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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25645918 times)
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January 20, 2022, 04:29:19 AM

Sick as a dog, my turn maybe.

get well soon.. dude!
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January 20, 2022, 04:41:57 AM

Sick as a dog, my turn maybe.

get well soon.. dude!

water water water. and more water.

and get the o2 finger meter cheap.

if you drop under 90 o2 and you are elevated heart ♥️ rate like 110 find a doctor.


if you stay at 93-97 o2 and you are elevated heart 💜 rate like 110 you are still fighting it off.

check your temps. good luck
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January 20, 2022, 05:54:15 AM

Sick as a dog, my turn maybe.
Take care man, should go to a doctor nearby if you aren't feeling good.
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January 20, 2022, 06:26:59 AM
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[snip]
Gotta question your judgement when you had been considering that selling 60% of your stash would have even had been a good idea while BTC prices were moving through (above and beyond) it's 2017 ATH and through another zone.
[snip]

Yes, I made a mistake, because I saw the possibility to buy mining equipment that would bring me 3x more coins in the next 2 years than with my current equipment. I owe >80% of my stash to the mining anyway, so such risks are part of my job.  I started buying the gpu's and literally on the next day all shipments from UK stopped. The price of the gpus increased 3x while I was searching for other options.

Of course, there are no real easy ways to know some trade-offs that any of us may well be contemplating when we are in the midst of attempting to figure out how much BTC that we might want to shave up on the way up and whether that is going to be relatively BIG or to stick with more incremental levels.  For sure, the BIGGER we play, the BIGGER the potential pay offs in the event that we get a chance to buy back, and furthermore there can be a lot of complications to figure out trade-offs if there happens to be some kinds of business / or complicated investment decisions that depend upon a variety of considerations that would not be too easily to share in a thread like this or even to lump whether for business, for consumption or for diversification into more straight-forward trade-off considerations that guys might end up weighing .. .and trying to figure out an amount that makes them comfortable too. the price is moving fast, so it is also helpful if you have already thought through some of these considerations.

None of us can step into your shoes ivomm or even understand what your exact weighings might have been without knowing some of the specifics, and if you start to provide too many specifics that might not be good for your OPsec either. ..so how much to say.. how much not to say.

Surely investing into bitcoin related businesses complicates the calculations too.. so none of us can really second-guess you regarding those kinds of matters even though there are some changes in the thoughts about whether it is good to invest in bitcoin mining equipment rather than buying bitcoin directly.. and surely some of the China shut down of hashrate in that jurisdiction in 2021 - provided quite a few surprise windfalls to incumbent miners who were already set up with their equipment, operations and location or close to being set up, but still it may well be questionable whether investing anew in mining is a good decision or would have been a good decision - and so there are likely a lot of factors that are somewhat subjective that would be involved in weighing which way to lean in terms of how much to get into mining versus just buying bitcoin and keeping matters more straight forward.. None of us would really be able to weigh some of your subjective considerations in that direction whether it might be something like status or learning or something else that draws you towards business operations (including tax deductions, perhaps?).

Meanwhile I changed my mind about a villa that I liked and so I decided to rebuy back at least the last sold coins when the price fell to 30K. So I improved my ratio from 60% to 38% sold bitcoins. Hopefully with my current old equipment I will recover another 10% this year. I had to spend about other important stuff.

Probably too many subject matters to try to calculate, so really difficult for me to add this to calculations that I already attempted to assert regarding selling so much while the BTC price is going in the zone of its previous ATH... It seems a pretty big gamble, and surely it could have ended up paying off by either going through with whatever outside of BTC purchases you were contemplating or even if BTC prices ended up dropping back into the mid to lower $20ks.. and surely we did have some pretty unforgivable behavior from BTC during that late 2020 time and even persisting into several months of 2021..... we had a shoot up of the BTC price pretty much from $17k all the way to $42k between November 2020 to January 2021, and ONLY a short correction down to $30k in January 2021 and then a resumption up to $64,895 that took until April to get there (without any real significant corrections) until the correction down to $28,800 a second time that lasted through May/June/July...so yeah, if anyone sold any significant amounts of their BTC in that $17k to $30k arena on the way up in late 2020, they did not have too many opportunities to buy back and mostly would have had to buy back at a loss or break even if they had been lucky, if buying back had been their intention at the time that they sold..

BTC HODLers really gotta appreciate when the sellers get reckt like that and to appreciate more if there are folks who are shorting BTC during that time.

For sure, these kinds of uncontrolled UPpities have happened in bitcoin quite a few times, and it is not always easy to know how much of a run up is going to happen, when it is going to stop happening, and how much it is going to correct back down, and that is part of the reason that I frequently suggest that when any of us are selling our BTC on the way up, we should be selling in such small amounts that we are not intending to buy those BTC back...so there can be risks in either selling to much on the way up or changing our minds about actually wanting to buy back after we had already sold thinking that odds are pretty good that we would have buy back options (that in this case, so far, did not end up playing out in what ended up being a gamble that did not pay off).

Later that year 2021, I nearly lost my father and got myself very ill because of the stress. All this cost more money and nerves. I can't get proper medical treatment here, so I consider moving to another country. And if things continue to be so bad for me, well, I will expand my donations to various children related charities. But let's think positive and hope for something good to happen. Bitcoin is hope after all.

For sure personal crises, emergencies and even health of self and/or family members can exacerbate and complicate matters even further, and some of these emergencies will come several at a time.  For sure we could end up selling larger portions of our BTC stash merely because we do not want to deal with the additional stress that we might feel to be coming partly from some of the extreme volatility of BTC..

....so those remain personal calls regarding what to do in regards to selling higher levels of our BTC than we might have already planned that might not end up lessening our stress .. and could even increase our stress and we end up not feeling good about how our gamble plays had ended up playing out.. and whether we did the right thing or not, we might have felt that we were pressured into it.. and so then the question might just be whether we feel that we can mitigate some of the damages that had come from our actions and/or learn from the situation regarding how we might have handled that situation better.  In the end, there might not be anything that we would have changed in what we had decided to do and how we executed our plan, even though we end up NOT being happy exactly regarding how subsequent unknowns ended up turning out.. and maybe ending with a smaller BTC stash than what we had or even getting to a point that we realize that it is quite likely that we will never be able to achieve the level of our BTC stash that we had or whatever ended up bothering us regarding how we balanced our values.....

And, it seems likely that there are plenty of us in BTClandia who have made a variety of mistakes along our bitcoin journey, and maybe even repeat some of our mistakes over the years - and sometimes we might either be a bit reluctant to admit some of our mistakes or we may well sugarcoat them a bit because we do not want to get into details or we might be a bit embarrassed about them, and in the end, maybe it does not matter a whole hell of a lot... and sometimes sharing them in this thread could help us to work through some of our mistakes somewhat, too.... or sometimes it might not be a good idea to share too many particulars...  ..

Of course, if some of the mistakes are bothering us, it might be good to put some of the information out there or even present the matter as a "friend's issue" or a hypothetical that could have had happened.  

Or we can change some of the numbers around or some of the percentages in order to attempt to preserve opsec and to make the same points without giving some of the details, if we are striving to work through some of our mistakes...and it is also understandable that sometimes we might not want to get into too many details beyond admitting "mistakes were made."..

There are probably not too many of us regular WO participants who are completely exempt from the "mistakes were made" label, especially the longer that we have been in bitcoin and the more adventurous we have attempted to be in terms of how we hold our coins, trying some varying kinds of services and even keeping some money on exchanges or trying some new wallets or lightning network and we might well end up losing some coins (not even getting into shitcoin temptations.. which really should be taken to another thread if wanting to go down the discussion of those kinds of mistakes that were made - or even the supposed all the money made through shitcoin gambles).

Another thing is that some mistakes are greater than others, and surely none of us want to end up in such a grave situation as Mindrust - even though selling large amounts of our stash might sometimes make us feel like mindrust, even if we sold on the way up rather than on the way down.  Some folks end up having to completely start over, and surely that would be more problematic the older that we are.. and even though I do understand that some younger members here are more willing to take higher gambles with portions of their BTC portfolio when they are younger, I still find it to be a problematic practice to be putting too much of the BTC principle at risk - and surely can be a lot less forgiving when we are older... and surely there have been some members here who do not have long timelines in order to take risks in losing too much of their principle...even if they sometimes will want to be somewhat aggressive in terms of still wanting to take some risks... which any of those behaviors are gambles too...and maybe part of the reason that it seems important to be careful regarding how much of our BTC principle that any of us are willing to put at risk .. which is the other side of NOT being too greedy with our plays... not even saying that it is easy to balance these.
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January 20, 2022, 06:43:33 AM
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There are many threads around that is it the end of btc or will it go below $40k and else and this reminds me of bitcoin obituaries once again pooping out from those dumb mouths who doesn't understand a single thing about Bitcoin and keep on repeating their nonsense stuff about it.But on the other side btc don't give a damn fuck about them at all.



You see it's just a matter of fact that after one year the same price levels hit us hard and we are busy printing sorrow messages but who are panic selling contributes to the worse situations even more.

Quote
It always makes me laugh how quick people are to declare bull market over and the bitcoin bubble popped out.

Usually it comes from lack of experience and understanding of these markets combined with short term mindset.

Bitcoin will never die.Everytime it has been written off throughout the history it has come even more stronger.Hashrates are all time high, transaction volumes are at all time High and number of wallets are at all time high.Price aside bitcoin has never been as powerful it is today.

This time last year we all were popping champagne and browsing for the super yachts when bitcoin broke $40k for the first time.Now we are at same point just a year later and people are bearish?

Maybe the crazy gains we are used to seeing in the markets has given new investors unrealistic expectations but the fact is if you zoom out we have been in a bull run market for 13 years straight

That's some harsh reality which we all need to understand and calmly hold our coins because it has grown each time hard it has dumped.In 2017 it lost most of it's value touching its ATH around $19800 and after that it was below $5k also but has it not recovered then? What price levels we currently stand out at?

Here is chart which matters the most according to me :


See i am not too technical trader but believes in bitcoin to my possible extent and these charts don't lie which clearly indicates All time lows are also rising graphs which means it will surely reach new ATH this year.Just have faith.

Don't compare btc with your shitcoins.It has potential to recover fast.
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January 20, 2022, 07:28:06 AM
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Sick as a dog, my turn maybe.

 Hope you get better quickly!

https://twitter.com/i/events/1483290913858281474

January 18, 2022
Cannabis compounds prevented Covid infection in a lab study
The 2 compounds commonly found in hemp -- called cannabigerolic acid, or CBGA, and cannabidiolic acid, or CBDA -- were identified during a chemical screening effort as having potential to combat coronavirus, researchers from Oregon State University said.


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35007072/

The Golden Ratio Multiplier

BTC Price should be: $145k



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/golden-ratio-multiplier/

If China wouldn't have pulled out its dick prematurely, we would have been there already.
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January 20, 2022, 08:00:03 AM

Quote
It always makes me laugh how quick people are to declare bull market over and the bitcoin bubble popped out.

Usually it comes from lack of experience and understanding of these markets combined with short term mindset.

Bitcoin will never die.Everytime it has been written off throughout the history it has come even more stronger.Hashrates are all time high, transaction volumes are at all time High and number of wallets are at all time high.Price aside bitcoin has never been as powerful it is today.

This time last year we all were popping champagne and browsing for the super yachts when bitcoin broke $40k for the first time.Now we are at same point just a year later and people are bearish?

Maybe the crazy gains we are used to seeing in the markets has given new investors unrealistic expectations but the fact is if you zoom out we have been in a bull run market for 13 years straight

From where is this quote?



That's some harsh reality which we all need to understand and calmly hold our coins because it has grown each time hard it has dumped.In 2017 it lost most of it's value touching its ATH around $19800 and after that it was below $5k also but has it not recovered then? What price levels we currently stand out at?

You are already suggesting numbers that stand out, and we are not likely in the same place....   We know where we are at, and it does not look the same as those numbers that you are providing above.  We have $17k to $64,895 in late 2020 early 2021.  We have a correction to $28,800.. that more or less lasted May/June/July then we have a return to $69k and a so far return to $39,559.  Doesn't look the same to me as the numbers that you are providing.. at least not so far.

Here is chart which matters the most according to me :


Bottoms are nice for sure..even though I doubt that king daddy gives too many shits about calendar years... but it is still interesting to see those numbers.


See i am not too technical trader but believes in bitcoin to my possible extent and these charts don't lie which clearly indicates All time lows are also rising graphs which means it will surely reach new ATH this year.Just have faith.

I would hardly call about a 55% chance as "surely reach new ATH"... at least that is the number that I currently have assigned to it as of December 16.. and not really sure if there is any data to cause me to change my number.. especially to make it more likely than what it was on December 16... if anything that 55% may have gone down a few percentage points.. not that I am having any kind of exact measure upon what kinds of probability assignments would be more reasonable.. SOMA.. (as the phrase has been adopted)  to the best of my abilities when putting fingers up to the wind.. and wondering if I am standing in the best spot for getting the best measurements or not...

Don't compare btc with your shitcoins.It has potential to recover fast.

Fuck shitcoins.. I don't know why there is any need to mention them, unless you want to discuss some kind of possible consideration of froth purgening.. whether it is likely and is it going to have any kind of hold on king daddy price dynamics.  Historically we have seen both directions.. we have seen shitcoins go along with king daddy and a few times we saw the opposite... one of the reasons to love April 2019 to June 2019 so greatly..... that was a mere 3.3x.. but it was still fun when it happened.... would be a bad thing to see something like that again.. even if the context is slightly different at this time, but still could possibly be in the cards, and I can think of some scenarios that could cause it.. but don't really want to get too stuck into any kind of thoughts of shitcoins since they do tend to cause my head to hurt more than it otherwise would hurt.


The Golden Ratio Multiplier

BTC Price should be: $145k



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/golden-ratio-multiplier/

If China wouldn't have pulled out its dick prematurely, we would have been there already.

Why blame China?  and get distracted by thoughts that if x,y or z had not happened.. blah blah blah.. we would be at a million blah blah blah...   we don't know that.  Do we... and still Fuck China, fuck elon.. fuck doge coin.. and fuck ethereum and NFTs.. we should not be giving too many of shits about these things that are out there.. and King daddy is going to do what it is going to do when it is ready.. Oh by the way, we could blame futures, too.. fuck futures.. but they still exist.. whatcha gonna do about them except take them into account, wait it out, perhaps, and hope that at some point (when who knows?) some of the folks playing around with those kinds of naked short financial tools against bitcoin get their asses handed to them...

These variety of single excuses are what they are, no?  Let's blame covid and the government reaction too.. right??   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes   does bitcoin give very many shits.. tick tock, next block..every 10 minutes.. developers developing, miners mining and also increasing their hashrate to such an extent that it is going to cause the difficulty level to go up by nearly 10% (yeah 9.5%.. whatever) in the next 18 hours....

>>>>>>Latest Block:   719591  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   109.6318%  (1896 / 1729.42 expected, 166.58 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                            
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 26717346191291 and 26726491662849
Next Difficulty Change:   between +9.6237% and +9.6612%
Previous Retarget:   January 7, 2022 at 11:40 PM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:09 PM  (in 0d 18h 14m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:16 PM  (in 0d 18h 20m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 18h 28m 49s and 12d 18h 35m 5s<<<<<<

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Incentives seem to be working quite well in bitcoinlandia, and these matters take time in terms of if BTC price is going to go up or down, even if they seem to be outside of the schedule that king daddy was "supposed to be" on... ideas underpinning stock to flow are not dead either.. even if King Daddy may or may not comply with it, even in the next year.. no guarantees.. whatever.....

King daddy gives no fucks about some kind of supposed schedule except tick tock the next block coming about every 10 minutes, and if it does not happen that way, then difficulty will adjust every two week (every 2016 blocks).. tick tock tick tock...  .. some govt going to shut it down?  Then where is it going to go? tick tock.. tick tock.. blocks are still coming out...last time I checked (though admittedly I am not a very technical person.. #nohomo)
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January 20, 2022, 08:20:57 AM

Buddy sandwich.


Go up you fuck!!!!!

I am not even joking.   Sad Sad




Actually, I am starting to think that buddy might well be somehow connected with bitcoin, and gives no fucks regarding my orders/requests/demands.    Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry
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January 20, 2022, 08:30:14 AM

Jay, i don't blame China for the bans, it just pulled a lot of volume off the table. I see this as a consequence, i'm not bitter about it.
We're just more early again, i have no problem with that, as a hodler.   Smiley
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Jay, i don't blame China for the bans, it just pulled a lot of volume off the table. I see this as a consequence, i'm not bitter about it.
We're just more early again, i have no problem with that, as a hodler.   Smiley

I stand by my earlier post..and for sure, I was responding to the ideas contained therein rather to any specific person - except perhaps sometimes seeing some seemingly single explanations for what's going on in bitcoinlandia (its supposed failure to currently be at $145k.. blah blah blah) has some tendencies to grate upon me a wee bit?

Of course, if we have been accumulating and HODLing and erroring on the side of preparing for UP more than we are preparing for DOWN.. then we are likely going to be o.k... even if more down ends up happening before UP.

For sure when we are within $2k striking distance of our $39,559 local bottom, there are a lot of bears with hard-ons.. but that still does not mean that they are going to be successful to achieve more down... seen variations of this theme play before, and I am not even saying that I have any answers except that the longer that our lillie fiend exists the more difficult it is going to be for the various bearwhales, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners, fence sitters etc to keep it from going up... so better be adequately and sufficiently prepared for UP (not even talking to you specifically OOM). even if you happen to have some level of down preparations too.
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January 20, 2022, 12:29:15 PM

Four is enough buddy, next time you try to post four charts in a row at least make sure they show pleasant numbers.

Somebody make that guy a sandwich please!
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