Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLrnkK2YEcE

This is like when you fall asleep in front of the tv and your dreams start going on along with whatever's on.

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[Hueristic]

Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would?

I wasn't talking about the nuke odds, only about the odds of uniting for or against Putin if the situation in Russia gets really dire.

As we've seen recently and not just recently, things Putin says have little to do with reality. He may launch or not launch the nukes for any reason or no reason at all. Trying to appease him, or to guess what he'll do next - doesn't work.

And using a last resort nuclear financial option has a lot to do with reality? Logic being taking someones money and bringing financial collapse is not a declaration of war? Kinda weak if that's the best we're playing with

Oh stop saying financial attacks are "nuclear", your hyperbole is sickening.

[marcus_of_augustus]

.... it's totally delusional to believe stealing people's money and interfering with their ability to trade is going to bring about peace

... this is exactly how every other major conflict begins, ultimately this is about a failing fiat financial system that Western elites do not want to admit to or even acknowledge (putin and ukraine are symptoms not the root of the problem)

... after WWII, they said 'let this never happen again' and set up Bretton Woods .... USA defaulted on its gold debts when it trashed Bretton Woods in 1971

... bad money begets trade imbalances beget currency crises beget currency wars begets trade wars begets hot wars

... this is as old as humanity itself, without peaceful fair trade there will be no peace

... when goods stop crossing borders, troops start crossing borders

... can't believe europe got sucked into this old ruse again, but there it is

[DaRude]

And using a last resort nuclear financial option has a lot to do with reality? Logic being taking someones money and bringing financial collapse is not a declaration of war? Kinda weak if that's the best we're playing with

If it was done out of the blue that wouldn't be nice. But the war was declared by Putin. That's the reality. If you have a way to stop him I'm sure the world is listening.

Any side that raises stakes up to nuclear (financial) options and pushes escalations to real nuclear war is fully retarded in my book.

[JayJuanGee]

One interesting conclusion from this is that fiat money really has no value if someone can switch your money/assets off any time they want (even with justification).
You can breathe air and drink water that you have around you, but you cannot use money, which is an essential life commodity.
Interestingly, when on a gold standard, gold was universal currency, even for enemies.
Not sure what to make of it, but it is now clear that China realistically has no money (apart from their gold reserves, probably).
I am not prepared to say that bitcoin is such currency yet, maybe not due to low (currently) acceptance.

Of course, bitcoin has not come even close to having a kind of universal accepted status because 95%+ of the world has no fucking clue how to use it, even long time bitcoiners.  I am not even sure if it would be appropriate to blame long term bitcoiners for not knowing how to use bitcoin because to some extent there needs to be practice using it.. and maybe some of the El Salvadorians are going to become the "how to use bitcoin" experts.

We are learning.. and the space is evolving, and we are hearing about some Ukranians who are learning about how to use bitcoin, and maybe the Russians will be learning too.. and maybe the Chinese will realize that it may well be better to allow some bitcoin infrastructure to continue to evolve in their jurisdiction... and for sure, there seems to be ongoing love hate from a variety of jurisdictions, which might be some of the tension that comes out when there are realizations that bitcoin is being used by your enemy and there is nothing that you can do about it... ..

Is everything good for bitcoin so long as we have tick tock the next block every 10 minutes?.. just hearing that some of the central money systems have gotten more draconian and aggressive in their use of widespread electronic freezing can inspire some learning about whether bitcoin could end up providing some other option.. even if somewhat limited.

[DaRude]

Ok so we got the odds, now on to figuring out the prize. Upside is easy, Putin is toppled Russia is a shithole. But downside is...nuclear war? The best our diplomacy can come up with is lets use a nuclear financial option on a 69yr Putin, and hope really hard he doesn't take it as a declaration of war as he said he would?

I wasn't talking about the nuke odds, only about the odds of uniting for or against Putin if the situation in Russia gets really dire.

As we've seen recently and not just recently, things Putin says have little to do with reality. He may launch or not launch the nukes for any reason or no reason at all. Trying to appease him, or to guess what he'll do next - doesn't work.

And using a last resort nuclear financial option has a lot to do with reality? Logic being taking someones money and bringing financial collapse is not a declaration of war? Kinda weak if that's the best we're playing with

Oh stop saying financial attacks are "nuclear", your hyperbole is sickening.

What is SWIFT? The 'nuclear option' for sanctioning Russia

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/ukraine/what-is-swift-financial-system-ukraine-russia-sanctions/507-5cb9dd63-5d79-4591-973f-b26d1363c7bd

Biden and western Europe’s Russian sanctions backed off the ‘nuclear option’ of kicking it off SWIFT. Here’s why they got cold feet

https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/swift-sanction-russia-invade-ukraine/

Why SWIFT is the financial 'nuclear option' when it comes to punishing Putin

https://financialpost.com/news/why-swift-is-the-financial-nuclear-option-when-it-comes-to-punishing-putin

What is SWIFT and why it's being called the 'nuclear' option for Russian sanctions

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-is-swift-and-why-its-being-called-the-nuclear-option-for-russian-sanctions/ar-AAUlPqT

etc etc etc right my hyperbole 

[Hueristic]

etc etc etc right my hyperbole 

edit: your above response is adequate.

This reminds me of when my 5 year old nephew came home and told me his friends were going to war.

I explained to him then and someone needs to explain to these fucktards now that using those terms lightly is a fools mistake that can in turn lead to them in reality.

And using them to describe minor irritants desensitizes people to their actual horror.

[NeuroticFish]

Somebody's selling cheap. Again.

[Toxic2040]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

By the way... have you guys ever heard about this thing called bitcoin?

For sure, we cannot really be sure if really dire consequences could cause bitcoin to underperform and even to crash worse than historical levels.

In the past days, I did make some adjustments to my BTC orders in an attempt to continue to account for various uncertainties regarding which way the BTC price might go.

Yeah there has been doom and gloom, and still we have not quite breached below the 100-week moving average which is currently at about $32k, and arguably the 100-week moving average would be the bottom for any bull market correction.. so then the claim seems to be that we might no longer be in a bull market - and even to make this more clear is the uncertainties of the global macro-situation.. so therefore, we have to consider the 200-week moving average (which is currently at $20k).  

My most recent adjustment to my various buy/sell orders has been to keep my buy orders down to the 200-week moving average, but for some of my own cashflow expectations/needs, to consider that I would be able to remove the lowest of my buy orders as the 200-week moving average will be expected to continue to go up... with the passage of time.

I am also considering that I might want to maintain whatever low ball buy orders that I have to remain at least 10% below the 200-week moving average in case there could be short-term spikes below such level.  With this, currently, I am not creating any BTC buy orders below $20k, but I am currently considering keeping my buy orders down to $20k until the 200-week moving average moves at least above $22k - which would be maintaining 10% below the 200-week moving average, and sure it could take a month or two or more for the 200-week moving average to move above $22k.. and of course, the higher the current spot price is above the 200-week moving average, then the faster the 200-week moves up.. and the opposite is true too.   

Of course, even my own financial and psychological well-being is not going to be feeling too comfortable if the BTC spot price were to start to get anywhere close to reaching the 200-week moving average (which would also cause the 200-week moving average to move up more slowly than it's current overall pace which has been historically overall around 75% per year), and even visiting and revisiting BTC spot prices around the 100-week moving average is depressing enough... but seems to me that it is better to continue to attempt to prepare for either direction ahead of time.. and even for potentially dire scenarios or even scenarios that are considered to be less likely, and hopefully the preparations are somewhat reasonable and personally -ailored to each of our own situations.

I don't really like talking about DOWNity BTC price scenarios... and our current red candle dipping from $38,800 to $37,500 in the past 45 minutes (as I type this post) is not comfortable either...

[BobLawblaw]

#LNMETA

Having a much easier time handling the node setup this time around. Even finding that I've managed to somehow strike a balance between c-otto and ln.nicehash doing their back and forth deal - Had to set the ln.nicehash fees to something outrageous, as they are a massive liquidity drain. Very surprised to see traffic starting to flow back my way.

cAPSLOCK is offering some very active inbound liquidity (dude, check your nodes, both are down), as are some other folk who have connected to me, and even transacting at my default 1000/250 rates upon connecting - Not going to complain AT ALL.

So far, since getting back on this ride, with a different strategy, I'm happy to report I'm pulling in on average an S9 in mining fees per day, and that is with 100% organic hand-management of each channel.

Spoke to Rick more about "solving the problems" I'm wanting to solve, and we recognized it's a script that's going to need to be able to fire off after every transaction, and how to reasonably deal with the asynchronous state of how LN works, and overcoming those issues (eg: If we're presently evaluating the node state after a transaction, and we get another transaction, do we interrupt the current script, or let it finish? Performance related problems etc etc)

Anyway, lower priority now. Lots of work to be done on the ranch kinda thing, and I'm able to hand-manage the node in this configuration with minimal stress.

[marcus_of_augustus]

... SWIFT was set up after Bretton Woods gold-backed (low-trust) system was trashed by nixon, SWIFT is essentially a centralised trust model messaging system for fiat settlement initiation .... think of a1970's tech insecure, trust-based, centralised shitcoin version of bitcoin for global interbank messaging and initiating settling of trades

... we are witnessing the beginning of the end of SWIFT, if they cut Russia off, they will cut anybody off. Cororally to that is the Nash equilibrium that underpins SWIFT is broken and any/all bad actors are no longer disincentivised from attacking the big, fat insecure target that the globe uses for interbank settlements

[Paashaas]

[Toxic2040]

daily and weekly moving averages

dyor

D


W

stronghands

[OutOfMemory]

Somebody's selling cheap. Again.

Yeah. To me. Again  

sleep well, fellas

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Whoever designed that Y axis needs a slap. In fact the price labeling is fucked up all over the chart. Is this someone that's trying to present themself as professional?

Edit: I thought this was going to be a kid but this Bianco guy is old enough to know better.

[cAPSLOCK]

cAPSLOCK is offering some very active inbound liquidity (dude, check your nodes, both are down), as are some other folk who have connected to me, and even transacting at my default 1000/250 rates upon connecting - Not going to complain AT ALL.

I have been running on a 16GB SD card since the beginning a couple years ago.  That is becomming not quite enough anymore.  So I moved the node over to a 128GB card.

Once the migration was done the bitcoind daemon is not reliably starting.  *sigh*

I have rebuilt the thing a couple times, and each time it's the same... so for NOW I just am bring it up manually after a reboot.  And voila, it's working like a charm.

So you should see my node again now.  Hopefully.  Though I still have some work to do to understand why the damn thing is not coming up after a reboot... seems almost like tyhere is a window of time where the daemon's pid file (stored on the HDD) cannot be written at first...  Anyway.  I will deal with this later.  Now it's time for a nap.

[Richy_T]