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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25887362 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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Even though I agree with the overall message of this meme, I get the sense that none of us really understands bitcoin with any kind of well rounded knowledge, but many of us who have studied bitcoin for a long period of time have gotten to know certain parts of bitcoin.. just like the blind men touching varying parts of an elephant, and surely I am including my lil selfie into a group that might have gotten some understanding of one or two parts of the elephant, so maybe I know more than the brand new person who either is just coming up to the elephant or has ONLY been told about the elephant.

By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.

We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet?  something like $14k.  Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months?  I might be willing to take the other side of that bet.  We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.
You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

I am initially trying to figure out if we might be able to figure out some possible agreeable bettable terms in which we are in agreement that the terms are clear and we are in agreement that each of us would take the opposite side of the bet.  I don't really want to bet, but if you are stating some pretty outrageous ideas, I would be willing to see if you would be willing to stand behind your ideas more than merely spouting them out.

If you may well realize, that historically in this thread, there are a lot of members who spout out all kinds of bullshit and even outrageous and somewhat non-specific bullshit, but then when it comes down to figuring out some kinds of possible bettable terms, then we get crickets.    I would actually prefer someone else bet, but I am willing to enter into a bet as long as we can work out agreeable terms.

For example if you were to say that the odds for the BTC price to go below $14k were greater than 50% within the next 3 months, then surely I would be willing to take that otherside of that bet if we figured out an agreeable amount to bet.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

First of all, why would I do that when I have ONLY conceded that I have more than 0.63BTC, so why would I enter into a bet that may well consume the whole of my conceded bitcoin stash size?  

Another thing is that if we were to find something that had really high odds on one end and low odds on the other end, then I think that the bet size would change if one side were to be giving higher odds to the other, but if we are trying to figure out a potential 50% threshold, then each of the sides would be betting the same amount. So for example if you were to proclaim that the odds of BTC to go below $10k were greater than 50%, then I may well be wiling to bet a higher amount on that kind of a bet.. otherwise if we cannot find the most outrageous of statements, then I might not be willing to bet.. because I would need to perceive that the odds were in my favor of winning, just like you would need to perceive that the odds were in your favor of winning or that the pay off was sufficiently good. if you are trying to move the amount up.. or maybe you are wanting to whimp out of making any bet because you want the amounts to be  higher so you can have more of a dramatic effect.. blah blah blah.. which to me shows that you are probably not serious..

In regards to the size of the bet, probably it would be something in the lower ranges, perhaps something like in the 0.001 BTC or lower ranges (which is around 100k sats)... and most likely we would need to find and/or agree upon a person to escrow, too.

If we work out the terms, there might be some other members willing to bet more, and maybe all the bets might add up to 1 BTC.. who knows?  I would like to work out the terms of the bet before committing to high amounts or trying to act like some kind of a high roller and bullshit like that.  I don't need that kind of attention as a supposed BIG baller.  I already have more attention than I wish to have, relatively speaking and in an ideal world.. if such an ideal world were to exist.

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?

That's tempting, but it is NOT really that outrageous in comparison to my own views of possible bottoms... and so it sounds like that is the lowest that you are willing to assign your 50/50 odds?  So you are suggesting that the odds are greater than 50% that the price will touch less than $15,500 before April 1, 2023 - that's if we pick the last day of March and midnight as our cut-off for the bet?  If I am not willing to take the bet, then there might be another member in these here parts who would be willing to play ball with that number and take your bet (that seems less outrageous than things you had been saying previously in regards to $10k)..

Let me ponder over it, and in the meantime maybe another member will be eager to take the other side of that. I am pretty sure that I would assign less than 50% odds to such, but I am not feeling as strongly about it as if you were to pick a lower number.  For example, if you picked lower than $13k, then I might be able to give you 2/1 odds... but then we still need to figure the bet-size for that, too 100k satoshis if you lose and 200k satoshis if I lose..   I am thinking sub $10k, I might be able to give you 4/1 odds on something like that.. you have to pay me 100k satoshis if we do not go below $10k and I pay you 400k satoshis if we go below $10k... before April 1, 2023.

Anyone more creative out there?

or more willing than me to enter into betting terms with gallianooo on his seemingly increasingly less bearish (than previously stated) terms?

Anyone trustworthy wiling to escrow? and what would be your fees, if any?

By the way, I will give you credit, so far, gallianooo, that you are at least discussing possible bettable terms as compared with some earlier interactions on the topic when outrageous claims were being made, even though it seems a bit to me that you are backing off of some of your more outrageous claims, and maybe that is my fault for trying to pick a higher number and possible 50/50 terms..

You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?
JJG won't bet you on that number. Neither would I .

But I should not assume what he will do. He can type for himself. Grin

Yeah.. you are right about my perception of that gallianooo's numbers are NOT very bold.. and from my perception, gallianooo does seem to be backing off of his more extreme statements from earlier.. but I might have contributed to causing some of that backing off..... my bbbbaaaaaddd to not stick with (and push for) the more extreme numbers.. and maybe we will figure out an acceptable betting threshold .. .perhaps? perhaps?..

if you guys bet 0.001 or 0.01  each. I will escrow it for no charge

including the  fees to send the coins to the winner.
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September 26, 2022, 02:07:29 AM

[edited out]
It's what he said. Able to go more than 14K$ but not 16-17K, so we. are around 15.5, or 15.250$ to be exact. between 14K and 16.5K average.

I hate going back to look at what I said or what I did not say.. but I thought that I was saying that I would be willing to take a 50/50 bet if you were to use $14k as your threshold, but I would not be willing to take a bet for 50/50 if it were to be in the $16k to $17k because the surplus value or the amount of my conviction that the odds are greater than 50% on my side would NOT be great enough... So instead of going with the one that I said that I would take (the $14k), you suggest that you are compromising and being more reasonable when you suggest $15,500 - which is barely below the number that I said that I would not take... so even if you might be proposing something that goes beyond my 50/50 ideas, you are not making any tempting proposal in regards to what might be terms that I would find to be want me to enter into a bet.

I am not asserting that you are being disingenuous, but if you are becoming way less extreme than I previously considered you to be, then it seems that we would be entering into a bet for the mere sake of the bet rather than our having any kind of major difference of opinion.  There is hardly anything exciting about a bet that is not very outrageous.. and maybe that might be part of the reason that we might need to go for more of an extreme bet, in the event that there might be some workable terms.. and I am not even sure about that.   

I prefer if some guys stick to their outrageous statement and then we can bet on what I believe is the outrageous statement, but if the statement is becoming less and less extreme from my point of view.. then I don't really see a reason to bet.. except going through the motions.. .. because we already know that bitcoin can go down extreme price behaviors and I believe we are already in a kind of extreme price location, but I am not going to concede that there are not limits to how extreme I believe that the price could go (including continuing to go down).. I recall a lot of folks spouting out about $13k blah blah blah.. but none of them have entered into any bets (at least not in this thread), even though it is seeming that $13k is more likely than it might have been a month or two ago (not counting the first time that the BTC price had dropped to mid $17ks in mid June).

getting interesting around here...

I agree that if we can work out some concrete differences of opinion, then that can bring us upon more interesting lines of discussion, and surely I would prefer someone else bets rather than me, but I will do it if no one else wants to take the bet and I find it acceptable from my own perspective.

also interesting because we don't know exactly how much 1BTC in USD terms means to each one of you..

(If I don't mix up account names in my head, gallianooo already gave a hint about his net worth though... )

You are right that bet size in regards to networth and those kinds of considerations ends up being an interesting kind of side question in regards to what might be the purpose of the bet.  I have frequently told people that I have plenty of money, and in that regards, I am not trying to make money in forum activities, and at one point I gave up getting involved in forum signature campaigns because I did not want to do it anymore, even though I did make pretty decent quantities of BTC in past years in being involved in signature campaigns.. but I would rather not..even though I do end up posting anyhow.. it just no longer seems worth it to me.. .even if it is kind of like free money/BTC since I am already participating in many parts of the forum on a regular basis.  

My memory might be failing me too because currently, I cannot recall too many of gallianooo's specific wealth-related disclosures/discussions to the extent that any of us might be telling the truth in terms of very many of the those kinds of specifics.    

I suppose that I could go back through gallianooo's post history, but the ONLY thing that I can really recall is that he seems to have been ongoingly bearish in his ideas while continuously proclaiming that he is not bearish and he is a HODLer including that he had said on more than one occasion that he had been in bitcoin since 2015-ish. .while at the same time leaving me with the impression that he has not really been a very assertive stacker of sats in his early days or even at any other time while continuously being worried about losing value, which causes me to speculate that he has issues with the ways in which he has been stacking... whether it is not aggressive enough.. or too aggressive to cause him regrets when he feels like he has not sold enough during the exponential price periods.

By the way, I have a problem with anyone trying to publicly get me to to do large transactions over a certain amount - especially if there might be drawing attention to such transactions .. and yeah, if we end up betting 0.001 BTC and/or 100k sats, and the BTC price goes up to $1 million in the process, then the dollar value of the transaction amount ends up being way higher than originally planned, but still it is much more manageable than having to deal with betting something like 1 BTC if any of us were to agree to do it in a public way, and that is not anything that I want to get involved in.. at least not at this point in my life.

However, many will probably agree that 1 BTC will be worth some 100k$ or a mill within the next 10 years..  So, such a bet might look bigger in the future than it is now

0.001 or even 0.004 will look a lot BIGGER too, and I doubt that it is even very important to enter into any sizable bet in order to demonstrate the point that I am hoping to demonstrate, and that is just having conviction to back up statements that are made, especially if they seem a bit outrageous to me, and hey I am not claiming that I am going to be correct in the event that I agree to enter into a bet.  

Some of you might recall that I was having some back and forth discussions with a member regarding what were the odds for $200k by the middle or the end of 2023, and even though I cannot recall the details, the other member said that it was absolutely not going to happen. .something like 0% odds or maybe odds that were just above 0%, so I was interested in entering into that bet, even though now we are seeing that I would have likely entered into a losing bet, but at the times I would have been willing to work out some kind of a bet based on the stated terms.. but we did not get anywhere in our discussion because the member would not stand behind the prediction in terms of money.. and we did not even really get to explore odds or amounts, and I am pretty sure that I would not have been willing to bet large amounts, but at least enough to make the points of standing behind predictions.  My recollection also is that the member was proposing high and unreasonable amounts (from my perspective).
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September 26, 2022, 03:20:52 AM

Its Sunday my dudes
Go touch grass, slap dirt, pound sand...
Whatever you do
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September 26, 2022, 04:46:08 AM
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...Tumbleweeds in the WO ever since the Bull was arrested.

The Bull is not arrested.
It's Recovering. Invest before it recovers.
It's been a long since its suffering.
Don't expect too long to get recovered.

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September 26, 2022, 04:50:19 AM
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Just in case people haven't heard, my Hulk-smashing Proof of Work website https://bitcoincleanup.com is live now. Spread the word if you want.

Good work NotATether although those who don't want to listen they won't but it worth trying. There are numerous articles and proven publications where it's established bitcoin isn't what mainstream media highlights but of course anything negative brings more attention and more views that is what those hungry dudes want they don’t care about the facts.

For an experiment you can create another website where just show how much energy bitcoin is consuming and compare it with any country like Argentina or post some bogus facts with big numbers like bitcoin consuming hundreds of terra watts per hours and then see the which website is getting more hits :p
 
Anyway excellent work... and I would love to know more about your logo... the greenish look is understood with white bitcoin logo looking neat but what's about this honeycomb mesh? or is it a leaf's photosynthesis cells?




Well it does look like a leaf too :p

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When you're talking about understanding bitcoin, do you mean the technology, or rather how it is used, what the future holds in terms of adoption ? Will it replace fiat ? Gold ?

If you were referring to my earlier post, I suppose that I was referring to the fact that bitcoin touches upon a lot of different fields of knowledge in terms of figuring out bitcoin's possible value to society - and surely just in terms of technology, there would be various aspects of the code and various layers built upon it and also use cases that relate to having open source software and largely knowing from the start that there are going to be governance issues and also copy cats that involve genuine and disingenuous variations - that also plays into the varying game theories involved in how it is set up with mining incentives and the difficulty adjustments and cryptography (and features that can be built around cryptographical ideas and/or various ways of making changes to existing  code).

There are also social implications that relate to at least the seven network effects that had been outlined by Trace Mayer, and elements that relate to personal financing, sound money and allocations that deal with attempting to prepare yourself for the future whether you are an individual or someone who is involved in an institution that wants to get involved in bitcoin or a government.

Because I feel the technology is reachable. Knowing what will happen, that's another story.

I think that some aspects of bitcoin can be understood, and even on deep levels, and I don't know how to program or the advantages and disadvantages of having various bitcoin implementations or even how some of the various wallets and exchanges might interact with bitcoin or the ways that some of the variations in the new features and the backwards compatibility (and forwards compatibility in which some of the wallets support a variety of different kinds of wallets).. .. When I am trying to explain some technical aspects of bitcoin to some newbies, there are some people (who I am teaching) who look at me as if I am a genius, and I say that I hardly know shit about how these things work even though I have varying kinds of practices that I employ to interact with my coins that have changed through the years too, and sometimes I have some changes in my practices that are sparked by something that I learned that I want to do or that I don't want to do something that I had previously been doing. 

Oh even with game theory and various legal aspects that might relate to issues that come through the fakesatoshi trial and then other jurisdictional aspects that surely are going to differ from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

I'm French so I have the Euro as a daily currency, that one is also quite an experiment. Countries sharing a currency without sharing an economic policy. Now Italy has voted for populists in the hope they can do something. That will end it tears, most probably.

And just describing those issues seems to touch on politics, economics and regulatory matters, and seems like bitcoin has potentials to touch on everything - even when public perceptions (would that be marketing) is going to differ around the world too, and for some societies with real high inflation and/or other economic difficulties (includng having a large number of bankless citizens), some of those people might start to understand the need for bitcoin, but they might not understand how bitcoin differs from various shitcoins that also might be being offered.  I find so many smart people who have really strong arguments about how much they hate bitcoin, and I wonder how they can be so smart and say so many smart things but still not seem to understand what bitcoin is and how it differs from shitcoins including that some of these real smart people seem to be getting the beginnings of their talking points from various mainstream journals or websites or other news channels and they still are smart about a lot of things but still talk about bitcoin in ways that overlaps bitcoin with various shitcoins... and they even talk as if they know what is bitcoin.. and maybe they will talk about ethereum or some other shitcoin and say the other kind of bitcoin.. blah blah blah..

And, I was talking to a "relative" who is into Cardano about bitcoin and he was going on about how Cardano comes to the Crypto matter from "First principles," and after more than an hour of going through various kinds of discussions, he brought his phone over to me, and he showed my some kind of bitcoin hashrate chart, and he asked me if this was what I was talking about when I mentioned the difficulty adjustment, and in other words, this guy has been buying Cardano and cheerleading for Cardano for a bit more than 2 years, but does not seem to have any kind of clue in regards to how bitcoin mining works.. but he knew Cardano was better than bitcoin because it is proof of stake rather than grandpa principles related to proof of work... and it is a good thing that he ended up walking away after that portion of our discussion.. because he had some child care duties that came up and we never continued with the conversation even though I was starting to think that the guy is such a lost cause even though he seems to be spouting out various Cardano talking points and even prepared to say that Cardano is still better than bitcoin, and I think that several times, I told him that he does not seem to even understand bitcoin, even though I had several conversations with him over the past several years, and he got into shitcoins and cardano.. because I guess he thinks he is smarter than me.. not that I claim to be smart... but still quite aggravating.. to seem to get almost no where with the guy after a variety of sporadic conversations on the bitcoin topic.

[edited out]
if you guys bet 0.001 or 0.01  each. I will escrow it for no charge

including the  fees to send the coins to the winner.

Thanks.. .. if we get to the point of actually having some kind of possible agreeable bet terms, then we could put you on the list of possibilities, and if there is more than one possible escrow person on our list (if we get that far), then we could agree to a selection process.. hahahahaha..

It is quite unlikely that the amounts would get any higher if I am involved in the bet, but if other members want to get into our bet, then the amounts could get higher, and maybe even we could reach gallianooo's wish for a 1 BTC bet, but really I am suspecting that he is proposing a 1 BTC bet because he is trying to get out of actually making a real bet.. .that's my tentative speculation why he proposed (I was going to say "that dweeb" but I will be nicer, for the moment in order to keep the dialogue open.. . hahahahaha) a 1 BTC bet amount.
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September 26, 2022, 05:18:19 AM
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Estonia Issues First License


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September 26, 2022, 05:55:20 AM

 Looks to be a bloody Monday on wall st, GBP is in a nosedive, parity to USD soon?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7QLBY1XHS8

Quote
In this video, I discuss Jamie Dimon's recent comments on Bitcoin and crypto.

Dimon criticizes crypto for the same things that his bank has been been doing for years: money laundering, sex trafficking, and participating in Ponzi schemes.
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September 26, 2022, 06:56:57 AM
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Now Italy has voted for populists in the hope they can do something. That will end it tears, most probably.

You can't blame them. If they vote for populists, it means they're desperate and not sure they'll be able to pay their bills. They're fed up with their government and want change. I know that sounds childish and naive like a poor person going to a casino and going all in but you can't judge them.  Cool
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September 26, 2022, 07:01:59 AM
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Imma buy dollarz. They so valuable. Dollarz so good. Dollarz....




Good man, make up for our mistakes, oh sorry, make up for your mistakes, nothing to do with us. Anyway, carry on.
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