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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 38 (25.5%)
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After 2027 - 3 (2%)
Never - 5 (3.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26003210 times)
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JayJuanGee
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September 26, 2022, 06:58:30 PM

It is quite unlikely that the amounts would get any higher if I am involved in the bet, but if other members want to get into our bet, then the amounts could get higher, and maybe even we could reach gallianooo's wish for a 1 BTC bet, but really I am suspecting that he is proposing a 1 BTC bet because he is trying to get out of actually making a real bet.. .that's my tentative speculation why he proposed (I was going to say "that dweeb" but I will be nicer, for the moment in order to keep the dialogue open.. . hahahahaha) a 1 BTC bet amount. blablabla.
JJG...

You really speak TOO MUCH,

Tell me something that I have not heard 100,000 times before.

and you are moving around...

That's not true.  I was not initially prepared to solidify anything in the lower ranges, but I did give you a $14k number.. so maybe you are just having troubles following.. so I cannot really blame uie-pooie for that. 

I will say that the more that we speak about this, it does seem that I am potentially narrowing down into three possible bet proposals from my end that involve your pre-April 1 date. As I largely stated in my earlier post:

1) I give you 4/1 on sub $10k

2) I give you 2/1 on sub $13k

3) we do 1/1 on sub $15k (I had not previously agreed to this, but I would be willing to bet against sub $15k as a 1/1 for funzies.

You could agree to any one of them or all three of them.  Of course, each one would require the agreed to bet amounts, but I would be willing to back mine as long as the bet amounts were 100k satoshis-ish.. so then in that scenario my payouts would be 100k/200k/400k for each of the three if each of the three was to happen (so if all three were entered, I would have to put up 700k satoshis), but you would have to put up 100 for each of the three or any of the three that you choose.

Yes, i said 10%+ chance for 10K$ below and obv. we dont have the bottom yet.
 

Whoaza!!!!!   There you go.  Returning to outrageous language.  It is not obvious that our bottom is not in, even if it might potentially be greater than 50/50 that our bottom is not in, so the fact that you use such strong language seems that we could arrive at bettable term for lower price thresholds, but you would probably have to give me odds.. especially since you believe it is so damned obvious that our bottom is not in.  What kind of odds would you give me on staying above $17,593?  20 to 1?  If you think that it is obvious, it should not be a problem for you to give me decently high odds on that, no?  If that number is too extreme, we might be able to work on a number that involves whether the bottom is in or not... since you think that it is "obviously" not in, and I don't agree with that kind of bullshit absolutist kind of language that you are spouting out and then you back off from it if I want you to back it up with more than just absolutist cock-sure rhetoric.
 
Then YOU started to talk for a bet. You talked as well about 14K$, then bit more, but not on the 16-17K$. I just did an average of what you said (16.5+14)/2=15,250
 

Averaging makes little sense, and hopefully you can appreciate my reservations.. and hopefully you can also appreciate that some of the value in betting comes from when the parties are betting on the extremes of their assertions and beliefs if such extremes happen to exist.  If we largely see the world very similar and without too much difference in terms of probabilities, then there is nothing that is really bettable there. On the other hand, from my perspective, you keep using strong language, but then when it comes down to details, then we can see that our opinions might not be as different as you seem to be wanting to make them out to be - especially if you are not standing behind the more extreme variations that you seem to be verbally asserting on a fairly regular basis - and attributing me to being the opposite of your more "realistic" view of the BTC price dynamics world.
 
We are both in BTC since almost 8 years or more.

At the end of November I will be at 9 years for my starting date, even though it did take me about a year to build up my BTC position and to start to feel as if I had more or less established a ballpark of what I thought was going to be my target stake.

Come on, we are not at the kinder garden to bet the snack break...

Fuck off with your trying to act like a big baller nonsense.  I already provided plenty of reason why I am likely not going to bet beyond around 100 satoshis - per bet - and sure if there is a multiplier in there or multiple ways to frame the bet, then I might be willing to add variables or to structure various bets (perhaps?), then the amount could end up adding up to more, and sure there might be some guys willing to bet larger amounts with you on terms that you would like, but we have not quite narrowed down the other terms anyhow.
 
I'm quite disappointed of what you said after being kind of swagger but wants to bet some peanuts.

Well, if we work out the terms, there might be someone who might be wiling to bet you on the same terms with a higher amount.  If you keep going on about this point, it sounds to me that you are trying to find some reason to weasel out of the bet.. rather than really trying to figure out some possible agreeable terms.  Let's say that we bet this time, then maybe we would be able to bet again in the future with larger amounts.. but I am not going to starty getting distracted by amounts.. .. in order to prove something that is not necessary to prove (well, not for me anyhow.. you fuck).
 
So maybe next time, stay away on these kinds of affirmation and proposition.

Have a good one'

I guess you are a weasel.  I think that I have proposed largely reasonable terms to attempt to capture where our differences might lay.. to the extent that we have material and potential differences that go beyond mere words (semantics).
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September 26, 2022, 07:01:17 PM


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September 26, 2022, 07:20:58 PM

JJG..

I think we start to annoy the other WO members.

I am convinced that my explanations are clear so no need to write 1 page more on it.

I want to bet, but as a real BTC Hodler gentleman. So with REAL amount, not 100K satoshi, come on... you should be retrograde from "legendary" to "newbies" statut by saying that.   Cheesy

About the odds, i would be agree on :

1/1 : 15K
1/9 : sub 10K. I told you 10%+, i didnt say 25%. so not 1/10 but 1/9. You seem to have a better "edge" as you said between 1.5 to 4.5% for that level.

Give a decent amount to bet please, otherwise it's more than boring.

We can find a middle btw 1 BTC and 0.001 BTC... Don't you have bull balls?  Roll Eyes
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September 26, 2022, 07:28:24 PM

Now Italy has voted for populists in the hope they can do something. That will end it tears, most probably.

They voted for populists because they are tired of voting for elitists.
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September 26, 2022, 07:48:56 PM
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JJG..

I think we start to annoy the other WO members.

I am convinced that my explanations are clear so no need to write 1 page more on it.

I want to bet, but as a real BTC Hodler gentleman. So with REAL amount, not 100K satoshi, come on... you should be retrograde from "legendary" to "newbies" statut by saying that.   Cheesy

About the odds, i would be agree on :

1/1 : 15K
1/9 : sub 10K. I told you 10%+, i didnt say 25%. so not 1/10 but 1/9. You seem to have a better "edge" as you said between 1.5 to 4.5% for that level.

Give a decent amount to bet please, otherwise it's more than boring.

We can find a middle btw 1 BTC and 0.001 BTC... Don't you have bull balls?  Roll Eyes

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September 26, 2022, 07:58:28 PM

I doubt th world is ready for the Giant White Wolf's to show its fangs. Even the Lions would run in this case... But here it comes nontheless... God have mercy on the world.. :S
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September 26, 2022, 07:59:21 PM

JJG..

I think we start to annoy the other WO members.

The purported annoyed ones (to the extent that they actually exist) can fuck off then.. because we are talking about substance.  BTC price moving and tracking at its core.  What else could be more relevant and "of interest" to peeps in these here parts?


I am convinced that my explanations are clear so no need to write 1 page more on it.

Well stick to the offers that are on the table, or make a counter-offer.. Do whatever the fuck you like, but don't tell me what to do.

I want to bet,

If you really wanted to bet you would stick to working out the terms rather than waffling on about bullshit (even if your posts happen to be shorter than mine).

but as a real BTC Hodler gentleman. So with REAL amount, not 100K satoshi, come on...

You see what?  You are harping and focusing on something that I already stated as a limit.. and we have not even worked out other terms of the bet.. you disingenuine fucktwat.. .. so you are coming off as more unwilling to really want to work things out than anything with your ongoing purported desires to focus on this quantity aspect...and by the way, I think that my proposed bet amount is way higher than previous ones that I proposed that would have been in around the $5 equivalency amount.. this one is like 4x higher.. probably due to inflation.. everything costs more these days.. (almost).


you should be retrograde from "legendary" to "newbies" statut by saying that.   Cheesy

Aren't you the most grand of folks... gentlemen.. give me a break.  Didn't the gentlemen in my fair lady bet $1 or something like that?

About the odds, i would be agree on :

1/1 : 15K
1/9 : sub 10K. I told you 10%+, i didnt say 25%. so not 1/10 but 1/9. You seem to have a better "edge" as you said between 1.5 to 4.5% for that level.

I would have to think about it.. We are not just talking about your odds, but the difference between my odds and your odds.. .. so let me think about the sub $10k a bit more in terms of whether I might be wiling to go higher than 1/4 to one and even come close to wanting to do 1/9 to one.. If we do those higher amounts, then probably we would have to bring down the bet size.. .in order to keep it reasonable from my perspective.  Of course, there might be guys who are way more than willing to both give you the odds but also increase the amounts because there are quite a few guys who would likely consider sub $10k to be a lot closer to impossible than my own point of view or my own willing to bet against it... but from my perspective, I will think about that one more.

Give a decent amount to bet please, otherwise it's more than boring.

Look you cannot stop.  What's your fucking problem?  Do you have patience at all?  And like I said if you were somewhat reasonable in working out the terms,
then you never know about some guys maybe wanting to increase the quantity if that is what you are hoping to do.. but no you likely do not give any shits about actually betting with anyone else because you are just playing around with me in terms of a bet that you are not even seriously entertaining beyond whining about it.

In regards to my sub $13k proposal you have not even made any comment(s) on that, yet.

We can find a middle btw 1 BTC and 0.001 BTC... Don't you have bull balls?  Roll Eyes

and again.. ?    You're like a kid in a candy store, and I am thinking:  "I should not have brought this damned kid into this store.. fuck."

JJG..

I think we start to annoy the other WO members.

I am convinced that my explanations are clear so no need to write 1 page more on it.

I want to bet, but as a real BTC Hodler gentleman. So with REAL amount, not 100K satoshi, come on... you should be retrograde from "legendary" to "newbies" statut by saying that.   Cheesy

About the odds, i would be agree on :

1/1 : 15K
1/9 : sub 10K. I told you 10%+, i didnt say 25%. so not 1/10 but 1/9. You seem to have a better "edge" as you said between 1.5 to 4.5% for that level.

Give a decent amount to bet please, otherwise it's more than boring.

We can find a middle btw 1 BTC and 0.001 BTC... Don't you have bull balls?  Roll Eyes


You should get involved in this goldkingcoiner.. You're a betting man.. for sure... even if an "accidental" one who pushes on the wrong buttons and with fat-ass thumbs.. #nohomo.. .hahahahahaha
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September 26, 2022, 08:09:47 PM

Like 10 ppl are reading JJG crap other 10k got him on block 😆
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September 26, 2022, 08:10:05 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (3), cAPSLOCK (1), Hueristic (1), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1), vroom (1), OutOfMemory (1)

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September 26, 2022, 08:20:01 PM

It is FAR too early to say the word "decouple" but...

Nasdaq Down
Dow Down
Gold Down
Silver Down
Oil Down
All currencies but $ and ¥ Down (some crazy down
Bonds PUMPING

Bitcoin... ... UP.
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ha ha...at first I did not get it..
..it is is not as bad in the states (so far), "only" 40-50% increase in my electricity bill, nat gas is still not much in use with temp about 33-34C in H-town.
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September 26, 2022, 09:03:27 PM


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September 26, 2022, 09:05:13 PM

@JJG

-When you are "decided" send me a PM.

- I'm not interested for 13K$ level, that's why i didnt talk about. We can bet for 15K and 10K-

- I will no go below what I proposed for the %

- I don't go too if you just want to bet that small amount. If you reconsider to a higher amount and/or find some 'bet partners" let me know

- I am not a gambler but when someone is swagger (and I have in mind my probabilities) I assume and go in.





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September 26, 2022, 09:52:48 PM

Grayscale Investment’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has dropped to a new low this week as the bitcoin fund tapped a record 35.18% low against bitcoin spot prices. GBTC’s discount to spot has been underwater for a total of 577 consecutive days.


GBTC discount or premium to NAV 3-year chart on September 26, 2022.

https://news.bitcoin.com/grayscales-gbtc-discount-to-nav-breaks-records-as-spread-widens-by-more-than-35/
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September 26, 2022, 09:58:41 PM
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Grayscale Investment’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has dropped to a new low this week as the bitcoin fund tapped a record 35.18% low against bitcoin spot prices. GBTC’s discount to spot has been underwater for a total of 577 consecutive days.


GBTC discount or premium to NAV 3-year chart on September 26, 2022.

https://news.bitcoin.com/grayscales-gbtc-discount-to-nav-breaks-records-as-spread-widens-by-more-than-35/


Bitcoin derivatives are risk encapsulated. 

Sadly I will be dead before everyone else figures this out.  Smart enough to know that, not quite smart enough to profit from it as greatly as I could have.  Such is the way of life..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYocJ1Xhzk4
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September 26, 2022, 10:04:50 PM


Explanation
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September 26, 2022, 10:14:12 PM

Like 10 ppl are reading JJG crap other 10k got him on block 😆

And?  Do you have a point?

@JJG
-When you are "decided" send me a PM.

I doubt that we are even close to deciding.  I will post anything here.. and of course, I could send you a reminder of my post if there might be a counter-offer, but I really don't see much if any need to take any of this discussion off-line except maybe to remind you in the event that I might have decided to make any counter-offer beyond anything that I have already been mentioning.

- I'm not interested for 13K$ level, that's why i didnt talk about. We can bet for 15K and 10K-

$15k we might be close.  Perhaps?  I cannot really tell for sure with your dickering around about quantity that you would like to bet.

You also did not mention anything in regards to my attempt to frame your absolutist assertions in regards to our current local low of $17,593 into a bet.  You said that it was "obviously" in some kind of a contention and I had proposed giving me 20/1 odds based on that kind of an assertion, but still we would have to clarify what you meant by that - because those kinds of strong statements do potentially become bettable. 

- I will no go below what I proposed for the %

I am not sure what you mean, here.. I suppose that you are talking about $10k as a 9/1 odds kind of a bet.

- I don't go too if you just want to bet that small amount. If you reconsider to a higher amount and/or find some 'bet partners" let me know

That would be a deal breaker from my end then since I already stated it and you seem to being a bit of an ass about the whole matter, from my perspective.

I am not looking for any bet partners you fuck.. and we are posting these matters in a public thread so anyone can chime in if they want or if they think there might be something that they are willing to bet or propose as a bet based on our discussion of the matter so far.

- I am not a gambler but when someone is swagger (and I have in mind my probabilities) I assume and go in.

I would proclaim that you are the one who came in here with swagger that you have shown that you are not willing to back up.. so your behavior up until now is not really convincing me otherwise.. .. so perhaps we can agree do disagree regarding who we might believe is the one with high levels of swagger.
 
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September 26, 2022, 10:25:23 PM
Last edit: September 26, 2022, 10:44:57 PM by Arriemoller

Now Italy has voted for populists in the hope they can do something. That will end it tears, most probably.

You can't blame them. If they vote for populists, it means they're desperate and not sure they'll be able to pay their bills. They're fed up with their government and want change. I know that sounds childish and naive like a poor person going to a casino and going all in but you can't judge them.  Cool

Sorry, wrong one.

Here's the right link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POaQStW1Cto
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September 26, 2022, 10:30:02 PM

Grayscale Investment’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has dropped to a new low this week as the bitcoin fund tapped a record 35.18% low against bitcoin spot prices. GBTC’s discount to spot has been underwater for a total of 577 consecutive days.


GBTC discount or premium to NAV 3-year chart on September 26, 2022.

https://news.bitcoin.com/grayscales-gbtc-discount-to-nav-breaks-records-as-spread-widens-by-more-than-35/


It's becoming quite scandalous, considering that Barry is still collecting his 2% on a yearly basis.
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