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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25639395 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (168 posts by 4 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Arriemoller
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January 22, 2022, 03:05:58 AM

…..

Saying it's nonsense doesn't make it so, disprove the claims or get the fuck out of our thread.

As a general rule, it’s the job of the person who makes the claims to prove them true.
Not the job of the person who calls the claims nonsense to disprove them.
I can’t disprove the claim there’s an almighty invisible sky fairy living in the heavens.
But I still call the claim nonsense anyway.

Eh, no. He provided links to his sources, sources that can not immediately be discarded as crackpots.
If bananaunana, whoever that little prick is, claims that it's nonsense he will have to prove that by, for example, find a source that debunks Marcuses sources.

I did it. At least 5-6 his last posts I fact-checked were utter crap. All made up by *cough* anti-v *cough*. Also links to proof were provided. It's not enough?  Cool

No actually, old claims being wrong doesn't automatically mean that new claims are.
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January 22, 2022, 03:06:37 AM
Merited by OROBTC (1)




I bought a little early today at ~$38,500.  Will HODL.

I hope I can summon the discipline to buy @DCA as JJG always suggests.

Based on the Stonk Market, I hope it's not going "to be one of those weekends"..

From what I understand of your situation, I am not sure if DCA'ing would be the correct term because of course, you have already said that you had been shaving off pretty decently sized profits on the way up, so in that sense you are trying to figure out when to buy back and perhaps how much to buy back.  Sure, it could be that you are considering spreading out your buying back over a period of time in order that you might be able to take advantage of ongoing BTC dips, to the extent that they continue... so of course, each of us are engaging in our own particular hybrids.

Another way that you could potentially be employing a kind of DCA strategy would be if you had come across some extra cashflow, and you are considering the difference between merely lump sum investing with that extra cashflow or perhaps spreading out the buys - which surely would be a kind of DCA conversion of that value from cash (or whatever it is) into bitcoin.

For sure, I tend to preach DCA quite frequently because it seems that many times we have an audience of peeps in this thread who are still working towards reaching their BTC accumulation targets, yet from my thinking, once you reach your targets you would transition into more of a maintenance stage.. and perhaps even liquidation stage at some even later date.  

When guys have been into BTC for a while, they develop their own particular variations of such strategies, and it can get confusing to figure out where they are at when they seem to be bouncing around between strategies.. so then there could be some questions about whether they are emphasizing trading or HODL...

I don't really want to be stalking you, Oro.. but I recall you selling pretty big chucks all the way up from $14k to $50k.. and sure, from time to time, I would be thinking how the fuck could you still be selling, aren't you going to run out?  So sure, here comes a time when you can buy some back, provided that you sold some higher than the price you are buying back, and for sure part of the key in being ahead of even some of those larger swing kinds of trades would be to wait for the price to come to you.. .which seems to have been more difficult for guys who had been selling BTC in mid to late 2020.. and then many of them have not been able to buy back lower than $30k (at least not for very long), and it is not easy to say if they might get another chance this time around.. For sure, for some of us, the BTC prices seem to be visiting lower territories than many of us thought to be within the realms of reasonable possibilities.

How long is it going to stay down here?  Will it go lower?  

Hey, for sure I was not wedded to $40k as a floor.. but still breaking below is not any kind of comfortable place to be because $40k was already a 41% correction area, and so now, we have reached so far lows down to $35,423 within the last 7 hours. which would be approaching a 49% correction arena....so far.... so far.. are we done yet?

By the way, I had 5 buy orders fill in the last 24 hours from $39k down to $35k, and I have had about enough of that... ..
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January 22, 2022, 03:27:48 AM
Merited by suchmoon (1)

Still, you should buy when it starts going back up, NOT while it is going down.
I don't know about bitcoin (perhaps it is unique), but buying any other asset when it is going down is a sure path to ruin..you just never know when it is going to stop.
Well, if you mechanically DCA, maybe OK, especially for indexes, but then you shouldn't increase or decrease your DCA-ing based on your price perception.
The latter could be erroneous.
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January 22, 2022, 03:42:19 AM

... who's out to get me specifically? do you have evidence for that?



... why are you here if it is a shithole?

I don't have "somewhere else" to go. Don't be like me, get out while you can.
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January 22, 2022, 03:44:44 AM
Last edit: January 22, 2022, 04:07:56 AM by d_eddie
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

…..
Saying it's nonsense doesn't make it so, disprove the claims or get the fuck out of our thread.

As a general rule, it’s the job of the person who makes the claims to prove them true.

+1 WOsMerit

The original point of disagreement was brought up by our nice neighbor - no, not Flanders.

Top Scientists conspired to cover up lab leak investigation

Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

I could care less about the "death jab" tinfoil talk, which is perhaps more suited to a different thread - such as Bob's.

However, I have read the leaked emails on the Telegraph (redacted) . Do we remember the "inspection" in Wuhan? Obfuscated by a cloud of locals, it boiled down to little more than a farce. Most of us have a clue about Bayes' Rule, and those who don't can look it up ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem ). An old, intuitive hypothesis can then be dressed in more rigorous formulation. With a little imagination to fill in some cinematic detail, just give Netflix and HBO the time to figure out who gets to do it first.



Bat caves, far away
An underpaid janitor
Corona ran free


#haiku

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January 22, 2022, 04:01:24 AM


Explanation
d_eddie
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January 22, 2022, 04:07:14 AM



Try and make it spot - backed by real corn for a change, Larry?
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January 22, 2022, 04:51:33 AM

Raoul Pal is an even bigger imbecile than I thought he was after he started his nonsense ETH to $40K shite 4-5 months ago:



He has 1 BTC?

Literally less than 99% of us in WO?

Why did ANY crypto Youtuber ever invite this absolute fraud onto their channels?

He never believed in BTC at all it seems to me. He is more concerned with being liked on Twitter / YouTube.

What a fucking douche.

There's lots of these people. They're the kind who would of sided with the Nazis because it was a good trade.

There might be a preference to see the actual tweet link and the context.  I cannot find it by searching around...

For sure, I am familiar with some of the thoughts of both of those guys, and surely Greg Foss is a recent entrant into bitcoin who is quite vocal about BTC being a long-term play.  

Raoul Pal seems to be more of an opportunist willing to go anywhere that might be profitable in the short to medium term.. and he does seem to believe that ethereum and some of that crap built around ethereum are longer term plays.. but it is unclear with him too regarding how long he might stay in a trade.., and does it really matter to any of us who don't want to get involved in ethereum anyhow, and surely might question how some of this trades have been going lately if he is focused so much upon Ethereum.. and yeah, Pal does spend quite a bit of time bashing on bitcoiners who do not appreciate the supposed values in ethereum.. and surely many of us consider that either Pal is going to get burnt pretty badly or at least others who are following him may well get burnt pretty badly..

I have heard Pal speak before, and surely he does seem to be a kind of trader who hedges so that he would be largely prepared if trades move against him... but yeah, seems like a lot of wasted brainpower to a lot of us bitcoiners who have trouble considering when the rug might get pulled in ethereum and are they going to keep their stupid-ass rube goldberg machine going... and if so for how long?

... so my CIA outing post was deleted by the "moderator" ... infofront are we a controlled operation here now? ... just be good to know then I can go somewhere else, thnx.

They're definitely out to get you. And "somewhere else" sounds much nicer than this shithole, you should do that.

Quote
suchmoon
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... who's out to get me specifically? do you have evidence for that?

... why are you here if it is a shithole?

I doubt that infofront is deleting those kinds of political or conspiracy theory posts, and I had seen posts from suchmoon previously suggesting that we had some kind of objective to stay on topic in this thread.. which surely is not the case... so maybe someone reported your post.. which seems like the mods should have just left the post if it had happened to have been reported for something like off topic or a conspiracy or whatever... that would not be sufficient to delete it..

In other words, I cannot really see any problem with what you might have posted, if you are referring to the substance that you linked above... not sure if i need to repost it.. but even if it seems too conspiratorial.. that seems like a BIG so what, at least in terms of topics that we might entertain in this thread... .. and I think that we had discussed that most things can have some connections to bitcoin.. including some of the various political topics.. even if we might not agree about some of the places that some guys might go with their discussion.. ..

For example, if your way of presenting might not have been sufficiently related to bitcoin because that does not seem to be a requirement in these here parts, unless infofront were going to get into those kinds of sortings of substance.. .which I thought that the only kinds of substance that infofront would have been sorting would have been the obvious trolls, shitcoiners and if you were providing topics just to distract from our talking about bitcoin .. which is another way of describing a kind of troll... but maybe we are not seeing enough of infofront, and mods are getting reports.. but again.. this thread does not even seem to have a regularly assigned mod - because the mods would likely ONLY get involved with very egregious rule breaking such as threats or maybe OPsec type violations or maybe ban evasion or somethings that are more egregious like that.
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January 22, 2022, 04:52:50 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

...

JJG #603621

I started my real sales (joining Gemini to do so) in Jan 2021, I sold in small pieces from ~$40,000 down to some $30,000, up to that local peak of ~$64,000, down to $40,000, some up near the ATH of ~$66,000 and small amounts afterwards.  Average: some $42,000 and change (so not the best timing, it's all on my spreadsheet for the IRS).  Long term gains.  Smiley

In retrospect, it looks like I sold a bit too much, so I decided this year that if/when the price went below my 2021 average sale amount, that I would buy a smidge.  I'd like to get my BTC balance a little bit higher, so if we go down, I will buy poco-a-poco until I feel like I'm done.

This is actually pretty similar to what I did back in 2017 and 2018, I sold bits off (actually I traded BTC for gold, the only way to easily capture my gains at that time for me) as BTC was running up hard, and a bit on the downslope after the 2017 peak.  I did buy later, in 2018 and subsequent years, as the price went down in the Crypto Winter.  THIS time I may have jumped the gun re buying (too soon?), but so what.

As I have written before, BTC has been extremely good to my family.  I will have a nice Cap Gain tax for our buds there at .gov.

So, it's all good.  My "DCA methodology" is not really that, but fairly similar, similar enough.  I have no idea how long it will/may take for me to start selling again, check with me once we reach, say $80,000...  If it works out like 2017/2018 and 2021, then great.  If it doesn't, my gains are still far more than I invested.  And much of those gains are already locked up for our two very young grandsons.


Edited for clarity

Edit 2.  Yes, by happy chance I recently did get a monetary gift, that made my buying decision a little easier.
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January 22, 2022, 05:01:23 AM


Explanation
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January 22, 2022, 05:03:44 AM
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...

m_of_a

One of these days you're going to have to tell us what that equation is...  I checked a couple of math sites awhile back, wasn't at any of them, similar ones, but....

https://www.wolframalpha.com/

Here goes. Doxed.







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January 22, 2022, 05:17:29 AM



People with balls of steel

Good night sleep tight.

Don’t got them balls of steel, neither of diamond or….

I got myself balls of Bitcoin….  Grin

Orange ones? Man you need to see a doctor asap!  Grin

Exactly..!!!!!


 the dude is taking this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie too far. 












(again)......







 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


In times like this I always like to look at the order books. The same number of coins can move us either to $30k or to $70k - a new ATH. That should be comforting.



Haha yeah it should be... but somehow it's not...  Grin

For sure.. there is way more going on in terms of BTC price dynamics rather than just looking at the how many orders you can see on the order books.

Purchased my $50 dca and $200 dip

These 36k numbers may allow me to move out of the crab status and into Octopus a year faster than planned for.


I personally sense that 10 BTC should be entering into entry-level fuck you status around mid to late 2025.. .. of course, that is a ballpark idea that continues to need to be monitored...and of course, there are some personal customization regarding what would be fuck you status and how to treat it based on your personal factors, including perhaps your specific elderly timeline.

All 2021 taxes paid in full.

Still waiting for my 2020 refund check I will get a lot of dip with it.

Looks a lot like 2018 and that means get ready for rising difficulty and dropping prices.

I wonder about that... I suppose that we will see in the coming 1-2 months if there is any kind of sustainable recovery from here... sometimes I have some difficulties outlining parameters that would cause me to consider that we might have moved out of our current bull market...

Of course, our current correction down to 49% is not a very comfortable feeling to be saying that is just another one of those weird corrections.. blah blah blah... .. but still seems premature to say that we are in the early stages of a bear market, even though a lot of peeps are currently saying that... and .. gosh.. am I really going to have to update my December 16 post with Down scenario contemplations?    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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January 22, 2022, 05:35:08 AM

Expect price reversal from $31k.
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January 22, 2022, 05:48:37 AM

...

m_of_a

One of these days you're going to have to tell us what that equation is...  I checked a couple of math sites awhile back, wasn't at any of them, similar ones, but....

https://www.wolframalpha.com/

Here goes. Doxed.


[edited out]




Excellent, d_eddie!
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January 22, 2022, 05:50:30 AM

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/the-impact-of-bitcoin-on-war
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January 22, 2022, 06:01:31 AM


Explanation
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January 22, 2022, 06:02:24 AM
Last edit: January 22, 2022, 08:11:32 AM by Paashaas

Expect price reversal from $31k.


Weekly RSI it is not yet at 2020 Covid crash level, it is possible.
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January 22, 2022, 06:02:24 AM

As JJG says you are not prepared for uppity.

This is a good chance to do exactly that.

Something is wrong with your statement, philip.


For sure, people get nervous when the BTC price is moving down a lot... even your post from earlier, you are suggesting that wwe are in a kind of early 2018 period, and you even said that you expect the BTC prices to continue to go down.. so with that, then why would you buy now and why not just wait for the price to go lower?

I do recognize when we get a lot of down momentum, we cannot really know when the down is going to stop... so sure, I do not mind just continuing to buy on the way down, because you never know when it is going to reverse.. yet it seems that if I thought that the price was going to continue to go down, then I might just wait.. and I hate doing that, and that is one of the reasons for just ongoing DCAing rather than trying to figure out how much further is the price going to go down.. or when it might stop going down.

Looks a lot like 2018 and that means get ready for rising difficulty and dropping prices.

Indeed.  The 4-year cycle didn't play out exactly like the previous 2, but it certainly rhymed.  No reason to expect we won't see a long slide down to $10K over the next 2-3 years as a result.  I hope not, but that can't be ignored.

hahahahaha

Maybe since both of you are miners, you are both deluded into thinking that bitcoin gives shits about the hashrate?

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


I will agree with you that $10k is possible.. but holy fucking shit, you likely have less than a 5% chance to get to the 200-week moving average which is currently around $19,200 and it is moving up pretty damned fast... so seems pie in the sky to both be considering prices that are more than 50% lower than the 200-week moving average.. and maybe we could give you the benefit of the doubt that you are refering to a possible spike rather than sustainable.. but still overly pie in the sky bearish, for sure.   

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

I will grant you that the 200-week moving average may well move up more slowly than it did in 2021 (it moved up 132% in 2021 - from $8,282 on January 20, 2021 to $19,200 on January 20, 2022)... ... so yeah.. that is a bit much of a move up of the 200-week moving average in one year...

For now, I'm on capitulation watch.  So far the volume on this drop below $40K is less than the volume that dropped us below $50K, so I'm not sure we've seen the bottom yet.  The dead cat bounce will hopefully get us back up to retest $50K and give some people an opportunity to do some cashing out, but that might be a pipe dream.

You may well be right about our having had entered into a bear market, but you are likely premature.. we will have to see how it plays out in the coming 1-2 months...,. and yeah.. fair assessment regarding the volume levels and there not being any kind of clear bounce off of a bottom... how low to go? who knows?  bottom not yet in.. sure, fair enough.

My hopes are that we jump back above $53K on some good news and can resume the upward rise.  

 I am glad that you have not written off that possibility, which still seems at least 50% if not more.

My thoughts are telling me we'll see a sub $30K Bitcoin before the bleeding stops, and then likely a slow bleed that could potentially last years as value is extracted from Bitcoin by those who are overextended to that asset class (probably all of us).

Speak for yourself regarding being overextended.... Maybe you should shave off a wee bit more, just so that you are not so overextended?  sure, you would rather shave on a bounce rather than shaving on the way down, right?

Desperately looking for a bottom... but can't find any so far... no real bounces so far too...  Angry HODL!
In my bitter experience I can say that one big crash is immediately followed by another so I expect support at 28/31к. But I am optimistic, and I think that we will soon fly in the other direction [but not as soon as it might seem] as BTC is just entering the oversold zone, [In order not to repeat myself, I will quote what I wrote yesterday].

[...] And although I am not a financial analyst, in order to refute your arguments, I am still not sure about the reality of those easy money that you are talking about and, as a result, about the capitalization of the crypto market, since I am convinced that the turtle always wins the race. But I agree with the statement regarding your potential expectations of market behavior after panic selling, given that not so long ago [in March 2020] we saw a massive dump of liquid assets, including S&P500, followed by a triple ATH. Although I do not rule out the opposite, because I do not remember that the interests of the majority would ever prevail or at least mirror the idea of ​​a bearish or bullish trend.

I 'm not sure if what you wrote makes sense.

Fair enough that we might be oversold, but weren't we oversold while we were in the $42k to $43k yesterday, and then we got another $6k to $7k additional correction from there?   I am not really disputing either that once momentum changes (if it changes), then there can be a certain amount of UP momentum that comes just from the fact that it reverses and then just keeps going UP (until it doesn't).. .. just like we may well have the situation in which it just keeps going DOWN, until it doesn't... but when is that going to be?  the doesn't part.
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January 22, 2022, 07:01:23 AM


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January 22, 2022, 07:04:26 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)

I hadn't checked my stonks as work is getting crazier and crazier (and money should partly come with it, but I'm starting to regret my previous position where I could surf the web all day...).

Surely enough they're down too, not as much as BTC, but they hadn't gone up that much either (my company is a dividend company not a growth one).

I've had little time to figure out how to buy a bit more than my usual trading, to buy the dip, I just created an account on localbitcoins, any good/bad XP with this ?

I used to use LocalBitcoins for in-person transactions.. but they stopped the ability to do in-person transactions in the USA in about mid-2019.. so I don't necessarily recommend their other modes of transacting.. but maybe you are in a place in which LocalBitcoins can still facilitate in-person transactions?

Btc down  Cry
https://imgur.com/a/MnwrYZ0   


Elonmusk Today. LIVE

I will requote you so that your image can be seen, since there's nothing wrong with the table of historical BTC "days above" prices...

Not sure why we give very many shits in this here thread about "live Elon?"

Still, you should buy when it starts going back up, NOT while it is going down.
I don't know about bitcoin (perhaps it is unique), but buying any other asset when it is going down is a sure path to ruin..you just never know when it is going to stop.
Well, if you mechanically DCA, maybe OK, especially for indexes, but then you shouldn't increase or decrease your DCA-ing based on your price perception.
The latter could be erroneous.

You have too many assumptions in your statement Biodom, and really it seems that you don't know what the fuck you are talking about in your ongoing hesitancies to actually act rather than placing so much emphasis on waiting that likely has not faired to well for you in the stocking up on BTC arena. 

Maybe that is part of the reason that you had been spending so much time sitting on your hands between 2014 and now rather than just regularly buying BTC.

I will just state briefly that if any of us is in BTC accumulation stage, then we have to assess our own situations, and likely DCA is the most powerful of the strategies, and of course, that can be supplemented with buying on dips and lump sum buying too.. I am not exactly in DCA myself.. so my system is one of maintenance.. so even if I say what I did (buying down from $60k-ish to $35k, so far) that might not exactly apply to someone else who might not be even close to the same as me and including not being in a kind of maintenance stage....

I surely would not conclude that there is no value in considering various kinds of BTC accumulation strategies from what I am doing now and what I had historically done, so I do not necessarily assert that people should do exactly what I am doing, even though I attempt to talk about the various strategies of DCA, buying on dip and lump sum investing..

Now if you are referring to my earlier post in which I stated that I had four buy orders fill between $39k to $35k in the last 24 hours, then your suggestion to wait presumes too much, and surely if you are going to give some kind of BTC maintenance or accumulation strategy, you might need to outline your suggested strategy a wee bit better and within a context.. to merely assert that it is problematic to buy on the way down and to buy on the way up instead seems to be filled with non-contextualized nonsense and your desires to just spin your own nonsense facts.. what else is new?...

Yeah, you want to suggest the timing of the BTC price market to get the best BTC purchase prices, but how are we going to know when to adjust our buy orders in that way.... without some context?  and is that what I am doing?  is that the point that I was attempting to make?  Oh no you, Biodom, have a better suggestion, no?

For sure, there are various levels of need to study the BTC price and to attempt to predict direction (which i do not do that, even though that is what you are suggesting that peeps should be doing, right?)...   I have asserted many times that I believe that it is quite difficult to predict short term BTC price directions, and it is even worse to temper your behaviors on such prediction attempts, and so my system does not really have too much of any component that involves either attempting to predict the BTC price direction or to create actions that are dependent on such predictions...   As you likely realize I have created a system to avoid those kinds of futile attempts at price predictions, even though I play around with such price predictions as a hobby but my financial and/or psychological well-being do not depend on those price predictions playing out in any direction that I anticipate... and you know that.. but you continue to fight it.. right? 

By the way, I am pretty sure that my buy orders between $39k and $35k were largely already set in early September 2021 after the BTC price went above $46k - otherwise maybe the one buy order at $39k might have been reset after it got filled in mid September 2021 from that correction that happened around that time. 

In any event the system that I employ has a context and it is working quite well without your nonsense and mostly out of context second-guessing that I have continued to criticize your likely ongoing paralysis and failure/refusal to sufficiently stack BTC because you have ongoingly been so preoccupied that there might be a dip.. that does not always come to bear.. if we were waiting for your dips to play out, we likely would still be waiting at $10k with our hands between our legs or whatever you had been expecting the BTC price to NOT get above with your ongoing negativities that you try to later say that you still profited even though you failed/refused to sufficiently stock up BTC at that time and at previous times, and surely when we went on our 6x to 7x journey between September 2020 and April 20921 and again between August 2021 and November 2021... you were too busy thinking about down in order to adequately and sufficiently prepare yourself for UP... probably you were in the same level of paralysis in early to mid 2019 when we got our 3.5x appreciation from $4,200 to $13,880.
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