Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Already going up again.

Turned my 100 Big Macs money into 102 Big Macs within a few hours.
That's better than losing 15 Big Macs per year if I'd kept the money in the bank.

 

Seriously, I'm so hungry now, I could eat some of your Big Macs...

I will avoid it, in light of cAPSLOCK's good dietary advice, and will, instead, proceed to a nice BBQ (only meat, lemon, salt, pepper & herbs -- no carbs) at my COVID-19-recovered cousin's place tonight. I hope there's no virus there anymore, as I will not be using protection.

If feels so good to be a true HoDLer. Not affected by dippenings. Not at all.

Life's good. Enjoy every minute of it.

I am thinking about this.. .

the riding it out way of dealing with matters.

Surely, it's a possible approach/perspective.

I guess at this point nobody can tell you what will happen next. It's more than unclear, it's a great enigma. S2F invalidated, 4 year cycle broken (or is it not?). So what awaits us? Truly, this time it's different..

Hahahahahaha

Another interesting perspective.

Which way we are going is like a stab in the dark at this point.. or a throwing a dart at a board with a bad arm or a random pulling of a jelly bean from a jar with a blindfold. 

Who knows?


Who knows?

Don't you just love a mystery?








Or do mysteries like this put you in to trepidation-landia?

Humanitarian aid sent to FTX:



Will the victim be given first aid, so to speak, put on his feet?

Not sure if I understand who the "victim" would be.

Anyone know?


Anyone?

Anyone?

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[xhomerx10]

This is going the way I predicted. Short above $10k. Buy above $100. That's my game.

 So... you're in a sort of self-imposed perpetual liquidation 1:1 hedging over 10k?

[xhomerx10]

Humanitarian aid sent to FTX:



Will the victim be given first aid, so to speak, put on his feet?

Not sure if I understand who the "victim" would be.

Anyone know?


Anyone?

Anyone?

  Bitcoin i hope.   I wouldn't be opposed to a 500 million dollar booster shot. 

[tertius993]

I guess at this point nobody can tell you what will happen next. It's more than unclear, it's a great enigma. S2F invalidated, 4 year cycle broken (or is it not?). So what awaits us? Truly, this time it's different..

Just to clarify: From my understanding the "floor model" invalidated, while S2F is still intact unless BTC won't hit $100k this cycle.
Right?

I think this depends entirely on your definition of “invalidated”.

As of right now the price is less than half the S2F prediction (which is around $107-109k depending on which version of S2F you want to use). Does that mean it’s invalidated … or do you take a broader view?

[naim027]

Humanitarian aid sent to FTX:



Will the victim be given first aid, so to speak, put on his feet?

Not sure if I understand who the "victim" would be.

Anyone know?


Anyone?

Anyone?

  Bitcoin i hope.   I wouldn't be opposed to a 500 million dollar booster shot.  

I am thinking positively. Is it possible that whales are preparing with these USDT to Buy Bitcoin?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Looking earning BTC by Mining ETH (yeah I said it) is fine.

Yes... of course, you said it.. but you have a track record of being quite ongoingly distracted.. so there is that angle to what you might consider as "fine", no?

Move on.

Not a bad idea.

But are you ready, willing and able to actually "move on"

Unless I said I was stacking ETH and was hoping for ETH to flip BTC then I would be an a-hole

That's the "a-hole" threshold?  Who would-a-thunk.

Humanitarian aid sent to FTX:



Will the victim be given first aid, so to speak, put on his feet?

Not sure if I understand who the "victim" would be.

Anyone know?


Anyone?

Anyone?

  Bitcoin i hope.   I wouldn't be opposed to a 500 million dollar booster shot. 

I must be so dumb...

I still don't get it.

[naim027]

Just think positive. We are back here from the future. We got a chance to buy the DIP. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

GM - DOH - I’m just going off to my happy place for a while

This gave me so much hope for humanity!!!

Good relaxing content. Have any idea from what movie or commercial it is??    

[xhomerx10]

GM - DOH - I’m just going off to my happy place for a while

This gave me so much hope for humanity!!!

Good relaxing content. Have any idea from what movie or commercial it is??    

Either Happy Gilmore or The Matrix; my memory is corrupt.

[sirazimuth]

Ya know....I was just thinking...
A lot of folks on this thread have a secret love of Mackle Dee's.
I know I'm addicted to that orange goo and filet-o-fish product thingy, oozing with thick lumpy cum sauce within the golden, spongy, hot steamy Wonder Bread bun ..






GO BITCOIN

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISt6u1_gZcE

Sit tight and assess      

[OutOfMemory]

Between now and 1 year from now bitcoin will spend more time below $40k than above it. Write it down.

Oh my.

That's too bad.

By the way.. goat breath, you may well be lucky to even see one day that ends up actually below $40k in the coming year.. .not saying that it could not happen.. but the odds seem against uie pooie.  

He (she? it?) could be right tho.
After a blow off top in Q1 2022, BTC could well "crash" down under $40k within 2 months-ish and zig zag around, down to the ultimate $20k capitulation bottom in 2023.
Then proudhon's call would be probably valid.

GM - DOH - I’m just going off to my happy place for a while

This gave me so much hope for humanity!!!

Good relaxing content. Have any idea from what movie or commercial it is??    

Either Happy Gilmore or The Matrix; my memory is corrupt.

Dude! Happy Gilmore of course!
Legendary. Watched it dozens of times. I can see the DVD case from where i'm currently sitting 

[savetherainforest]

Between now and 1 year from now bitcoin will spend more time below $40k than above it. Write it down.

Oh my.

That's too bad.

By the way.. goat breath, you may well be lucky to even see one day that ends up actually below $40k in the coming year.. .not saying that it could not happen.. but the odds seem against uie pooie.  

He (she? it?) could be right tho.
After a blow off top in Q1 2022, BTC could well "crash" down under $40k within 2 months-ish and zig zag around, down to the ultimate $20k capitulation bottom in 2023.
Then proudhon's call would be probably valid.

It's a "He". ... Only Gawd is a 'She', cuz it's always fun to have erotic dreams with a Goddess. <3            

[OutOfMemory]

Would Schroedinger also currently ask himself if this cat is dead or alive?

We need some more volume, imo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9gOQgfPW4Y

[savetherainforest]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISt6u1_gZcE

Sit tight and assess      

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMiLUB-skEg    <<< BAHAHAHAHAHAaaaaa....

.... Aha...

[cAPSLOCK]

Price thoughts as of 12/4.

In case you've missed it, we have had a fairly large drawdown in price very quickly over the last 24 hours.  I have been working on some hopium so I can keep deluding myself from proudhon's science.

As I have been saying for some time, retail markets have been very thinly traded during this "cycle".  Retail is more interested in dog coins and NFTs this time around.

Long exchange open interest futures have been rising for a couple of months.  It is natural for these big futures imbalances to get "washed out" from time to time.  And since the majority of futures trading still happens on retail exchanges when the contracts get executed because of price they settle on those exchanges.  This is all done automatically and the sells execute into the retail order books.

Since the order books at retail exchanges CONTINUE to be anemic this can cause a fairly extreme price swing on these retail exchanges.

It is my assertion that bitcoin trade is happening elsewhere than the retail exchanges for the most part.  But these exchanges still act as a price oracle for most other trading.  Prices on a DEX or something like localbitcoins.com are tied to exchange prices.  Coinbase, Finex, Stamp and Kraken often being seen as the metric.  And of course the OTC desks at these entities operate based on that exchanges price.

Because of this I see a high likelihood of this being a STRONG over-correction and expect the price at the exchanges to bounce back as long as we are not entering an extended bear market.  That makes this a bit of a March '20 event, and people taking long positions right now are likely to do well.

I expect that the institutional/family office/hedge fund type traders are lighting up the OTC desks open over the weekend, while the retail volume REMAINS anemic.  I think we should see some good gains early next week as well if my theory is true.

I believe this market is out of balance.  In my opinion, it will remain so until retail volume begins to pick up.  This is NOT because retail volume is all that important.  In fact, it is because retail PRICES are more important than they should be.  These markets are trading differently than any other times in Bitcoin's history  And the current forces with the market and news, and general zeitgeist are continuing to drive the price of Bitcion in a direction it is not natural for it to be going.

One more thought:  People seem to be holding an awful lot of funerals for PlanB.  And I would think his prediction of 100k in 2021, IS indeed likely not to come to pass at THIS point. Particularly with retail poised to sell in December to settle tax bills.  But I would not write off his model entirely yet... It could take a dent here, but pick back up depending on how things go over the next several weeks.  Depending on what happens next this could be a fairly quick V shaped dip.

Or maybe bitcoin is just dead this time...

[OutOfMemory]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISt6u1_gZcE

Sit tight and assess      

Why do the words "tight" and "asses(s)" always sting out when i read this?  

EDIT: #nohomo

EDIT2: Need some market distraction. Movie time 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

Or maybe bitcoin is just dead this time...

It's super cereal dead this time, bro.

For realz.

RIP.