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My opening phrase says it all. "That's nice." as in "That's nice, you fucking beartard." Can this even be considered to be anything other than a joke? Frankly, considering that my profit/loss threshold currently stands at about $1800, I don't even care much if it drops to $20k or even less. But I'm pretty sure that it won't.
I suppose that we are both having a bit of fun here with some of the extremes of the goofball, yet sometimes we might need to clarify because there are likely some people who might end up believing that his assertions might be reasonable... and so it does not hurt sometimes that we might want to put out some numbers to make sure we keep our grip upon reality.
We have already discussed that if there were some kind of extreme dip right now, we might be able to get down to the 200-week moving average, which is currently approaching $20.5k, but even if we look at how much support has been holding, it seems as if it would take quite a bit of effort to even get down that far... never say never, but geez... let me see $33k get breached first, then $28.6k, and then lower $20ks would then become possible.. so there are a few thresholds to get below first.
Furthermore, we had a 56% correction from $64,895 down to $28,600 that took place in May, June, July.. and then more recently we got a 52% correction down from $69k to $32,951, so far.. .these correction come after a price appreciation that might have been 7x at best.. and surely we might have to consider how long it has taken such 7x to take place... including whether measuring from the bottom, middle or top.. of various potentially representative price points that played out between December 2017 and September 2020.. in order to figure out what would be a potentially representative jumping off price point... and it seems hardly obvious that we even have greater than 50% odds that we will have any kind of further down from here.. this might be the last day to get BTC below $40k and such a UPpity scenario seems to be more likely than the conglomeration of BTC price models that ImThour has been throwing out there while hoping that something might stick.. perhaps? perhaps?
Models, models everywhere! One can construct a model that fits a specific narrative -- any narrative. So, beartards tend to build beartard models, while bulls tend to build bullish models. Which tells us one thing: never trust any model you come across in the intertoobz.
well maybe... perhaps take the models with a grain of salt, even though it seems that some models give us better depictions of reality as compared with other models.... and in that regard, I think that bull models do tend to do better.. at least directionally to help us to figure out where we are, based on where we have been and where we might well be going.
Personally, I never blindly trust a model. Any model. The only "model" I take seriously, is Bitcoin's Halving 4-year cycle. Supply is cut in half every four years. There's no need to know anything more that this, to know that its price will rise.
Sorry to say.. you do know more than that... and so in that regard.. yeah.. directionally we know which way we are likely going, even if we are not sure about how far we are going to go and how long it is going to take.. but other than that.. we have pretty decent ideas about directionally which way we are going and which models point that out to us better than other models..
The 200-Week MA confirms this, as well as the WMAs below it, down to the 169-Week MA,
as Phil_S has shown (the less weeks in a monotonically increasing MA indicator, the steadier the price appreciation over time). MA indicators are not models, but one can extrapolate from them (esp. the longer-horizon ones, such at the 200-Week MA) and get a pretty good estimate of what's coming. That's more than enough for me. Anything short-term is Crystal Ball material, and I treat it as such.
Fair enough.. we are thinking similarly.. but making our assertions a wee bit differently.. and in the end.. we have decent ideas about the ongoing direction.
Back to ImThour's self-fulfilling predictors, false as they may be, if they make me dream of BTFD at a price under $20k, so be it.
Long shot.. but it is possible that it could happen.. but not too good to be assiging too high of odds to such fantasies.. especially since we still seem to be in a bull market...
Now, if we were in a bear market, then surely touching the 200-week moving average which is currently at $20.5k or even wicking below it quickly would have a wee bit higher odds, but currently, the odds seem to be quite a long shot.. 10% might even be charitable... but if we were to get below $33k and then below $28.6k and then the odds would start to become higher than 10%.. but currently, I probably would not put anything greater than 2% or 5% on such a gamble.. even though I understand that reasonable minds can assess these matters differently regarding the assignment of odds... including how much brainpower or how much typing power should go into such long shot scenarios.
As much as I'd hate for the price to drop so low, and I don't believe it will, I'd take that opportunity to buy cheap coins without hesitation. For long-term HoDLers like us, either way it goes in the short term is a win-win.
win/win? I am not sure. I would really hate it.. but surely, I still have buy orders going down that far...and I would hate it all the way if any of those got filled below $33k... even though I still am not prepared to rest assured that our current $32,951 bottom is in until we spend at least a day above $46k and maybe even I am not really going to rest assured about the $32,951 bottom being in until we spend a day above $50k...that's my tentative concentration points.. and fucking sad all the way down I would be while buying up a few coins just to make my lil selfie feel less bad and also I would have to end up reassessing that we are likely not in a bullmarket anymore.. would not feel like any kind of win for me.. even though financially and psychologically I am prepared for extremes.. even extremes that I do not want to happen and even extremes that I consider to be quite unlikely to happen... such as a wicking down or below the current 200-week moving average.
Low increases our stash, high increases our profits. And the long-term trend is virtually guaranteed UPpity. What's there not to like?
Lot's of weak hands would be shaken for sure.. and maybe some of the shitcoins might end up getting purged.. but I still would not like it.. ... .. I might even need to make some further adjustments to my buy schedule if we go below $30k.. would not be fun.. even though I might just keep it the way I have it.. still would not be fun... ... gosh going down below $30k.. might even trigger a kind of delayed bull market.. but I am not sure.. could kind of screw some investment thesis up, and I suppose a more likely rationale to justify fueling such would be the purging of shitcoin froth.... but still.. just does not seem that any further down is actually necessary in order to fuel further purging of shitcoin froth.. ...
sorry to be crying in my milk before any such thing happens.. but really does not seem good to me.. and I think that it is also a pretty big long shot especially for anyone expecting sub $30k coins.. we will see. we will see.
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