You are looney to be attempting to pre-empt me by trying to act as if you know what I am going to say and then attribute some kind of bullshit lame strawman argument to me, when I have not been saying anything even close to that.
Just because you get so excited in your desires to puke up lame bear arguments - should not amount to my making overly bullish (hopium-based) arguments, because even if you may well be more bearish inclined (and possibly more "realistic") than me, that still does not even come close to suggesting that I would have been making any kinds of arguments to suggest that we have had much if any bounce since we hit $17,593 in mid-June.
It's what you said weeks ago regarding this 25K bounce.
I doubt that you are quoting me accurately, if that's what you got from whatever words that I might have used "a couple of weeks ago."
I am just saying we have not the same definition of "bounce" when you unscroll the chart from the 69K .. there is no convinced bounce at all since.
You think so? It's one thing saying that there has not been any bounce since mid June, but it is another thing to say that there has not been any bounce since November 9th.. That's a long time, and there seems to have been some bounces in there that almost got us out of the DOWNity.. I remember.. I was here during such times. Do we need to go through the charts?
And, if so does it really matter? We are at the place where we are at, and you can have whatever reasons that you like for assigning more pessimism than what I assign... and I just hope that you are not overly assigning probabilities to scenarios that are not as likely to happen as you are "betting" them to play out.
In the end, each of us is responsible for our own bets and preparations.. so of course, no one wants to get completely reckt.. . yet we can still have differing views and still neither one of us ends up getting completely reckt as long as we are fairly incremental in the way that we prepare, and we prepare for either direction.. ..
but hey, if you want to put way more preparations into DOWNity than me, then that is your choice.. hopefully
(for your own sake) you are not employing leverage with those kinds of bets, and if you are just waiting to buy or buying less, then the differences in the performance of our investment portfolios might not be that greatly different.. perhaps? perhaps?
Whoaza!!!! You are waiting until $15k and lower to start buying? Horey sheit!!!!
Hopefully, you have not neglected in pee paring ur lil selfie for UPpity too?
I already told you, I started to buy BTC early 2015 at the 200$ish, never sold any BTC before 50K.
How am I supposed to remember your every little detail, and anyhow, there is no hurt in mentioning these kinds of considerations. We are in a public thread by the way.. We are not having a private conversation. .even though there might not be too many folks who read the back and forths in details..
I started to buy again when we hit again 20K$ in june. And I was very surprised, like most of us I think, to see no reaction on BTC, no bounce, nothing.
Fair enough... I am not really that surprised or shocked about no bounce.. because bitcoin does outrageous things on a fairly regular basis.. and even though I am disappointed by our largely getting stuck below the 200-week moving average
So yep, I put new order to accumulate many more BTC from 15Kish, every 1K down, same order (double order size from the 10K and less).
It's true that each of us needs to attempt to balance our cashflows to the best of our abilities, so I am not going to be opposed to any ideas that attempt to assure that we never run out of cash to buy on the way down, just as I am not going to be opposed to any plan that preserves abilities to continue to sell on the way up, too.
Of course, historically, many of us who have been paying attention in bitcoinlandia have witnessed a large number of folks who either run out of money to buy way too early or they hold back too much on their purchases of BTC in such a way that they have not adequately prepared themselves for UP, so in that sense, it sounds as if you have already reached a balance that you assert comforts you, so in that regard, you are the one who has to live with your preparation trade offs, and most of us likely feel some angle of those kinds of dilemmas.
At the moment that I am typing this post, you preparations for DOWN seem way overboard from my perspective, but also around 8-10 months ago, I would have said the same in regards towards preparing for sub $20k. I had buy orders that went just down to $20k, but I did not have any buy orders lower than that, and most of my dollars that were somewhat set aside for buying more bitcoin were allocated supra $20k - so largely I had to begin jiggling some of my buy orders and even reconsidering some of my cashflows once we went below the 100-week moving average in around early May 2022 - and we had not bounced back within several days of going below such price point, which then was going below $35k-ish and currently the 100-week moving average is just over $37,600.
In other words, I already had to juggle my cash allocations and the ways that my BTC buy orders are staggered, the amounts and the intervals in order to adapt to BTC price expectations that have gone way beyond prior expectations - and surely you are asserting that my already blown expectations are going to continue to be blown, and sure it is possible that you could end up being correct.. yet again, what are the odds? And are you really putting higher than 30% preparations in scenarios that are less than 5%.. and I am not even opposed to putting higher preparations into certain scenarios because each of us are not going to assign the same values to our expectations so then our preparations are going to differ but I would still expect that we are going to want to attempt to match our preparations the best that we can to our expectations and even though both are likely moving targets, that we still are trying our best to match preparations and expectations.
What odds are we giving such $10k or below? You realize that the level of our preparation should be apportioned to the level of odds that we are giving to such scenarios.. and so that preparation should be both financial and psychological... and how high we going to go with such preparations? Sounds like you are giving such scenarios pretty high odds, especially since you found it to be so important to elaborate on such ideas that you consider to be reasonably within the realm of possibilities.
I don't know the probability to go under 10K$, probably not 50% but more than 10% IMO.
Well, fair enough that you gave some kind of a number, and surely I understand that assignment of numbers remains a moving target in which certain kinds of price performance and/or other events might change the numbers in one direction or another, so I am glad that you at least put a number on it which surely shows that you are assigning way higher values to sub $10k than me.. and I would think mine would at least be below 4%, but it might even get close to being below 1.5%.. hahahaha.. not meaning to be too precise.. and I have not exactly gone through one of those percentage assignment exercises for a while like I did in
this post on about May 19. Sure based on events and even BTC price behaviors and other factors that I listed in my earlier response post to you, my assignment of numbers has changed since May 19, and I have no compunctions about changing my numbers even though surely going through such a somewhat rigorous exercise of attempting to assign actual numbers can be difficult while it pinpoints a person at that particular time that s/he is performing such number assignment exercise (and I think that I had gone through a similar number assigning exercise a few days earlier in another post, but then I was glad to be able to attempt to revise my numbers based on the market settling down a bit more after my first attempt to do it while the price was still moving DOWNwardly quite strongly.
Another wow.. you are saying that you consider 90%-ish odds that the bottom is not in.. so maybe you are even inclined to short since you are so confident.. and maybe you would like to place some kind of a wager on your odds.. i am probably around 50/50 for breaking below $17,593, but if you want to bet on something like $15k being reached, it seems that you are giving something more than 50% on $15k being reached, and that might actually be bettable from my perspective.. and of course working out the terms would not be easy.. because many times guys will spout out similar kinds of nonsense like you and assign stupidly high odds to certain kinds of bearish scenarios that they say, but they will be no where to be found when it comes time to actually placing some kind of value or even to put reputation on the line in regards to making some kind of bet that includes such odds that they have actually assigned to the supposedly soothsayer bearish scenario(s) that they will not back up.
If you want to avoid the macro situation, it's your choice.
Again, you are going back to your preaching mood as if you know so much more than me and/or other people, and I was largely throwing out a feeler to attempt to see if there might be some room for some kind of a bet, which might have to have both a number component and a time component, and we really have not talked too much about our considerations regarding the time component, but I would imagine that you are considering the sub $10k possibility to play out in a fairly soon manner such as within less than a few months, and sure there could be wiggle room in terms of both figuring out the timeline for a bet and then the number to pick and then the odds to assign based on differing opinions of likelihood, and I am not really sure if our opinions are great enough differences to bet.. since you are saying for sure greater than 10%, and I am saying most likely below 4% but could even be below 1.5%.. but is there enough room in those differing opinions for any kind of meaningful bet? I would likely be willing to bet it not happening.. but then your odds are pretty low too, so you are even suggesting that it is not likely to happen, even though you assign quite a bit higher odds than me. I am just not smart enough to figure out how to structure such a bet, if we were to make such a bet, unless maybe someone were to propose something that brought us in a direction that highlights the differences in a meaningful way.
I just said it's look like a utopia to think that BTC will hold at 50%+ probability this bottom if we continue to drop on the stock market indices.
Yeah.. but I did not even say that.
You seem to want to assign attributions to me that I never made. You are ongoingly trying to suggest that I am way more bullish and way more filled with UPpity hopium than the more practical uie-pooie.
If we are talking about our current bottom at $17,593 and whether the BTC price will break below it, I have never said that the odds were greater than 50% that the bottom was in, and if you can attempt to understand the language that I have used, I have been saying that I am going to have confidence that the bottom is in if we get back above the 100-week moving average - which we have not even gotten close to getting back above that... but as a consolation prize (or a runner up position), several times I said that I might consider getting in the lower $30ks in terms of providing enough momentum (and distance) to start to be able to rest assured that the bottom is in.. so we have not gotten anywhere close to those kinds of numbers that I was considering, so I remain hard-pressed to even figure out how you could have suggested that I was getting excited about $25k-ish having much if any meaning beyond the fact that we had been temporarily going up and having some reprieve from being below $20k.. and we were even having reprieve to be getting back above the 200-week moving average which historically had been the place where a lot of the longer term and depressing price consolidations in bitcoin had been taking place, including in 2015 when the vast majority of the 8-10 months that we were hovering around the 200-week moving average, we were almost always above the 200-week moving average except for maybe only a few short stents below the 200-week moving average for maybe a few days at most each time. Sure in March 2020, we may well have spent nearly 2 weeks below the 200-week moving average, but still those were temporary stents below the 200-week moving average, not like our currently spending more than 3 months (so far) below the 200-week moving average.. so you are expecting us to go below the 300 week moving average and probably even going below the 400-week moving average.. Do we need to look up those numbers? Ok.. I just looked them up, and I see the 300-week moving average is right above $17,500, and the 400-week moving average is at about $13,300.
I am a BTC Believer but still connected to the reality.
I don't know about how well you are more connected to reality than anyone else, and to me, you come off as less connected to reality than I am.. but I must be biased in favor of my lil selfie. hahahaha
For sure you have always been way more of a bear than the general WO sentiment, and I wonder how well that ongoing bearishness fared for you during the September 2020 (or even going back to March 2020) to November 2021 period.. were you able to take advantage of any of that UPpity that we experienced, or were you underly prepared for that UP? Maybe you are just hoping to return to the past in which you failed/refused to buy BTC in the sub $10ks (and we were there for a hell of a long time between 2018 and 2020), so you want to make up for your missing out on those sub-$10k prices?
Actually, I think that your assignment of probabilities to sub $10k are pretty damned high (too damned high).. even though I am not proclaiming that it could not happen.. but still you seem to be overly bearish and therefore less connected to reality than preferred in these here parts. We (royal that is) should kick you out of this thread (vote you off of the island) for being too bearish, or make you have to do some kind of repentance until you shapen-up to proper and MOAR "connected to reality" of the real world of bitcoinlandia standards. hahahahaha
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