Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Sometimes I think there should be a newbie admission test in order to be able to post here. Maybe it's just me...

That would be a great thing…

The WO should be protected a bit indeed.
It’s surely the most exciting long going thread on the forum and should have only respected people at it.
Like a kind of lock on it only people with at least  X-rank or something should be able to speak in here….

That would be something.

A man can dream. Something like minimum 500 activity, or is it too tight? 365? Or at the very least, Sr. Member rank maybe? Anything reasonable would do, as long as we are spared the noise. Most of us are certified shitposters and already make enough noise on our own. Besides, there is style even when shitposting. Or maybe anyone could post, as it is today, but merit in this thread could only be awarded to more seasoned members. There are people here suffering daily with ignore lists too long to show in a reasonable time. What do you think?

And could @infofront help with setting up such a filter?

[vapourminer]

Sometimes I think there should be a newbie admission test in order to be able to post here. Maybe it's just me...

That would be a great thing…

The WO should be protected a bit indeed.
It’s surely the most exciting long going thread on the forum and should have only respected people at it.
Like a kind of lock on it only people with at least  X-rank or something should be able to speak in here….

That would be something.

as the saying goes:

"You merely adopted the dark, I was born in it."



ok.. well something like that anyway

[Lucius]

witnessing post once more of low coins on exchanges and supplyshock incoming

will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

I don't know if there is any way to estimate the liquidity of the largest CEXs, but given that the influence of miners has become minimal and that ETFs buy far more than CEXs can replace, it is obvious that at some point there must be a supplyshock. However, somehow I have the feeling that there are still too many BTC on the market and that considering the price, the quantities being bought are no longer as large as before.

In addition, we still have about 1 million unmined BTC, of ​​which just under 800 000 will be mined in the next 5-6 years, and the last 210 000 will remain for the next 100+ years. I may be wrong, but it seems to me that only then could we see real supplyshocks - unless central banks enter the game and start buying like drunk billionaires.

By the way, considering that most spot BTC ETFs use the custodial service of a well-known CEX, all these coins actually just move from one wallet to another, but remain in the possession of one and the same company.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Quiet weekend until now. Price stationary, volume vanishing. So the activity in the last two days was likely the work of institutional actors (ETFs more than treasury companies is my estimate) positioning in view of what's next.

EDIT On Bitstamp at least, there has been a surge in trades around this time, give or take 1 hour, for the last few days. The surge appears to show its head today too, although muted. It's the weekend after all. Still not much retail buying IMHO.

[xhomerx10]

Anybody selling at $150,000 ore below should be arrested.


X

 Over the years, it never seemed to matter what price I thought about selling or actually sold a few sats, I always gelt foolish or regretted it.   The first time was when I bought a $100 Timmy's gift card when Bitcoin price was around US$600.  I bought the sats back the next day with fiat.  The next time, I was waiting for a flight and I read China banned Bitcoin (first time)... I bought them back while sitting in the plane waiting for it to pull away from the jet bridge - that was probably the stupidest thing I did with some of my bitcoin... I really thought, for a short while, that would be the end of Bitcoin but then I remembered I had told myself moon or zero and we weren't close to either.  It had tanked so hard that I still made a few sats on the bounce but it wasn't my intention to be a day trader. I think that event really solidified the hodler mentality in me.

[Gachapin]

That leaves me with the conclusion that 150k is a good point to sell if you expect to buy back lower..

I'm terrible at timing the market, so I gave up a long time ago.

yeah me too. Every time I sold a bunch I regretted it afterwards.

You really should only sell when you must... not to buy back lower..

however the long bear markets teached me that there are times when you really can't sell so I want to prepare a 4-5 year fiat cushion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Franklyn-wood]

MARA Holdings produced 736 Bitcoin in September 2025, bringing its total holdings to 52,850 BTC. The company won 218 blocks during the month, despite a rising global hashrate for #Bitcoin.
[img height=501]https
https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1974444393374560413?t=_fy6MKVknd_gAGeYNfZC3g&s=19

They should continue to hold and get there mining tools ready for work.
It is an interesting innovation to know. Altcoins projects want to make more money from mining Bitcoin because they know that Bitcoin is the ultimate. That is why I laughed when I see altcoins communities trying to compare themselves to Bitcoin. That could be horrible without a word.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Quiet weekend until now. Price stationary, volume vanishing. So the activity in the last two days was likely the work of institutional actors (ETFs more than treasury companies is my estimate) positioning in view of what's next.

EDIT On Bitstamp at least, there has been a surge in trades around this time, give or take 1 hour, for the last few days. The surge appears to show its head today too, although muted. It's the weekend after all. Still not much retail buying IMHO.

@d_eddie - I think you're right about the activity of the last two days being related to ETFs (and not just because I'm a proponent of investing in spot Bitcoin ETFs).

I suspect the U.S. stock market being open only Monday thru Friday when investors can buy spot Bitcoin ETFs (and not on weekends) is the likely reason for the strong interest in Bitcoin that helps drive both the higher volume and higher price.  

[BTCETFInvestor]

witnessing post once more of low coins on exchanges and supplyshock incoming

will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

I think we’re just witnessing coins being moved to the ETFs.

@OgNasty - Agree!

I think a lot of investors like myself are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs, 'IBIT' and 'FBTC', which Blackrock and Fidelity must buy Bitcoin to cover - and either self-custody the Bitcoin like Fidelity does or use Coinbase and Anchorage for custody like Blackrock does.  

[Gachapin]

I was going through Tiktok and I saw video of children from Gaza walking bear footed inside the scotching sun with no food or shelter.
I know some of you will admit that they deserves this unbearable conditions. This is total inhuman and against human right and freedom.
Israel should allow humanitarian support for Gaza. I am neither a Muslim nor live in Arab but this is so pathetic!

Spain, China and Italy planned massive aid for Gaza.

most of the money that's sent to Gaza goes directly to their leaders and makes them billionaires... They don't care if their own people die, apart from the convenience that they can use their dead for getting even more money to fill their pockets....

[Gachapin]

witnessing post once more of low coins on exchanges and supplyshock incoming

will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

supply shock is a myth imo

there is always somebody willing to sell after a 10-20% run.

Ask all the people here who are waiting for 140k-.150k to get rid of their coins

[Gachapin]

Sometimes I think there should be a newbie admission test in order to be able to post here. Maybe it's just me...

That would be a great thing…

The WO should be protected a bit indeed.
It’s surely the most exciting long going thread on the forum and should have only respected people at it.
Like a kind of lock on it only people with at least  X-rank or something should be able to speak in here….

That would be something.

A man can dream. Something like minimum 500 activity, or is it too tight? 365? Or at the very least, Sr. Member rank maybe? Anything reasonable would do, as long as we are spared the noise. Most of us are certified shitposters and already make enough noise on our own. Besides, there is style even when shitposting. Or maybe anyone could post, as it is today, but merit in this thread could only be awarded to more seasoned members. There are people here suffering daily with ignore lists too long to show in a reasonable time. What do you think?

And could @infofront help with setting up such a filter?

I'm all for a merit beggar filter !!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

witnessing post once more of low coins on exchanges and supplyshock incoming
will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

supply shock is a myth imo
there is always somebody willing to sell after a 10-20% run.

Until they only have peanuts to sell.

Ask all the people here who are waiting for 140k-.150k to get rid of their coins

Hey, people here who are waiting for .14 - .15! I'm talking to you.

Are you selling it all, or do you plan to keep a little? Like 10%? Or 20%? Or maybe you're keeping half just in case?

TL;DR: Worst case? I see exponential (slow) decay in hodler reserves ready to go on sale. But probably, the fraction of the remaining stash that gets sold as btc appreciates goes down with time (sub-exponential, slower).

[BobLawblaw]

Bah. Maybe next week...

Have a great weekend, folks.

Got a feeling in muh plums we're gunna see $125k USD/BTC today. 🤞🏻

[d_eddie]

will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

the influence of miners has become minimal
ETFs buy far more than CEXs can replace
it is obvious that at some point there must be a supplyshock.
However, there are still too many BTC on the market
considering the price, the quantities being bought are no longer as large as before.

Besides, most of these trades happen OTC, so they don't move the price as much. To feel the supply shock, we need to have retail FOMOing in and finding out there are no more cornz to be bought on the open market.

Wen FOMO? Wen supply shock? Wen moon, wen lambo?
We'll know soon enough if 2025 is the year.

[Gachapin]

witnessing post once more of low coins on exchanges and supplyshock incoming
will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

supply shock is a myth imo
there is always somebody willing to sell after a 10-20% run.

Until they only have peanuts to sell.

somebody other has bought in the meantime and becomes the next seller... it's a never ending game

Ask all the people here who are waiting for 140k-.150k to get rid of their coins

Hey, people here who are waiting for .14 - .15! I'm talking to you.

Are you selling it all, or do you plan to keep a little? Like 10%? Or 20%? Or maybe you're keeping half just in case?

TL;DR: Worst case? I see exponential (slow) decay in hodler reserves ready to go on sale. But probably, the fraction of the remaining stash that gets sold as btc appreciates goes down with time (sub-exponential, slower).

see above

btw I think nobody in the WO will sell his whole stash at 140k-150k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com