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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 5 (6.5%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.6%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.9%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (9.1%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 11 (14.3%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 17 (22.1%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 7 (9.1%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (7.8%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.9%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.6%)
>$40,000 - 14 (18.2%)
Total Voters: 77

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25619280 times)
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January 18, 2022, 05:05:58 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

~ Intel ~

I'll believe it when I see it. Intel has their own fabs so in theory they could have a huge advantage over Bitmain and other peasants waiting in line at TSMC but they just recently deployed 7nm technology that's been mainstream in ASICs for a few years now. And it isn't even "real" 7nm - the official line is that Intel employs some magic geometry to pack more stuff into a 10nm die that makes it "equivalent" to 7nm but their consumer CPUs use more power than e.g. AMD CPUs (TSMC 7nm) so it remains to be seen how well those tricks can work for SHA256 ASICs.

Quote
It appears that Intel is about the enter the Bitcoin-mining hardware business, but not with its new upcoming GPUs. The ISSCC conference is a yearly gathering of the best and brightest minds in the chip industry. This year, Intel has a presentation scheduled in the 'Highlighted Chip Releases' category to outline a new "Bonanza Mine" processor, a new chip described as an "ultra-low-voltage energy-efficient Bitcoin mining ASIC." That means Intel could soon compete with the likes of Bitmain in the market for specialized ASICs for Bitcoin mining.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-to-unveil-bitcoin-mining-bonanza-mine-asic-at-chip-conference




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January 18, 2022, 05:15:05 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), d_eddie (1)

What's that ticking noise? ⏲️ ⏲️

China's Property Sector Is Crashing Again And This Time It Has Reached The Country's Biggest Developer
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-property-sector-crashing-again-and-time-it-has-reached-countrys-biggest-developer

Tick tock, tick tock... ⏲️

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/07/chinas-property-problems-spread-to-once-healthy-developers-like-shimao.html

Torque's Prediction:

1. China's over-leveraged, mega Ponzi property market will start to finally, really implode by mid 2022. This will be the catalyst for another possible worldwide recession (did we ever leave one?)

2. Wealthy investors and hedge funds with insider knowledge will start front running these events, buying up Bitcoin starting Dec 2021 and resuming first week of January 2022. They likely already know what is coming and are front running it now.

3. To further fuel the fire, we could finally see a new U.S. Bitcoin ETF in Q1/Q2 of 2022. (this already happened Dec 2021)

4. We could see a new Bitcoin ATH and blow off top come mid year 2022.

5. China will of course retaliate by shutting down all onshore crypto exchanges, popping the Bitcoin bubble. Once again.  Roll Eyes The bears will then take over. China PBOC will then print yuan like a mofo and bail out any and all Chinese property developers.

You heard it here first. Just doing this for funzies. Typing it here to see how well my prediction plays out.
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January 18, 2022, 05:32:32 PM



I keep waiting for some giant chip fab entity (ie Samsung, Motorolla, Intel, AMD, Nvidea etc) developing a SHA256 ASIC on the down-low and starting to test them... I do not know enough about this tech/market to know if this is a possibility, but my gut thinks so.  But I do not think it is impossible that some chip maker could get a quick ROI testing (Butterfly Labs style) a brand new ASIC.  The financial incentive for this is crazy high.


Isn't it fun to think?  

Imagine Intel has designed and produced a wafer or two of these chips.  Proof of Concept.

And say the chips are a significant magnitude faster than the current crop.  And then imagine them able to make serious money when they are burning them in.  Then the meeting where they say, "We can pay a great deal of the R&D and FAB costs of these by just frontrunning the mining before releasing them.  Should we?".

This is one reason why multi-front ASIC chip development is so important.  One attack vector would be able to produce a chip so powerful that you could use it for a 51% attack or the likes.

I am thinking the time of that possibility might be past us?
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January 18, 2022, 05:55:28 PM
Merited by Welsh (4), El duderino_ (3), fillippone (3), vapourminer (2)

My thoughts are moving to the "we are in a large sideways channel", and have been since the move from 64k to 30k. I think it is therefore very possible that we move back down to near the 30k level, but there will be a lot of stacking on the way by long-term holders and it will only possible with a collapse of the traditional markets. All very possible.


I surely agree that there are decent odds that we could go back down to the lower $30ks... maybe even around 50%.. which is far from guaranteed but surly not zero odds.. and I am thinking shorter-term here, something like 1-3 months, perhaps?, and surely it is not clear how sustainable that kind of going down would be... but there are scenarios of even potentially exceeding the longer term of the range.. such as including some kinds of phenomenon that ends up really attempting to remove some of the froth in the shitcoin space.. with some of the NFT, and various ethereum imitator scamcoin models.. and surely not wanting to suggest that the tail wags the dog... and I am not even suggesting that there is any meaningful froth in Bitcoin, but if there are opportunities to purge froth and to shake some more weak hands who do not believe themselves to be weak hands, then so be it....  ..again.. maybe at best a 50/50 scenario rather than anything that has strong inclinations..

On the other hand,  I will say that framing bitcoin to be in a largely sideways action since May 2021 comes off as both baloney talk and failure/refusal to appreciate the importance of the in-between BTC price movements that really has placed bitcoin in an interesting place in terms of a kind of false start on a trip to the moon in which our current ATH of $69k went ONLY slightly more than 6% above our previous ATH of $64,895...

In any event, describing that whole period as sideways has a kind of misleading flavor to it... and of course, even though I hardly give too many shits about trying to predict short-term BTC price moves because my system just reacts to BTC price movements by selling all the way up to our new high of $64,895.. and then buying all the way back down to $28,800 and then selling all the way up to $69k and buying back again down to our current local low of $39,559, and for sure I never hit any exact tops or bottoms, but surely my system usually hits within $1k or $2k of such top  or bottom.. and buys/sells at several points in between.... relatively small amounts, really... .

There still seem to be needs to appreciate these kinds of up/down happenings for what they are - even if we are not sure about what might happening to be causing such seemingly outrageous ups and downs.. we are not flat.. yet we should be able to appreciate the violence of the ongoing battle, the inevitability of volatility and the confusions about the actual happening of the greatest wealth transfer in history..   Seems like some BTC price dynamics that should not be glossed over by merely asserting that we have been flat for the year..... even though factually true that any of us could have bought BTC for right around the same price as we had been able to buy such BTC a year ago,

Still quite a bit of importance has happened in the past year.....including that the 200-week moving average has moved up more than 100%.. specifically, we have a move from about $8,208 to $19,105 in the past year, which is about 133% Uppity... go chew on the significance of that reality... hahahahahaha

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Another thing is the BTC mining hashrate.. holy fucking shit.. you really want to suggest that bitcoin has been flat in 2021?   Other WO members have been mentioning such hashrate/difficulty adjustments phenomenon.. and really consider the matter.  We had an ATH in hashrate and difficulty adjustment that was reached around May 13, 2021..

>>>
683,424   2021-05-13 01:58:58   25,046,487,590,083 - 25.05 T   + 21.53 %   0x170b3ce9   08 min 14 s   179.25 EH/s
<<<<

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

and then holy shit.. a drop by about 45%.. down to:

>>>>>691,488   2021-07-17 16:32:17   13,672,594,272,814 - 13.67 T   - 4.81 %   0x17149624   10 min 30 s   97.87 EH/s


and 13/14 of the past difficulty adjustments have been positive in order to put current hashrate above the May 13, 2021 levels, and surely already exceeded the ATH in hashrate and going to exceed the ATH in difficulty within the next 2.5 days.... 

>>>>Latest Block:   719306  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   107.7220%  (1611 / 1495.52 expected, 115.48 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26180068974341 and 26262010465283
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.4192% and +7.7554%
Previous Retarget:   January 7, 2022 at 11:40 PM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 11:35 PM  (in 2d 14h 39m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 12:34 AM  (in 2d 15h 38m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 54m 50s and 13d 0h 53m 9s<<<

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Whether we agree that some kind of sponsored state attack might have been happening in bitcoinlandia, we surely have not had flat bitcoin dynamics in the past year.. and framing the matter as flat just comes off as overly simplified.. and having some misleading elements, too... at least from the perspective of this here cat.
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January 18, 2022, 06:01:36 PM


Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 06:11:52 PM

This is one reason why multi-front ASIC chip development is so important.  One attack vector would be able to produce a chip so powerful that you could use it for a 51% attack or the likes.

I am thinking the time of that possibility might be past us?

With the amount of hashrate you would need for a 51% attack you're probably better off just mining. And there isn't much "profit" with this kind of attack to begin with. Doublespend would be fraud (i.e. lawsuits) no matter how you look at it, and you'd need a massive amount of bitcoins to spend. What else? Some FUD (attack!!! run for the hills!!!) + shorting? But that can be done far cheaper, just spread rumors about China or something. Force a hardfork? No different than creating a new shitcoin.
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January 18, 2022, 06:16:01 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

BTC trading at 2x since the ath of 2017
Pretty pathetic price performance if you ask me, especially for the long term holders

I will agree with you on this, bear. That's exactly the reason why I think the bull run is not yet over!  Cool
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January 18, 2022, 06:39:59 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), vapourminer (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

BTC trading at 2x since the ath of 2017
Pretty pathetic price performance if you ask me, especially for the long term holders

I will agree with you on this, bear. That's exactly the reason why I think the bull run is not yet over!  Cool

It has never ended in 13 years.

But eventually it is bound to even out a little...

Wouldn't it be crazy if the price arced up a little while the volatility settled down?

Sort of the middle section of an adoption curve reflected in the price of the asset.

Yeah.  Crazy talk.

One interesting thing about tech adoption curves.  The further we go into new tech, the more aggressive the middle section is.



One of the things that can slow down an adoption curve is need/expense.  Look at air conditioning.  It is not an absolute NEED, and it is expensive to deploy AND maintain.  Same as dishwasher.  But look at electricity.  It is arguably very important, and you do not have to use much of it.

Bitcoin is facilitated by other curves.  Cell phones, internet, computers.  And it is more pure.  And it does not really have a price.  it *IS* the price.  you can store the value of a new set of tires in it just as easily as you can a fleet of commercial aircraft.

I predict the bitcoin adoption curve will be one of the most aggressive yet.  And I think that will also be reflected naturally in the price.
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January 18, 2022, 07:01:27 PM


Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 07:04:14 PM

Thanks Chartbuddy for breaking up my unrelated posts...

Just wanted to point out that volume has gotten fairly thick during this little segment... y'all see that?

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January 18, 2022, 07:08:00 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (11), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/habits-of-highly-effective-hodlers
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January 18, 2022, 07:08:50 PM

One interesting thing about tech adoption curves.  The further we go into new tech, the more aggressive the middle section is.



One of the things that can slow down an adoption curve is need/expense.  Look at air conditioning.  It is not an absolute NEED, and it is expensive to deploy AND maintain.  Same as dishwasher.  But look at electricity.  It is arguably very important, and you do not have to use much of it.

Bitcoin is facilitated by other curves.  Cell phones, internet, computers.  And it is more pure.  And it does not really have a price.  it *IS* the price.  you can store the value of a new set of tires in it just as easily as you can a fleet of commercial aircraft.

I predict the bitcoin adoption curve will be one of the most aggressive yet.  And I think that will also be reflected naturally in the price.

The issue with Bitcoin, is that much like gold, whether or not it is a need (a must have) is entirely depending on a person's mindset.

For example, high inflation affects us all, but only a very small segment of the world population is motivated enough to actually do anything about preserving their wealth. Or even CAN do anything about it. Even in countries where they currently have hyperinflation, you would think that by now everyone there would own a little bitcoin, but they still don't.
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January 18, 2022, 07:24:44 PM
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Explanation
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January 18, 2022, 08:19:32 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), Torque (1)

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg?t=136

I watched that entire video, and it told me exactly nothing about Tether beyond what I either knew or could have guessed about it. Which says more about the uselessness and fraud of Tether than my limited knowledge. They are likely running a fractional reserve scheme (scam?), just like every major bank in the world. The only difference is that no one knows if their collateral has any or enough value to cover their debt load in the case of a major wipe out. I'm guessing not.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

The video did answer this question: none. Which again, was as I surmised all along.

I did watch the whole 36 minute video too.. just like you Torque, and surely there are some interesting points raised by Coffeezilla (the presenter).  I question your terse rendition of the video Torque, even though I admit that there are likely quite a few rehashed arguments that are being presented.   

I cannot even say that there are NOT possible reasons to be concerned about Tether and Bitfinex, but surely my levels of concern are not as high as your concerns seem to be, Torque.  I already appreciate that you love conspiracies and you love to hate on people who are engaging in shady behaviors and even read those kinds of scenarios for the worst.... On a personal level, I have my doubts about whether any new and revelatory facts/logic are being presented that need to be of major concern...

Maybe there is a bit of turn-off when some angles are presented with such seeming drama, which seems to refuse to give much benefit of the doubt to both Tether and Bitfinex in the whole matter?  Surely a painting of each of the involved players as supposed historical scammers with bad characters seems like throwing in some easy-peasy disingenuine arguments...

So the punchlines from the presentation seem to be that Tether is supposedly insufficiently backed, filled with a bunch of disingenuine actors who are largely engaged in Ponzi scheme behaviors and could implode at any moment - taking the rest of bitcoin/crypto with it (or at least dealing a considerable blow to bitcoin/crypto). Another point seems to be that many of us in the bitcoin/crypto space are not taking this seriously enough, yet I am confused regarding what actions we are supposed to be taking?  Demand the auditing of Tether?  lobby for their prosecution?  Surely, there are a lot of governmental actors who would just love to take down tether, but the NY settlements seem to show that even the US Govt does not feel that they have enough ammunition to really take down Tether, and instead seems like settlements just allows for some abilities to have continuing ways to interfere with Tether with ongoing fines and ways to attempt to "keep Tether in check."

I guess I don't really have any problem with the information presented in the video, even though I do believe that Coffeezilla is being a bit curt and cutsie with the real issues in which Tether has provided a lot of liquidity over the years that has allowed a variety of ways for bitcoin (and crypto) to be held, transferred, and onboarded/offboarded, and so governmental hostility to this does seem to be an important part that is just glossed over.. and surely, reflecting on this whole existence of Tether matter, it is quite amazing that Tether has existed for more than 8 years and really become more and more powerful, and even relied upon in various kinds of liquidity ways.. and yeah for sure they are not completely clear about the level of their backing.. and how much they are likely to be engaging in fractional.  I did appreciate that Coffeezilla did at least recognize that in 2018 (or whenever it was) Bitfinex did seem to get duped out of $800 million dollars - and surely, he glossed over that aspect, including that various governments (including the US Govt) may well have been involved (or complicit) in such fucking around with allowing $800 million to get taken from Tether (Bitfinex too, right?).  

I also have some troubles agreeing with Coffeezilla's representations that this may well be the biggest scam, money printing (or unbacked claims) fiasco that has been known to mankind - when it seems that just looking at various recent government and banking behaviors of the past couple of years, there are likely similar (or even worse) kinds of scams going on through governments and banking institutions, so I have some troubles with assertions that Tether/Bitfinex is a worse level of scandal.. and even accepting that there might be some scandalous aspects that relate towards insufficient Tether backings.  Actually, in recent times, I had seen some other reports (I cannot remember from exactly where) arguing/establishing that just from Bitcoin's growth over the past year or two, it is quite likely that Tether/Bitfinex is way better backed than it ever was and likely made up for a lot of their having had been robbed of $800 million in 2018.
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January 18, 2022, 08:30:44 PM

For example, high inflation affects us all, but only a very small segment of the world population is motivated enough to actually do anything about preserving their wealth. Or even CAN do anything about it. Even in countries where they currently have hyperinflation, you would think that by now everyone there would own a little bitcoin, but they still don't.

One of the benefits of making people live paycheck to paycheck, I guess.
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January 18, 2022, 08:41:37 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2022, 10:15:32 PM by Arriemoller
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

Hi guys
I'm feeling better now.
I don't know if it was my arthritis acting up or if I had Omicron, I had muscle and joint aches, headache, slept a lot and had nightly sweatings/hot/cold kind of thing, and that's symptoms that fit both. I also had my knee swelling up again so I had to go to the hospital and empty it and get a cortisone shot, that helped and I also got better over all after that. but in time that would coincide with when a covid infection would be over-ish.
I got bad on January first and didn't feel alright until three days ago.
Had no loss of smell though and no cough to speak of, just a little, so I don't know what I had, but I feel good now.
I will probably not bother to read the backlog, is there anything important I have missed?
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January 18, 2022, 08:49:26 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

So the punchlines from the presentation seem to be that Tether is supposedly insufficiently backed, filled with a bunch of disingenuine actors who are largely engaged in Ponzi scheme behaviors and could implode at any moment - taking the rest of bitcoin/crypto with it (or at least dealing a considerable blow to bitcoin/crypto). Another point seems to be that many of us in the bitcoin/crypto space are not taking this seriously enough, yet I am confused regarding what actions we are supposed to be taking?  Demand the auditing of Tether?  lobby for their prosecution?  Surely, there are a lot of governmental actors who would just love to take down tether, but the NY settlements seem to show that even the US Govt does not feel that they have enough ammunition to really take down Tether, and instead seems like settlements just allows for some abilities to have continuing ways to interfere with Tether with ongoing fines and ways to attempt to "keep Tether in check."

What we can do about it is just not park our capitol in it.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the fed has its tendrils in bitfinex and tether to the root right now.

and that is why even though the NY AG specifically stated there are provable times tether is fractional reserve he would just fine them and ban New Yorkers from using them therefore doing his due diligence.

Remember it was a state attorney general that levied the fines and findings not the FED.
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January 18, 2022, 08:54:13 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (7)

Hi guys
I'm feeling better now.
I don't know if it was my arthritis acting up or if I had Omicron I had muscle and joint aches, headache, slept a lot and had nightly sweatings/hot/cold kind of thing. and that's symptoms that fit both. I also had my knee swelling up again so I had to go to the hospital and empty it and get a cortisone shot, that helped and I also got better over all after that. but in time that would coincide with when a covid infection would be over-ish.
I got bad on January first and didn't feel alright until three days ago.
Had no loss of smell though and no cough to speak of, just a little, so I don't know what I had, but I feel good now.
I will probably not bother to read the backlog, is there anything important I have missed?

Nice to read good news from you again, Arrie!
They didn't check for Covid at the hospital? Strange...
Did you try organic sulphur (MSM) combined with Vitamin C and Glucosamine?
It's pretty effective against swelling and pain in light to moderate cases, i also experienced stronger hair growth after taking MSM for a few weeks.
At start, you could get serious bloating and headache, unless you slowly ramp up the MSM dosage from 1/8g to 1g (double the initial dose every third day) and drink a lot of water. I mean 2-4 liters per day, your body will crave for it, believe me Smiley
Read it up. It's safe unless you don't go over 2g/day or more. Some do 6g daily for a short while and didn't have any problems.

The backlog: We're in the dip of the dip of the dip. I am mainly reading WO since Christmas, came to posting less because of more private reasons, less free time after all.
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January 18, 2022, 09:01:36 PM


Explanation
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