Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

 We're all doing it wrong.
 Population of Italy  ~ 60,480,000
 Deaths attributed to Covid-19  ~ 6,078
 Mortality rate ~ 1.12 per 100,000

 Perhaps we could use a narrower geographic definition by drawing a circle of a certain diameter around with epicenter and estimating the population of that area but I don't have those stats but I'm sure the respective governments do.

Cause-specific mortality rate
The cause-specific mortality rate is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population. The numerator is the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause. The denominator remains the size of the population at the midpoint of the time period. The fraction is usually expressed per 100,000 population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 108,256 deaths were attributed to accidents (unintentional injuries), yielding a cause-specific mortality rate of 37.2 per 100,000 population.

About 1% of the country is infected. They are all going to get infected. Mortality rate 112%!

No dude. We look at the infected population. It's over 40% by official numbers.

We know the official numbers are underestimating the actual number of infected. But then, they are probably underestimating the number of dead too. Gotta work with what we got.

 We will never know the value of "the infected people" because they aren't testing the entire population.  How can we use this variable so loosely?  It doesn't reflect the reality of the situation and makes it seem more grave than it is.

Which incidentally is exactly what we want. This needs to be taken seriously. And in any case, "people who are sick enough to notice" may be a better metric than merely "infected".

[1714133844]

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[1714133844]

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[Arriemoller]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Swedish hospitals are taking height for that, they have rented a shitload of freeze containers to keep the bodies in if the crematories can't keep up.

https://www.friatider.se/karolinska-hyr-containrar-tusen-lik

[Arriemoller]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.

[Ibian]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.

That method is wrong. We have been over this. Repeatedly. For weeks. There is no reason at all to bring it back up.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still over $6k... currently $6310USD/$9140CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Go Bitcoin go.

Johan Cruijff was not a Dutch philosopher. He was a football player and captain.
He did have some very good quotes...

That's like saying Yogi Berra was not an American philosopher.

[Phil_S]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQZdL_uV-GQ
Out-of-work strippers are delivering food through Boober Eats

[Arriemoller]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.

That method is wrong. We have been over this. Repeatedly. For weeks. There is no reason at all to bring it back up.

No, you have been over this, over and over again. Nobody else has agreed with you. Your'e like Don Quijote.

[xhomerx10]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still over $6k... currently $6310USD/$9140CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Go Bitcoin go.

Johan Cruijff was not a Dutch philosopher. He was a football player and captain.
He did have some very good quotes...

That's like saying Yogi Berra was not an American philosopher.

 You can observe a lot by just watching.

[jbreher]

Free if possible.

if it's free...YOU are the product

..or open source. I agree with your general sentiment, but OSS is a bit a different story.

Multiparty collaboration tools require servers to rebroadcast each party's contribution to the other participants. Servers require hardware. Whether running open source or proprietary SW, the HW needs to exist. Who supplies the HW?

Truth be told, each party could multicast to every other party, eliminating the need for a server. But that requires a lot of bandwidth. Each party needs N! times the single link BW. Does not scale well on home networks. Again, pointing out the need for a (centralized) server, for which someone needs to provide.

[OutOfMemory]

Thanks  
Internal dictionary seems corrupted. Will run integrity check asap.

A friend told me (or like the dude says.. I received an e-mail on the topic) that a simple reboot will frequently resolve a lot of those kinds of weird quirks.  (Por supuesto, I would not know this information from actual personal experiences).

Seems more that i "rebooted" too often lately, puts a lot of strain on the drives  
I guess it's time to slow down the cpu clock a little.
Got a lot of vaped weed left from the winter, and fresh milk from the neighbor's cows. With a slice of ginger, all mixed up and heated up slowly to 75° (celsius) should put myself in a nice, cozy, power saving mode. That will do for tonight.
All but one child already sleeping, task scheduler says T minus 1 hour  

[Febo]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

 We're all doing it wrong.
 Population of Italy  ~ 60,480,000
 Deaths attributed to Covid-19  ~ 6,078
 Mortality rate ~ 1.12 per 100,000

 Perhaps we could use a narrower geographic definition by drawing a circle of a certain diameter around with epicenter and estimating the population of that area but I don't have those stats but I'm sure the respective governments do.

Cause-specific mortality rate
The cause-specific mortality rate is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population. The numerator is the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause. The denominator remains the size of the population at the midpoint of the time period. The fraction is usually expressed per 100,000 population. In the United States in 2003, a total of 108,256 deaths were attributed to accidents (unintentional injuries), yielding a cause-specific mortality rate of 37.2 per 100,000 population.

About 1% of the country is infected. They are all going to get infected. Mortality rate 112%!

No dude. We look at the infected population. It's over 40% by official numbers.

We know the official numbers are underestimating the actual number of infected. But then, they are probably underestimating the number of dead too. Gotta work with what we got.

 We will never know the value of "the infected people" because they aren't testing the entire population.  How can we use this variable so loosely?  It doesn't reflect the reality of the situation and makes it seem more grave than it is.

Which incidentally is exactly what we want. This needs to be taken seriously. And in any case, "people who are sick enough to notice" may be a better metric than merely "infected".

Best metric and pretty much most important is hospitalised. Italy right now have 23896 in hospitals right now. Number of infected is around 10 times more then that.

[bitserve]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.

That method is wrong. We have been over this. Repeatedly. For weeks. There is no reason at all to bring it back up.

You can't use that formula in the early stages of a pandemic because cured is a very lagging indicator in this case. Also infected is a completely skewed and unreliable figure at this time. You will be able to use that formula in the future, not yet.

The only figures we can rely on (in some way) are deaths and ICU occupation. And in fact those are the only ones that count at this time.

And the better indicator on how much critical levels we are reaching is ICU occupation. Why? Because once ICU needs exceed current capacity more people die (because of lack of proper treatment) than should die in normal circumstances (ie: making what otherwise would be a 0.5% death rate to as much as a 5%).

This is not a highly deadly virus per se... it is just one that makes most of its harm by completely overwhelming our health system up to the point of making it useless (over maximum capacity) so that more people will die than would die in normal circumstances (or given an unlimited health care capacity).

[jbreher]

https://abc7chicago.com/6038813

Sounds like more plain ol' bullshit made up from whole cloth by SPLC. 

[OutOfMemory]

https://abc7chicago.com/6038813

Sounds like more plain ol' bullshit made up from whole cloth by SPLC. 

You mean the figures in that "Related" section, that looks more like a footnote?
FBI and ABC news not credible? ... idk
I had absolutely no knowledge of SPLC before. I now read they're definitely not friends with the Reps.

[Ibian]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.

That method is wrong. We have been over this. Repeatedly. For weeks. There is no reason at all to bring it back up.

No, you have been over this, over and over again. Nobody else has agreed with you. Your'e like Don Quijote.

It is not a matter of opinion. It is very basic math. It doesn't matter how many or who disagree, if they can't explain why.

[Arriemoller]

https://promarket.org/why-mass-testing-is-crucial-the-us-should-study-the-veneto-model-to-fight-covid-19/

"Vo’ Euganeo a place in the history of medicine is the decision made by the Governor of the Veneto region (which includes Padua, Venice, and Verona) to test all 3,341 inhabitants of the town twice: the first time before closing it off from the rest of Italy and a second time two weeks later.
In this respect, Vo’ Euganeo is similar to the Diamond Princess, the ship quarantined in the port of Yokohama, even in population size (3,711). In both cases, we can observe an entire population exposed to the virus over time, with comprehensive testing.

This is different from all the other cases, where only a fraction of the population is tested and that fraction is likely to be the one showing some symptoms of the disease.

The first piece of good news coming out from both these ‘experiments’ is that more than 50 percent of the documented COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic cases, similar to what researchers found in the Diamond Princess case. 
Once we adjust for this percentage, we have the second piece of good news: in both these samples, the case mortality rate (CMR)—the fraction of cases that die after contracting a disease—is “only” 1 percent (1 percent in Vo’ and 1.1 percent in the Diamond Princess after adjusting for the age distribution)."

[Arriemoller]

Estimating death rate... I think South Korea's numbers are most reliable, since they don't have authoritarian censorship culture, but they DO have LOTS of test kits available.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll/south-korea-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-cases-since-february-29-peak-idUSKBN21A043

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there were 64 new cases on Monday, taking the national tally to 8,961. The death toll rose by one to 110.

110 out of 8,961 is about 1.23%.

Wrong formula. It's death/(death+cured). Which still doesn't look bad, in their case.

Would you just stop it with your home made non sense bullshit formula already.

Ball is in your court. Suggest a better method.

The one everybody but you are using.

That method is wrong. We have been over this. Repeatedly. For weeks. There is no reason at all to bring it back up.

No, you have been over this, over and over again. Nobody else has agreed with you. Your'e like Don Quijote.

It is not a matter of opinion. It is very basic math. It doesn't matter how many or who disagree, if they can't explain why.

Said Don Quijote to Sancho Panza.

[OutOfMemory]

Said Don Quijote to Sancho Panza.

There's a saying in my country:
Don't believe in statistics you didn't fake by yourself.

Seriously, it seems hard to grasp for many that you can't calculate reliable overall figures out of datasets that don't consist of a full infection wave/season/event cycle from start to end. Everything in between are just numbers.

[ChiNgadOr]

I found this old pic, and I had to share as a forecast of the prices at which we will be able to purchase crypto again in a few months from now, when Coronavirus hits hard and economies collapse around the world.

[bitserve]

It is not a matter of opinion. It is very basic math. It doesn't matter how many or who disagree, if they can't explain why.

I did, maybe you just don't want to hear. The problem is not the formula, but you using it wrong.