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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
October - 7 (23.3%)
November - 5 (16.7%)
December - 8 (26.7%)
2022 - 5 (16.7%)
After 2022 - 5 (16.7%)
Total Voters: 30

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25441882 times)
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Arriemoller
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August 01, 2021, 06:09:26 AM

Unfortunately, their guaranteed predictions never come true, so the next narrative is always ready to be released once defending the previous version of The TruthTM has become untenable. That's why all the Independent ThinkersTM switch narratives at the same time - they're ultimately getting them from just a few sources.

At first we were all going to die from the vax - the narrative just fit too well with the classic "depopulation agenda". Once that didn't materialize, they tried the "be afraid of side effects" route. That one wasn't working too well, since it's too easy to realize that side effects (even excluding death) from COVID are orders of magnitude more likely & more severe than from any of the vax.

Now we shifted to "we will die from the vax later" and "infertility" - narratives which are sufficiently long term that they can be milked for a while before they have to be replaced due to actual reality disproving them.

This is the perfect example of what I like to call the "Invisible Dragon" argument. It goes like this:

I have an invisible dragon sitting next to me.
Prove it does not exist.


Any argument made will result in a simple explanation that expands the powers of the invisible dragon. It doesn't displace air because it has no mass. You can't touch it because matter bends around it. And so forth and so on. The root of the problem is the person making the assertion is demanding that other people *disprove* the assertion when the responsibility for proving the assertion is that of the asserter.

The only way to handle this argument is to walk away.

Same thing here: The virus will kill people in a month by the millions. Then a year. Then 10 years. Then "infertility". Always things that can't be tested, can't be proven, and when they do fail you just slip in another argument.

It's a lot like the Millerites in the 1830's. This nutcase bunch attracted thousands by saying the world would end in 1843. When that didn't happen a "mistake" was found and it was 1844. Then it became "soon" and the sect split into the 7th day Adventists (nutcakes) and Jehovah's Witnesses. And they roll along to this day, saying the end of the world will be "soon". After all, try to prove the world "won't" end next week.....

Annoying that people still fall for this crap.

 Did you mean "The vaccine"?

 Never mind all the hyperbole, we were blind-sided by a pandemic (regardless of its origins) and we in the West were pushed towards an new, experimental type of vaccine (which has killed people and likely has unknown, long-term, side-effects) rather than the tried and tested vaccines of our parents (inactivated or live attenuated, whole-virus vaccines which also come in nasal spray format now!) which they pursued in China against covid19.

 People voice their concerns and they have plenty of time to do it since they're locked down in their homes, the media amplifies the most outrageous examples and then anyone with a dissenting opinion gets categorized with the crazies.  This is a tried-and-true method of quelling dissent.

 Why isn't the Chinese vaccine approved for use in the US or the EU when the WHO has approved it?  Why haven't we entertained the Russian version of the vaccine which was the first-to-market and apparently very effective?  Why is the Russian vaccine still not approved for use in the EU, the USA or even by the WHO?  Is this not a global crisis?!  Are we actually following science or are we following politics here?  Even though my own government has decided not to go with the first available vaccine, they tell me that "The best vaccine to take is the one in your arm".  They also didn't follow the recommended dosage - they got 6 doses from each vial rather than the recommended 5 doses, then rather than waiting just 3 weeks between doses, they extended it to 16 weeks before the second shot to get more first doses into people until later when more vaccines arrived, they hastened the schedule but oh wait!  The safe and effective AstraZeneca vaccine is causing blood clotting issues and deaths!  They stopped using it altogether and then since the new shipments of the only two possibilities for approved vaccines left didn't match the number of first shots, they said we could get whichever vaccine we wanted for our second dose.  

 Excuse me, I would like to know if waiting this long between doses and mixing them affects the immunity offered by the vaccine?

 Shut the fuck up you unbelievable lunatic we're following the science!  Don't you know the Delta variant is coming to kill you and everyone you love?  Put your fuckin' mask on and get back in your house before we shoot you.  Fuckin' loser!  Jesus.

 If people could choose between mRNA and a traditional vaccine - maybe even the nasal spray, there would be a lot less noise.


The EU approving a vaccine just means that it is automatically approved for all EU countries, NOT that non approved vaccines are banned. Every country within the EU can approve any vaccine they want, and they have. I believe that it was Hungary that used the Russian vaccine for example.
Just to clear that up.

Edit: yes, from Jan 21. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55747623
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August 01, 2021, 06:22:03 AM

Now that we've proven Godwin's law....in real news, bitcoin's looking as bullish as a bovine with two dicks.

Yeah, I’m not vaccinated, I have huge doubts about the severity of covid & what the real agenda might be but FFS, can we leave that shit out of the WO.

So about bitcoin, $45,000 next week, maybe?

Sorry.
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August 01, 2021, 06:45:36 AM



You only need to hold btc or stack sats and make yourself more strong and others don't stand any odds to win against it.
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August 01, 2021, 06:59:44 AM
Last edit: August 01, 2021, 07:36:08 AM by ivomm
Merited by El duderino_ (6), LFC_Bitcoin (2), friends1980 (2), suchmoon (1), JayJuanGee (1), Karartma1 (1), shahzadafzal (1)

The current situation reminds me so much of the spring of 2017. Then the leading exchange Bitfinex had problems with the banks and the fiat withdrawals were suspended for 3 months. The users converted usdt to BTC and reversed the trend from negative to positive. Because of that they didn't convert back to fiat and the price went from below 1K up to nearly 3K. Now the leading exchange Binance has similar issues, although withdrawals are not banned. But nontheless the users prefer to convert usdt to BTC and leave the exchange because of the coming derivate suspension and because of the fiat limits/fees and difficulties related to usdt wallets. And since the trend has changed, they won't convet back to usd or usdt on other exchanges immediately. This may turn to be a major boost for this bull run, since it is not caused only by the whales but from millions of users around the world.

Another factor for the current bull run is that many peeps  sold at  30K with the intention to buy at 20K and even lower. Now they see this plan didn't work so they have no choice but to buy higher.

And of course the mass adoption explosion is also an important factor. The number of BTC users has doubled in the last 6 months, adding 2 mil per day new users. According to 2 surveys I've read, the percentage of users has increased from 1% to 2% worldwide only in the last 6 months. The previous doubling needed 10 months. And we are still far far away from the real mass adoption above 80%, which will happen in the coming years. The same exact numbers apply for the institution adoption. So, as good the current situation might be, we can expect much higher prices in the next 5-10 years. The only problem which can delay this increase with up to one cycle is the large scale derivate manipulation, which we've seen in 2018-2020 and the last 2 months. Wall Street shorting companies are certainly the biggest enemy of any asset. But they can't handle the BTC 24/7/365 trading and the limited supply. So at some point their shorts will be liquidated no matter how hard they dump on the spot market. The price tends to return to the fair levels corresponding to the mass adoption with bull cycles which blow away the shorters. We see how fast the options to get BTCs are miltiplying. This leads to an increasing rate, so I would expect reaching the 80% level much sooner than we think. And if the current fair price should be around 50K-100K, then it should be 40x higher - 2-4mil. Of course, this is just an opium, there will be many FUDs and bans along the way. But still it is good to be prepared somehow if we know in general what is going to happen sometime in the near future.

Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785
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August 01, 2021, 07:01:26 AM


Explanation
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August 01, 2021, 08:01:26 AM


Explanation
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August 01, 2021, 08:05:12 AM
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Is this ONLY pertaining to allowing bitcoin or is it a broader policy allowing shitcoins, too?

Maybe a link would be helpful to attempt to suss out some details, if there are some details available.
Here are links for the same article and you could probably find some details here:

Advertise on google

Google new crypto policy

Quote
Under the new rules, crypto wallets will have to be registered with FinCEN or a federal or state-chartered bank entity to get on Google’s ad network. They will also need to “comply with relevant legal requirements, including local legal requirements, whether at a state or federal level”. Of course, all existing Google ad policies apply to crypto companies as well.
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August 01, 2021, 08:25:32 AM

It's crazy how people were waiting for 20k BTC when it dropped to 28, now they are buying at 40. Sick!
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August 01, 2021, 09:01:34 AM


Explanation
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August 01, 2021, 09:11:05 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

go buddy stretch us up and over 44,444.44 by sat morning.

Its bed 🛏 time for me.

But I thought 4 is the number of death, no?

Better pick $55,555.55. We are vaxxed, you know...

That's an interesting proposition, AlcoHoDL - to consider if this run might have a top that is closer to $44,444 or $55,555. 

I hate to lock myself into any scenario that has not happened yet... but sure, there is a kind of need to break through in these lower to mid $40ks that seems likely to fuel more UPpity...

I mean, it's not like we have not been here before.. so $44,444 versus $55,555 seems to be a matter of when rather than "if"....

For me, I can see that there might be some uncertainties regarding if $44,444 is breakable.. and it is surely in a price location that seem to be on the cusp of clearing out most, if any, of the resistance that would exist between $44,444 and $55,555.. so I guess I am suggesting that they do not really seem to be too far apart from one another, yet I am not so brave as to attempt to describe that area as having a high potential for "no man's land"... unless we want to call it some miniature version.. "no babies land".. .but that is not really saying anything... I give up.

It's true though. 4 is supposed to be the number of death. The Chinese among us will confirm it (I'm not Chinese myself, but have Chinese friends who've told me so). Interestingly, you will notice that Asian products often skip "4" in a series of models. For example, in the digital camera market, there was the Canon PowerShot G1, G2, G3, then the G5. There was no G4... Is Canon's leadership superstitious? I don't think so, they're too smart to be, but some of their dumb customers may well be, hence the avoidance of "4". For the same reason, there is often no "Room 13" or "13th Floor" in hotels. It's the same reason why the politicians and military leaders always go to church in public, and strictly follow religious protocols, although they may actually be atheists. They just want to keep the flock happy.

If you ask me, the above mentality is totally stupid, and can even partly explain the anti-vax craze, but I won't go there. To each their own. Life goes on, science/technology advances, some adapt, survive and prosper, others get stuck in their old ways, wear their tin-foil hats and watch Fox News and Alex Jones. Come to think of it, it's a wonderful, self-adapting process, which ultimately promotes the survival of the fittest. There is no need for governments to force anything to anyone. I oppose compulsory vaccinations. Just allow everyone to freely decide what to do, and let the viruses themselves do the hard work.

$55k is better than $44k for sure. And it certainly is a matter of "when" rather than "if". And an UPpity is more likely too, from where we currently stand. And I can also agree that $44k and $55k could in fact be so close to each other that attaining one could quickly lead to the other and the next double digit in the sequence, until there is a need for a third digit, and, before we know it, the counter is reset to $111k. My antennae pick a triple-$k digit price in 2022, which would be awesome and could lead to some major priority shuffling among many of us.

"When", not "if". Those who get it will survive and prosper, those who don't will be left behind and stay poor until they die.
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August 01, 2021, 09:12:05 AM

snip
merited and applauded, always spot on my friend
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August 01, 2021, 09:14:32 AM

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month Grin


january 2021 - check✔
february 2021 - check✔
march 2021 - check✔
april 2021 - check✔
may 2021 - failed✖
june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year Tongue
july 2021 - failed✖  Roll Eyes Grin
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August 01, 2021, 09:25:28 AM
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<…>
Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785


Great analysis +5WO merits (Fillipone has been too generous last month, Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week).

Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!
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August 01, 2021, 10:01:27 AM


Explanation
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August 01, 2021, 11:01:25 AM


Explanation
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August 01, 2021, 11:16:08 AM

Chart buddy interrupt
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August 01, 2021, 12:01:39 PM


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August 01, 2021, 01:01:26 PM


Explanation
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August 01, 2021, 01:07:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

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August 01, 2021, 01:12:09 PM

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy
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