Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

they’re slowly learning that much of this is unnecessary because Bitcoin was designed in such a way that wallets can be frozen, and funds can be moved by court order. In other words, code is not law, law is law.

To imagine how this might work in the future, let’s imagine that Ulbricht’s Silk Road was still active today. If authorities could prove that wallets x, y, and z belonged to Silk Road, say by using blockchain analytics tools combined with traditional investigation techniques, they could secure court orders from judges that issue the orders to miners/nodes and have them simply freeze the funds. Later, a court could order the miners/nodes to move the funds from the Silk Road wallets to the wallets of the receiving agency.

Hahahaha, good luck with that. Secure court orders to miners in Iceland, or inner Mongolia. Sure.

Only if it was that simple.

Yes code is not the law but “open source” code is the law.

IOW, indeed.

Full article here https://coingeek.com/how-much-btc-has-us-government-seized-and-what-does-it-do-with-it/

Maybe part of the comedy is the article's use of the expression:  "simply freeze the funds" which hardly any government or court is going to be that dumb to even try it, are they?  It would be the kind of thing that would inspire scoff law and show the government's impotence in that direction.. so many of us would likely speculate that no government nor court would even want to play that kind of an "order the freeze" card.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Good point.

Until I saw your post, I was kind of wondering what that "crypto" thingie-ma-jiggie was and if it were to be somehow related to bitcoin.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Bro, what is life without bitcoin….

Wait... there IS LIFE without Bitcoin? Or life AFTER Bitcoin like in mindrust's case?  

Life is definitely worse without bitcoin.

It seems that a lot of us would be a pretty pathetic kind of a place without bitcoin.. Maybe we would end up turning into various kinds of political activists? or detached?  or in the woods like Ted Kaczynski?  I suppose that there could be ways to still feel that there is something that can be done about any investment that we make to be in a kind of peril.  Maybe we would hedge with real estate or gold, but surely the gold bugs are not doing good these days.  Would gold do better if bitcoin did not exist? Perhaps?

Another reason to feel lucky that we are not in a position in which we would have to choose some of those various inferior investments.

[edited out]

I can buy $50 a day pretty easy peasy by simply selling the alt coin I simply do not like or  mention. I mine a lot of it I am over invested in gpus. It is why I have been buying $50 a day since we dropped i from the 60k level I think it was on Nov 23.

I sold 17-18k at 61-67k and then went about buying it back using the unnamed shit coin sales.

Of course, we have discussed the idea of make up contributions that exist for retirement plans in the USA for anyone who is 50 years or older, so in the USA, retirement plans may well only allow for the contribution of around $20k per year, but if you are 50 years old or older, then you can add an additional $6,500 to your amount.

So maybe you are considering something similar, philip?  A kind of making up of the stacking of sats.

For sure there could be ways to make $50 per day or $350 per week to be sustainable, yet it is surely a bit more than most normies would be willing to contribute.. but surely, if you are able to sustain an extra $350 per week, then maybe you would want to just keep it as a current practice until you are either at fuck you status or getting close to fuck you status (whatever you determine that fuck you status to be, whether it is $2 million, $3.75 million as you had mentioned before, or some other amount that you believe might be suitable to your specifics).  

Of course, one of the reasons that some of us might seem to get either greedy or anxious in our own stacking of sats is because frequently there can be feelings of security to either arrive to fuck you status early or to end up exceeding it; however, I am also an advocate of NOT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good because if you are able to manage and evaluate your BTC holdings in a way that accounts for volatility, then you should end up in a position that you had ended up pulling the fuck you lever too early.

I know that my charts might not always be sufficiently flexible, but let's say that in your case you had more or less started $350 extra invested in BTC per week and we can presume a starting point of around $50k and an average BTC price appreciation of about 12% per year, so we can see from the below chart that you would end up at around 1.2 BTC extra after four years of sticking with such an ongoing BTC accumulation plan, and nearly 2 BTC if you were able to continue for 8 years.  Of course, I understand that you do not have 8 years, but you just want to put yourself in a better position in a relatively soon time of maybe even less than 5 years, if that were possible.  Of course, I recognize and appreciate that I am projecting out some pretty whimpy BTC appreciation values, but in any case there is going to be some difficulties in having some kind of fair estimation that ends up being accurate, even though we can get some ballpark ideas, and also we can even create our own charts and tweak the assumptions contained therein.


Start $                StartDate                 % gain /time          Time                         Price/BTC                #BTC
$0                        11/23/21                     6.00%                    182.6                   $50,000.00               0.00000000

DCA-$350/Wk                                                                            
   

Date                           $Value                        DCA-Add                    TotInvstd                Profits                 Price/BTC             #BTC
   5/24/22                    $9,646                           $9,646                       $9,100                   6.00%               $53,000                 0.18200000
   11/23/22                    $19,871                           $9,646                       $18,200            9.18%               $56,180                 0.35369811
   5/24/23                    $30,709                           $9,646                       $27,300            12.49%               $59,551                 0.51567747
   11/23/23                    $42,198                           $9,646                       $36,400            15.93%               $63,124                 0.66848817
   5/24/24                    $54,375                           $9,646                       $45,500            19.51%               $66,911                 0.81264922
   11/22/24                    $67,284                           $9,646                       $54,600            23.23%               $70,926                 0.94865021
   5/24/25                    $80,967                           $9,646                       $63,700            27.11%               $75,182                 1.07695303
   11/22/25                    $95,471                           $9,646                       $72,800            31.14%               $79,692                 1.19799342
   5/24/26                    $110,845                           $9,646                       $81,900            35.34%               $84,474                 1.31218247
   11/23/26                    $127,142                           $9,646                       $91,000            39.72%               $89,542                 1.41990799
   5/24/27                    $144,416                           $9,646                       $100,100            44.27%               $94,915                 1.52153584
   11/23/27                    $162,727                           $9,646                       $109,200            49.02%               $100,610                 1.61741117
   5/23/28                    $182,137                           $9,646                       $118,300            53.96%               $106,646                 1.70785960
   11/22/28                    $202,711                           $9,646                       $127,400            59.11%               $113,045                 1.79318830
   5/24/29                    $224,520                           $9,646                       $136,500            64.48%               $119,828                 1.87368707
   11/22/29                    $247,637                           $9,646                       $145,600            70.08%               $127,018                 1.94962932

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[suchmoon]

Unless i completely misunderstand their "slang" it appears that you could be taxed differently for reg income and for cap gains.

That's correct. I may have misunderstood what you were saying in the post I quoted.

So yes, the rates/brackets are different between regular income and cap gains, but cap gain rate depends on total income, not just on cap gain income. IOW regular income can push you into a higher cap gain bracket. Cap gains can't push you into a higher regular tax bracket. But there are other hidden costs (e.g. higher total income may affect eligibility for some retirement contributions).

[lightfoot]

Example: You are married, have 200K income and 200K long term cap gains.
Your "regular" combined income is taxed at 32%, but your longterm cap gains are taxed at 15%.
See the table in here:
https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

Capital gains will not cause your ordinary income to be taxed at a higher rate..
So, again, long-term capital gains are taxed at different rates and separately from your ordinary income.

Unless i completely misunderstand their "slang" it appears that you could be taxed differently for reg income and for cap gains.

Correct. So your 80k 0% CG tax applies to 80k if you don't work a day all year, but for every day you work that 0% is replaced by the income tax rate. So the best option is to be a complete louse, live off your LTCG and pay zero taxes on the first 80k. Which by the way is equal to a 100k "salary" because of all the taxes that cum out.

After that it's taxed at 15% up to a couple of hundred G (half million or so). That may seem a lot, but remember there is no Social Security "tax" nor is there any Medicare or employment taxes. So it's lower than you think. This is why it's good to be rich.

However you can't contribute to an IRA or 401k with CG money, you need to have income. Which leads to my real fun question:

If on Jan 1 you redirect 100% of your salary to a 401k, then quit once you hit $19500 (the 401k limits), do you still get the whole 80k CG at 0% rate because the 401k was a "top line" (before AGI) deduction or is it based on total income?

Is health insurance paid for by CG profits deductible? Since Health insurance is another top line deduction can you work an extra few weeks for that money and still get the 80k 0% CG tax rate?

Inquiring minds want to know. :-)

[suchmoon]

If on Jan 1 you redirect 100% of your salary to a 401k, then quit once you hit $19500 (the 401k limits), do you still get the whole 80k CG at 0% rate because the 401k was a "top line" (before AGI) deduction or is it based on total income?

It's based on taxable income. There is also standard deduction ($25k if married) so technically I guess you can make close to $50k and still pay 0% on CG.

Is health insurance paid for by CG profits deductible? Since Health insurance is another top line deduction can you work an extra few weeks for that money and still get the 80k 0% CG tax rate?

Non-employer health plan payments are not tax-deductible (unless you itemize, which you wouldn't in this scenario).

[Biodom]

Example: You are married, have 200K income and 200K long term cap gains.
Your "regular" combined income is taxed at 32%, but your longterm cap gains are taxed at 15%.
See the table in here:
https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

Capital gains will not cause your ordinary income to be taxed at a higher rate..
So, again, long-term capital gains are taxed at different rates and separately from your ordinary income.

Unless i completely misunderstand their "slang" it appears that you could be taxed differently for reg income and for cap gains.

...So the best option is to be a complete louse, live off your LTCG and pay zero taxes on the first 80k. Which by the way is equal to a 100k "salary" because of all the taxes that cum out.

a well fed 'louse'..i get it

Which leads to my real fun question:

If on Jan 1 you redirect 100% of your salary to a 401k, then quit once you hit $19500 (the 401k limits), do you still get the whole 80k CG at 0% rate because the 401k was a "top line" (before AGI) deduction or is it based on total income?

Is health insurance paid for by CG profits deductible? Since Health insurance is another top line deduction can you work an extra few weeks for that money and still get the 80k 0% CG tax rate?

Inquiring minds want to know. :-)

Great questions..i don't know and in my org they like you to quit (retire) either in January or September (for some strange reason).
That trick with 401K is definitely something to consider or at least run by the CPA (EDIT: @suchmoon is obviously well versed in this). Thanks!

Now, that our cap gains are currently melting..maybe I would still consider working for a couple more halvings.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I don't see any reason to leave WO, i started here and will continue be active until i die..i guess. ( If i haven't posted here for atleast 3 months ore so that means i'm dead )

hahahahaha..... I had to chuckle at that one a wee bit.

Yes.. .each of us is going to die, and surely you are not one of those who is planning on immortality.... .. but there could be exceptions to your suggestion dead=3+ months of not posting.

What about that meme where you come out of a coma?

Instead of asking what is the price of bitcoin, your question will be:  "am I still logged in?"  Then: "Holy fucking shit, 9,376 pages to read!!!!!  I hope that they don't think that I am dead merely because I have not posted for 21 months and 21 days" 

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

That's still including your net taxable income.  In other words, if you have other income that might even be more than half of that, then you only get the remainder that you can write off for bitcoin capital gains.

So, for example, let's say that your net taxable income is $60,800, then you can only have $20k in bitcoin capital gains that is free from taxes.  right?

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

Not if your income (the stuff you get for being a wage slave) exceeds 80k. That is like the crappiest phase out ever. Unless I am wrong about that.

What lightfoot said.

[Biodom]

@jjg..yes, that calc is correct. You have to NOT work to take the advantage of it, which is kind of weird. The weird part it that, somehow, your reg income gets subtracted from 80.8K cap gains "allowance', albeit your income is NOT, by itself, cap gains.

[lightfoot]

@suchmoon seems to know a bit about this (disclaimer: anyone here can be anything or nothing so take none of this as formal advice, more enhanced bullshit) but if the 80k is based on *taxable* income then a really big question pops up:

How much should you "earn" (ha ha) each year and still keep the full 80k CG tax break?

Looks like you can do the full 401k contribution, that's 19.5k in the box (must be from slave wages).
Spouse don't work? IRA for them, 6k there (must be from slave wages)
Sounds like the personal deduction as well (so another 25k)
And if you have health care paid in part by the employer the employee part is covered. (Let's assume a 1.5k a month health plan with 1.2 paid by employer and 300 by you)

So hm. 50.5k earnings+80k CG=130.5k total with 105k in your pocket, 25.5k in your retirement plan and a fully legal and legit $0.00 paid in taxes*.

Hm...... Guess it's time to compute "fuck you" day.

* Note you would still have to pay FICA and Medicare taxes on that income, but I don't know if those taxes would be taken out of earnings before or after for the purposes of computing the full 80k CG tax break. Oddly enough you do not seem to have to pay FICA or Medicare taxes on CG.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lightfoot]

[Biodom]

Oddly enough you do not seem to have to pay FICA or Medicare taxes on CG.

yea, but above certain number (200K for single, 250K for family) you pay additional 3.8% NIIT (net investment income tax).
Gosh..this is complicated... but only tea for me tonight.

[suchmoon]

@suchmoon seems to know a bit about this (disclaimer: anyone here can be anything or nothing so take none of this as formal advice, more enhanced bullshit)

Yes... "talk to your CPA" should be implied in everything posted here about taxes.

* Note you would still have to pay FICA and Medicare taxes on that income, but I don't know if those taxes would be taken out of earnings before or after for the purposes of computing the full 80k CG tax break.

AFAIK those are not taxable so yeah.

Now for even more fun: If you "turn out the goods" (IE have your spouse work) can *they* also contribute a max of 19500 to a 401k plan? If so...

There is this thing called solo 401k, which you can have if you're self-employed. So... what if your spouse is self-employed as a Bitcoin seller. Or maybe you can do the same. There are probably some interesting things that can be done with that.

[JayJuanGee]

The year end seems to be quite annoying, isn't it?

2021 was not a great year by many occurrences:

1. A skimpy bull run despite all rah-rah-rah expectations. We basically did slightly better than double in four years; pretty good by stock market standards, quite low compared to what was expected.

Yes.. you would be able to pull a negative spin out of your ass on the whole situation.

One of the thing that bothers me about attachment to calendar year as if it were some kind of an appropriate measurement of where we are at or where we had come from, and you had already shown your previous disingenuineness by harping on the 2017 ATH as if it were an appropriate measuring point.

2. Viral persistence. How many waves we gonna get?
3. Being totally tired of #2. Reinfection rises in the people I know.
4. The rise and rise of everyday rudeness...especially on our "autobahns".

Since when is clown world about bitcoin?  yeah.. people do dumb shit.

Prediction:

Bitcoin is incompatible with your typical political/investor operator psyche.
As such, the path forward would be slower and more tenuous than I expected.
It is entirely possible that 'they' would try to control the narrative by pushing some solutions that are more easily controlled: it could be E-coin or S-coin or some other shitcoin (heck, it might even be xerp, once it settles), but it ain't going to be bitcoin as they cannot direct it to their benefit.

TL;DR Slow bitcoin in 2022, politicos heavily promoting a few shitcoins (probably the most corrupt ones). Fiat stock market slightly down, maybe 5-7%.

Yeah of course they are going to attempt all kinds of shit, but does not necessarily mean that they are going to take away from king daddy.  good luck with your various shitcoin distractions and the other distractions that you are attempting to attribute meaning to.

You can go along with and invest in that shit all that you want, but Gresham law is going to continue to cause value to gravitate into bitcoin whether you are on the train with your 20 BTC or distracted or whatever... sure it could take 20 to 50 years for it to become clear to some folks that bitcoin is the winner, but for a lot of us, we can already see that bitcoin is the winner, it is just a matter of time for all the monetary related value to end up flowing into it.

Turducken.

I'd rather have turducken than soy or some beyond meat bullshit.... don't be trying to sell me those processed bullshit food imitations and telling me that they are just as good for me and my health as the real thing. 

Life is not long, so I don't want to make it even less long by eating imitation food.. turducken is fine once in a while..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well, it doesn't really matter if you get it, if it doesn't make you seriously ill.

I heard one health expert talking on one of the mainstream media programs and he said that it appears that Omicron is not as severe, but if more people are getting sick, even if it is not severe, then that could be a problem too..

I thought that was a bit of a stretch of the imagination.

Part of the justification for a lot of the extreme measures was supposed to be that a lot of extra people were dying, but now they are saying that people might not be dying but they are getting really sick (and presumably recovering from that, too), but it is a problem because a lot of people are either getting sick or might get sick... and so the dying is disappearing from the justification for the extreme measures.

Now, that our cap gains are currently melting..maybe I would still consider working for a couple more halvings.

Surely, you are tempting a response from me, Biodom.

I will just say don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and leave it at that for now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tash]

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

We’re 2 years in now & it still spreads like wild fire. It’s clear masks do very little by now.
People will be on their 4th jabs soon but we still have restrictions. I’ve been done with this bull shit for a long time now.

Some face-diaper not gona do anything for something coming out of  level 4 biohazard lab.
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation