Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Parazyd]

small correction happening?

Looks like a crash to 0. It's all over now

Oh my! Let's all sell!

[arepo]

OK Here's my take on a 3 month time frame (got both the bears and bull covered):

(img snip)

Personally the price action around the 900 level will be very telling for me...

since the top of your channel is determined only by the slope of the bottom line, which is solely determined by two points of data (both of which are extremes and which qualify as outliers), i'm not sure how robust this model is. the possible confounding scenarios are as follows:

scenario 1 (bearish, dark grey, less deviant, more likely): the deviance of the outliers caused you to underestimate the slope of the channel, and this consolidation is a decision point where we may either correct downward or break through.

scenario 2 (bullish, light grey, more deviant, less likely): the deviance of the outliers caused you to underestimate the slope of the channel, and this latest price action is a bullish breakout.



http://s16.postimg.org/un1muboz9/channel.png

===

regardless, always stress test your models!

interesting -- the price action seems to suggest that scenario 2 was correct after all...

--arepo

[granathus]

I've heard that before. I've burnt on that before as well.

I'll soon see if my experience of the past half-a-year re price fluctuations will pay off, or if I am going to buy back in at an even bigger loss. If so, then my final goal will be even more difficult to achieve.

What is your final goal?

300

EDIT: That said, there is no such thing as "too many bitcoins"

True that. I wish I had 300. But i am happy with where I am at.

Oh, talking about stash size, I logged into slush pool yesterday, just to check if I had left something there. Haven't mined there since may. Nothing was left, but when I checked my stats I realized I had actually found a block during my few weeks there. Pretty insane considering I mined with a 5850 gpu. 25 btc... While my total payout was something like 0.2. Could it be the universe telling me to roll the dice more and don't play safe? Maybe I should sell my entire stash now and trust the siren song of the bears?

Nah. I'm gonna hodl.  

[pdawg]

This overnight move has legs.   We are in a major resistance zone though price action hasn't indicated it's respecting that yet.  We are also running into upper channel lines so we may have some consolidation in this area before moving higher

[rezurect]

TA Gods don't seem to have reign in Bitcoinland as much as they'd want.
Maybe more Followers and more Prayers would help.

For now: Trains, Choo Choos, Moon, Bear and Bull, Hodl pics rule

[Cablez]

That left train is totally 'moon train' (tm).

[T.Stuart]

This overnight move has legs.   We are in a major resistance zone though price action hasn't indicated it's respecting that yet.  We are also running into upper channel lines so we may have some consolidation in this area before moving higher

Consolidation? Fine. I would even recommend it while we get our breath back for next week.

[600watt]

choo choo....

[JorgeStolfi]

What a blunder would that be. First buying at the top and then following that up by selling at breakeven just before the price goes way higher. People contemplating this should probably disallow themselves to sell ANYTHING within a year of buying it (although for non-crypto assets they should probably up that to 2 years).

Yes, some of those buyers may believe that the price will rise above 1200 "soon" and hold on to their coins. But if "soon" may be 1 year, it may also be  5 years, or never. Some of those buyers may prefer smaller but safer gains; some may have to repay loans or buy a car to replace the one they sold...

The point is that there may be as many as ~500 kBTC (from all exchanges) off the books, waiting for bids to build up in the 900-1200 range.

[adamstgBit]

This overnight move has legs.   We are in a major resistance zone though price action hasn't indicated it's respecting that yet.  We are also running into upper channel lines so we may have some consolidation in this area before moving higher

Consolidation? Fine. I would even recommend it while we get our breath back for next week.

too me, Consolidation appears to be over already

It would seem the first bottom catch was successful, we are now back on track to the moon !

I mean in a longer term view..

short term, of course we will have some consolidation before moving higher, every time the price spikes up

[StarenseN]

Dring Dring, to the grocery !

[JorgeStolfi]

There is buying 10-20 coins each 5 minutes or so, and it has been going on for half a day. Seems quite regular, could be someone trying to buy in while moving the price as little as possible. Mtgox-

Isn't that the ping-pong I mentioned earlier? My guess is that it is a trading robot that sells to itself, alternating between two prices that increase 1-2 USD every few minutes. Has been going on since 2013-12-30 with a few interruptions.

[pdawg]

Here's a 15 min snapshot:

[adnanabbas]

I know no one can really say, but will it be safe to even buy at lets say 850

[adamstgBit]

I know no one can really say, but will it be safe to even buy at lets say 850

it wasn't safe to buy bitcoins at 0.75$

buying bitcoins isn't safe period the end.

its high risk high reward at all times.

the day its no longer risky is the day its no longer worth hodling

[wachtwoord]

I know no one can really say, but will it be safe to even buy at lets say 850

Define safe. Can it go down? Yes.

[TheCoinBull]

I know no one can really say, but will it be safe to even buy at lets say 850

Bad idea prices will be falling over the weekend, have just began, prices will continue to rise come monday. Sell Friday, buy Monday, one of my personal bitcoin favorites

[pdawg]

I would look for a relative volume spike when BTC is in a pullback around the level you are looking to enter.  Bottoms, both short term and long term are marked by relative volume spikes.  IS this always the case?  No, but it can help identify support at a certain level.

[TheCoinBull]

Your average sheep has a wife and kids and will be busy this weekend taking down xmas lights

[TheCoinBull]

Just gained 2 more lite coins ohh yay