I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.
What you do is you randomly assign percentages based on your current emotions
Are you serious dragonvslinux?
Some of us might get lines wrong, but I suspect that cAPSLOCK is attempting to be objective rather than emotional, even if there are some faults in his squiggly placements.
I could be wrong, but I took that more as a playful suggestion rather than a criticism of my own processes.
Fair enough.. I did see the possible friendly jab in there too.......
That said, I also do work on remaining objective in this environment, which is, frankly, sometimes hard. Even after so many years of rising the Bitcoin coaster I can still get a little shook up by it.
Yep... it is a bit strange that many of us can still get those kinds of feelings, even if we were to take an average cost of $1k, and we can feel that we went down from 69x in profits to ONLY 41x in profits... but maybe if our costs were ONLY $100 then we would be less concerned about going down from 690x in profits to ONLY 410x in profits, even though we would prefer to NOT be going down in our profits levels, but for sure there is some dynamic in there regarding how much in profits we might be.
Oh, and take the other side of the profits level with some of the newbies of the past few years, some of these guys might have been able to accumulate a stash for an average of around $10k, as the example that I provided with shahzadafzal a few days ago
(last paragraph of this post). These guys might have gone from 6.9x in profits to ONLY 4.1x in profits, and so of course, they likely become even more worried than the guys with an earlier bitcoin entry-point timeline.
I believe that the sense of more calm these days does not ONLY come from your level of profits in you BTC investment portfolio, but also: 1) the overall power of the bitcoin investment thesis including the BIGgedness of some of the new bitcoin entrants becoming much more powerful in the past couple of years and 2) various aspects of recent BTC price performance that include both the 56% correction of May/June/July and today's so far 41% correction, shows that downside BTC price scenarios are not as likely to be in the 70% to 90% arena.. a 70
% correction would bring BTC prices down to $20k-ish, and a 90% correction would bring BTC prices down to $6,900-ish. I just cannot see those kinds of scenarios being too likely in playing out, and I cannot imagine a world in which trucks won't be backed up to fill with BTC in the event that sub $30k prices were to be seen again.. ... so even though anything could happen, including the lower of prices, it does seem that we can feel a certain level of confidence regarding the extremes of how bad it could get even being tolerable scenarios.
Though I will say my current feeling of general zen around the market action is definitely something way higher than any other time in the past.
One major improvement, is I wrote a simple little android widget in which I could put an equation. It made two API calls to get BTC and XMR prices. And showed me a sum. Basically "'how many dollars is your Bitcoin (and XMR) worth at this moment". After running that for years.. I stopped about 3 months ago. A damn good choice, frankly.
Well maybe it gets back to the question regarding NOT worrying so much about the level of your wealth going down from 690x in profits to ONLY 410x in profits because even if the amount that your wealth has gone down looks like a lot, you are not really that materially affected by that - unless, I suppose that you were considering cashing out soon.. and many of us remain long term HODLers even if we have been into BTC for a while, so we can shave off a bit of BTC anytime that we want.. and don't get me wrong, I am more in the camp of the going from 69x in profits to ONLY 41x in profits, so I don't really feel that I am greatly hindered in the event that I would want to shave off some BTC.. and let's say for example, any of us longer term BTC HODLers would want to shave off some relatively large quantity of BTC in the coming calendar year (2022), and maybe that quantity is ONLY a few percentages of our BTC holdings.... so if we end up shaving off at the worst times in the year, maybe we end up having to shave off 4-5% of our holdings, but if we could catch a price spike we would get the same amount of cash for 1-2%... so there might be some preference to be able to cash out at a top rather than a bottom.. even though we cannot really know where those are at, exactly.. especially while we are in the midst of the whole thing and thinking what should we do? Based on the dip where we are at right now (40% down), my tentative plan would be to shave off 1/4 of the amount every quarter.. and yeah, the cashing out will not get maximized, but if there were a spike in the middle, I might be able to cash out more.. let's say prices shot up into the $90ks, then maybe I would just shave off the whole amount rather than 1/4 each quarter, but of course there surely would be discretion and each guy is not necessarily going to execute such shaving off of BTC in the same ways.
Poll
