Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?

Good grief.

Bitcoin market is filled with a bunch of chicken shits.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?

Good grief.

I wish I could Bob... King Daddy does what King Daddy wants, and he DGAF...

Price action is currently boring AF, almost a non-action, for sure. Not really worried or upset about it, as real life keeps me VERY busy lately -- can barely keep up with WO.

I believe and expect price UPpity to resume sometime this year. I prefer the organic, slow, ant-like UPpity, rather than an Elon-style, rusty-pipe-length green dildo mega pump. Slow and steady up, until it gets deep into 6-digit territory. That would be a kind of "end-of-the-road" level for many WOers, I'm sure, but then again, that journey never really ends, does it? In any case, 6 digits would be the "fuck you" trigger point for many HoDLers, as 5 digits were in your case, and rightly so! You deserve all the goodness you are getting out of corn. It will come a little later for the rest of us, but it WILL come.

HoDL.

[El duderino_]

May the Ant survive this time

Why….

This time is different.

Merited both!

Not yet different

Maybe the force comes with the next Ant 

[tertius993]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).

You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).

You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

Probably by taking out another loan. That is the difference between BTC and FIAT. It makes sense to just keep borrowing more FIAT to pay off the previous debt as it continues to devalue over time. Try doing that with BTC and see where that gets you!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Made me laugh, but also there are always gonna be haters …. People who are emotionally involved etc

Don’t mind them…

I still like PlanB 

[BitcoinBunny]

I don't believe there is a magic cure for inflation right now.

Everyone will want /NEED a pay increase. You can't just interest rate hike that away in the next few months or even years.
The Russia Ukraine thing is a major problem for Europe and the UK where we get a majority of our gas (and thus electricity also!) from no matter how many fucking windmills you install. If the wind doesn't blow you need gas. See UK electricity mix right now. Majority still gas. You can cut people off from the gas for heating and demand them to get a heat pump (current long term proposal) all you like. The demand for gas via electricity will only increase! Not decrease.




If you look back over last 48 hours the demand for gas vs renewables looks even worse.




I suspect BTC will rally like mental in spring once people realise what inflation really means and when we see small interest hikes have not made a difference.

I just don't think people haven't woken up yet and almost all price action we have seen from retail so far has always been the speculation side / NOT the keep assets safe side.


It's also quite telling what is happening with the crypto top 10 and USD Coin overtaking the shitcoins so easily recently.

And why? Because anything other than Bitcoin IS a fucking shitcoin.

[ivomm]

Yep, the price movement is boring AF in the last 2 months. To stay 30K below the ATH is quite annoying. This is something the new generation of hodlers is hard to get used to. Most, if not all new commers who bought in the 40-69K range have sold on a loss, according to the on-chain analysis by glassnode. Before glassnode was a thing, we only wondered if the hodlers sell that low or there actually exist individuals that sold on a loss. Now it is almost "proven" that many sell on a loss, although it is not competely certain that the movement of bitcoins always means a trade. It is however the only indicator that gives good enough approximation. For the n00bs 2 months of bear market is the end of Bitcoin. They lack the experience and hardened character to hodl through this period. It seems that the first lesson in 2021 from 65K to 30K wasn't learned and the same mistake was made later from 69K to 40K. So, with all short term "hodlers" being completely eliminated and all actual hodlers refusing to sell, this bear run should terminate soon.

On a personal level, I must admit that I didn't do well in the last year. As a relatively new hodler with average buying price 2.5K per coin (thanks to the gpu mining mostly), I was tempted to sell 60% of my stash for average price of 28K for a beach villa, job retirement and mining equipment. However the covid restrictions and other RL accidents prevented me from realising any of these goals. I could not afford to risk and sell more at 60K, so I've missed both tops, unfortunately. So, I've decided to rebuy back the last sold coins on the same price, making the sold part 39% of my stash. The remaining fiat is equivalent to my salary until I retire after 15+ years, so I could spend some of it if the price falls to my average sold level to rebuy more coins back. All this is hard to plan and fulfil, because of emotions, RL issues, etc... Hopefully, I'll manage to handle it well and not sell too much, not to mention sell most of it. God forbid! I don't want to give the false impression that I have tons of coins. Let's say just that I have no theoretical chance of becoming a fish if I DCA until I retire. This makes me very sad, but I'm comforting myself that I have enough to cover my basic needs.  It's just that in my country the expenses and real estate is much cheaper than the rest of the world, at least for now. Another indicator is that my virtual net worth puts me in the list of 900 richest peeps in my country, according to bank deposit stats. Not bad, considering that before Bitcoin, I had no plans of investments and relied only on my salary. The problem is that the medical care is completely missing, which makes me think of moving to another country. Any suggestions - with a good infrastructure, warm climate, food delivery, internet, etc.? Spain, Greece, France, Antigua...?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

[ivomm]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

I started as a small octopus in 2017, grew to medium by 2020, and shrank again to small in 2021.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

I started as a small octopus in 2017, grew to medium by 2020, and shrank again to small in 2021.

Thanks for that.

IMHO, most shrimps and ALL of the other species below dolphins will be "fuck-you" rich in 5-10 years from now (dolphins and above are already there now).

Of course, it all depends on what "fuck-you" rich means to each one of us -- I've given a conservative prediction. It could be sooner... Perhaps, perhaps... 

[El duderino_]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

I started as a small octopus in 2017, grew to medium by 2020, and shrank again to small in 2021.

Then imho you did oversold……

If from little to big octopus…. Then back to little….

Not bad or anything, I just would have sold a smaller %

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I agree that the Tether fud is, in general, fairly silly.

But I do want to say.. I am also not entirely comfortable with some of the trends I see happening with Tether.

There are lot's of two faced "Bitcoin Maxis" not only cozying up with Tether, but are actually using it via Ethereum at the same time of lambasting Vitalic and all the people on twatter with x.eth after their name.

I see a lot of nuance here.  For example, I think I like the idea of using Blockstream's tether on their sidechain more than Eth for structural/scaling reasons.  But I am still somewhat bothered by the tension between using Tether in place of Bitcoin...  by so many people who have preached the "BITCOIN ONLY" gospel from the beginning.

....

But something just seems wrong about these idealists embracing Tether.  

It bugs me.  But I have not worked through all of it yet, I guess...

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg?t=136

The warning has already been noted. Bitfinex volume much larger over the last 3+ months.

And this is another reason I am looking for the nuance.

Some things we know.

1.  Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.  No matter what.  Tether could flick some shit at bitcoin, and it might spook the markets briefly, but it will NOT stick and Bitcoin will survive.

2.  Tether does not threaten Bitcoin.  They do not do the same thing.  And people do not see the mathematical certainty that people are NOT going to store value in a fractionalized synthetic token run by some shell firm on some little island where Calvin likes to hang out.  Not when they can store value in pure math itself.

3.  Tether IS finding significant use cases.  Increasing liquidity.  Rearranging counterparty risk. And facilitating all sorts of Money laundering lol.  But also working as the backbone for systems that move quickly between USD and BTC values.  Don't both Strike and El Salvador use it?

It is very interesting to watch the Federal Reserve stand and gawk as software absolutely DEVOURS them.  Both good software like BTC, and shady crap like ETH and Tether.

There are going to be many explosions.

[cAPSLOCK]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Wowee...

I knew this was happening but it had not smacked me in the face like this 'till now.  Brushing aside the fact the company's other assets make this owning bitcoin by proxy with a discount for risk (and NOT that it is owning bitcoin at all...) the fact it comes out to this number is crazy... 

But it's a legit bet.  Because the people who own this stock ARE joining into a public companies asset structure and POOF.. there it is.