like an exponentially spreading virus outbreak) with a simple solution, it is inevitable to fail.
There are many, many examples in history.

EDIT: And Boris is as simple as simple can be.


Is it a complex problem though? Or is it pretty simple - a virus is spreading which needs to be contained. Time will tell whether "flattening the curve" was the correct approach.

Agreed - Boris is an ass-hat.  However, for once he's actually deferring these decisions to medical professionals.

There is a valid point of criticism on most decision makers at the time. They listen a lot to medical pros and virologists, but epidemiologists and economists are seen sparingly. These would be more important. So Boris leaves it up to fate. Well, good luck! The brits will need it.

A pandemic is indeed of complex nature, in all its details. It's defined by "uncontrolled" spread, world wide. So you can't contain it, just slow it down.


Admitting that it can't be contained and focussing on slowing it down so that the country's health service doesn't get overwhelmed is exactly what current British policy is attempting to do.  Trying to smooth the curve.  You seem to arguing against yourself here.

And no, I'm not defending BoJo. He's a fkn disaster for UK but at least he's not making unilateral decisions without any consultation.

We won't know for a while which countries over-reacted and which under-reacted. In the meantime, I have plenty of tea, crumpets and a stiff upper lip. Should suffice. Isolationism is in the British genes.

I think i know what you mean by arguing against myself.
But i am not really. There is just a very basic problem to decision making.
Most decisions are based on:
1. trying to achieve something
2. trying to avoid something
Very basic, as i said.
When you try to achieve something through actions, you have to closely watch that you don't support developments which finally result in what you tried to avoid. These are many things, most of the time. Good example to this: Trump. He puts actions to achieve MAGA goals, but almost all of them backfire. Why? Because his principles follow method no.1 without respecting method no.2.
That's where economists end epidemiologists would come in handy. The latter can project the spread, while the former are able to evaluate the unwanted outcomes.
Populism goes in the other direction. Assume some more damage.
There is only one thing that is worse than making a decision: Delaying actions and ignoring developments by not making decisions. This is what Italy, Europe and the US did until a week ago. Waiting out. Which will show its fatal consequences soon. The UK is a week or two behind. Optimism did not do anything to solve a problem, ever.


Any country has the leadership they choose. Power is not taken, it is given.

Even in democracy, we can choose our temporary dictatorship. Like a sheep would choose between knife or stunbolt gun.
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March 15, 2020, 03:07:33 PM

America is not showing a great deal of diligence with their airport queues.

https://twitter.com/Danai_data/status/1239167060028129280

People are spending 6 hours or more jammed that close together coming back from Europe which I'm led to believe is bringing the 'foreign virus' over due to not being Winners.

Damn, glad I'm not going anywhere. Guess if they didn't shovel everybody in together, people would be stretched out waiting on the tarmac. Hopefully nobody had a cough.

You bring up a good point though. Trump should just tweet that only losers get coronavirus. That would surely stop it.



Perhaps nobody wants to hear it, but I fear we're not out of the woods yet, folks.

3 days ago Chainalysis said that PlusToken wasn't done dumping their BTC. They "only" have about 30k left to go -- we won't know its over until they tell us so. In that blog post (I think its been posted here already) they go over the correlation between PlusToken BTC hitting exchanges and drops in corn prices, seems to be pretty unmistakeable.

To me, I'm surprised they still have some to go, but I see no reason for Chainalysis to lie about this kind of thing as their business depends on them being right.
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March 15, 2020, 03:10:29 PM

You bring up a good point though. Trump should just tweet that only losers get coronavirus. That would surely stop it.

More Winning here - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
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March 15, 2020, 03:16:22 PM



I think i know what you mean by arguing against myself.
But i am not really. There is just a very basic problem to decision making.
Most decisions are based on:
1. trying to achieve something
2. trying to avoid something
Very basic, as i said.
When you try to achieve something through actions, you have to closely watch that you don't support developments which finally result in what you tried to avoid. These are many things, most of the time. Good example to this: Trump. He puts actions to achieve MAGA goals, but almost all of them backfire. Why? Because his principles follow method no.1 without respecting method no.2.
That's where economists end epidemiologists would come in handy. The latter can project the spread, while the former are able to evaluate the unwanted outcomes.
Populism goes in the other direction. Assume some more damage.
There is only one thing that is worse than making a decision: Delaying actions and ignoring developments by not making decisions. This is what Italy, Europe and the US did until a week ago. Waiting out. Which will show its fatal consequences soon. The UK is a week or two behind. Optimism did not do anything to solve a problem, ever.

I mostly agree with you, except that UK isn't guilty of not making a decision. It has made a definite decision not to impose enforced isolation now, in the hope of avoiding an unmanageable peak further down the line. I'm not saying it's the right decision. But it might be. Nor is UK a week or two behind, they've chosen a different strategy. Of course that may change, and probably will, more due to political pressure and the need to be seen to be doing something, whether it's effective or not. The media love to jump on alleged inaction.
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March 15, 2020, 03:20:38 PM

Spain enters official nationwide lockdown.

So does France from midnight.

Looks like everyone is starting to take this shit seriously. Except maybe UK... I donno if it is because they are doing good or ignoring the problem.

The UK is adopting a different strategy than the potentially knee-jerk reactions of others. Slightly simplistic use of props here but the message is accurate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzCi8

It may be that only the UK is approaching this rationally. Time will tell.
That would be a great idea if you were playing a computer game where you can control everything people do, and kill anyone who does something unexpected.

It is not possible to control how fast this virus spreads. The only correct choice is to slow it as much as possible while cranking the medical system as high as possible.

5g make it stop!! :\ grrr
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March 15, 2020, 03:21:38 PM

You bring up a good point though. Trump should just tweet that only losers get coronavirus. That would surely stop it.

More Winning here - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Exclusive access? That's a completely wrong and risky path Trump is following there. He is completely underestimating the amount of LIFETIME-HATE that would generate in pretty much billions of people (or the survivors from that figure) from the rest of world if he really succeed in that.

If I were Russia and all my population were dying because of that I would just push the self-destruction button and call it a day. And any average Russian people are way more crazy than I am (not to mention their psycopath leaders).

I will just assume it is an out-of-context headline.
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March 15, 2020, 03:23:44 PM

I will just assume it is an out-of-context headline.

Knowing what we know about him and many of the people surrounding him why would you think that?
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March 15, 2020, 03:26:29 PM

You bring up a good point though. Trump should just tweet that only losers get coronavirus. That would surely stop it.

More Winning here - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Damn, he's really putting our money where his mouth is when it comes to following through with his "America First" message.

Exclusive access? That's a completely wrong and risky path Trump is following there. He is completely underestimating the amount of LIFETIME-HATE that would generate in pretty much billions of people (or the survivors from that figure) from the rest of world if he really succeed in that.

Meh, pretty standard for The Donald, and he could live with that. I don't think he's ever really given two shits about what anybody thinks about him. Hence the clown makeup and incessant foreign policy blunders. Its part of his "charm."
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March 15, 2020, 03:28:06 PM


Any country has the leadership they choose. Power is not taken, it is given.

Even in democracy, we can choose our temporary dictatorship. Like a sheep would choose between knife or stunbolt gun.
Or... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMbXvn2RNI
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March 15, 2020, 03:28:31 PM

People will panic, hospitals will break down, their staff will break down too. China, Italy as role models.

You need to understand that China for like a month had no idea what strike them. They did not had any tests. It was flu season and people that got infected were treated like they have flu. A big part of 3000+ Chines that died died so that the rest of the world had Covid tests weeks in advance than they got the first patient. They had time to prepare. China did extremely well! Of course them being second biggest economy helped them tremendously.
OutOfMemory
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March 15, 2020, 03:31:44 PM



I think i know what you mean by arguing against myself.
But i am not really. There is just a very basic problem to decision making.
Most decisions are based on:
1. trying to achieve something
2. trying to avoid something
Very basic, as i said.
When you try to achieve something through actions, you have to closely watch that you don't support developments which finally result in what you tried to avoid. These are many things, most of the time. Good example to this: Trump. He puts actions to achieve MAGA goals, but almost all of them backfire. Why? Because his principles follow method no.1 without respecting method no.2.
That's where economists end epidemiologists would come in handy. The latter can project the spread, while the former are able to evaluate the unwanted outcomes.
Populism goes in the other direction. Assume some more damage.
There is only one thing that is worse than making a decision: Delaying actions and ignoring developments by not making decisions. This is what Italy, Europe and the US did until a week ago. Waiting out. Which will show its fatal consequences soon. The UK is a week or two behind. Optimism did not do anything to solve a problem, ever.

I mostly agree with you, except that UK isn't guilty of not making a decision. It has made a definite decision not to impose enforced isolation now, in the hope of avoiding an unmanageable peak further down the line. I'm not saying it's the right decision. But it might be. Nor is UK a week or two behind, they've chosen a different strategy. Of course that may change, and probably will, more due to political pressure and the need to be seen to be doing something, whether it's effective or not. The media love to jump on alleged inaction.

They way our media presents it, the UK minister of health is waiting out, refusing to cancel events with a lot of people.
By a week behind, i was thinking in numbers/covid-charts compared to Italy over time.
So it seems i fell victim of the media. My wishing well a few posts before was honest, no irony there, btw.
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March 15, 2020, 03:32:55 PM

People will panic, hospitals will break down, their staff will break down too. China, Italy as role models.

You need to understand that China for like a month had no idea what strike them. They did not had any tests. It was flu season and people that got infected were treated like they have flu. A big part of 3000+ Chines that died died so that the rest of the world had Covid tests weeks in advance than they got the first patient. They had time to prepare. China did extremely well! Of course them being second biggest economy helped them tremendously.

Yes, China definitely is the "good" role model of the two. Sorry for not being clear enough.
Taking a break of posting, body and mind are dragging me to sleep.
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