Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[Wekkel]

WillyBot is back......you have been warned.

Looks like one of them NFT's 

[ivomm]

Shitcoins have come back very strong, good portion of them have completely elimanted their weekend losses and are up on the week. Bitcoin looks very tired and heavy in comparison.

To me this could mean 2 things. 1) no significant retail buying is happening with BTC anymore. or 2) BTC investors know something that the shitcoins don't, which is most likely more dumps on Monday. Or I guess both.

Don't like any of those options honestly.

For me the problem is not the lack of a retail interest. The problem is that anytime the price increases, immediately it is pulled back by the bots of Binance traders. And the reason for this is that probably too many monkeys are fighting for one banana, i.e. too many are trying with a leverage from 10x to 100x to make some profit. Hence the increased number of long positions - since the first big crash in May, they tried to compensate by investing again at prices which were looking stable - around 59K. And because the bots of all exchanges are using Binance price, the role of short and long positions there has become crucial, like Bitmex in the past. The only difference is that Bitmex manipulators used Bitstamp and Kraken as low volume exchanges to bring down the price, while now Binance longers are selling on each miniscule price increase on Binance to get some profit. The effect is the same. They failed once again, losing all their investment. Before the crash on Binance there were 2.7 bil longs. After the crash only 1.5 bil survived.

The quiestion now is when the gravity of this always losing game will be overcome and the price starts to climb again. Hopefully the effect will be felt as early as the next week and it will continue until the n00bs take loans and open another 100x leveraged longs somewhere between 120K and 200K. It is funny how the new ATH's make everybody happy, but only the hodlers can realize profits. Definitely not the naiive wet-dreaming long gamblers aka nocoiners, who end up with red eyes and empty pockets... ALWAYS. I think proudhon is one of them, once having thousands of bitcoins, which were lost on stupid shorts and still waiting for the price to falls to 100$. Now, this is the definition of pathetic  

Yes the influence Binance has over this market is disturbing and I felt the same way about bitmex. I wonder with these exchanges though, are they also doing the dodgy themselves, are they manipulating the price. Let's face exchanges are a black box, they get up to all sorts of shit, Binance has always avoided regulatory scrutiny where it can and I don't think it's because they are libertarians. What do you think? could Binance be manipulating the situtation in anyway?

There is one major difference between Bitmex and Binance. Bitmex owners are well known scammers, who were often accused of foul play against their customers. I haven't read anything similar for Binance owners, which doesn't mean they are alright, of course. Surely there are all kinds of manupulations on most of the exchanges. But I think that the main force which is restraining the prices and causing sporadic dips and crashes is the irrational volume of long liquidations in Binance. I've been watching the liquidation data closely and each time there is a 2-3% dip there are 5-10x more long liquidations, compared to short liquidations during a 2-3% price increase. This shows that the shorters are more cautios this year, while the longers are quite reckless.

In general, what happens in derivate exchanges stays there. But Binance is an exception - it is simultaneously a derivate and a spot exchange. So what happens there has a real impact on the price. The volume above 40K bitcoins each day is beyond the power of a single whale. And the liquidation data confirms  that there are millions of longers losing ~100$. It is like a new Tortuga attracting all kind of wastrels and seekers of treasure. They refuse to invest and hope to get lucky, not caring about Bitcoin or the odds of winning. And if they claim here the odds are good, then they are surely applying proudhon's math and science  .

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/readysatoshi/status/1467024948262674432?s=21

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

“#Bitcoin  creates its own reality“
https://twitter.com/tip_nz/status/1467190775989489664?s=21

This tweet brings up the idea that time is money, and money is time. Most Average Joe sheeple think that every fiat dollar they earn is an honest unit of work expended into the global GDP.

But if your salary and the salary of every other person around you is paid in money that is printed by the FED for free (to the tune of $120B/month), does that mean your time-spent work truly has any lasting value?

Nope.

And that's the rub. We're now living in a zombie-corp run world, with global work solely propped up with freely-printed monopoly money. And they want its spending value to melt as fast as cotton candy in a rain storm. Look for CBDCs in the future to have an expiration date.

[somac.]

Shitcoins have come back very strong, good portion of them have completely elimanted their weekend losses and are up on the week. Bitcoin looks very tired and heavy in comparison.

To me this could mean 2 things. 1) no significant retail buying is happening with BTC anymore. or 2) BTC investors know something that the shitcoins don't, which is most likely more dumps on Monday. Or I guess both.

Don't like any of those options honestly.

For me the problem is not the lack of a retail interest. The problem is that anytime the price increases, immediately it is pulled back by the bots of Binance traders. And the reason for this is that probably too many monkeys are fighting for one banana, i.e. too many are trying with a leverage from 10x to 100x to make some profit. Hence the increased number of long positions - since the first big crash in May, they tried to compensate by investing again at prices which were looking stable - around 59K. And because the bots of all exchanges are using Binance price, the role of short and long positions there has become crucial, like Bitmex in the past. The only difference is that Bitmex manipulators used Bitstamp and Kraken as low volume exchanges to bring down the price, while now Binance longers are selling on each miniscule price increase on Binance to get some profit. The effect is the same. They failed once again, losing all their investment. Before the crash on Binance there were 2.7 bil longs. After the crash only 1.5 bil survived.

The quiestion now is when the gravity of this always losing game will be overcome and the price starts to climb again. Hopefully the effect will be felt as early as the next week and it will continue until the n00bs take loans and open another 100x leveraged longs somewhere between 120K and 200K. It is funny how the new ATH's make everybody happy, but only the hodlers can realize profits. Definitely not the naiive wet-dreaming long gamblers aka nocoiners, who end up with red eyes and empty pockets... ALWAYS. I think proudhon is one of them, once having thousands of bitcoins, which were lost on stupid shorts and still waiting for the price to falls to 100$. Now, this is the definition of pathetic  

Yes the influence Binance has over this market is disturbing and I felt the same way about bitmex. I wonder with these exchanges though, are they also doing the dodgy themselves, are they manipulating the price. Let's face exchanges are a black box, they get up to all sorts of shit, Binance has always avoided regulatory scrutiny where it can and I don't think it's because they are libertarians. What do you think? could Binance be manipulating the situtation in anyway?

There is one major difference between Bitmex and Binance. Bitmex owners are well known scammers, who were often accused of foul play against their customers. I haven't read anything similar for Binance owners, which doesn't mean they are alright, of course. Surely there are all kinds of manupulations on most of the exchanges. But I think that the main force which is restraining the prices and causing sporadic dips and crashes is the irrational volume of long liquidations in Binance. I've been watching the liquidation data closely and each time there is a 2-3% dip there are 5-10x more long liquidations, compared to short liquidations during a 2-3% price increase. This shows that the shorters are more cautios this year, while the longers are quite reckless.

In general, what happens in derivate exchanges stays there. But Binance is an exception - it is simultaneously a derivate and a spot exchange. So what happens there has a real impact on the price. The volume above 40K bitcoins each day is beyond the power of a single whale. And the liquidation data confirms  that there are millions of longers losing ~100$. It is like a new Tortuga attracting all kind of wastrels and seekers of treasure. They refuse to invest and hope to get lucky, not caring about Bitcoin or the odds of winning. And if they claim here the odds are good, then they are surely applying proudhon's math and science  .

Ok sounds fair enough, so the longs are using excesive leverage but the shorts are not. At what point does this end though because it is somewhat frustrating (I don't expect an answer)?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

“#Bitcoin  creates its own reality“
https://twitter.com/tip_nz/status/1467190775989489664?s=21

 Apparently it creates a lot of bass and distortion as well.

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://twitter.com/readysatoshi/status/1467024948262674432?s=21

 

Exellent

We have Luca Brecel in the UK snooker final today from 🇧🇪

Will be backing him in honour of the dude

[goldkingcoiner]

Coincidence? I very much doubt it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1467333081505976323



 

[becoin]

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1467333081505976323



 

He doesn't trade for his country. He buys for his country. There is a huge difference!

[cAPSLOCK]

Ya know....I was just thinking...
A lot of folks on this thread have a secret love of Mackle Dee's.
I know I'm addicted to that orange goo and filet-o-fish product thingy, oozing with thick lumpy cum sauce within the golden, spongy, hot steamy Wonder Bread bun ..






GO BITCOIN

You make it sound so... erm... delicious? ( yuck!)

The only thing I like from there is the fries.  They got that down to an art for sure.

[cAPSLOCK]

Shitcoins have come back very strong, good portion of them have completely elimanted their weekend losses and are up on the week. Bitcoin looks very tired and heavy in comparison.

To me this could mean 2 things. 1) no significant retail buying is happening with BTC anymore. or 2) BTC investors know something that the shitcoins don't, which is most likely more dumps on Monday. Or I guess both.

Don't like any of those options honestly.

For me the problem is not the lack of a retail interest. The problem is that anytime the price increases, immediately it is pulled back by the bots of Binance traders.

This is a good point I want to sharpen a bit.

I keep talking about retail being missing.  And I should adjust to say that I do not think retail coming back is the "fix".  In fact I am worried that the current bitcoin infrastructure (Traditional Exchanges (coinbase , kraken, et al), Neo exchanges (CashApp, Strike), the Lightning and Liquid networks etc) may be in for a rather rough stress test once the public comes back to big daddy corn.

But the issue is the retail markets are still the price oracle.  I am making a HUGE bet that Bitcoin trading volume is WAY underrepresented by the TRADITIONAL exchanges because they are reporting the Retail SPOT market metrics.

The Neo Exchanges are where Gen Z is buying corn (Yeees, including Robinhood... meh), and the Traditional exchanges are probably in this hidden battle with each other to satisfy a growing OTC trade.

The the illusion is the Retail spot markets... still being led by the old guard are out of whack with what is really happening.

Traditional Exchanges:  Focusing on their OTC desks
Neo Exchanges:  Focusing on the DCA Millennial and under buyer.

In fact the latter is most likely one of the big customers of the former.  And what this means is the market makers have found yet another way to manipulate the markets because the people setting the Price are no longer really the people selling to the masses...

I helped a woman in her 60s at my church get into bitcoin (it was around 10k.. last summer-ish) and I recommended Kraken, Gemini, and CashApp.  She ended up wanting to buy more than she was allowed to at CashApp, but even though that was the case she also ended up doing 90% of her "trading" there simply because it was the easiest to deal with.

The average laser-eyes Gen-Zer is DCAing in at Swan Bitcoin rather than setting up an exchange account at Gemini.

Anyway... what I am trying to figure out now is:

-How much of this weird imbalance it what is causing these swings? 
-How does it flow to a better balance?
-What does that mean will happen.

And only THEN:
-What will happen when retail comes back to bitcoin?
----Where will they be buying?
----What will this stress do to the whole eco-stucture?

And so on...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1467333081505976323



 

I seriously want to move to ES and start a recording studio in Bitcoin City.

Real good chance I am putting too much faith in Bukele, but he is redeeming an entire generation for me.  Yeah hes playing populist games... but he is also making a lot of great decisions for his country.  People are bitching about "legal tender" and all kinds of other shit... but this guy is sticking his neck out.  Seriously.  And he has a chance to be remembered VERY WELL in  (Central) American History.

As long as he does not either get assassinated, or turns into some despot.

[tertius993]

Ya know....I was just thinking...
A lot of folks on this thread have a secret love of Mackle Dee's.
I know I'm addicted to that orange goo and filet-o-fish product thingy, oozing with thick lumpy cum sauce within the golden, spongy, hot steamy Wonder Bread bun ..






GO BITCOIN

You make it sound so... erm... delicious? ( yuck!)

The only thing I like from there is the fries.  They got that down to an art for sure.

Given the earlier conversation about diet it’s rather frightening …

Personally I haven’t been to a McDonald’s (or any similar fast food “restaurant”) this century and plan to keep it that way.

[JimboToronto]

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Four eight six two one dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

Let's get the price up
Over fifty thousand bucks.
So go Bitcoin go.

The only thing I like from there is the fries.  They got that down to an art for sure.

That's because they add artificial beef fat flavoring to the vegetable grease they fry them in.

Originally they were even better because they used real beef renderings before yielding to SJW/vegan/political-correctness BS in the 1990s.

It originally started by adding the fat that cooked out of their burgers to the fryers. The customers simply knew that their fries tasted better.

I wonder if the artificial beef flavoring they use now is produced from chemicals derived from animal products. If so, don't tell the vegans. They'll have a snit fit.