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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26364765 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 25, 2024, 06:50:11 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2), Toxic2040 (1)

^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):

FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).

Who is calling the kettle black?

I have no problem with the idea of having an extra tax cushion, but you are still not getting to the essential question regarding any kind of BTC valuation plan that presumes mostly holding the BTC rather than selling it all.

We are not selling all of our BTC, even though we are using our BTC to figure out when we reach entry-level fuck you status.

Sure another thing is that we likely have other assets, but if the only thing that we have is bitcoin and cash then surely we can add in some extra for taxes or other expenses, but if we might be considering withdrawing from $2million at the traditional rates of 4% per year which would be $6,666 per month, then yeah we would have to figure out our tax consequences in the event that might be gross rather than net withdrawal.. I think that many of my presumptions is that we are referring to gross rather than net... but I also think that if you are using 4% as your withdrawal rate then you are likely in a very conservative withdrawal mode and either your BTC can grow a lot more or you could actually withdraw way more than your what you perceive to be your budget since you would only be withdrawing 4%, but the dollar value is much more, even right now it would be close to $11k per month rather than $6,666, since the BTC spot price is 63% above the 200-WMA (using 64 BTC as the current default entry-level fuck you status).

You can see it your lil selfie right here by plugging in the numbers. 

If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for).

You are not following.

You are using spot price rather than 200-WMA, like me

And alternatively, you are not using AlcoHoDL's 5x spot price system.. which seems to currently be right around 145 BTC based on the last ATH price of $69k and using $10million as entry-level fuck you status.

Neither of us were suggesting to use BTC spot price to figure out entry-level fuck you status or even to be planning to sell very large portions of our cornz.. as you seem to be suggesting to cash it all out. and then what? suffer with $2million dollars... who the fuck got into bitcoin in order to put it all into dollars?  Yeah, sure there are guys out there who are wanting to do that, but that's not what either AlcoHoDL or I had been getting at..and maybe that's why it is seeming to be overly complicated from your spot price focused perspective.

Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).

I am not sure what you are getting at, but yeah selling 81 BTC would get you right around $4.15 million in dollars (gross before taxes), but who is wanting to do that? even if any of us were to have 81 BTC.

Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.

I am not sure how looking at spot fixes anything, especially if we are not cashing out of our BTC from here.  But, hey do what you like.

The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake  Cheesy.

Of course we sell at spot, and so that could be put in our budget if we might aim for selling a certain amount of bitcoin at certain prices, and that may well be a different strategy to pull out some BTC at various prices versus if we were going to do it in a regular and sustainable way, and I am not even saying that one is better than the other, but they have differing frameworks in terms of how to treat your holdings.

If we were going to do the lump sum sale, then yeah, we could do that as a kind of raking technique (something like this) rather than a monthly way of thinking about BTC withdrawals.

[edited out]
In some sense, all our efforts to predict Bitcoin's value and future status could be moot,

Well one thing could be deciding when to pull the fuck you lever..

And, then the other thing is continuing to make it work while you are in it, and I would hope that we have assets or income sources other than BTC, but that could be part of the reason that we might want to have something like $10 million to serve as our entry-level fuck you status rather than $2 million, even though we might consider $2 million as enough to maintain our standard of living....

Anyone is going to have this as a bit of a dilemma.. because no one is really going to want to end up having to go back to work because he pulled the fuck you status too soon, and then if he is out of work for a few years, he might have trouble getting back into his previous field.. without taking a large pay cut or having to endure a lot more training or whatever.

when we consider the possibility of Bitcoin eventually dominating the entire world monetary system, thus confirming the "0.21 BTC is enough" YouTube video recommendations, which used to be "2.1 BTC is enough", or "21 BTC is enough", a.k.a. One in a Million, if you go way back. Notice how the "sufficient" BTC amount is divided by 10 (an order of magnitude) as we move into the future.

As many WOers would say: 1 BTC = 1 BTC. Just make sure you own some.

Of course, we know that the number of BTC required to reach fuck you status has been ongoingly dropping, and there is nothing really indicating that the trend is going to stop.. so if we have enough of a cushion then we should be good... but at the same time in terms of this thread, there are going to be guys working up to the levels in which they measure their entrance to fuck you status.. and so the same questions regarding how many is enough.. and even though I am saying that 64 is enough right now for the default entry level fuck you status, it is going to take a few years before 21 is going to be enough... right around late 2028, the way it is looking from the fuck you status chart.. that is also very much an estimate that may or may not be accurate.. but we see the trend, I think that there is some reason to have some kind of quasi- (or semi- as you say).. reliance on some of these kinds of formulas, absent some on the ground changes in facts and/or theory that would end up changing our wannabe sorcerer attempts at predictions.

[edited out]
Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount.

Just saying...

I also think that once you get to the amount, you may well be able to structure it so that it is still growing with inflation, as long as you have a solid cushion and/or plan which it seems that both you (AlcoHoDL) and I have attempted to account for ongoing BTC volatility so our entry level fuck you status numbers have a lot of cushion and are likely to continue to grow our pots  in order to account for worldly uncertainties... and sometimes we might even figure out that we are too conservative, but that's o.k. as long as we don't end up dying with too much of our wealth (more than we want to have at that point).
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February 25, 2024, 06:59:24 PM

^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):

FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).

If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).

Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake  Cheesy.

Well, each one is different. In the end, whatever suits each one of us is the best strategy.

As for selling, are you sure you want to park $2M of fiat in a bank account in one sell? Don't you want to shave off small amounts from your stash as and when required?

A "buy when you can, sell when you must" approach.

Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount.

Just saying...

Well, according to the canon, and by that I mean this
video clip from The "Gambler"
....you need a roof over your head (preferably a new one) and 2 mil in the bank, but "in the bank" could be a money market fund, of course.

2 mil is now on the low side, though, I might say. The "new" number is probably around 5 mil (about 100btc, currently).
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Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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February 25, 2024, 07:13:34 PM

^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):

FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).

Who is calling the kettle black?

I have no problem with the idea of having an extra tax cushion, but you are still not getting to the essential question regarding any kind of BTC valuation plan that presumes mostly holding the BTC rather than selling it all.

We are not selling all of our BTC, even though we are using our BTC to figure out when we reach entry-level fuck you status.

Sure another thing is that we likely have other assets, but if the only thing that we have is bitcoin and cash then surely we can add in some extra for taxes or other expenses, but if we might be considering withdrawing from $2million at the traditional rates of 4% per year which would be $6,666 per month, then yeah we would have to figure out our tax consequences in the event that might be gross rather than net withdrawal.. I think that many of my presumptions is that we are referring to gross rather than net... but I also think that if you are using 4% as your withdrawal rate then you are likely in a very conservative withdrawal mode and either your BTC can grow a lot more or you could actually withdraw way more than your what you perceive to be your budget since you would only be withdrawing 4%, but the dollar value is much more, even right now it would be close to $11k per month rather than $6,666, since the BTC spot price is 63% above the 200-WMA (using 64 BTC as the current default entry-level fuck you status).

You can see it your lil selfie right here by plugging in the numbers.  

If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for).

You are not following.

You are using spot price rather than 200-WMA, like me

And alternatively, you are not using AlcoHoDL's 5x spot price system.. which seems to currently be right around 145 BTC based on the last ATH price of $69k and using $10million as entry-level fuck you status.

Neither of us were suggesting to use BTC spot price to figure out entry-level fuck you status or even to be planning to sell very large portions of our cornz.. as you seem to be suggesting to cash it all out. and then what? suffer with $2million dollars... who the fuck got into bitcoin in order to put it all into dollars?  Yeah, sure there are guys out there who are wanting to do that, but that's not what either AlcoHoDL or I had been getting at..and maybe that's why it is seeming to be overly complicated from your spot price focused perspective.

Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).

I am not sure what you are getting at, but yeah selling 81 BTC would get you right around $4.15 million in dollars (gross before taxes), but who is wanting to do that? even if any of us were to have 81 BTC.

Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.

I am not sure how looking at spot fixes anything, especially if we are not cashing out of our BTC from here.  But, hey do what you like.

The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake  Cheesy.

Of course we sell at spot, and so that could be put in our budget if we might aim for selling a certain amount of bitcoin at certain prices, and that may well be a different strategy to pull out some BTC at various prices versus if we were going to do it in a regular and sustainable way, and I am not even saying that one is better than the other, but they have differing frameworks in terms of how to treat your holdings.

If we were going to do the lump sum sale, then yeah, we could do that as a kind of raking technique (something like this) rather than a monthly way of thinking about BTC withdrawals.


200 wma is useful from a trend observation perspective, but absolutely meaningless as a measure of your current liquid wealth.
Say, tomorrow, something incredibly bad or good happens and bitcoin is at 20K or 100K.
Would you still think that your "wealth" in bitcoin is at 31K(200wma)X(your number of bitcoins)?
Of course not, I hope, as you should mark to market and not some imaginary lagging number.
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February 25, 2024, 07:21:50 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1), Toxic2040 (1)

~snip
Since you made an artsy-fartsy-feedback statement, I feel inclined to do the same.

I would like both green and red, and I would also like less redundancy.  In other words I do not like the repetition of 2013 and 2024, so if there are going to be 4 edges to the star, then 2013 and 2024 on two of the edges seems appropriate... but then what could go on the other edges?  maybe just blank green?.. or alternating green and red...

but the text cannot be the same. unless there is a green 2013 and a red 2013 and the same would be true for the 2024.. but that still seems redundant in terms of substantive content. .. every 4 years, would be 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025, but then it would be a future star that anticipates the what's going to come.. something about wannabe sorcerer.

~snip


~snip

It looks like, in part, you already anticipated some aspect of my thinking about the colors. but they probably still would be good to incorporate just the green and the red.. .. yet I am no where near to a "real" artist.




 I guess it does look a little more relevant to the thread this way but if it were Thursday, I would have made it even more relevant with some choice words on the now-empty axis.

#no homo
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February 25, 2024, 07:50:47 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1)

[edited out]
200 wma is useful from a trend observation perspective, but absolutely meaningless as a measure of your current liquid wealth.

It is not meaningless.  It is a way to measure the bottom, so that you may well be able to attempt to make plans about it.

Yes, you can also use BTC spot price, yet do we need to argue about how crazy it fluctuates?

In the end, there are likely a variety of ways to establish a cushion, and if you want to put your default entry-level fuck you status at a higher level, then that might be your way of dealing with such volatility, to the extent that you might be keeping most of your value in BTC rather than cashing out when you reach such perceived status.

Say, tomorrow, something incredibly bad or good happens and bitcoin is at 20K or 100K.
Would you still think that your "wealth" in bitcoin is at 31K(200wma)X(your number of bitcoins)?

I already have a system to deal with it, and so there is an expectation that BTC prices will generally average above the 200 WMA by around 25% or more, and so yeah every once in a while the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA, but there are still presumptions about that not holdings.. unless something changes, and the incredibly good news has already happened so the BTC price is already expected to go up to $100k, it is just a matter of when rather than placing much if any weight on a timeline.. especially a short timeline...

so yeah, if I don't fight too much with your hypothetical it would be a bit surprising to go up 2x in one day, but not totally outside of expectations and/or BTC historical happenings.. and sometimes going a bit beyond extreme.. and even getting 3.5x in a few months could end up happening, so that takes BTC prices to right around $180k... and I am not even sure if that is outside of possibilities, even though it would likely be quite shocking and cause some extra reactions, but guys like me already have some preparations for those kinds of scenarios.. sure admittedly my sell orders currently ONLY go up to $150k, but I would be able to fairly easily place additional sell orders between $150k and $500k.

Same with going down to $20k, I have buy orders going down to $20k, but I would probably get nervious if the BTC price got down to $30k within a few hours, and I would probably pull my buy orders between $20k and $30k, even though I am ready to let them ride down to $30k without making any adjustments.

So surely there could be a lot of depression if the BTC price goes down and refuses to come back up or goes to zero, and those are not non-zero possibilities, but they are pretty damned close to zero. and so we likely are going to be making our base case plans around more likely scenarios rather than making them around outlier scenarios... so if something is expected to have 1% or 2% odds, then we plan 1% to 2% for those things to happen, and yeah, we are not always going to be right, and there are ways to plan for outside scenarios while still mostly be preparing for the more likely base case scenarios.. and so there are some ways to hedge bets, if you had not realized that.

Of course not, I hope, as you should mark to market and not some imaginary lagging number.

I don't see what purpose your advice is having here?   except maybe an attempt to patronize... since it seems that you should sufficiently understand why a lagging indicator might be preferable  to spot price when it comes to long term investing, but instead you seem to be wanting to argue for the mere sake of it... you can look at both spot price and various kinds of moving averages at the same time, and you can compare those moving averages, and my own system of sustainable withdraw looks at both spot price and 200-WMA in order to make various kinds of assessments for sustainable withdrawal, and any one who is willing to use such tool is free to incorporate those kinds of principles, and it is just a tool that can be considered as an option.. and it might be supplemented by raking tools and other tools, so everyone is responsible for their own valuation ideas and how to act upon such ideas in regards to managing their BTC holdings.

~snip
Since you made an artsy-fartsy-feedback statement, I feel inclined to do the same.

I would like both green and red, and I would also like less redundancy.  In other words I do not like the repetition of 2013 and 2024, so if there are going to be 4 edges to the star, then 2013 and 2024 on two of the edges seems appropriate... but then what could go on the other edges?  maybe just blank green?.. or alternating green and red...

but the text cannot be the same. unless there is a green 2013 and a red 2013 and the same would be true for the 2024.. but that still seems redundant in terms of substantive content. .. every 4 years, would be 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025, but then it would be a future star that anticipates the what's going to come.. something about wannabe sorcerer.
~snip

~snip
It looks like, in part, you already anticipated some aspect of my thinking about the colors. but they probably still would be good to incorporate just the green and the red.. .. yet I am no where near to a "real" artist.

 I guess it does look a little more relevant to the thread this way but if it were Thursday, I would have made it even more relevant with some choice words on the now-empty axis.
#no homo

Ouch!!!!  That would hurt to have something like that.  Thank god it's not Thursday.
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February 25, 2024, 08:03:23 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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February 25, 2024, 08:15:07 PM

~snip
Ouch!!!!  That would hurt to have something like that.  Thank god it's not Thursday.

 Sorry JJG.
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February 25, 2024, 08:16:23 PM
Merited by bitcoinPsycho (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Quiet at The Wall...
What could it possibly mean?
Calm before the storm?

Glass vs. plastic...
Container ain't the problem,
When drinking poison!

Sam Bankman-Fried jailed.
He looks sexy in those pants.
Careful with that soap...

ECB gone nuts,
Claiming that Bitcoin has failed.
How low can they stoop?

Craig Wright on trial.
His White Paper forgery,
Out, animated!

Bored CAM programmer.
Tool paths turned to shurikens!
Katanas are next.

Did you say "crypto"?
Take your Batslap like a man,
Or be gone, you fool!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus


you are getting really good at this...thanks

+7 WOsMerits


---------



~snipped~

... who the fuck got into bitcoin in order to put it all into dollars?

Just saying...


+1 WOsMerit


---------






 I guess it does look a little more relevant to the thread this way but if it were Thursday, I would have made it even more relevant with some choice words on the now-empty axis.

#no homo


+1 WOsMerit


is this the complaint department?  if so do i have to pick a number?   anyway....since 2013 was a UP year....and while we dont know what all of 2024 has yet to bring...it is UP right now...
so i was thinking maybe the GREEN and red should be reversed?  with GREEN highlighting the years instead of red
additionally...the lower left to upper right trend would also be represented 


ok ill shut up now 

-----------

the noon wall report


dyor


D



W

stronghands
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February 25, 2024, 08:29:33 PM

[edited out]
200 wma is useful from a trend observation perspective, but absolutely meaningless as a measure of your current liquid wealth.

It is not meaningless.  It is a way to measure the bottom, so that you may well be able to attempt to make plans about it.

Yes, you can also use BTC spot price, yet do we need to argue about how crazy it fluctuates?

In the end, there are likely a variety of ways to establish a cushion, and if you want to put your default entry-level fuck you status at a higher level, then that might be your way of dealing with such volatility, to the extent that you might be keeping most of your value in BTC rather than cashing out when you reach such perceived status.

Say, tomorrow, something incredibly bad or good happens and bitcoin is at 20K or 100K.
Would you still think that your "wealth" in bitcoin is at 31K(200wma)X(your number of bitcoins)?

I already have a system to deal with it, and so there is an expectation that BTC prices will generally average above the 200 WMA by around 25% or more, and so yeah every once in a while the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA, but there are still presumptions about that not holdings.. unless something changes, and the incredibly good news has already happened so the BTC price is already expected to go up to $100k, it is just a matter of when rather than placing much if any weight on a timeline.. especially a short timeline...

so yeah, if I don't fight too much with your hypothetical it would be a bit surprising to go up 2x in one day, but not totally outside of expectations and/or BTC historical happenings.. and sometimes going a bit beyond extreme.. and even getting 3.5x in a few months could end up happening, so that takes BTC prices to right around $180k... and I am not even sure if that is outside of possibilities, even though it would likely be quite shocking and cause some extra reactions, but guys like me already have some preparations for those kinds of scenarios.. sure admittedly my sell orders currently ONLY go up to $150k, but I would be able to fairly easily place additional sell orders between $150k and $500k.

Same with going down to $20k, I have buy orders going down to $20k, but I would probably get nervious if the BTC price got down to $30k within a few hours, and I would probably pull my buy orders between $20k and $30k, even though I am ready to let them ride down to $30k without making any adjustments.

So surely there could be a lot of depression if the BTC price goes down and refuses to come back up or goes to zero, and those are not non-zero possibilities, but they are pretty damned close to zero. and so we likely are going to be making our base case plans around more likely scenarios rather than making them around outlier scenarios... so if something is expected to have 1% or 2% odds, then we plan 1% to 2% for those things to happen, and yeah, we are not always going to be right, and there are ways to plan for outside scenarios while still mostly be preparing for the more likely base case scenarios.. and so there are some ways to hedge bets, if you had not realized that.

Of course not, I hope, as you should mark to market and not some imaginary lagging number.

I don't see what purpose your advice is having here?   except maybe an attempt to patronize... since it seems that you should sufficiently understand why a lagging indicator might be preferable  to spot price when it comes to long term investing, but instead you seem to be wanting to argue for the mere sake of it... you can look at both spot price and various kinds of moving averages at the same time, and you can compare those moving averages, and my own system of sustainable withdraw looks at both spot price and 200-WMA in order to make various kinds of assessments for sustainable withdrawal, and any one who is willing to use such tool is free to incorporate those kinds of principles, and it is just a tool that can be considered as an option.. and it might be supplemented by raking tools and other tools, so everyone is responsible for their own valuation ideas and how to act upon such ideas in regards to managing their BTC holdings.


The purpose of my post was to convey that in my opinion it is strange to think of 200 wma as a measure of wealth, that's all.
You can design your buy/sell strategy off of that if you want..and you do, but it says almost nothing about your current liquid wealth, that's all or almost all that I had to say in my original post. Talking about 4X or 5X of 200WMA...that's just pure numerology, imho.

If someone wants to DCA-sure, go ahead, but without paying almost any attention to the 200 wma.
In fact, if you want to time it, the play around the good old 50day/200day averages (golden cross or a death cross) is much more valuable.
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February 25, 2024, 09:01:20 PM


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February 25, 2024, 10:03:22 PM


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February 25, 2024, 10:09:01 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)

[edited out]
The purpose of my post was to convey that in my opinion it is strange to think of 200 wma as a measure of wealth, that's all.

You said it, and we disagree.

One thing is measuring the wealth and then another thing is to have various management strategies around that, whether it is just holding your coins, raking small or large portions and/or sustainable withdrawal methods.

How you value your wealth might affect some of the methods/strategies more than other methods of strategies.

Maybe if you are holding for the long term, then you just wait for certain price points to sell some or all of your BTC, then that would be a kind of raking strategy.

Or if you believe you never have to sell any BTC because you will just earn money off of it or use it for collateral, then there is nothing wrong with that strategy, as an alternative to raking and/or sustainable withdrawal..

You can design your buy/sell strategy off of that if you want..and you do, but it says almost nothing about your current liquid wealth, that's all or almost all that I had to say in my original post.

Yes, your wealth and your liquid wealth are going to change based on various changes, and if something is more liquid then you have options to sell or buy more of it, but it does not necessarily mean that you are going to exercise such power, even though by definition the more liquid it is, the more you are able to accomplish such selling relatively quickly  so you can consider the changes in your wealth based on BTC spot price changes and realizing that you can cash out at any time,. but if you are not fucking around in that direction, then it seems better to measure it with something more solid, like the 200-WMA .. .. and you can keep both concepts in mind at the same time, if you want to .. why would it have to be all or nothing... you can even divide your stash in different kinds of ways, including putting in various barriers in order to make parts of your BTC stash less liquid... but if you know that you hold the keys, then you likely will have more power over assuring that you hold the value versus if you hold some (if not all) of your cornz with a 3rd party custodian, and you might even erroneously count the value of those coins the same, which maybe for all intents and purposes they end up being pretty much the same.


Talking about 4X or 5X of 200WMA...that's just pure numerology, imho.

AlcoHoDL was talking about 4x to 5X spot price, so we were not really talking so much about 4x to 5x the 200-WMA, even though the formulas of my sustainable withdrawal system contemplate authorizing higher levels of withdrawal (advance withdrawal) based on how high the spot price is above the 200WMA.  From the website:  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

>>>>>>A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months.<<<<<<

So you see that 400% to 650% above the 200-WMA allows the withdrawal of 23 months in advance.

Each person can choose whether and how to play these kinds of suggested ways to manage your BTC holdings..

If someone wants to DCA-sure, go ahead, but without paying almost any attention to the 200 wma.
In fact, if you want to time it, the play around the good old 50day/200day averages (golden cross or a death cross) is much more valuable.

I think that we are not really talking about BTC accumulation.  That's another story... and we are not talking about trading either.. even though sometimes maintenance and management of holdings can sometimes appear to be similar to trading.... yet I wouldn't consider it in that way.

I think with these kinds of tools and even with AlcoHoDL's presumptions, we are largely talking about managing our holdings and then setting budgets for ourselves to shave off some of our BTC from time to time, and maybe even considering ways to NOT shave off too many cornz at once.

DCA and accumulation is another story. and not completely unrelated, but we have a bit of a presumption that we have already accumulated enough BTC and maybe even more than enough BTC... .

Snd maybe shortly talking about DCA and accumulation, I frequently suggest that newbies attempt to be as aggressive as they can in their BTC accumulation journey without overdoing it, so that could be a combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips, and then once they get to enough BTC accumulation (or even over doing their accumulation levels) then they might have more options, however, if they have ONLY been in bitcoin a short period of time, they might need to allow some time to pass before they are ready to transition into something that might be characterized as maintenance and/or liquidation.. ..

but even before they get to any kind of a strict liquidation phase, they might still need to spend some time in a kind of maintenance stage that might still allow for both accumulation BTC along the way and perhaps liquidate some of the their holdings too, and a maintenance stage might still emphasize on one side or the other (on the accumulation side or on the liquidation side) or maybe it is neutral in which it is trying to maintain some kind of dollar value that is pegged to something  (and might that not be the 200-WMA?), which then we might thereby get back to figuring out valuations and how we might want to peg our value, so if might enter into fuck-you status at a $2 million valuation, then we might allow our valuation to grow and maybe our value floats between $2 million and $4 million in terms of the 200-WMA valuation, and maybe we end up trying to keep our valuation in the middle of that range (meaning keeping our value held in BTC at $3 million in light of the 200-WMA), yet the whole time we might continue to withdrawal on a monthly basis or some other regularity until we keep the BTC value within our preferred range and maybe that ends up being right around $3million like I said, even if we might have had entered at $2 million  .  and, yeah, maybe I am making it too complicated by upwardly adjusting the number and allowing growth of value.. but there might not be any need for the value of the holdings to continue to grow beyond the $2 million entry valuation point,;..

Maybe instead, once the guy considers that he has reached entry-level fuck you status at $2 million, he withdraws in accordance with just trying to keep his 200-WMA valuation right around $2 million on an ongoing basis, and maybe he only gives himself a $100k buffer on either end.  There are all kinds of discretionary choices that guys can make in terms of if they are still wanting their fund to grow while they are withdrawing or if they want to make it stable and then maybe later in life they might start to draw down on principle, especially if they might be considering that their life is coming to an end or other reasons to draw down on principle.

 I am still going to argue that it is way better to be using the 200-WMA rather than spot price for these kinds of longer term maintenance and management of BTC holdings valuations, but if you have some other system that involves BTC spot price that floats your boat, then so be it, yet I don't think that spot price serves very well in that regard, especially in bitcoinlandia from my own perspective and my own presentation of tools that help to navigate BTC valuations and portfolio management in light of 200-WMA valuations that I consider to be much more reliable in order to measure from more or less bottoms rather than tops (or the all over the place of spot price that is inevitable to keep going crazily up and crazily down for the next 10-20 years or longer,

and if the BTC spot price becomes more stable, I might choose adjust my thinking on the topic (though I doubt it.. especially since it is not likely to become more stable in the next 10-20 years so why concede that in advance), otherwise why not stick with some way of valuating dee cornz that we already know (by definition) to be way the fuck more consistent and stable?  which is the 200-WMA. Why do we want to create drama and stress upon ourselves when we have a killer-ass tool that has a lot of power in its usability for anyone who is ready, willing and/or able to learn how to do it.. rather than just whining about what if bitcoin prices go from $50k to $20k and then to $100k in a day.. yeah, and maybe you are arguing my point with your lame-ass example about how the BTC price is all over the place, and the 200-WMA is hardly going to move during that whole process.. It may well just continue to trickle up around $33 per day (currently)...

and yeah, maybe the BIGGEST fear would be that the BTC spot price goes down rather than UP.. because we already have prepared for UP, and if the BTC price goes down to $20k and then just gets stuck there.. then what? We maybe cannot sell any BTC until the BTC price gets back within less than 30% below the 200-WMA.. My tool has formulas to account for those kinds of variables, too.

>>>>A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.<<<<<

If you don't like those suggestions in regards to how to manage your holdings (presumptively already in fuck you status or some variation in which you are already able to do some kind of a sustainable withdrawal of coins), then you can do something else. 

I know that I had already had a portion of my BTC holdings already following some variation of the above formula in late 2022 and early 2023.. and the sales were very small.. and most likely there were other aspects of the budget that were buyig way more than selling.  It is kind of reflected in the hypothetical 21 BTC budget chart posted on this post that might need to be updated at some point.
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February 25, 2024, 10:36:39 PM

📌Germany’s parliament


* OutOfMemory thinking about dozens of german ministers standing in line at the nearest Bitcoin ATM  Cool Cheesy

That somehow doesn't look like the Bundestag to me rather some local parliament, nonetheless your statement suggests the folks there having the smartness to understand BTC.
I doubt that people who think a 360° turn somewhat changes your direction or that there countries hundredthousands of miles away will really understand the basic concept of BTC. Not to mention the economics minister and his unicorn ideas of insolvency...

Ah ya Bljatcoinerista ignoranta fetalis.

You think that they do not "buy" Bljatcoins because they do not understand Bljatkojn.. They do not buy it because they understand FULLY! Not expecting anyone prone to gambling and bljatcoins would understand.. It will have serious negative implications down the line in the timeline. Maybe even affecting your infentile lil being in your lifetime.. not to say what catastrophic effects will it have on your Offsprings.
But carry on. Ignorance is Bliss

EVERYTHING IS CONNECTED.
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February 25, 2024, 10:42:42 PM

Halving in 51 days, little over 7 weeks.  Shocked

Stop your flatlining sideways, buddy.
...

I must say I'm quite happy with flatlining at 50k+ .... as long as we don't dip around halving like every other cycle

Flatlining after an increase like we just had is just the market going into accumulation mode before the next leg up. I still wouldn’t sell here. Even though everyone is expecting a dip, myself included, it isn’t worth the risk of being left out when the god candle hits.

I sold some

 At
48
49
50
51
52

little pieces.

Can now hodl til 60 k

will sell three little pieces then
60k
65k
70k

then hodl past 100k
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February 25, 2024, 11:01:03 PM
Merited by smartcomet (1)

Below is only peripherally related, posting mostly for giggles:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SuccessionTV/comments/k08dbs/five_million_is_a_nightmare/

$5 million is a nightmare ??..a fuzzy logic there, but I understand the thesis:
"too much to keep working on a middle class salary and too little to be completely free as far as your spending is concerned".

Quote
So say you're working a normal $75-150K job, because $5M isn't quite enough for you and your family to live on and you still kinda need to work. It's pretty good, really, because, supplementing judiciously with investment income, you can have some real fun. But...

    1. Your stock portfolio might easily swing up or down the entirety of your annual salary on any given day. An entire year of labor constitutes rounding error. How long do you keep the job?
    2. Your boss is a dick. The company wants you to move. There've been layoffs, so your workload suddenly increases like crazy. The commute's a drag. You know you have $5M in the bank, and your annual salary is rounding error. The phrase "fuck you!" spills easily from your mouth. How long do you keep the job?
    3. Inevitably, you quit, planning to lower overhead and survive on investment income. It works on paper, but then your kid needs braces and a new Macbook comes out and your house kinda needs painting and you have to hire a nurse for your elderly mom because you're too rich to put her in a nursing home. You won't stoically self-deny because you think of yourself as rich. So even if you're not splurging - no garage full of fancy sports cars - your wealth slowly diminishes, making starvation in retirement a real possibility, because you don't have the overhead of a normal person....and overhead is everything. Repeat: overhead is everything.
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February 25, 2024, 11:01:15 PM


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February 25, 2024, 11:14:35 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

I sold some

 At
48
49
50
51
52

little pieces.

so youre the guy i bought from at 49 and 51k lol
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February 25, 2024, 11:52:32 PM

Below is only peripherally related, posting mostly for giggles:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SuccessionTV/comments/k08dbs/five_million_is_a_nightmare/

$5 million is a nightmare ??..a fuzzy logic there, but I understand the thesis:
"too much to keep working on a middle class salary and too little to be completely free as far as your spending is concerned".
Quote
So say you're working a normal $75-150K job, because $5M isn't quite enough for you and your family to live on and you still kinda need to work. It's pretty good, really, because, supplementing judiciously with investment income, you can have some real fun. But...

    1. Your stock portfolio might easily swing up or down the entirety of your annual salary on any given day. An entire year of labor constitutes rounding error. How long do you keep the job?
    2. Your boss is a dick. The company wants you to move. There've been layoffs, so your workload suddenly increases like crazy. The commute's a drag. You know you have $5M in the bank, and your annual salary is rounding error. The phrase "fuck you!" spills easily from your mouth. How long do you keep the job?
    3. Inevitably, you quit, planning to lower overhead and survive on investment income. It works on paper, but then your kid needs braces and a new Macbook comes out and your house kinda needs painting and you have to hire a nurse for your elderly mom because you're too rich to put her in a nursing home. You won't stoically self-deny because you think of yourself as rich. So even if you're not splurging - no garage full of fancy sports cars - your wealth slowly diminishes, making starvation in retirement a real possibility, because you don't have the overhead of a normal person....and overhead is everything. Repeat: overhead is everything.

Maybe just in sum the guy is wrong and does not seem to know what he is talking about since if his expected income is between $75k and $150, then with a 4% withdrawal rate he would ONLY need between $2 million and $4million.

This is how it goes for a 4% withdrawal rate:

$1 million = $3,333 per month and $40k per year

$2 million = $6,666 per month and $80k per year

$3 million = $10k per month and $120k per year

$4 million = $13,333 per month and $160k per year

$5 million = $16,666 per month and $200k per year

If his money is in BTC, with the 200-WMA, he would only need 64 BTC to reach the $2 million and then if he is ONLY withdrawing at 4%, the dollar value of his holdings is likely going to grow faster than his withdrawal of the BTC, so the BTC will keep up with inflation.. but yeah, he would have to have enough BTC in order to start such a process, and if he is in dollars and dollar-related investments, he might need closer to $4million to make sure that his investments keep up... but I doubt that he needs $5million, unless he is trying to cushion for increases in his income.. which surely in terms of dollars we are likely going to need into the future.. so we might have to take that into account if we are exercising a 4% withdrawal rate.
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February 26, 2024, 12:03:25 AM


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