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Question: What happens first:
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<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26365581 times)
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February 25, 2024, 02:37:07 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

Looks well busy
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February 25, 2024, 03:11:04 AM

another sunday
nice and flat at 50k
how long will we stay


Not long enough we should be expecting 60k this next weekend. Those 100 pushups really gonna pump the price 😁
$60k is another price target for next month, feel very confident btc will hit that price
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February 25, 2024, 04:15:02 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)

[edited out]
This is a fair explanation of my approach. After posting my last week's Sunday Haikus, I felt the need to clarify things a little bit, because simply saying "5x spot price" seems a bit misleading to someone who doesn't know the details.

Basically, my approach takes the most recent cycle spot peak price, calculates the BTC needed for $2M fuck you status and multiplies that BTC amount by 5. The resulting BTC amount then stays fixed for 4 years, until the next cycle peak. So, for example, the last spot peak price (@ late-2021) was $69k, so my current f.u. status calculation is as follows:

$2M / $69k = 29 BTC
My current f.u. status: 29 x 5 = 145 BTC (since late-2021 and staying fixed until late-2025)

Assuming an upcoming peak of $200k (likely @ late-2025), my new, updated f.u. status would drop to ($2M / $200k) x 5 = 10 BTC x 5 = 50 BTC (will stay fixed until late-2029).

It's like having a f.u. status threshold of $10M and applying it to the cycle spot peak price, forming a staircase with 4-years per step (similar to PlanB's S2F charts).

That's even more looney than my attempt to summarize it, even though it seems to end up with similar results - except the locking in factor seems it even more unrealistic to attempt to apply, even though surely it may well end up working out because if you have reached the 5x entry-level fuck you status for the peak, then that should mean that you should not go below actual fuck you status, unless the BTC price were to dip below 80% from the ATH... It kind of reminds me of nominal inflation versus real inflation, but maybe I am just having troubles getting it to sink in.

If we use our $100k from earlier, your assertion was that many folks would cross over fuck you status at this point... so that still would be implying a need to have 100 BTC, in terms of your formula.. .. so maybe it is even safer and even more conservative than using the 200-WMA..... and people do have a tendency to want to focus on tops rather than bottoms, so it could actually be appealing in that sense... so maybe I can lighten up to it.?  Perhaps? perhaps?

OTOH, the current f.u. status based on the 200 WMA (currently @ $31k) would be as follows:
$2M / $31k = 65 BTC

The 200 WMA is undoubtedly a more stable, more "math & science" f.u. status estimation approach, but seems a bit over-optimistic to me. As things currently stand, I don't think 65 BTC is a sufficiently realistic f.u. status amount, as compared to 145 BTC which gives me a nice 2x cushion vs. the 200 WMA approach. By the time spot price reaches $200k, the 200 WMA will likely have reached $50k, so there will be a 50 BTC vs. 40 BTC amount for f.u. status at that time, thus making my approach more conservative overall. I know that this comes from my own conservative nature, and I don't claim that my approach is better. It just suits my own conservative style of doing things.

I guess the net sum of your approach seems like it is more conservative if you just look at the last cycle, but I think that if you look more closely at prior cycles, you will find your approach is likely not as conservative as you are making it out to be, even though there is likely a decent amount of appeal that people have to track the ATH rather than the moving averages.. and probably that's what bothers me about any approach that tries to coordinate strategies with tops rather than with bottoms (or at least the 200-WMA reflects an average over 4 years rather than some potentiality that your system might have in terms of getting caught into the waves of ATHs that might cause your ATH tracer to become too optimistic.

Maybe we can do a quick look at the 2017 ATH.. it was $19,666, so based on that, your 5x ATH would require you to have 515 BTC, although back then maybe we would have used $1 million rather than $2 million as our entry-level fuck you status, so we could cut that in half to be 267.5 BTC.

In regards to the 200-WMA, on December 17, 2017, the 200-WMA was ONLY $1,221 (you can plug in the specific dates here), so that would mean that for the 200-WMA it would have taken 1,640 BTC for a $2 million entry-level fuck you status and it would have taken 820 BTC for a $1 million entry-level fuck you status.. so there goes your claim to conservativism, because in 2017, the 200-WMA would have had been more than 3x more conservative than your 5x on the spot price theory... and so yeah, the blow off top of 2017 was way the fuck more explosive than the blow off top of 2021, so if we end up getting a blow off top that is more explosive than 2021, then your 5x spot price theory may well end up being less conservative than using the 200-WMA..

And, yeah, maybe we are quibbling over inconsequentialisms  and so who is going to know for sure the extent to which the blow of top of this cycle is going to be particularly crazy in order to contribute to your system being less conservative than using the 200-WMA.  I am getting more and more tired just thinking about it - because I just have troubles pegging to something like the spot price when the 200-WMA is way more reliable.. and you also have other WMAs that you could do that would bring you closer to spot price but take out some of the extremes.. such as the 100 WMA, the 50-WMA, and the 20-WMA... .. anyhow, I personally find those lower number WMAs to be way more volatile, so that is what makes that 200-WMA to be so dope. and plus if we use the 200-WMA, we are more aligned with our favorite soothsayer wannabe.. namely PlanB.  

Also, if you compare the above with your entry-level fuck you status chart, you will see that our calculations/estimations follow the same trend at the 4-year peak times (145 vs. 112 BTC @ late-2021 and 50 vs. 37 BTC @ late-2025), with my numbers on the more conservative side, and with the major difference that I keep the f.u. status BTC amount fixed between spot peaks, whereas you are reducing it every 6 months. This makes my approach even more conservative as we go deep into each cycle.

Of course in that chart, in reference to the past, it just shows the facts in terms of the specific dates, and I pick every 6 months randomly, since it very well be that the chart could be updated every day to show the slow changes, but I pick 6 months in order to attempt to be somewhat more granular than annual, but not so granular as to get lost in the details, since the data can be updated on a daily basis since currently the 200-WMA is going up about $33 per day, and in the depths of our dip below the 200-WMA in late 2022, it was only going up around $10 per day... so it could get a bit granular to be adding every day, and surely I could add some more columns, or maybe we can create some extra work for you and you can you should show your columns, since I doubt that your idea (or your columns) is (are) going to play out to be as conservative as you think that it will merely because you seem to be tracking from what the ATH did in 2021 rather than going back to earlier ATHs.

So when it comes to my attempts to project the future, I updated my chart a couple of times to attempt to make it more conservative, and surely I may well have over done it in terms of my level of conservatism, especially since we know this particular cycle is inline to potentially have much greater price appreciations and we are even on track to have something in the ballpark of 18%-24% for this particular 6 month period rather than 16%, which would be 36% to 48% annualized rather than 32% annualized, but in my last adjustment to the chart, I wanted to error on the conservative side.. but it still ends up being a projection of the future 200-WMAs that are way less than scientific (so you see I am attempting to project the 200-wma and I am in no fucking way trying to project BTC spot prices, even though spot prices higher than the 200-WMA is built into the assumption that 200-WMAs only go up because spot price goes up), and it just seems way the hell easier to attempt to track the variation in the 200-WMA rather than attempting to track the variation in what the BTC spot price might end up doing in terms of the next ATH or any other place that the BTC spot price will be at any given 6 month snapshot.

And even if someone is already measuring his reaching entry-level fuck you status based on the 200-WMA, it seems that once he is into entry-level fuck you status, then he is in, and even though we have no guarantees that the 200-WMA will continue to stay positive, it seems he is not going to be out, once he is in.. since also, so far the lowest annual rate of increase of the 200-WMA was in the period between June 2022 and November 2023, when it achieved ONLY an annualized increase per year of 20%.. .so that is still pretty damned good and still leaves a lot of cushion for anyone who might be making withdrawals of his BTC once he has determined himself to be in fuck you status.. especially if he is sticking with traditional 4% levels of conservativism, even though I am suggesting 6% to 10% to be sustainable withdrawal rates.

In my own system in which I thereafter suggest authorization levels for withdrawal of your BTC, once you have gotten into fuck you status, there is permission to do full withdrawals as long as the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA, and then there are reductions of the amount that can be withdrawn if the BTC spot price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA.

Maybe we are just quibbling about how secure any guy might feel if he ONLY has the minimum entry-level of fuck you status which is currently 64 BTC, as you mentioned, and from my thinking that seems to be more of a factor of being insecure with $2 million as entry-level fuck you status in terms of if you believe that $6,666 per month is not enough, so if you need $10k per month then so be it, your own personal entry-level fuck you status should be $3 million rather than $2 million... and then if you are questioning whether $3 million is going to keep up with the standard of living, then maybe you are not understanding the charts, if you are withdrawing at 4% per year, but the lowest level of BTC's annualized 200-Week MA has been 20%, and the annualized appreciation is on track to be anywhere between 36% and 44% for this upcoming 6 months, then you seem to be failing and/or refusing to accept and recognize king daddy's actual ongoing power that does not seem to be weakening... there are no real and/or meaningful signs of any such weakening, so you should be able to rely on structuring your own finances around such ongoing averages.

I hope the above text spaghetti makes some sense... Cheesy

It makes some sense, but it still remains troubling for this here cat.
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February 25, 2024, 05:26:01 AM
Last edit: February 25, 2024, 05:36:24 AM by Biodom

^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):

FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).

If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).

Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake  Cheesy.
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February 25, 2024, 07:23:34 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), DirtyKeyboard (1)


A beautiful take on as a shuriken I might not be a lover of green but wouldn't Green be better in place of the red.
Since we like interested in shooting greens.




 The one on the left is an APNG file.  If you can't see the animation, you're probably using any browser but Brave and Firefox.  That's too bad because you get real transparencies and more colours than you can shake a stick at.  GIF is on the right... but the dithered shadows looked terrible and the text became illegible so I removed both... of course the GIF version I've used has been around for 35 years now.  Wonder what Bitcoin will look like in another 20 years?
At first thought was epic but seeing how the colours are changing made it even more epic and exciting. This is indeed is a beautiful work of art. Grin
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February 25, 2024, 07:25:07 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)


[...]

It makes some sense, but it still remains troubling for this here cat.

Thanks for your comments (edited out for brevity, post header links above for details). I know that my approach is "non-standard" and I can assure you that I'm not blindly applying it without looking into the context of the current Bitcoin moves and developments. This is just a fun experiment for me, to see how things play out, based on different metrics that we devise and compare with. As I've stated numerous times, the 200 WMA is my favorite indicator as far as the overall trend is concerned, and will likely continue to be, unless some extreme event happens, which completely invalidates the status quo (a.k.a. Bitcoin cycle periodicity and the happenings within each period). The new ETF players, increased adoption and regulation, as well as the reduced production or new coins due to the halvings, could affect said periodicity and what it entails, in semi-unforeseeable ways.

IOW, there's no such thing as a Crystal BallTM, but there is math & science (hence the "semi-" above).

Re. the 2017 cycle peak, my f.u. status requirement was 509 BTC vs. 1658 BTC (using 200 WMA), which does break my conservative claim, and this can also be deduced by considering the difference between spot peak and 200 WMA, which was around 16x at that time (compare this with my approach's fixed 5x cushion). The main difference is that my 5x cushion stays fixed, whereas the difference between spot peak and 200 WMA tends to get reduced after each cycle, thus reducing the cushion and making my approach more conservative as we go into the future.

As for f.u. status, many of us have achieved it, or not, depending on the chosen metric, as well as country of residence, desired standard of living, LHB wants/needs, etc. The more conservative the metric (even if it is non-standard, inaccurate, or even looney, as you put it), the more secure one's f.u. status becomes. I wouldn't want to have my standard of living (assuming it is, or will soon be, mostly Bitcoin-dependent) be based on some borderline f.u. status predictor, which could fail whenever Warren Buffett decides to say something wise of whenever some curly-haired, crazy CEO decides to go Bernie Madoff on his customers. Not saying the 200 WMA is a borderline f.u. status predictor, just talking generally here.

In some sense, all our efforts to predict Bitcoin's value and future status could be moot, when we consider the possibility of Bitcoin eventually dominating the entire world monetary system, thus confirming the "0.21 BTC is enough" YouTube video recommendations, which used to be "2.1 BTC is enough", or "21 BTC is enough", a.k.a. One in a Million, if you go way back. Notice how the "sufficient" BTC amount is divided by 10 (an order of magnitude) as we move into the future.

As many WOers would say: 1 BTC = 1 BTC. Just make sure you own some.
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February 25, 2024, 07:48:34 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):

FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).

If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).

Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake  Cheesy.

Well, each one is different. In the end, whatever suits each one of us is the best strategy.

As for selling, are you sure you want to park $2M of fiat in a bank account in one sell? Don't you want to shave off small amounts from your stash as and when required?

A "buy when you can, sell when you must" approach.

Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount.

Just saying...
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February 25, 2024, 07:49:09 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

Nice, gradual rise towards $52k I see. 15-min chart looks beautiful.

Weather is brilliant, almost like summer.
Going out to enjoy a few km of running.

I hope I see green when I'm back.
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February 25, 2024, 07:54:58 AM

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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February 25, 2024, 08:57:13 AM

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* OutOfMemory thinking about dozens of german ministers standing in line at the nearest Bitcoin ATM  Cool Cheesy
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